Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil / Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Expression of Foxp3, TGF-ß and IL-10 in American cutaneous leishmaniasis lesions.

Regulatory T cells (Tregs) are a unique population of CD25+CD4+ T cells that regulate innate and adaptive immune responses and have the ability to control the excessive or misdirected effects of the immune system. This modulation involves different mechanisms, such as the suppression of T cell proliferation and cytokine production, the secretion of suppressive cytokines (IL-10 and TGF-ß) and the induction of effector T cell apoptosis in humans with infectious diseases such as Leishmania infections. The aim of this study was to evaluate the expression of Foxp3, IL-10 and TGF-ß through immunohistochemistry in 22 skin biopsies of patients with localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (LCL) caused by Leishmania (Viannia) spp. from an endemic area in pre-Amazonian area of Maranhão State, Brazil. The density of these markers was also analyzed according to the species of parasite and the progression of the disease. The cellular density was 234 cells/mm(2) for Foxp3+ cells, 357 cells/mm(2) for TGF-ß+ cells and 648 cells/mm(2) for IL-10+ cells in the studied skin lesions. The analysis of the cellular density of these immunological markers in relation to the species of Leishmania demonstrated that lesions caused by L. (V.) braziliensis had a lower density of Foxp3+ cells than lesions caused by L. (Viannia) spp. The expression of IL-10 was also lower in lesions caused by L. (V.) braziliensis. There were no significant differences in TGF-ß expression between the two groups. The evaluation of these markers according to the progression of the disease did not reveal any significant differences. These findings suggest that Treg Foxp3+ cells, IL-10, and TGF-ß play important roles in the immunopathogenesis of LCL and that these roles differ depending on the causal Leishmania species.

[Identification of Vibrio spp bacteria on skin lesions of fisherman in the county of Raposa-MA]. / Pesquisa de bactérias do gênero Vibrio em feridas cutâneas de pescadores do município de Raposa-MA.

The study was undertaken aiming at identifying bacteria from the county of Raposa in the state of Maranhão. The clinical sample was collected by using a swab and held in a Cary-Blair transport medium. Enrichment in alkaline peptone water, isolation in TCBS selective indicator medium and biochemical coding of species were used for laboratory processing. Fifty fisherman with age varying from 12-65 years took part on the study. Vibrio bacteria isolated in 21 subjects had been identified. There was a predominance of V. alginolyticus (66.6%) followed by V. parahaemolyticus (42.8%), and V. cholerae non-O1 (9.5%). Lesions predominated on lower limbs, presenting hyperhemia, swelling, secretion, and pain. Some species of gram-negative bacteria of the Serratia, Proteus, Escherichia, Citrobacter, Enterobacter associated to the vibrios were isolated, as well as other non-fermenting bacteria (30.9) and gram-positive bacteria of the genos Staphylococcus.

[Cholelithiasis in chronic Chageas' disease patients]. / Colelitíase em chagásicos crônicos.

The studies on the occurrence of biliary lithiasis in patients with chronic Chagas' disease have shown conflicting results. Aiming at contributing to a better understanding of the topic was assessed, by ultrasonographic scan, the frequency of Colelithiasis in chagasic patients with different anatomo-clinical forms of the disease. A total of 128 patients were studied, 85 males (mean age: 53 +/- 13 years) and 43 females (mean age: 53 +/_ 10 years) nineteen males and 18 females had the cardiac form ; 32 males and 19 females the digestive form; 20 males and 3 females the cardiac and digestive forms simultaneously; and 14 males and 3 females the indeterminate form. Controls were a series of 1139 individuals without Chagas' disease, 716 males and 423 females (mean age 46 +/_ 14 years for both sexes), who were submitted to postmortem examination. The frequency of cholelithiasis in chagasic males (14.1%) was significantly higher than in the controls (6%); by subgroup, it was significantly higher in the individuals with the cardiac and cardiac-digestive form (26.3% and 20% respectively), but not in those with the digestive form (9.4%). The frequency of colelithiasis was also significantly higher in chagasic females in the total (42%) and in the cardiac (50%) and digestive (31.6%) forms, when compared to the control group (14%). Male and female chronic chagasic patients have an increased frequency of colelithiasis, and therefore the preoccupation about this finding should not be restricted to the digestive form of the disease, as previous studies on this subject have suggested.

Frequency of cholelithiasis in alcoholics.

In order to determine the frequency of biliary lithiasis in alcoholic patients without signs of hepatic cirrhosis, we submitted 106 male alcoholics (mean age, 42.2 +/- 11.2 years) to ultrasound examination of the biliary system. Cholelithiasis was present in 6 (5.6%). We did not observe any association between the quantity of ethanol consumed and/or the time of consumption and the presence of cholelithiasis. There was no significant difference between the frequency of cholelithiasis in these patients and that found in autopsies carried out on 716 male patients (6%) at the Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, during the period 1982 to 1993. Thus, we conclude that in the cases we examined, alcoholism did not represent a risk factor for biliary lithogenesis.

Frequency of cholelithiasis in alcoholics

In order to determine the frequency of biliary lithiasis in alcoholic patients without signs of hepatic cirrhosis, we submitted 106 male alcoholics (mean age, 42.2 + or - 11.2 years) to ultrasound examination of the biliary system. Cholelithiasis was present in 6 (5.6 percent). We did not observe any association between the quantity of ethanol consumed and/ or the time of consumption and the presence of cholelithiasis. There was no significant difference between the frequency of cholelithiasis in these patients and that found in autopsies carried out on 716 male patients (6 percent) at the Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, during the period 1982 to 1993. thus, we conclude that in the cases we examined, alcoholism did not represent a risk factor for biliary lithogenesis

Aspectos radiologicos do comprometimento pulmonar na estrongiloidiase disseminada. A proposito de tres casos. / Radiological aspects of pulmonary involvement in disseminated strongyloidiasis. Apropos of 3 cases

A analise clinico-radiologica de tres casos de estrongiloidiase disseminada com comprometimento pulmonar e apresentada e comentada pelos autores, que discutem e enfatizam a necessidade de ter sempre em mente esta condicao patologica particularmente diante de estados umunossupressores