Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models.

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Alignment of ordinal and quantitative species abundance and size indices for the detection of shifting baseline syndrome.

Loss of knowledge about historical environmental conditions and species' abundances threatens how new generations potentially perceive their environment and take action. The intergenerational shift in perceptions of environmental thresholds is a phenomenon frequently termed shifting baseline syndrome (SBS). The goals of this study were (1) to determine relationships between ordinal scores (e.g., few, many) and quantitative measures (e.g., estimates of population size) used by members of a Maori community in New Zealand to score indicators for understanding the abundance of forest resources, and (2) to then analyze these relationships according to people's age to detect the effects of SBS and the rate that this shift was occurring for each indicator. We detected consistent relationships between the ordinal scores and quantitative measures for six forest indicators provided by community members. However, there was only a high degree of confidence about the direction of the age effect for three abundance indicators (Kereru [New Zealand Pigeon], Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae, 15% increase [CI = 5.1-27.1%] in flock size for any given ordinal category for each decade increase in age; long-finned eel, Anguilla dieffenbachia, 30% decrease [CI = -45.1% to -11.3%] in the distance (m) walked along a riverbank between observations of an eel for any given ordinal category for each decade increase in age; and Australian brush-tailed possum, Trichosurus vulpecula, 27% decrease [CI = -38.9% to -13.9%] in the distance (m) walked through forest between observations of possum sign for any given ordinal category for each decade increase in age), but the effect was statistically strong for all three. The decoupling of indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLC) from their traditional lands and biodiversity by an array of political, environmental, social and economic drivers and feedback mechanisms have contributed to and exacerbated the conditions for SBS. However, the protection of customary practices to engage with the environment, including the harvest of natural resources, community-based environmental monitoring initiatives, and cultural immersion education programs offer opportunities for IPLC to mitigate the often deleterious effects of SBS.

Refining kill-trap networks for the control of small mammalian predators in invaded ecosystems.

Population control of invasive mammal pests is an ongoing process in many conservation projects. In New Zealand, introduced wild domestic cats and mustelids have a severe impact on biodiversity, and methods to reduce and maintain predator populations to low levels have been developed involving poisoning and trapping. Such conservation efforts often run on limited funds, so ways to minimize costs while not compromising their effectiveness are constantly being sought. Here we report on a case example in a 150 km2 area in the North Island, New Zealand, where high predator numbers were reduced by 70-80% in an initial 'knockdown' trapping program, using the full set of traps available in the fixed network and frequent checks, and then maintained at low density using maintenance trapping with less frequent checking. We developed and applied a simulation model of predator captures, based on trapping data, to investigate the effect on control efficacy of varying numbers of trap sites and numbers of traps per site. Included in the simulations were captures of other, non-target, introduced mammals. Simulations indicated that there are potentially significant savings to be made, at least in the maintenance phase of a long-term predator control programme, by first reducing the number of traps in large-scale networks without dramatically reducing efficacy, and then, possibly, re-locating traps according to spatial heterogeneity in observed captures of the target species.

Latitudinal, sex and inter-specific differences in mercury and other trace metal concentrations in Adélie and Emperor penguins in the Ross Sea, Antarctica.

We sought to determine mercury (Hg) and other trace metal concentrations in Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) breast feathers from the Ross Sea, Antarctica, and relate those concentrations to the trophic position and the habitats in which each of these species forage. Adélie penguin feathers from the southern Ross Sea colonies were higher in Hg than those sampled further north in the Ross Sea, potentially due to greater exposure to local sources, such as volcanism. Female Adélie penguins had lower feather total Hg concentrations than males. This may reflect female penguin's capacity to eliminate Hg through the egg development and laying process, or the larger and/or older prey items that male birds can consume, reflected by their higher trophic position. Emperor penguins have higher Hg concentrations than Adélie penguins which is also partially explained by Adélie penguins feeding at lower trophic levels than emperor penguins.

Roll-Back Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) From Wildlife in New Zealand: Concepts, Evolving Approaches, and Progress.

The New Zealand government and agricultural industries recently jointly adopted the goal of nationally eradicating bovine tuberculosis (TB) from livestock and wildlife reservoirs by 2055. Only Australia has eradicated TB from a wildlife maintenance host. Elsewhere the disease is often self-sustaining in a variety of wildlife hosts, usually making eradication an intractable problem. The New Zealand strategy for eradicating TB from wildlife is based on quantitative assessment using a Bayesian "Proof of Freedom" framework. This is used to assess the probability that TB has been locally eradicated from a given area. Here we describe the framework (the concepts, methods and tools used to assess TB freedom and how they are being applied and updated). We then summarize recent decision theory research aimed at optimizing the balance between the risk of falsely declaring areas free and the risk of overspending on disease management when the disease is already locally extinct. We explore potential new approaches for further optimizing the allocation of management resources, especially for places where existing methods are impractical or expensive, including using livestock as sentinels. We also describe how the progressive roll-back of locally eradicated areas scales up operationally and quantitatively to achieve and confirm eradication success over the entire country. Lastly, we review the progress made since the framework was first formally adopted in 2011. We conclude that eradication of TB from New Zealand is feasible, and that we are well on the way to achieving this outcome.

Complementarity of indigenous and western scientific approaches for monitoring forest state.

Cross-cultural environmental monitoring systems inform on a broad suite of indicators relevant to both scientific and local communities. In this study, we used forest-plot-based survey measures developed by western scientists and a set of community-based survey indicators developed by Maori, the indigenous people of New Zealand (NZ), to compare the current state of two ecologically congruent forests (Whirinaki and Ruatahuna), as they related to a historic Ruatahuna forest state (Baseline; 1955-1975) in NZ. Both the plot-based and community-based field surveys indicated that the Whirinaki forest was in a better state than the Ruatahuna forest. This was supported by a stronger mauri (concept of life essence) rating assigned by Maori elders to the Whirinaki forest compared with the Ruatahuna forests. However, both the Ruatahuna and Whirinaki forests were deemed to be in a significantly poorer state than the Baseline forest. A cross-cultural monitoring system provides understanding of forest state that both managers and communities can use for decision-making. Historical baselines of forest state can provide ecological targets for restoration initiatives and also identify where on the restoration continuum current forest indicators lie. The alignment of plot-based measures with community-based indicators offers possibilities for future-proofing a cross-cultural monitoring system and buffering it from intergenerational shifts in ecological baselines. The opportunity for indigenous peoples and local communities to apply their traditional ways of knowing, and interpret and act on information they understand are crucial components of cross-cultural environmental management regimes.

Species- and site-specific impacts of an invasive herbivore on tree survival in mixed forests.

Invasive herbivores are often managed to limit their negative impact on plant populations, but herbivore density - plant damage relationships are notoriously spatially and temporally variable. Site and species characteristics (both plant and herbivore) must be considered when assessing the potential for herbivore damage, making it difficult to set thresholds for efficient management. Using the invasive brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula in New Zealand as a case study, we parameterized a generic model to predict annual probability of browse-induced mortality of five tree species at 12 sites. We compared predicted and observed tree mortality for each species + site combination to establish herbivore abundance - tree mortality thresholds for each site on a single and combined tree species basis. Model results indicated it is likely that possum browse was the primary cause of all tree mortality at nine of the 12 species-site combinations, allowing us to estimate site-specific thresholds below which possum population numbers should be reduced and maintained to keep tree mortality under a predetermined level, for example 0.5% per year. The browse model can be used to set site- and species-specific management action thresholds, and can be adapted easily for other plant or herbivore species. Results for multiple plant or herbivore species at a single site can be combined to create conservative, site-wide management strategies, and used to: determine which sites will be affected most by changes in herbivore abundance; quantify thresholds for herbivore management; and justify expenditure on herbivore control.

A modelling framework for predicting the optimal balance between control and surveillance effort in the local eradication of tuberculosis in New Zealand wildlife.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) impacts livestock farming in New Zealand, where the introduced marsupial brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the wildlife maintenance host for Mycobacterium bovis. New Zealand has implemented a campaign to control TB using a co-ordinated programme of livestock diagnostic testing and large-scale culling of possums, with the long-term aim of TB eradication. For management of the disease in wildlife, methods that can optimise the balance between control and surveillance effort will facilitate the objective of eradication on a fixed or limited budget. We modelled and compared management options to optimise the balance between the two activities necessary to achieve and verify eradication of TB from New Zealand wildlife: the number of lethal population control operations required to halt the M. bovis infection cycle in possums, and the subsequent surveillance effort needed to confidently declare TB freedom post-control. The approach considered the costs of control and surveillance, as well as the potential costs of re-control resulting from false declaration of TB freedom. The required years of surveillance decreased with increasing numbers of possum lethal control operations but the overall time to declare TB freedom depended on additional factors, such as the probability of freedom from disease after control and the probability of success of mop-up control, i.e. retroactive culling following detection of persistent disease in the residual possum population. The total expected cost was also dependent on a number of factors, many of which had wide cost ranges, suggesting that an optimal strategy is unlikely to be singular and fixed, but will likely vary for each different area being considered. Our approach provides a simple framework that considers the known and potential costs of possum control and TB surveillance, enabling managers to optimise the balance between these two activities to achieve and prove eradication of a wildlife disease, or the pest species that transmits it, in the most expedient and economic way. This cost- and risk-evaluation approach may be applicable to other wildlife disease problems where limited management funds exist.

Cost-Effective Large-Scale Occupancy-Abundance Monitoring of Invasive Brushtail Possums (Trichosurus Vulpecula) on New Zealand's Public Conservation Land.

There is interest in large-scale and unbiased monitoring of biodiversity status and trend, but there are few published examples of such monitoring being implemented. The New Zealand Department of Conservation is implementing a monitoring program that involves sampling selected biota at the vertices of an 8-km grid superimposed over the 8.6 million hectares of public conservation land that it manages. The introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus Vulpecula) is a major threat to some biota and is one taxon that they wish to monitor and report on. A pilot study revealed that the traditional method of monitoring possums using leg-hold traps set for two nights, termed the Trap Catch Index, was a constraint on the cost and logistical feasibility of the monitoring program. A phased implementation of the monitoring program was therefore conducted to collect data for evaluating the trade-off between possum occupancy-abundance estimates and the costs of sampling for one night rather than two nights. Reducing trapping effort from two nights to one night along four trap-lines reduced the estimated costs of monitoring by 5.8% due to savings in labour, food and allowances; it had a negligible effect on estimated national possum occupancy but resulted in slightly higher and less precise estimates of relative possum abundance. Monitoring possums for one night rather than two nights would provide an annual saving of NZ$72,400, with 271 fewer field days required for sampling. Possums occupied 60% (95% credible interval; 53-68) of sampling locations on New Zealand's public conservation land, with a mean relative abundance (Trap Catch Index) of 2.7% (2.0-3.5). Possum occupancy and abundance were higher in forest than in non-forest habitats. Our case study illustrates the need to evaluate relationships between sampling design, cost, and occupancy-abundance estimates when designing and implementing large-scale occupancy-abundance monitoring programs.

Optimising the application of multiple-capture traps for invasive species management using spatial simulation.

Internationally, invasive vertebrate species pose a significant threat to biodiversity, agricultural production and human health. To manage these species a wide range of tools, including traps, are used. In New Zealand, brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), stoats (Mustela ermine), and ship rats (Rattus rattus) are invasive and there is an ongoing demand for cost-effective non-toxic methods for controlling these pests. Recently, traps with multiple-capture capability have been developed which, because they do not require regular operator-checking, are purported to be more cost-effective than traditional single-capture traps. However, when pest populations are being maintained at low densities (as is typical of orchestrated pest management programmes) it remains uncertain if it is more cost-effective to use fewer multiple-capture traps or more single-capture traps. To address this uncertainty, we used an individual-based spatially explicit modelling approach to determine the likely maximum animal-captures per trap, given stated pest densities and defined times traps are left between checks. In the simulation, single- or multiple-capture traps were spaced according to best practice pest-control guidelines. For possums with maintenance densities set at the lowest level (i.e. 0.5/ha), 98% of all simulated possums were captured with only a single capacity trap set at each site. When possum density was increased to moderate levels of 3/ha, having a capacity of three captures per trap caught 97% of all simulated possums. Results were similar for stoats, although only two potential captures per site were sufficient to capture 99% of simulated stoats. For rats, which were simulated at their typically higher densities, even a six-capture capacity per trap site only resulted in 80% kill. Depending on target species, prevailing density and extent of immigration, the most cost-effective strategy for pest control in New Zealand might be to deploy several single-capture traps rather than investing in fewer, but more expense, multiple-capture traps.

Using presence-only and presence-absence data to estimate the current and potential distributions of established invasive species.

1.Predicting the current and potential distributions of established invasive species is critical for evaluating management options, but methods for differentiating these distributions have received little attention. In particular, there is uncertainty among invasive species managers about the value of information from incidental sightings compared to data from designed field surveys. This study compares the two approaches, and develops a unifying framework, using the case of invasive sambar deer Cervus unicolor in Victoria, Australia.2.We first used 391 incidental sightings of sambar deer and 12 biophysical variables to construct a presence-only habitat suitability model using Maxent. We then used that model to stratify field sampling, with proportionately greater sampling of cells with high predicted habitat suitability. Field sampling, consisting of faecal pellet surveys, sign surveys and camera trapping, was conducted in 80 4-km(2) grid cells. A Bayesian state-space occupancy model was used to predict probability of suitable habitat from the field data.3.The Maxent and occupancy models predicted similar spatial distributions of habitat suitability for sambar deer in Victoria and there was a strong positive correlation between the rankings of cells by the two approaches. The congruence of the two models suggests that any spatial and detection biases in the presence-only data were relatively unimportant in our study.4.We predicted the extent of suitable habitat from the occupancy model using a threshold that gave a false negative error rate of 0·05. The current distribution was the suitable habitat within a kernel that had a 99·5% chance of including the presence locations pooled from incidental sightings and field surveys: the potential distribution was suitable habitat outside that kernel. Several discrete areas of potential distribution were identified as priorities for surveillance monitoring with the aim of detecting and managing incursions of sambar deer.5.Synthesis and applications.Our framework enables managers to robustly estimate the current and potential distributions of established invasive species using either presence-only and/or presence-absence data. Managers can then focus control and/or containment actions within the current distribution and establish surveillance monitoring to detect incursions within the potential distribution.