Estimating the surgical backlog from the COVID-19 lockdown in South Africa: A retrospective analysis of six government hospitals.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic reached South Africa (SA) in March 2020. A national lockdown began on 27 March 2020, and health facilities reduced non-essential activity, including many surgical services. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: to estimate the COVID-19 surgical backlog in Western Cape Province, SA, by comparing 2019 and 2020 general surgery operative volume and proportion at six district and regional hospitals. SECONDARY OBJECTIVE: to compare the operative volume of appendicectomy, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, cancer and trauma between the 2 years. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of general surgery operations from six SA government hospitals in the Western Cape. Data were obtained from electronic operative databases or operative theatre logbooks from 1 April to 31 July 2019 and 1 April to 31 July 2020. RESULTS: Total general surgery operations decreased by 44% between 2019 (n=3 247) and 2020 (n=1 810) (p<0.001). Elective operations decreased by 74% (n=1 379 v. n=362; p<0.001), and one common elective procedure, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, decreased by 68% (p<0.001). Emergency operations decreased by 22% (n=1 868 v. n=1 448; p<0.001) and trauma operations by 42% (n=325 v. n=190; p<0.001). However, non-trauma emergency operations such as appendicectomy and cancer did not decrease. The surgical backlog for elective operations after 4 months from these six hospitals is 1 017 cases, which will take between 4 and 14 months to address if each hospital can do one additional operation per weekday. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has created large backlogs of elective operations that will need to be addressed urgently. Clear and structured guidelines need to be developed in order to streamline the reintroduction of full surgical healthcare services as SA slowly recovers from this unprecedented pandemic.

Venous bicarbonate and creatine kinase as diagnostic and prognostic tools in the setting of acute traumatic rhabdomyolysis.

BACKGROUND: Myorenal or crush syndrome often develops following soft-tissue traumatic injury. It is a spectrum of disease that may result in severe renal dysfunction and kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy. OBJECTIVES: To review a large cohort of patients with so-called myorenal or crush syndrome and assess the biochemical markers of venous bicarbonate and creatine kinase as predictors for the development of acute kidney injury (AKI). METHODS: All patients with myorenal syndrome who presented to Khayelitsha District Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa (SA), and Ngwelezana Hospital, Empangeni, KwaZulu-Natal, SA, between January and December 2017 were identified and reviewed. RESULTS: A total of 212 patients were included in the study. At both hospitals, 94% of the patients were male. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient, we compared creatinine kinase (CK) against serum creatinine. The mean CK level was 5 311.8 U/L and the mean creatinine level 133.457 µmol/L. The r-value was 0.2533. Although this is a technically positive correlation, the relationship between the variables is weak. Using the Pearson R Calculator, we inserted the r-value to calculate the p-value. The p-value was 0.000208. When comparing venous bicarbonate (HCO3) against creatinine, the mean HCO3 level was 22.296 mmol/L and the mean creatinine level 162.053 µmol/L. The r-value was -0.3468. Although this is a technically negative correlation, the relationship between the variables is weak. Using the Pearson R Calculator, we inserted the r-value to calculate the p-value. The p-value was 0.000013. The inverse ratio shown with HCO3 v. creatinine, although still a weak correlation, is significantly better in predicting an increase in creatinine compared with the weak positive correlation of CK v. creatinine. CONCLUSIONS: Although both venous HCO3 and CK showed a weak correlation with creatinine, the former performed significantly better in predicting AKI. In a resource-constrained system, we recommend that HCO3 be measured to assess patients with crush injury and that CK be regarded as a complementary modality.