Numerical simulation of the deadliest flood event of Portugal: Unravelling the causes of the disaster.

The flood event of November 25 and 26, 1967 corresponds to the deadliest storm affecting Portugal in recent centuries being responsible for >500 fatalities. The main trigger was the heavy rain that fell in just a few hours, provoking a rapid increase in river flows, although other concurrent circumstances had to occur to reach the dramatic water levels estimated in some affected places. However, even today, several important uncertainties related to water levels achieved and timing of floods remain. Here we aim to clarify some of the pending issues by applying suitable high performance numerical tools to elucidate the main conditioning factors that played a key role in the intensification of this dramatic flood. In particular, the analysis has been focused on Quintas village, the location most affected, where >100 fatalities were recorded, close to 2/3 of its total population at the time. The main conclusion provided by the numerical simulations was that a plugging of water flow downstream of Quintas village, favoured by a poor terrain maintenance coupled with the bottleneck created by topographic features, caused the critical over-elevation of water levels. Simulations also corroborate the rapid increase in water levels in Quintas village, with an estimated rise of >2 m in just two hours, as well as the occurrence of the flood during the night, preventing many people to be aware of the extreme danger they were facing and safeguarding themselves.

A habitat suitability model for aquaculture site selection: Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas.

Aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing activities worldwide. This strong and rapid development of the sector tends to be reflected in significant environmental impacts and new challenges in the management of the coastal areas. In this context, this work intends to contribute to the sustainability of the sector, by proposing an innovative method to identify preferred locations to ensure sustainable expansion of fish and mussels aquaculture, under optimal hydrodynamic and water quality conditions in Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) and Rias Baixas (Spain). A habitat model was developed, integrating hydrodynamic and water quality modelling results into a suitability index based on the definition of variable suitability functions. The results show that 22% of Ria de Aveiro is very good for fish production. In contrast, the production of pelagic fish in Rias Baixas is not recommended due to vertical gradients of water temperature and seasonal events of hypoxia. Concerning to mussels, the habitat model classifies 31% of Ria de Aveiro area as very good for production, while most of the Rias Baixas area presents this highest classification, confirming the high exploitation of the region. The definition of appropriate areas for aquaculture exploitation is highly related with the different geomorphological, hydrological and biogeochemical processes of Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas. Results for Ria de Aveiro indicate that the upstream areas are the most vulnerable from the water quality point of view, highlighting the importance of the advective processes in the lagoon's water quality, in opposition to Rias Baixas dynamics, where stratification is more relevant. In Rias Baixas, the strong vertical gradient of water temperature and dissolved oxygen prevents fish from having sustainable growth rates. Therefore, this work demonstrated the potential of the proposed method based on hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modelling to support the decision-making process in planning aquaculture expansion.

Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms Considering Near Future Wind Resources: Case Study of Iberian Coast and Bay of Biscay.

Wind energy resources are subject to changes in climate, so the use of wind energy density projections in the near future is essential to determine the viability and profitability of wind farms at particular locations. Thus, a step forward in determining the economic assessment of floating offshore wind farms was taken by considering current and near-future wind energy resources in assessing the main parameters that determine the economic viability (net present value, internal rate of return, and levelized cost of energy) of wind farms. This study was carried out along the Atlantic coast from Brest to Cape St. Vincent. Results show that the future reduction in wind energy density (2%-6%) mainly affects the net present value (NPV) of the farm and has little influence on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). This study provides a good estimate of the economic viability of OWFs (Offshore Wind Farms) by taking into account how wind resources can vary due to climate change over the lifetime of the farm.

Modelling the distribution of microplastics released by wastewater treatment plants in Ria de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula).

The accumulation of plastic waste in estuaries is growing due to the increase in their use in daily life and their inadequate treatment on wastewater plants (WWTPs). Hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models were validated and used to improve the knowledge about the distribution and concentration of microplastics released by WWTPs in the Ria de Vigo. Results showed that the Vigo WWTP is the main driver of microplastics to the Ria de Vigo. Besides, 21% of the released microplastics reach the adjacent ocean, 24% remain anchored around the Cies Islands, and a negligible percentage reaches the upper estuary when the emission occurs under ebb on spring tide conditions. A negligible number of released microplastics is exported to the nearby ocean when the emission occurs under neap tide conditions. This research can provide a useful tool to support the identification of monitoring processes and debris removal.

NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating.

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.

An overview of offshore wind energy resources in Europe under present and future climate.

Long-term sustainable development of European offshore wind energy requires knowledge of the best places for installing offshore wind farms. To achieve this, a good knowledge of wind resources is needed, as well as knowledge of international, European, and national regulations regarding conflict management, marine environment conservation, biodiversity protection, licensing processes, and support regimes. Such a multidisciplinary approach could help to identify areas where wind resources are abundant and where conflicts with other interests are scarce, support measures are greater, and licensing processes are streamlined. An overview of offshore wind power studies at present, and of their future projections for the 21st century, allows for determining the optimal European locations to install or maintain offshore wind farms. Only northern Europe, the northwest portion of the Iberian Peninsula, the Gulf of Lyon, the Strait of Gibraltar, and the northwest coast of Turkey show no change or increase in wind power, revealing these locations as the most suitable for installing and maintaining offshore wind farms in the future. The installation of wind farms is subject to restrictions established under international law, European law, and the domestic legal framework of each EU member state. Europe is moving toward streamlining of licensing procedures, reducing subsidies, and implementing auction systems.

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications.

Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century?

Former studies about coastal upwelling along the Western Iberian Peninsula (WIP) using historical data indicated contradictory results, showing either its strengthening or reduction, while previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicated that global warming is likely to intensify this phenomenon although predicting different rates and not justifying the patterns found. Taking advantage of the recent high spatial resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections from EURO-CORDEX project (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 8.5), detailed higher accuracy estimations of the spatio-temporal trends of Upwelling Index (UI) along the WIP coast were performed in this study, integrating the coastal mesoscale effects within the framework of climate change. Additionally, this research brings new insights about the origin of the WIP coastal upwelling intensification over the next century. These new projections clarified the upwelling strengthening rates predicted along the coast of the WIP from 2006 to 2099 revealing more prominent changes in the northern limit of the region (25-30m3s-1km-1 per decade between 41.5 and 42.5°N). Trends observed at high latitudes of the region were found to be induced by the displacement of the Azores High, which will intensify (0.03hPa per decade) and drift northeastward (10km per decade) during the 21st century.

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics: Applications to migration of radionuclides in confined aqueous systems.

A smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) model is presented for simulating the decay chain transport of radionuclides in confined aqueous solutions. The SPH formulation is based on the open-source parallel code DualSPHysics extended to solve the advective-diffusion equation for the evolution of the concentration field coupled to the fluid-dynamic equations, including the effects of radioactive decay of the tracer contaminants. The performance of the method is demonstrated for environmental engineering problems dealing with the transport of contaminants in still and flowing water. The results from a series of benchmark test calculations are described in two- and three-space dimensions, where the advection, diffusion, and radioactive decay modes are tested separately and in combined form. The accuracy of the present SPH transport model is shown by direct comparison with the analytical solutions and results from other SPH approaches. For a given problem, convergence of the SPH solution is seen to increase with decreasing particle size and spacing.

Integration of UAV photogrammetry and SPH modelling of fluids to study runoff on real terrains.

Roads can experience runoff problems due to the intense rain discharge associated to severe storms. Two advanced tools are combined to analyse the interaction of complex water flows with real terrains. UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) photogrammetry is employed to obtain accurate topographic information on small areas, typically on the order of a few hectares. The Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) technique is applied by means of the DualSPHysics model to compute the trajectory of the water flow during extreme rain events. The use of engineering solutions to palliate flood events is also analysed. The study case simulates how the collected water can flow into a close road and how precautionary measures can be effective to drain water under extreme conditions. The amount of water arriving at the road is calculated under different protection scenarios and the efficiency of a ditch is observed to decrease when sedimentation reduces its depth.

Unusual circulation patterns of the Rias Baixas induced by Minho freshwater intrusion (NW of the Iberian Peninsula).

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). The buoyancy generated by the Minho estuarine plume can reverse the normal circulation pattern inside the Rias Baixas affecting the exchange between the Rias and the ocean, changing the input of nutrients. Nevertheless, this inversion of the circulation patterns is not a well-monitored phenomenon. The only published results based on in situ data related to the presence of the Minho River plume inside the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra correspond to an event measured on spring 1998. In this case unexpectedly higher inflow surface current velocities were found at the Ria de Pontevedra, located further away from Minho River. Thus, the main aim of this study is to research the main factors inducing this unusual pattern on the circulation of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. A numerical model implementation of MOHID previously developed, calibrated, and validated for this coastal area was used. Several scenarios were performed in order to explain the individual effect of the Minho River, rivers discharging into each Rias, and estuarine morphology changes. According to the model results, the Minho River discharge is a key factor in the establishment of the negative circulation, while small rivers inside the Rias slightly attenuate this circulation. The negative circulation was stronger in Ria de Pontevedra independently of the distance of this coastal system from the Minho River mouth, showing that morphologic estuarine features are the main factor justifying the different local circulation patterns.

Mixed layer depth trends in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010.

Wintertime trends in mixed layer depth (MLD) were calculated in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010 using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package. The reliability of the SODA database was confirmed correlating its results with those obtained from the experimental Argo database over the period 2003-2010. An iso-thermal layer depth (TLD) and an iso-pycnal layer depth (PLD) were defined using the threshold difference method with ΔT = 0.5°C and Δσθ = 0.125 kg/m3. Wintertime trends of the MLD were calculated using winter extended (December-March) anomalies and annual maxima. Trends calculated for the whole Bay of Biscay using both parameters (TLD and PLD) showed to be dependent on the area. Thus, MLD became deeper in the southeastern corner and shallower in the rest of the area. Air temperature was shown to play a key role in regulating the different spatial behavior of the MLD. Negative air temperature trends localized in the southeastern corner coincide with MLD deepening in this area, while, positive air temperature trends are associated to MLD shoaling in the rest of the bay. Additionally, the temperature trend calculated along the first 700 m of the water column is in good agreement with the different spatial behavior revealed for the MLD trend.

Combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on sea surface temperature in the Alborán Sea.

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.

Variability of coastal and ocean water temperature in the upper 700 m along the Western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006.

Temperature is observed to have different trends at coastal and ocean locations along the western Iberian Peninsula from 1975 to 2006, which corresponds to the last warming period in the area under study. The analysis was carried out by means of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Reanalysis data are available at monthly scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and a vertical resolution of 40 levels, which allows obtaining information beneath the sea surface. Only the first 21 vertical levels (from 5.0 m to 729.35 m) were considered here, since the most important changes in heat content observed for the world ocean during the last decades, correspond to the upper 700 m. Warming was observed to be considerably higher at ocean locations than at coastal ones. Ocean warming ranged from values on the order of 0.3 °C dec(-1) near surface to less than 0.1 °C dec(-1) at 500 m, while coastal warming showed values close to 0.2 °C dec(-1) near surface, decreasing rapidly below 0.1 °C dec(-1) for depths on the order of 50 m. The heat content anomaly for the upper 700 m, showed a sharp increase from coast (0.46 Wm(-2)) to ocean (1.59 Wm(-2)). The difference between coastal and ocean values was related to the presence of coastal upwelling, which partially inhibits the warming from surface of near shore water.

GPUs, a new tool of acceleration in CFD: efficiency and reliability on smoothed particle hydrodynamics methods.

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is a numerical method commonly used in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to simulate complex free-surface flows. Simulations with this mesh-free particle method far exceed the capacity of a single processor. In this paper, as part of a dual-functioning code for either central processing units (CPUs) or Graphics Processor Units (GPUs), a parallelisation using GPUs is presented. The GPU parallelisation technique uses the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) of nVidia devices. Simulations with more than one million particles on a single GPU card exhibit speedups of up to two orders of magnitude over using a single-core CPU. It is demonstrated that the code achieves different speedups with different CUDA-enabled GPUs. The numerical behaviour of the SPH code is validated with a standard benchmark test case of dam break flow impacting on an obstacle where good agreement with the experimental results is observed. Both the achieved speed-ups and the quantitative agreement with experiments suggest that CUDA-based GPU programming can be used in SPH methods with efficiency and reliability.

Unidirectional mechanism for reentrant activity generation in excitable media.

A closed excitable pathway with one point-to-point connection is used to generate a rotating wave both in experiments using the photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky system and numerically with an Oregonator reaction-diffusion model. By varying the excitability and geometrical properties of the medium, propagation can be made unidirectional or bidirectional, giving rise, respectively, to the existence or not of sustained reentrant activity in a closed excitable track.