Forecasting daily Covid-19 cases in the world with a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model.

The use of models to predict disease cases is common in epidemiology and related areas, in the context of Covid-19, both ARIMA and Neural Network models can be applied for purposes of optimized resource management, so the aim of this study is to capture the linear and non-linear structures of daily Covid-19 cases in the world by using a hybrid forecasting model. In summary, the proposed hybrid system methodology consists of two steps. In the first step, an ARIMA model is used to analyze the linear part of the problem. In the second step, a neural network model is developed to model the residuals of the ARIMA model, which would be the non-linear part of it. The neural network model was superior to the ARIMA when considering the capture of weekly seasonality and in two weeks, the combination of models with the capture of seasonality in two weeks provided a mixed model with good error metrics, that allows actions to be premeditated with greater certainty, such as increasing the number of nurses in a location, or the acceleration of vaccination campaigns to diminish a possible increase in the number of cases.

Applying Spatio-temporal Scan Statistics and Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics to identify Covid-19 clusters in the world - A Vaccination Strategy?

With the whole world being affected by the pandemic, it is a matter of great importance that studies about spatial and spatio-temporal aspects of the COVID-19 (Sars-Cov-2) pandemic should be conducted, therefore the main goal of this paper is to present the Global Moran's I and the Local Moran's I used to evaluate spatial association in the number of deaths and infections by COVID-19, and a spatio-temporal Poisson scan statistic used to identify emerging or "alive" clusters of infections by Sars-Cov-2 in space and time. As of January 2021 vaccination against COVID-19 already started, since the use of spatial clustering methods to identify non-vaccinated populations is not new among studies on vaccination coverage strategies, this paper also aims to discuss the implementation of spatial and spatio-temporal clustering methods in early vaccination.

Causality imputation between herbal products and HILI: An algorithm evaluation in a systematic review.

Algorithms can have several purposes in the clinical practice. There are different scales for causality imputation in DILI (Drug-Induced Liver Injury), but the applicability and validity of these for the HILI (Herb-Induced Liver Injury) evaluation is questionable for some scales. The purpose of the study was to determine the clinical and demographic profile of the patients with HILI, and the main algorithmic scales used in its causality assessment. The methodology was a systematic review of articles in English, Spanish, or Portuguese language, from 1979 to 2019, involving humans, with descriptors related to HILI. Qualitative and quantitative statistical analysis were performed. As a result, from a total of 60 articles, 203 HILI reports were selected: 59.9% were women, similar with other studies, and the average age was 45.8 years. Jaundice was the most frequent symptom and regarding the type of lesion, the hepatocellular was the most frequent. In regard to HILI severity, 3.0% were severe and 7.6% were fatal or required liver transplantation. In 72.3% of the cases, the most used algorithm was RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method). The conclusion of the study is that RUCAM was the most used algorithm for causality assessment in HILI. The patients were predominantly female, jaundice was the main symptom, and HILI is reversible in the majority of cases.

Determinants of mild-to-moderate malnutrition in preschoolers in an urban area of Northeastern Brazil: a hierarchical approach.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the determinants of mild-to-moderate malnutrition in preschoolers. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study conducted in October and November 1996, with a representative sample of 1740 children less than 5 years old from the city of Salvador, situated in the Brazilian Northeastern region. Socio-economic and dietary data were collected through a structured questionnaire. Anthropometric measures were performed in duplicate and data analysis was based upon the hierarchical model approach. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the prevalence ratio and to identify the determinants of mild-to-moderate deficits in weight-for-age and height-for-age Z-scores. RESULTS: Family monthly income under US$67.00 per capita and family headed by a woman were the main basic determinants of mild-to-moderate weight-for-age and height-for-age deficits in the studied children. Household agglomeration, an underlying determinant, was associated with weight-for-age and height-for-age deficits. Among the immediate determinants, age above 6 months and dietary caloric availability in the lowest tertile (<930 kcal day-1) were also associated with weight-for-age deficits. In addition to these, hospitalisation in the 12 months preceding the interview was shown to be a predictor of mild-to-moderate weight-for-age and height-for-age deficits. CONCLUSION: Adverse social and economic factors interact with family environmental factors to define food consumption and morbidity patterns that culminate in a high prevalence of mild-to-moderate malnutrition. The strengthening and restructuring of nutrition and healthcare actions, the definition of public policies that improve family income, and the adequate insertion of women in the labour market are possible strategies to reduce mild-to-moderate malnutrition and to sustain the decline already observed in severe malnutrition.

Duração do aleitamento materno, regime alimentar e fatores associados segundo condições de vida em Salvador, Bahia, Brasil / Breastfeeding duration, infant feeding regimes, and factors related to living conditions in the city of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

Este trabalho tem como objetivo conhecer a duração do aleitamento materno, regime alimentar e fatores associados segundo condições de vida em Salvador, Bahia, Brasil. Este estudo de prevalência envolve 811 crianças menores de 24 meses. Para analisar os dados utilizou-se análise de sobrevivência, qui-quadrado de Pearson e regressão logística. A duração mediana do aleitamento exclusivo, predominante e total foi de 30,6, 73 e 131,5 dias, respectivamente. Identificou-se que 83,3 por cento das crianças tiveram interrupção precoce do aleitamento exclusivo ou predominante. As crianças de famílias com condições de vida consideradas baixas tinham 2,3 vezes mais chances (IC95 por cento: 1,09-5,01) de consumirem alimentos complementares precocemente; essa chance se elevou para 2,5 (IC95 por cento: 1,20-5,34) entre aquelas de famílias com condições de vida muito baixas. A interrupção precoce do aleitamento exclusivo ou predominante associou-se com a maternidade em idade precoce e as precárias condições de vida das crianças e suas famílias. Programas direcionados à promoção da prática adequada do aleitamento materno e adoção da alimentação saudável na infância devem considerar a relevância dos fatores sociais envolvidos no oferecimento precoce de alimentos complementares à criança.

[Breastfeeding duration, infant feeding regimes, and factors related to living conditions in the city of Salvador, Bahia, Brazil]. / Duração do aleitamento materno, regime alimentar e fatores associados segundo condições de vida em Salvador, Bahia, Brasil.

This cross-sectional study aimed to identify breastfeeding duration, infant feeding regimes, and factors related to living conditions among 811 children under 24 months of age in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. Data were statistically analyzed by survival analysis, Pearson's chi-square test, and multivariate logistic regression. Median duration of exclusive, predominant, and total breastfeeding was 30.6, 73.0, and 131.5 days, respectively. Exclusive or predominant breastfeeding was discontinued in 83.6% of the subjects. Children with poor living conditions were 2.3 times more likely (95%CI: 1.09-5.01) to receive early supplementary food, whereas the figure for the very poor increased to 2.5 (95%CI: 1.20-5.34). Early exclusive or predominant breastfeeding discontinuation was associated with early pregnancy and poor living conditions of the children and their families. Programs directed towards proper breastfeeding and healthy feeding practices in childhood should consider the social factors associated with early introduction of supplementary foods in this population.

Childhood anemia prevalence and associated factors in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.

A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1996 to estimate the prevalence of anemia in a stratified sample of 603 preschool children and identify factors associated with the disease. Hemoglobin assays were conducted in finger-prick blood samples using a Hemocue hemoglobinometer. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin below 11.0 g/dl. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the potential associations. Observed anemia prevalence was 46.3%. Associated factors were: the 6-12-month and 12-24-month age brackets, the lowest tertiles for iron density and protein content dietary intake, and any degree of deficit in the height-for-age anthropometric parameter. Inadequate physical, sanitary, and environmental conditions in the home were associated with a significantly increased risk of anemia. Anemia constitutes an important health problem in this study's child population. Improvements in living conditions and dietary quality could contribute to a reduction in anemia prevalence.

Childhood anemia prevalence and associated factors in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

Este é um estudo transversal, realizado na cidade de Salvador, Bahia, Brasil, em 1996, envolvendo 603 pré-escolares com o objetivo de estimar a prevalência e identificar os fatores associados à ocorrência da anemia. A concentração da hemoglobina foi determinada utilizando-se o hemoglobinômetro (Hemocue). Níveis de hemoglobina abaixo de 11,0g/dl caracterizaram a anemia. Utilizou-se a análise de regressão logística para avaliar as associações de interesse. A prevalência da anemia foi de 46,3 por cento. As faixas etárias de 6 a 12 e 12 a 24 meses, a densidade de ferro e a quantidade de proteína, situados no terceiro tercil da distribuição de consumo e quaisquer níveis de inadequação da altura em relação à idade constituíram-se em fatores de risco para a ocorrência da anemia. Inadequadas condições físicas, sanitárias e ambientais do domicilio imprimiram riscos crescentes e significantes na ocorrência da anemia A anemia é um importante problema de saúde nas crianças investigadas. Melhorias das condições de moradia e da qualidade da dieta consumida podem contribuir para diminuir a ocorrência da enfermidade.

[Hemoglobin concentration, breastfeeding and complementary feeding in the first year of life]. / Níveis de hemoglobina, aleitamento materno e regime alimentar no primeiro ano de vida.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between hemoglobin concentration and breastfeeding and complementary feeding during the first years of life. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with 553 children under age 12 months, who attended public healthcare facilities. Hemoglobin concentration was measured by the cyanmethaemoglobin method, using the HemoCue system. Associations of interest were analyzed through multiple linear regression. RESULTS: Hemoglobin concentrations compatible with anemia were identified in 62.8% of the children studied, with greater occurrence among the 6-12 months age group (72.6%). Exclusive breastfeeding during the first six months of life was associated with the highest levels of hemoglobin. The remaining feeding regimes were associated with different levels of reduction in hemoglobin levels, which became compatible with anemia in children fed with formula (p=0.009). Tea and/or water consumption was associated with a reduction in hemoglobin concentration of 0.76 g/dl (p<0.001) among children under age 6 months. For children aged 6-12 months, hemoglobin concentrations increased significantly with the consumption of sugar (p=0.017) and beans (p=0.018), and decreased significantly with the consumption of fruit (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Exclusive breastfeeding until age 6 months and continuation of breastfeeding after this age, combined with qualitatively and quantitatively appropriate feeding may contribute towards an increase in hemoglobin concentration in the first year of life.

Níveis de hemoglobina, aleitamento materno e regime alimentar no primeiro ano de vida / Hemoglobin concentration, breastfeeding and complementary feeding in the first year of life

OBJETIVO: Identificar a relação entre os níveis de hemoglobina e o consumo de leite materno, alimentos complementares e líquidos não nutritivos no primeiro ano de vida. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 553 crianças menores de 12 meses de vida, que freqüentavam os serviços públicos de saúde. A concentração de hemoglobina foi avaliada pelo método cianometahemoglobina, usando-se o sistema HemoCue. Utilizou-se a técnica da regressão linear múltipla para avaliar as associações de interesse. RESULTADOS: Níveis de hemoglobina compatíveis com a anemia foram identificados em 62,8 por cento das crianças investigadas, com maior ocorrência naquelas de seis a 12 meses de idade (72,6 por cento). O aleitamento materno exclusivo nos primeiros seis meses de vida assegurou os mais elevados níveis de hemoglobina. Os demais regimes alimentares declinaram de maneira diferenciada os níveis de hemoglobina, que se tornaram compatíveis com a anemia quando o regime de aleitamento artificial foi adotado (p=0,009). O consumo de chá e/ou água declinou em 0,76 g/dl (p<0,001) os níveis de hemoglobina dos menores de seis meses de idade. Para as crianças de seis a 12 meses, os níveis de hemoglobina variaram significante e positivamente com o consumo de açúcar (p=0,017) e feijão (p=0,018) e negativamente com o consumo de fruta (p<0,001). CONCLUSÕES: O aleitamento materno exclusivo até os seis meses de idade e a manutenção do leite materno a partir dessa idade, associado aos alimentos complementares quali e quantitativamente adequados, podem contribuir para o aumento dos níveis da hemoglobina no primeiro ano de vida.