Favipiravir induces HuNoV viral mutagenesis and infectivity loss with clinical improvement in immunocompromised patients.

Chronic human norovirus (HuNoV) infections in immunocompromised patients result in severe disease, yet approved antivirals are lacking. RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) inhibitors inducing viral mutagenesis display broad-spectrum in vitro antiviral activity, but clinical efficacy in HuNoV infections is anecdotal and the potential emergence of drug-resistant variants is concerning. Upon favipiravir (and nitazoxanide) treatment of four immunocompromised patients with life-threatening HuNoV infections, viral whole-genome sequencing showed accumulation of favipiravir-induced mutations which coincided with clinical improvement although treatment failed to clear HuNoV. Infection of zebrafish larvae demonstrated drug-associated loss of viral infectivity and favipiravir treatment showed efficacy despite occurrence of RdRp variants potentially causing favipiravir resistance. This indicates that within-host resistance evolution did not reverse loss of viral fitness caused by genome-wide accumulation of sequence changes. This off-label approach supports the use of mutagenic antivirals for treating prolonged RNA viral infections and further informs the debate surrounding their impact on virus evolution.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low-frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is partially maintained among repeated serial samples from the same host, it can transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

During an infectious disease outbreak, tracing who infected whom allows public health scientists to see how a pathogen is spreading and to establish effective control measures. Traditionally, this involves identifying the individuals an infected person comes into contact with and monitoring whether they also become unwell. However, this information is not always available and can be inaccurate. One alternative is to track the genetic data of pathogens as they spread. Over time, pathogens accumulate mutations in their genes that can be used to distinguish them from one another. Genetically similar pathogens are more likely to have spread during the same outbreak, while genetically dissimilar pathogens may have come from different outbreaks. However, there are limitations to this approach. For example, some pathogens accumulate genetic mutations very slowly and may not change enough during an outbreak to be distinguishable from one another. Additionally, some pathogens can spread rapidly, leaving less time for mutations to occur between transmission events. To overcome these challenges, Torres Ortiz et al. developed a more sensitive approach to pathogen genetic testing that took advantage of the multiple pathogen populations that often coexist in an infected patient. Rather than tracking only the most dominant genetic version of the pathogen, this method also looked at the less dominant ones. Torres Ortiz et al. performed genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) samples from 451 healthcare workers, patients, and patient contacts at participating London hospitals. Analysis showed that it was possible to detect multiple genetic populations of the virus within individual patients. These subpopulations were often more similar in patients that had been in contact with one another than in those that had not. Tracking the genetic data of all viral populations enabled Torres Ortiz et al. to trace transmission more accurately than if only the dominant population was used. More accurate genetic tracing could help public health scientists better track pathogen transmission and control outbreaks. This may be especially beneficial in hospital settings where outbreaks can be smaller, and it is important to understand if transmission is occurring within the hospital or if the pathogen is imported from the community. Further research will help scientists understand how pathogen population genetics evolve during outbreaks and may improve the detection of subpopulations present at very low frequencies.

Genomic and geographical structure of human cytomegalovirus.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) has infected humans since the origin of our species and currently infects most of the world's population. Variability between CMV genomes is the highest of any human herpesvirus, yet large portions of the genome are conserved. Here, we show that the genome encodes 74 regions of relatively high variability each with 2 to 8 alleles. We then identified two patterns in the CMV genome. Conserved parts of the genome and a minority (32) of variable regions show geographic population structure with evidence for African or European clustering, although hybrid strains are present. We find no evidence that geographic segregation has been driven by host immune pressure affecting known antigenic sites. Forty-two variable regions show no geographical structure, with similar allele distributions across different continental populations. These "nongeographical" regions are significantly enriched for genes encoding immunomodulatory functions suggesting a core functional importance. We hypothesize that at least two CMV founder populations account for the geographical differences that are largely seen in the conserved portions of the genome, although the timing of separation and direction of spread between the two are not clear. In contrast, the similar allele frequencies among 42 variable regions of the genome, irrespective of geographical origin, are indicative of a second evolutionary process, namely balancing selection that may preserve properties critical to CMV biological function. Given that genetic differences between CMVs are postulated to alter immunogenicity and potentially function, understanding these two evolutionary processes could contribute important information for the development of globally effective vaccines and the identification of novel drug targets.

Haplotype assignment of longitudinal viral deep sequencing data using covariation of variant frequencies.

Longitudinal deep sequencing of viruses can provide detailed information about intra-host evolutionary dynamics including how viruses interact with and transmit between hosts. Many analyses require haplotype reconstruction, identifying which variants are co-located on the same genomic element. Most current methods to perform this reconstruction are based on a high density of variants and cannot perform this reconstruction for slowly evolving viruses. We present a new approach, HaROLD (HAplotype Reconstruction Of Longitudinal Deep sequencing data), which performs this reconstruction based on identifying co-varying variant frequencies using a probabilistic framework. We illustrate HaROLD on both RNA and DNA viruses with synthetic Illumina paired read data created from mixed human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) and norovirus genomes, and clinical datasets of HCMV and norovirus samples, demonstrating high accuracy, especially when longitudinal samples are available.

Immune Imprinting Drives Human Norovirus Potential for Global Spread.

Understanding the complex interactions between virus and host that drive new strain evolution is key to predicting the emergence potential of variants and informing vaccine development. Under our hypothesis, future dominant human norovirus GII.4 variants with critical antigenic properties that allow them to spread are currently circulating undetected, having diverged years earlier. Through large-scale sequencing of GII.4 surveillance samples, we identified two variants with extensive divergence within domains that mediate neutralizing antibody binding. Subsequent serological characterization of these strains using temporally resolved adult and child sera suggests that neither candidate could spread globally in adults with multiple GII.4 exposures, yet young children with minimal GII.4 exposure appear susceptible. Antigenic cartography of surveillance and outbreak sera indicates that continued population exposure to GII.4 Sydney 2012 and antigenically related variants over a 6-year period resulted in a broadening of immunity to heterogeneous GII.4 variants, including those identified here. We show that the strongest antibody responses in adults exposed to GII.4 Sydney 2012 are directed to previously circulating GII.4 viruses. Our data suggest that the broadening of antibody responses compromises establishment of strong GII.4 Sydney 2012 immunity, thereby allowing the continued persistence of GII.4 Sydney 2012 and modulating the cycle of norovirus GII.4 variant replacement. Our results indicate a cycle of norovirus GII.4 variant replacement dependent upon population immunity. Young children are susceptible to divergent variants; therefore, emergence of these strains worldwide is driven proximally by changes in adult serological immunity and distally by viral evolution that confers fitness in the context of immunity. IMPORTANCE In our model, preepidemic human norovirus variants harbor genetic diversification that translates into novel antigenic features without compromising viral fitness. Through surveillance, we identified two viruses fitting this profile, forming long branches on a phylogenetic tree. Neither evades current adult immunity, yet young children are likely susceptible. By comparing serological responses, we demonstrate that population immunity varies by age/exposure, impacting predicted susceptibility to variants. Repeat exposure to antigenically similar variants broadens antibody responses, providing immunological coverage of diverse variants but compromising response to the infecting variant, allowing continued circulation. These data indicate norovirus GII.4 variant replacement is driven distally by virus evolution and proximally by immunity in adults.

Within-host diversity improves phylogenetic and transmission reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

Accurate inference of who infected whom in an infectious disease outbreak is critical for the delivery of effective infection prevention and control. The increased resolution of pathogen whole-genome sequencing has significantly improved our ability to infer transmission events. Despite this, transmission inference often remains limited by the lack of genomic variation between the source case and infected contacts. Although within-host genetic diversity is common among a wide variety of pathogens, conventional whole-genome sequencing phylogenetic approaches to reconstruct outbreaks exclusively use consensus sequences, which consider only the most prevalent nucleotide at each position and therefore fail to capture low frequency variation within samples. We hypothesized that including within-sample variation in a phylogenetic model would help to identify who infected whom in instances in which this was previously impossible. Using whole-genome sequences from SARS-CoV-2 multi-institutional outbreaks as an example, we show how within-sample diversity is stable among repeated serial samples from the same host, is transmitted between those cases with known epidemiological links, and how this improves phylogenetic inference and our understanding of who infected whom. Our technique is applicable to other infectious diseases and has immediate clinical utility in infection prevention and control.

HIV-1 Evolutionary Dynamics under Nonsuppressive Antiretroviral Therapy.

Prolonged virologic failure on 2nd-line protease inhibitor (PI)-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) without emergence of major protease mutations is well recognized and provides an opportunity to study within-host evolution in long-term viremic individuals. Using next-generation sequencing and in silico haplotype reconstruction, we analyzed whole-genome sequences from longitudinal plasma samples of eight chronically infected HIV-1-positive individuals failing 2nd-line regimens from the French National Agency for AIDS and Viral Hepatitis Research (ANRS) 12249 Treatment as Prevention (TasP) trial. On nonsuppressive ART, there were large fluctuations in synonymous and nonsynonymous variant frequencies despite stable viremia. Reconstructed haplotypes provided evidence for selective sweeps during periods of partial adherence, and viral haplotype competition, during periods of low drug exposure. Drug resistance mutations in reverse transcriptase (RT) were used as markers of viral haplotypes in the reservoir, and their distribution over time indicated recombination. We independently observed linkage disequilibrium decay, indicative of recombination. These data highlight dramatic changes in virus population structure that occur during stable viremia under nonsuppressive ART. IMPORTANCE HIV-1 infections are most commonly initiated with a single founder virus and are characterized by extensive inter- and intraparticipant genetic diversity. However, existing literature on HIV-1 intrahost population dynamics is largely limited to untreated infections, predominantly in subtype B-infected individuals. The manuscript characterizes viral population dynamics in long-term viremic treatment-experienced individuals, which has not been previously characterized. These data are particularly relevant for understanding HIV dynamics but can also be applied to other RNA viruses. With this unique data set we propose that the virus is highly unstable, and we have found compelling evidence of HIV-1 within-host viral diversification, recombination, and haplotype competition during nonsuppressive ART.

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients.

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections.

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Predicted Norovirus Resurgence in 2021-2022 Due to the Relaxation of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Associated with COVID-19 Restrictions in England: A Mathematical Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the Government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 to mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Selection for cooperativity causes epistasis predominately between native contacts and enables epistasis-based structure reconstruction.

Epistasis and cooperativity of folding both result from networks of energetic interactions in proteins. Epistasis results from energetic interactions among mutants, whereas cooperativity results from energetic interactions during folding that reduce the presence of intermediate states. The two concepts seem intuitively related, but it is unknown how they are related, particularly in terms of selection. To investigate their relationship, we simulated protein evolution under selection for cooperativity and separately under selection for epistasis. Strong selection for cooperativity created strong epistasis between contacts in the native structure but weakened epistasis between nonnative contacts. In contrast, selection for epistasis increased epistasis in both native and nonnative contacts and reduced cooperativity. Because epistasis can be used to predict protein structure only if it preferentially occurs in native contacts, this result indicates that selection for cooperativity may be key for predicting structure using epistasis. To evaluate this inference, we simulated the evolution of guanine nucleotide-binding protein (GB1) with and without cooperativity. With cooperativity, strong epistatic interactions clearly map out the native GB1 structure, while allowing the presence of intermediate states (low cooperativity) obscured the structure. This indicates that using epistasis measurements to reconstruct protein structure may be inappropriate for proteins with stable intermediates.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical for virus infection through the engagement of the human ACE2 protein1 and is a major antibody target. Here we show that chronic infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to viral evolution and reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies in an immunosuppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, by generating whole-genome ultra-deep sequences for 23 time points that span 101 days and using in vitro techniques to characterize the mutations revealed by sequencing. There was little change in the overall structure of the viral population after two courses of remdesivir during the first 57 days. However, after convalescent plasma therapy, we observed large, dynamic shifts in the viral population, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain that contained a substitution (D796H) in the S2 subunit and a deletion (ΔH69/ΔV70) in the S1 N-terminal domain of the spike protein. As passively transferred serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype were reduced in frequency, before returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma treatment. In vitro, the spike double mutant bearing both ΔH69/ΔV70 and D796H conferred modestly decreased sensitivity to convalescent plasma, while maintaining infectivity levels that were similar to the wild-type virus.The spike substitution mutant D796H appeared to be the main contributor to the decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies, but this mutation resulted in an infectivity defect. The spike deletion mutant ΔH69/ΔV70 had a twofold higher level of infectivity than wild-type SARS-CoV-2, possibly compensating for the reduced infectivity of the D796H mutation. These data reveal strong selection on SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy, which is associated with the emergence of viral variants that show evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies in immunosuppressed individuals.

Preadaptation of pandemic GII.4 noroviruses in unsampled virus reservoirs years before emergence.

The control of re-occurring pandemic pathogens requires understanding the origins of new pandemic variants and the factors that drive their global spread. This is especially important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have hypothesized that new GII.4 pandemic viruses arise when previously circulating pandemic or pre-pandemic variants undergo substitutions in antigenic regions that enable evasion of host population immunity, as described by conventional models of antigenic drift. In contrast, we show here that the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics cannot be the proximal driver of new pandemics. Pandemic GII.4 viruses diversify and spread over wide geographical areas over several years prior to simultaneous pandemic emergence of multiple lineages, indicating that the necessary sequence changes must have occurred before diversification, years prior to pandemic emergence. We confirm this result through serological assays of reconstructed ancestral virus capsids, demonstrating that by 2003, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically preadapted GII.4 variant. These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent future pandemics.

Mixed cytomegalovirus genotypes in HIV-positive mothers show compartmentalization and distinct patterns of transmission to infants.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the commonest cause of congenital infection and particularly so among infants born to HIV-infected women. Studies of congenital CMV infection (cCMVi) pathogenesis are complicated by the presence of multiple infecting maternal CMV strains, especially in HIV-positive women, and the large, recombinant CMV genome. Using newly developed tools to reconstruct CMV haplotypes, we demonstrate anatomic CMV compartmentalization in five HIV-infected mothers and identify the possibility of congenitally transmitted genotypes in three of their infants. A single CMV strain was transmitted in each congenitally infected case, and all were closely related to those that predominate in the cognate maternal cervix. Compared to non-transmitted strains, these congenitally transmitted CMV strains showed statistically significant similarities in 19 genes associated with tissue tropism and immunomodulation. In all infants, incident superinfections with distinct strains from breast milk were captured during follow-up. The results represent potentially important new insights into the virologic determinants of early CMV infection.

Viral CpG Deficiency Provides No Evidence That Dogs Were Intermediate Hosts for SARS-CoV-2.

Due to the scope and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic there exists a strong desire to understand where the SARS-CoV-2 virus came from and how it jumped species boundaries to humans. Molecular evolutionary analyses can trace viral origins by establishing relatedness and divergence times of viruses and identifying past selective pressures. However, we must uphold rigorous standards of inference and interpretation on this topic because of the ramifications of being wrong. Here, we dispute the conclusions of Xia (2020. Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense. Mol Biol Evol. doi:10.1093/molbev/masa095) that dogs are a likely intermediate host of a SARS-CoV-2 ancestor. We highlight major flaws in Xia's inference process and his analysis of CpG deficiencies, and conclude that there is no direct evidence for the role of dogs as intermediate hosts. Bats and pangolins currently have the greatest support as ancestral hosts of SARS-CoV-2, with the strong caveat that sampling of wildlife species for coronaviruses has been limited.

ChromaClade: combined visualisation of phylogenetic and sequence data.

BACKGROUND: Studying site-specific amino acid frequencies by eye can reveal biologically significant variability and lineage-specific adaptation. This so-called 'sequence gazing' often informs bioinformatics and experimental research. But it is important to also account for the underlying phylogeny, since similarities may be due to common descent rather than selection pressure, and because it is important to distinguish between founder effects and convergent evolution. We set out to combine phylogenetic and sequence data to produce evolutionarily insightful visualisations. RESULTS: We present ChromaClade, a convenient tool with a graphical user-interface that works in concert with popular tree viewers to produce colour-annotated phylogenies highlighting residues found in each taxon and at each site in a sequence alignment. Colouring branches according to residues found at descendent tips also quickly identifies lineage-specific residues and those internal branches where key substitutions have occurred. We demonstrate applications of ChromaClade to human immunodeficiency virus and influenza A virus datasets, illustrating cases of conservative, adaptive and convergent evolution. CONCLUSIONS: We find this to be a powerful approach for visualising site-wise residue distributions and detecting evolutionary patterns, especially in large datasets. ChromaClade is available for Windows, macOS and Unix or Linux; program executables and source code are available at github.com/chrismonit/chroma_clade .

Positive selection in dNTPase SAMHD1 throughout mammalian evolution.

The vertebrate protein SAMHD1 is highly unusual in having roles in cellular metabolic regulation, antiviral restriction, and regulation of innate immunity. Its deoxynucleoside triphosphohydrolase activity regulates cellular dNTP concentration, reducing levels below those required by lentiviruses and other viruses to replicate. To counter this threat, some primate lentiviruses encode accessory proteins that bind SAMHD1 and induce its degradation; in turn, positive diversifying selection has been observed in regions bound by these lentiviral proteins, suggesting that primate SAMHD1 has coevolved to evade these countermeasures. Moreover, deleterious polymorphisms in human SAMHD1 are associated with autoimmune disease linked to uncontrolled DNA synthesis of endogenous retroelements. Little is known about how evolutionary pressures affect these different SAMHD1 functions. Here, we examine the deeper history of these interactions by testing whether evolutionary signatures in SAMHD1 extend to other mammalian groups and exploring the molecular basis of this coevolution. Using codon-based likelihood models, we find positive selection in SAMHD1 within each mammal lineage for which sequence data are available. We observe positive selection at sites clustered around T592, a residue that is phosphorylated to regulate SAMHD1 activity. We verify experimentally that mutations within this cluster affect catalytic rate and lentiviral restriction, suggesting that virus-host coevolution has required adaptations of enzymatic function. Thus, persistent positive selection may have involved the adaptation of SAMHD1 regulation to balance antiviral, metabolic, and innate immunity functions.

Biophysics and population size constrains speciation in an evolutionary model of developmental system drift.

Developmental system drift is a likely mechanism for the origin of hybrid incompatibilities between closely related species. We examine here the detailed mechanistic basis of hybrid incompatibilities between two allopatric lineages, for a genotype-phenotype map of developmental system drift under stabilising selection, where an organismal phenotype is conserved, but the underlying molecular phenotypes and genotype can drift. This leads to number of emergent phenomenon not obtainable by modelling genotype or phenotype alone. Our results show that: 1) speciation is more rapid at smaller population sizes with a characteristic, Orr-like, power law, but at large population sizes slow, characterised by a sub-diffusive growth law; 2) the molecular phenotypes under weakest selection contribute to the earliest incompatibilities; and 3) pair-wise incompatibilities dominate over higher order, contrary to previous predictions that the latter should dominate. The population size effect we find is consistent with previous results on allopatric divergence of transcription factor-DNA binding, where smaller populations have common ancestors with a larger drift load because genetic drift favours phenotypes which have a larger number of genotypes (higher sequence entropy) over more fit phenotypes which have far fewer genotypes; this means less substitutions are required in either lineage before incompatibilities arise. Overall, our results indicate that biophysics and population size provide a much stronger constraint to speciation than suggested by previous models, and point to a general mechanistic principle of how incompatibilities arise the under stabilising selection for an organismal phenotype.