Predicting the likelihood and intensity of mosquito infection from sex specific Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte density.

Understanding the importance of gametocyte density on human-to-mosquito transmission is of immediate relevance to malaria control. Previous work (Churcher et al., 2013) indicated a complex relationship between gametocyte density and mosquito infection. Here we use data from 148 feeding experiments on naturally infected gametocyte carriers to show that the relationship is much simpler and depends on both female and male parasite density. The proportion of mosquitoes infected is primarily determined by the density of female gametocytes though transmission from low gametocyte densities may be impeded by a lack of male parasites. Improved precision of gametocyte quantification simplifies the shape of the relationship with infection increasing rapidly before plateauing at higher densities. The mean number of oocysts per mosquito rises quickly with gametocyte density but continues to increase across densities examined. The work highlights the importance of measuring both female and male gametocyte density when estimating the human reservoir of infection.

Variation in natural exposure to anopheles mosquitoes and its effects on malaria transmission.

Variation in biting frequency by Anopheles mosquitoes can explain some of the heterogeneity in malaria transmission in endemic areas. In this study in Burkina Faso, we assessed natural exposure to mosquitoes by matching the genotype of blood meals from 1066 mosquitoes with blood from residents of local households. We observed that the distribution of mosquito bites exceeded the Pareto rule (20/80) in two of the three surveys performed (20/85, 76, and 96) and, at its most pronounced, is estimated to have profound epidemiological consequences, inflating the basic reproduction number of malaria by 8-fold. The distribution of bites from sporozoite-positive mosquitoes followed a similar pattern, with a small number of individuals within households receiving multiple potentially infectious bites over the period of a few days. Together, our findings indicate that heterogeneity in mosquito exposure contributes considerably to heterogeneity in infection risk and suggest significant variation in malaria transmission potential.