ABSTRACT
A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical model adjustment is performed via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Optimal lockdown and exit strategies are determined based on nonlinear model predictive control, constrained to public-health and socio-economic factors. Through an extensive computational validation of the methodology, it is shown that it is possible to compute robust exit strategies with realistic reduced mobility values to inform public policy making, and we exemplify the applicability of the methodology using datasets from England and France.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Quarantine , Travel , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/virology , England , France , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , SmartphoneABSTRACT
We analyze a variant of the Desai-Zwanzig model [J. Stat. Phys. 19, 1 (1978)JSTPBS0022-471510.1007/BF01020331]. In particular, we study stationary states of the mean field limit for a system of weakly interacting diffusions moving in a multiwell potential energy landscape, coupled via a Curie-Weiss type (quadratic) interaction potential. The location and depth of the local minima of the potential are either deterministic or random. We characterize the structure and nature of bifurcations and phase transitions for this system, by means of extensive numerical simulations and of analytical calculations for an explicitly solvable model. Our numerical experiments are based on Monte Carlo simulations, the numerical solution of the time-dependent nonlinear Fokker-Planck (McKean-Vlasov) equation, the minimization of the free-energy functional, and a continuation algorithm for the stationary solutions.
