ABSTRACT
The global-local supply chains are affected by the forward and downward propagation of COVID-19. The pandemic disruption is a low-frequency and high-impact (black swan) event. Adapting to the "New Normal" situation requires adequate risk mitigation strategies. This study proposes a methodology to implement a risk mitigation strategy during supply chain disruptions. Random demand accumulation strategies are considered to identify the disruption-driven challenges under different pre and post-disruption scenarios. The best mitigation strategy and the optimal location of distribution centers to maximize the overall profit were determined using simulation-based optimization, greenfield analysis, and network optimization techniques. The proposed model is then evaluated and validated using appropriate sensitivity analysis. The main contribution of the study is to (i) perform cluster-based supply chain disruption analysis, (ii) propose a resilient and flexible model to illustrate the proactive and reactive measures for the ripple effect, (iii) prepare the supply chain for future pandemic-like crises, and (v) reveal the relationship between the pandemic impact and supply chain resilience. A case study of an ice cream manufacturer is used to demonstrate the proposed model.