Policy and market forces delay real estate price declines on the US coast.

Despite increasing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms, US coastal communities continue to attract relatively high-income residents, and coastal property values continue to rise. To understand this seeming paradox and explore policy responses, we develop the Coastal Home Ownership Model (C-HOM) and analyze the long-term evolution of coastal real estate markets. C-HOM incorporates changing physical attributes of the coast, economic values of these attributes, and dynamic risks associated with storms and flooding. Resident owners, renters, and non-resident investors jointly determine coastal property values and the policy choices that influence the physical evolution of the coast. In the coupled system, we find that subsidies for coastal management, such as beach nourishment, tax advantages for high-income property owners, and stable or increasing property values outside the coastal zone all dampen the effects of SLR on coastal property values. The effects, however, are temporary and only delay precipitous declines as total inundation approaches. By removing subsidies, prices would more accurately reflect risks from SLR but also trigger more coastal gentrification, as relatively high-income owners enter the market and self-finance nourishment. Our results suggest a policy tradeoff between slowing demographic transitions in coastal communities and allowing property markets to adjust smoothly to risks from climate change.

Spread externalities and the implications of heterogeneous ecological capacity constraints.

We develop a spatial-dynamic model of resource management in the presence of externalities, such as the spread of harmful invasive species, and show that ecological capacity constraints influence optimal management strategies across space. We use integer-programming methods to solve for optimal control strategies in both homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes. Using the spread of gypsy moths as an application, our results show that optimal levels of control vary over space in landscapes with heterogeneous capacity constraints. Optimal outcomes depend on the marginal costs and damages associated with the externality and the emergence of spread externalities from relative differences in population levels between adjacent patches. In models with high degrees of heterogeneity, we show that a naïve policy assuming homogeneous carrying capacity results in a significantly higher welfare losses from the externality.

The impact of intensity on perceived risk from unconventional shale gas development.

The recent boom in the extraction of natural gas from subsurface shale deposits due to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies has raised concern around environmental risks. Reliable measures of how residents view these risks are therefore a necessary first step in evaluating policies that regulate the industry through risk mitigation measures. We conduct a choice experiment targeting residents in an area of Ohio with significant shale drilling activity, and find that households are willing to pay to avoid high intensities of shale development and truck traffic. Our analysis presents new policy-relevant evidence of preferences associated with unconventional shale gas reserves, and highlights the tradeoffs between activity intensity at each site and the number of sites in aggregate.

Characterisation of the human oral microbiome in patients with coronary artery disease using next-generation sequencing of 16SrRNA amplicons.

INTRODUCTION: Oral health is suspected to be linked to heart disease since species of bacteria that cause periodontitis and dental caries have been found in the atherosclerotic plaque in arteries in the heart. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to characterize the oral microbiome in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and in a patient with dental caries (DC) without any clinical symptoms of CAD. METHODS: DNA was extracted from the oral swabs collected from the patients and sequencing was performed by next generation sequencing method using Illumina (MiSeq) platform. The resulting sequencing data set was analysed using QIIME. RESULTS: A total of 31 phyla were found in all the samples. The predominant phylum found in both CAD and DC was Firmicutes (46.09% & 38.98%), Proteobacteria (17.73% & 9.79%), Fusobacteria (13.44% & 17.95%), Bacteroidetes (11.82% & 22.73%), Actinobacteria (8.33% & 7.71%) and TM7 (2.25% & 2.71%). We found a similarity in the bacterial diversity in the two groups of patients. CONCLUSION: A comparison of the oral microbiome in patients with CAD and DC shows a similarity in the composition of the oral microbiota with variations in the proportion of a few genera.

Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.