The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of Emergency Departments in Italy.

Background: During 2020, COVID-19 had a diversified distribution in Italy, the first nation in Europe to experience the outbreak of the epidemic. This was linked to geographical differences in population density and distribution of healthcare facilities, including Emergency Departments (EDs). This study aims to assess the impact of the pandemic on ED utilization in 2020 across different subpopulations and geographical locations in Italy. Methods: We used anonymized data from a survey conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics on 25,000 families to analyze the yearly rate of people who used EDs from 2015 to 2020. The rate of persons who accessed ED services in 2020 per 1,000 population was compared with those of the previous non-pandemic years. Results: The number of people accessing EDs in 2020 was 32.3% lower, although this reduction was not uniform across the 21 regions / autonomous provinces. People aged 0-14 years experienced the highest reduction in ED visits. In 2020, low educational level people exhibited a steeper reduction in the use of EDs. Conclusions: This study shows a significant drop in EDs use especially by children; the population section mostly affected by the effects of the pandemic. This study also confirms that education and socio-economic status are important determinants of ED use. The heterogeneous reduction in ED use across the regions of Italy highlights the need to further investigate the impact of this pattern on the health of the population, as well as to define adequate preparedness strategies to face future emergencies.

Gender differences and multiple determinants of perceived physical and mental health in Italy.

Background: Perceived health is largely dependent on multiple socio-demographic and behavioral lifestyles and healthcare related factors. This could be accentuated when gender is taken into account. The aim of this study is to explore gender-related differences in multiple socio-demographic and behavioral lifestyles and healthcare related factors associated with individual health status and to identify those responsible for changes in perceived physical and mental health among men and women in Italy. Study design: We conducted a cross-sectional retrospective study to investigate the association between multiple socio-demographic and behavioral lifestyles and healthcare related factors and individual health status of 99,479 adults in Italy, using data and information obtained from a nationwide survey. Methods: To identify the factors that correlate with the perceived physical and mental health status between males and females, we employed a censored regression analysis, a Tobit model, stratifying the analysis by gender. Results: Socio-demographic and behavioral lifestyles factors differently impact on males and females and this impact is stronger on perceived physical than mental health. The perceived physical and mental health status resulted better for men than for women. The integrated analysis of gender differences in socio-demographic and behavioral lifestyles and determinants of health revealed important inequalities, mainly related to citizenship and educational level, among the socio-demographic factors, and smoking habit and obesity, among the behavioral lifestyle factors. Conclusions: Gender imbalances mainly fall into inequality in social inclusion, educational level, and healthy lifestyle. This demonstrates how gender differences are still abundantly present in the modern Italian society. Such information should be taken into consideration by policy makers when interventions to improve the health and quality of life of the population are planned or evaluated.

Small-scale spatial analysis shows the specular distribution of excess mortality between the first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to compare excess mortality (EM) patterns and spatial correlation between the first and second wave of the pandemic in Lombardy, the Italian region that paid an extremely high COVID-19-related mortality toll in March and April 2020. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a longitudinal study using municipality-level mortality data. METHODS: We investigated the patterns and spatial correlation of EM of men aged ≥75 years during the first two pandemic waves (March-April 2020 vs November 2020) of COVID-19, using the mortality data released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. EM was estimated at the municipality level to accurately detect the critical areas within the region. RESULTS: The areas that were mostly hit during the first wave of COVID-19 were generally spared by the second wave: EM of men aged ≥75 years in the municipality of Bergamo plummeted from +472% in March and April to -13% in November, and in Cremona the variation was from +344% to -19%. Conversely, in November 2020 EM was higher in some areas that had been protected in the first wave of the pandemic. Spatial correlation widely corroborates these findings, as large sections of the hot spots of EM detected in the first wave of the pandemic changed into cold spots in the second wave, and vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reveal the specular distribution of EM between the first and second wave of the pandemic, which may entail the consequences of social distancing measures and individual behaviors, local management strategies, 'harvesting' of the frailer population and, possibly, acquired immune protection. In conclusion, our findings support the need for continuous monitoring and analysis of mortality data using detailed spatial resolution.

Developing a new predictor of health expenditure: preliminary results from a primary healthcare setting.

OBJECTIVES: Risk adjustment is a widely used tool for health expenditure prediction and control. Early approaches for estimating health expenditure were based on patient demographic variables alone, whereas more recent models incorporate patient information, such as chronic medical conditions, clinical diagnoses, and self-reported health status. Many studies have investigated the health expenditure predictive capacity of single demographic, morbidity, or health-related quality of life measures, but the best models prove to be those that include them all. The aim of this study was to develop an index that combines measures of perceived health and disease severity and to compare its efficacy in predicting health expenditure with that of the measures taken individually. STUDY DESIGN: This is a linked cross-sectional study. METHODS: In 2009 and 2010, the health-related quality of life questionnaire SF-36 (8 scales, two indices: Physical Component Summary [PCS] and Mental Component Summary [MCS]) was distributed to 886 patients of general practitioners in the Province of Siena, Italy. Severity of diseases was calculated for each patient using the Charlson Index (CH-I) and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale Severity Index (CIRS-SI). Siena Local Health Unit 2012 data on health expenditure were obtained for each patient. Multivariate linear regression was applied to test the performance of severity (CH-I, CIRS-SI) and perceived health (PCS and MCS) measures in predicting health expenditure. The indexes that predicted health expenditure best were then combined in a new tool, and its expenditure predictive capacity was tested. RESULTS: The best health expenditure predictors proved to be PCS and SI (R2 = 0.15 and R2 = 0.17, respectively). When combined in a new index (PCS-SI), better predictive capacity of health expenditure was obtained than with the two single measures separately (R2 = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: A multidimensional indicator proved to be a better predictor of healthcare expenditure than single health measures.

Development of an international comorbidity education framework.

CONTEXT: The increasing number of people living with multiple chronic conditions in addition to an index condition has become an international healthcare priority. Health education curricula have been developed alongside single condition frameworks in health service policy and practice and need redesigning to incorporate optimal management of multiple conditions. AIM: Our aims were to evaluate current teaching and learning about comorbidity care amongst the global population of healthcare students from different disciplines and to develop an International Comorbidity Education Framework (ICEF) for incorporating comorbidity concepts into health education. METHODS: We surveyed nursing, medical and pharmacy students from England, India, Italy and Sweden to evaluate their understanding of comorbidity care. A list of core comorbidity content was constructed by an international group of higher education academics and clinicians from the same disciplines, by searching current curricula and analysing clinical frameworks and the student survey data. This list was used to develop the International Comorbidity Education Framework. RESULTS: The survey sample consisted of 917 students from England (42%), India (48%), Italy (8%) and Sweden (2%). The majority of students across all disciplines said that they lacked knowledge, training and confidence in comorbidity care and were unable to identify specific teaching on comorbidities. All student groups wanted further comorbidity training. The health education institution representatives found no specific references to comorbidity in current health education curricula. Current clinical frameworks were used to develop an agreed list of core comorbidity content and hence an International Comorbidity Education Framework. CONCLUSIONS: Based on consultation with academics and clinicians and on student feedback we developed an International Comorbidity Education Framework to promote the integration of comorbidity concepts into current healthcare curricula.

Trauma Exposure in Anxious Primary Care Patients.

The present study examined rates of trauma exposure, clinical characteristics associated with trauma exposure, and the effect of trauma exposure on treatment outcome in a large sample of primary care patients without posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Individuals without PTSD (N = 1263) treated as part of the CALM program (Roy-Byrne et al., 2010) were assessed for presence of trauma exposure. Those with and without trauma exposure were compared on baseline demographic and diagnostic information, symptom severity, and responder status six months after beginning treatment. Trauma-exposed individuals (N = 662, 53%) were more likely to meet diagnostic criteria for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder and had higher levels of somatic symptoms at baseline. Individuals with and without trauma exposure did not differ significantly on severity of anxiety, depression, or mental health functioning at baseline. Trauma exposure did not significantly impact treatment response. Findings suggest that adverse effects of trauma exposure in those without PTSD may include OCD and somatic anxiety symptoms. Treatment did not appear to be adversely impacted by trauma exposure. Thus, although trauma exposure is prevalent in primary care samples, results suggest that treatment of the presenting anxiety disorder is effective irrespective of trauma history.

Use of neighbourhood parks: does socio-economic status matter? A four-city study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if neighbourhood socio-economic status (SES) is associated with park use and park-based physical activity. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: The use and characteristics of 24 neighbourhood parks in Albuquerque, Chapel Hill/Durham, Columbus and Philadelphia were observed systematically in three seasons (spring, summer and autumn), with nearly 36,000 park users observed. Twelve parks were in high-poverty neighbourhoods and 12 parks were in low-poverty neighbourhoods. In total, 3559 park users and 3815 local residents were surveyed. Park incivilities were assessed and park administrators were interviewed about management practices. RESULTS: The size and number of facilities in parks in high-poverty neighbourhoods were similar to those in parks in low-poverty neighbourhoods, but the former had more hours of programming. Neighbourhood poverty level, perception of safety and the presence of incivilities were not associated with the number of park users observed. However, programmed activities and the number of activity facilities were strongly correlated with park use and energy expended in the park. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that park programming is the most important correlate of park use and park-based physical activity suggests that there are considerable opportunities for facilitating physical activity among populations of both high- and low-poverty areas.

Functioning and disability levels in primary care out-patients with one or more anxiety disorders.

BACKGROUND: Anxiety disorders are the most prevalent mental health disorders and are associated with substantial disability and reduced well-being. It is unknown whether the relative impact of different anxiety disorders is due to the anxiety disorder itself or to the co-occurrence with other anxiety disorders. This study compared the functional impact of combinations of anxiety disorders in primary care out-patients. METHOD: A total of 1004 patients with panic disorder (PD), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), social anxiety disorder (SAD) or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) provided data on their mental and physical functioning, and disability. Multivariate regressions compared functional levels for patients with different numbers and combinations of disorders. RESULTS: Of the patients, 42% had one anxiety disorder only, 38% two, 16% three and 3% all four. There were few relative differences in functioning among patients with only one anxiety disorder, although those with SAD were most restricted in their work, social and home activities and those with GAD were the least impaired. Functioning levels tended to deteriorate as co-morbidity increased. CONCLUSIONS: Of the four anxiety disorders examined, GAD appears to be the least disabling, although they all have more in common than in distinction when it comes to functional impairment. A focus on unique effects of specific anxiety disorders is inadequate, as it fails to address the more pervasive impairment associated with multiple anxiety disorders, which is the modal presentation in primary care.

Bayesian inference in a hidden stochastic two-compartment model for feline hematopoiesis.

In this paper, we describe a hidden two-compartment stochastic process used to model the kinetics of feline hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in continuous time. Because of the experimental design and data collection scheme, the inferential task presents numerous challenges. While the hematopoietic process evolves in continuous time, the observations are collected only at discrete irregular times and are a probabilistic function of the state of the process. In addition, the animals go through an experimental procedure such that their reserve of HSCs is severely depleted at the start of the observation period. This impedes any approximation of the hematopoietic process with a continuous state-space process (normal approximation of the transition probabilities would be inaccurate when the state of the process, i.e. the number of stem cells, is small). We implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters of the hematopoietic process while maintaining its state-space discrete (i.e. without using any approximation). We show the performance of the algorithm on simulated data. Finally, we apply the algorithm to data on multiple experimental cats and provide estimates of the rates of the fates of feline HSCs. The obtained estimates are in agreement with the estimates obtained with different methods published in the medical literature. However, the proposed approach makes a more efficient use of the data and hence the parameter estimates are much more accurate than the one obtained with the methods previously proposed.

In vivo kinetics of murine hemopoietic stem cells.

We used stochastic modeling and computer simulation to study the replication, apoptosis, and differentiation of murine hemopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in vivo. This approach allows description of the behavior of an unobserved population (ie, HSCs) on the basis of the behavior of observed progeny cells (ie, granulocytes and lymphocytes). The results of previous limiting-dilution, competitive-repopulation studies in 44 mice were compared with the results of simulated transplantation studies to identify parameters that led to comparable outcomes. Using this approach, we estimated that murine HSCs replicate (on average) once every 2.5 weeks and that the frequency of murine HSCs is 8 per 10(5) nucleated marrow cells. If it is assumed that short-term repopulating cells are distinct from HSCs, that they contribute to hemopoiesis early after transplantation, and that they are independently regulated, a frequency of 4 HSCs per 10(5) nucleated marrow cells also allows simulations that best approximate the observed data. When stochastic modeling and computer simulation were applied to limiting-dilution, autologous-transplantation studies in cats heterozygous for glucose-6-phosphate-dehydrogenase, different estimates of HSC replication rate (1 per 8.3-10 weeks) and frequency (6 per 10(7) cells) were derived. Therefore, it appears that these parameters vary inversely with increased longevity, size, or both. An implication of these data is that human HSCs may be less frequent and replicate more slowly. These findings on cell kinetics have several implications.