Estimating infection prevalence using the positive predictive value of self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests: An exploration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance data in the Netherlands from May 2021 to April 2022.

Measuring the severity of the disease of SARS-CoV-2 is complicated by the lack of valid estimations for the prevalence of infection. Self-administered rapid antigen diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) were available in the Netherlands since March 2021, requiring confirmation by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for positive results. We explored the possibility of utilizing the positive predictive value (PPV) of Ag-RDTs to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence. We used data from all Public Health service testing facilities between 3 May 2021 and 10 April 2022. The PPV was calculated by dividing the number of positive RT-PCR results by the total number of confirmation tests performed, and used to estimate the prevalence and compared with the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions. In total 3,599,894 cases were included. The overall PPV was 91.8% and 88.8% were symptomatic. During our study period, the estimated prevalence ranged between 2-22% in symptomatic individuals and 2-14% in asymptomatic individuals, with a correlation between the estimated prevalence and hospital admissions two weeks later (r = 0.68 (p<0.01) and r = 0.60 (p<0.01) for symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals). The PPV of Ag-RDTs can help estimate changes in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, especially when used in conjunction with other surveillance systems. However, the used method probably overestimated the true prevalence because of unmonitored differences in test propensity between individuals.

Investigating SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections per variant and vaccine type.

Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in fully vaccinated individuals, in spite of the high efficacy of the currently available vaccines, proven in trials and real-world studies. Several variants of concern (VOC) have been proffered to be associated with breakthrough infections following immunization. In this study, we investigated 378 breakthrough infections recorded between January and July 2021 and compared the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 genotypes identified in 225 fully vaccinated individuals to the frequency of circulating community lineages in the region of South Limburg (The Netherlands) in a week-by-week comparison. Although the proportion of breakthrough infections was relatively low and stable when the Alpha variant was predominant, the rapid emergence of the Delta variant lead to a strong increase in breakthrough infections, with a higher relative proportion of individuals vaccinated with Vaxzevria or Jcovden being infected compared to those immunized with mRNA-based vaccines. A significant difference in median age was observed when comparing fully vaccinated individuals with severe symptoms (83 years) to asymptomatic cases (46.5 years) or individuals with mild-to-moderate symptoms (42 years). There was no association between SARS-CoV-2 genotype or vaccine type and disease symptoms. Furthermore, the majority of adaptive mutations were concentrated in the N-terminal domain of the Spike protein, highlighting its role in immune evasion. Interestingly, symptomatic individuals harbored significantly higher SARS-CoV-2 loads than asymptomatic vaccinated individuals and breakthrough infections caused by the Delta variant were associated with increased viral loads compared to those caused by the Alpha variant. In addition, we investigated the role of the Omicron variant in causing breakthrough infections by analyzing 135 samples that were randomly selected for genomic surveillance during the transition period from Delta to Omicron. We found that the proportion of Omicron vs. Delta infections was significantly higher in individuals who received a booster vaccine compared to both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated individuals. Altogether, these results indicate that the emergence of the Delta variant and in particular Omicron has lowered the efficiency of particular vaccine types to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and that, although rare, the elderly are particularly at risk of becoming severely infected as the consequence of a breakthrough infection.

Increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) in children: three large primary school outbreaks revealed by whole genome sequencing in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Variant of concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was the dominant strain in the Netherlands between March 2021-June 2021. We describe three primary school outbreaks due to the alpha variant using whole genome sequencing with evidence of large-scale transmission among children, teachers and their household contacts. METHOD: All outbreaks described were investigated by the South Limburg Public Health Service, the Netherlands. A case was defined as an individual with a real-time polymerase chain reaction test or antigen test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Whole genome sequencing was performed on random samples from at least one child and one teacher of each affected class. RESULTS: Peak attack rates in classes were 53%, 33% and 39%, respectively. Specific genotypes were identified for each school across a majority of affected classes. Attack rates were high among staff members, likely to promote staff-to-children transmission. Cases in some classes were limited to children, indicating child-to-child transmission. At 39%, the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household contacts of infected children was remarkably high, similar to SAR in household contacts of staff members (42%). SAR of household contacts of asymptomatic children was only 9%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest increased transmissibility of the alpha variant in children compared to preceding non-VOC variants, consistent with a substantial rise in the incidence of cases observed in primary schools and children aged 5-12 since the alpha variant became dominant in March 2021. Lack of mandatory masking, insufficient ventilation and lack of physical distancing also probably contributed to the school outbreaks. The rise of the delta variant (B.1.617.2) since July 2021 which is estimated to be 55% more transmissible than the alpha variant, provides additional urgency to adequate infection prevention in school settings.

Linked nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak in three facilities for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities due to SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.519 with spike mutation T478K in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) living in congregated settings have increased risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality. Little is known about variant B.1.1.519 with spike mutation T478K, dominant in Mexico. We describe a linked SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.519 outbreak in three IDD facilities in the Netherlands. METHODS: Following notification of the index, subsequent cases were identified through serial PCR group testing. Positive specimens were submitted for whole-genome-sequencing. Clinical information was gathered through interviews with staff members of the three facilities. RESULTS: Attack rate (AR) in clients of the index facility was 92% (23/25), total AR in clients 45% (33/73) and in staff members 24% (8/34). 55% (18/33) of client cases were asymptomatic, versus 25% (2/8) of staff members. Five client cases (15%) were hospitalized, two died (6%). Sequencing yielded the same specific B.1.1.519 genotype in all three facilities. No significant difference in median viral load was established comparing the B.1.1.519 variant with other circulating variants. The index of the linked outbreak reported no travel history or link to suspected or confirmed cases suggesting regional surveillance. Observed peak regional prevalence of B.1.1.519 during the outbreak supports this. CONCLUSION: AR, morbidity and mortality prior to control measures taking effect were high, probably related to the specific characteristics of the IDD setting and its clients. We assessed no evidence for intrinsic contributing properties of variant B.1.1.519. Our study argues for enhanced infection prevention protocols in the IDD setting, and prioritization of this group for vaccination against COVID-19.