Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. METHODS: The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). FINDINGS: The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

The short-term effect of BMI, alcohol use, and related chronic conditions on labour market outcomes: A time-lag panel analysis utilizing European SHARE dataset.

INTRODUCTION: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) like cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes have spread at a remarkable pace in European countries over the past decades. Overweight/obesity and alcohol use are two leading risk factors contributing to both economic and epidemiological burden associated with NCDs. In OECD countries, the impact of indirect costs of obesity varies between 0.20% and 1.21% of GDP. Indirect costs of alcohol use range from 0.19% (Portugal) to 1.6% (Estonia) of GDP. AIM: To assess the longitudinal impact of alcohol use and high body-mass index (BMI) on labour market outcomes in the European region by modeling the direct effect of high BMI and alcohol use, and the effect via associated diseases. METHODS: The impact of BMI, alcohol use, and associated diseases on employment likelihood, intent to retire early, days of absenteeism, and hours of work per week, were modelled via lagged Poisson and Zero-inflated Poisson regressions, adjusting for missingness via inverse probability weighting, as appropriate, using European SHARE data. RESULTS: Controlling for other chronic conditions, being overweight increases employment likelihood among men, but not among women. Obesity decreased female, but not male, employment chances. All chronic conditions linked with high BMI negatively affected employment likelihood, and increased the intention to retire early significantly. Alcohol use positively affects employment likelihood in women at all drinking levels relative to lifetime abstainers, but only in moderate (not heavy) male drinkers. There is super-additionality of impact of NCDs on absenteeism and hours worked, presenting a key economic argument to tackle NCD prevention and compression of morbidity. IMPLICATIONS: NCD prevention is not just important for employment and hours worked, but also for employee morale, especially given increasing retirement age in Europe and globally.

Physical Activity Levels and New Public Transit: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

CONTEXT: Physical inactivity is a public health concern as it contributes to the rising burden of noncommunicable diseases. Introducing new public transportation options, such as extending or building new light rail or bus rapid transit stations, could encourage commuters to walk to and from public transit stops, thus increasing their physical activity levels. Despite previous research generally finding positive associations between public transit usage and physical activity levels, few have summarized the association between introducing new public transportation options and different intensities of physical activity. This study aimed to systematically review the current evidence and perform a meta-analysis on this association. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Ten databases were systematically searched for studies published between 1997 and 2017. To ensure comparability, study outcomes were converted to MET hours/week. A random effects meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis were then conducted. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Nine studies were identified to be included in the systematic review, of which five were eligible for meta-analysis. Pooled results suggest that building new public transit options is associated with a statistically significant increase in light to moderate physical activity levels by 1.76 MET hours/week (95% CI=0.19, 3.32, p=0.03). This is equivalent to increasing walking and other light to moderate physical activity by about 30 minutes per week, relative to baseline. No significant effect was found for the moderate to vigorous physical activity outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Results show new public transit options can substantially contribute to increasing low- to moderate-intensity exercise levels, which has the potential to improve health on a population scale.

Soft drink prices, sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries.

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999-2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks' sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity - but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m2 (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m2. Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.

Is foreign direct investment good for health in low and middle income countries? An instrumental variable approach.

There is a scarcity of quantitative research into the effect of FDI on population health in low and middle income countries (LMICs). This paper investigates the relationship using annual panel data from 85 LMICs between 1974 and 2012. When controlling for time trends, country fixed effects, correlation between repeated observations, relevant covariates, and endogeneity via a novel instrumental variable approach, we find FDI to have a beneficial effect on overall health, proxied by life expectancy. When investigating age-specific mortality rates, we find a stronger beneficial effect of FDI on adult mortality, yet no association with either infant or child mortality. Notably, FDI effects on health remain undetected in all models which do not control for endogeneity. Exploring the effect of sector-specific FDI on health in LMICs, we provide preliminary evidence of a weak inverse association between secondary (i.e. manufacturing) sector FDI and overall life expectancy. Our results thus suggest that FDI has provided an overall benefit to population health in LMICs, particularly in adults, yet investments into the secondary sector could be harmful to health.

The contribution of urbanization to non-communicable diseases: Evidence from 173 countries from 1980 to 2008.

It is widely believed that the expanding burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is in no small part the result of major macro-level determinants. We use a large amount of new data, to explore in particular the role played by urbanization - the process of the population shifting from rural to urban areas within countries - in affecting four important drivers of NCDs world-wide: diabetes prevalence, as well as average body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol level and systolic blood pressure. Urbanization is seen by many as a double-edged sword: while its beneficial economic effects are widely acknowledged, it is commonly alleged to produce adverse side effects for NCD-related health outcomes. In this paper we submit this hypothesis to extensive empirical scrutiny, covering a global set of countries from 1980-2008, and applying a range of estimation procedures. Our results indicate that urbanization appears to have contributed to an increase in average BMI and cholesterol levels: the implied difference in average total cholesterol between the most and the least urbanized countries is 0.40mmol/L, while people living in the least urbanized countries are also expected to have an up to 2.3kg/m2 lower BMI than in the most urbanized ones. Moreover, the least urbanized countries are expected to have an up to 3.2p.p. lower prevalence of diabetes among women. This association is also much stronger in the low and middle-income countries, and is likely to be mediated by energy intake-related variables, such as calorie and fat supply per capita.

Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. METHODS: We take a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model based on projected economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the WHO Global Health Observatory. The demand projections are compared with the projected growth in health worker supply and the health worker "needs" as estimated by WHO to achieve essential health coverage. RESULTS: The model predicts that, by 2030, global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers, while the supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million over the same period, resulting in a worldwide net shortage of 15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health workers will be highest among upper middle-income countries, driven by economic and population growth and aging. This results in the largest predicted shortages which may fuel global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income countries will face workforce shortages because their demand will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will face low growth in both demand and supply, which are estimated to be far below what will be needed to achieve adequate coverage of essential health services. CONCLUSIONS: In many low-income countries, demand may stay below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical phenomenon of unemployed ("surplus") health workers in those countries facing acute "needs-based" shortages. Opportunities exist to bend the trajectory of the number and types of health workers that are available to meet public health goals and the growing demand for health workers.

Does greater individual social capital improve the management of hypertension? Cross-national analysis of 61 229 individuals in 21 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Social capital, characterised by trust, reciprocity and cooperation, is positively associated with a number of health outcomes. We test the hypothesis that among hypertensive individuals, those with greater social capital are more likely to have their hypertension detected, treated and controlled. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study were collected covering 61 229 hypertensive individuals aged 35-70 years, their households and the 656 communities in which they live. Outcomes include whether hypertensive participants have their condition detected, treated and/or controlled. Multivariate statistical models adjusting for community fixed effects were used to assess the associations of three social capital measures: (1) membership of any social organisation, (2) trust in other people and (3) trust in organisations, stratified into high-income and low-income country samples. RESULTS: In low-income countries, membership of any social organisation was associated with a 3% greater likelihood of having one's hypertension detected and controlled, while greater trust in organisations significantly increased the likelihood of detection by 4%. These associations were not observed among participants in high-income countries. CONCLUSION: Although the observed associations are modest, some aspects of social capital are associated with better management of hypertension in low-income countries where health systems are often weak. Given that hypertension affects millions in these countries, even modest gains at all points along the treatment pathway could improve management for many, and translate into the prevention of thousands of cardiovascular events each year.

The impact of poor adult health on labor supply in the Russian Federation.

We examine the labor supply consequences of poor health in the Russian Federation, a country with exceptionally adverse adult health outcomes. In both baseline OLS models and in models with individual fixed effects, more serious ill-health events, somewhat surprisingly, generally have only weak effects on hours worked. At the same time, their effect on the extensive margin of labor supply is substantial. Moreover, when combining the effects on both the intensive and extensive margins, the effect of illness on hours worked increases considerably for a range of conditions. In addition, for most part of the age distribution, people with poor self-assessed health living in rural areas are less likely to stop working, compared to people living in cities. While there is no conclusive explanation for this finding, it could be related to the existence of certain barriers that prevent people with poor health from withdrawing from the labor force in order to take care of their health.

Does greater individual social capital improve the management of hypertension? Cross-national analysis of 61 229 individuals in 21 countries

INTRODUCTION:Social capital, characterised by trust, reciprocity and cooperation, is positively associated with a number of health outcomes. We test the hypothesis that among hypertensive individuals, those with greater social capital are more likely to have their hypertension detected, treated and controlled.METHODS:Cross-sectional data from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study were collected covering 61 229 hypertensive individuals aged 35-70 years, their households and the 656 communities in which they live. Outcomes include whether hypertensive participants have their condition detected, treated and/or controlled. Multivariate statistical models adjusting for community fixed effects were used to assess the associations of three social capital measures: (1) membership of any social organisation, (2) trust in other people and (3) trust in organisations, stratified into high-income and low-income country samples.

Crime and subjective well-being in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

BACKGROUND: Criminal victimisation and subjective well-being have both been linked to health outcomes, although as yet, comparatively little is known about the relationship between these two phenomena. In this study we used data from nine countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU) to examine the association between different types of crime and subjective well-being. METHODS: Data were obtained from 18,000 individuals aged 18 and above collected during the Health in Times of Transition (HITT) survey in 2010/11 in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine. Information was obtained on respondents' experience of crime (violence and theft) and self-reported affective (happiness) and cognitive (life satisfaction) well-being. Ordered probit and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analyses were undertaken to examine the associations between these variables. RESULTS: In pooled country analyses, experiencing violence was associated with significantly lower happiness and life satisfaction. Theft victimisation was associated with significantly reduced life satisfaction but not happiness. Among the individual countries, there was a more pronounced association between violent victimisation and reduced happiness in Kazakhstan and Moldova. CONCLUSIONS: The finding that criminal victimisation is linked to lower levels of subjective well-being highlights the importance of reducing crime in the fSU, and also of having effective support services in place for victims of crime to reduce its detrimental effects on health and well-being.

The impact of diabetes on employment in Mexico.

This study explores the impact of diabetes on employment in Mexico using data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) (2005), taking into account the possible endogeneity of diabetes via an instrumental variable estimation strategy. We find that diabetes significantly decreases employment probabilities for men by about 10 percentage points (p<0.01) and somewhat less so for women - 4.5 percentage points (p<0.1)--without any indication of diabetes being endogenous. Further analysis shows that diabetes mainly affects the employment probabilities of men and women above the age of 44 and also has stronger effects on the poor than on the rich, particularly for men. We also find some indication for more adverse effects of diabetes on those in the large informal labour market compared to those in formal employment. Our results highlight--for the first time--the detrimental employment impact of diabetes in a developing country.

A systematic review on health resilience to economic crises.

BACKGROUND: The health effects of recent economic crises differ markedly by population group. The objective of this systematic review is to examine evidence from longitudinal studies on factors influencing resilience for any health outcome or health behaviour among the general population living in countries exposed to financial crises. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies from six electronic databases (EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Web of Science) which used quantitative longitudinal study designs and included: (i) exposure to an economic crisis; (ii) changes in health outcomes/behaviours over time; (iii) statistical tests of associations of health risk and/or protective factors with health outcomes/behaviours. The quality of the selected studies was appraised using the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. PRISMA reporting guidelines were followed. RESULTS: From 14,584 retrieved records, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria. These studies were conducted across 10 countries in Asia, Europe and North America over the past two decades. Ten socio-demographic factors that increased or protected against health risk were identified: gender, age, education, marital status, household size, employment/occupation, income/ financial constraints, personal beliefs, health status, area of residence, and social relations. These studies addressed physical health, mortality, suicide and suicide attempts, mental health, and health behaviours. Women's mental health appeared more susceptible to crises than men's. Lower income levels were associated with greater increases in cardiovascular disease, mortality and worse mental health. Employment status was associated with changes in mental health. Associations with age, marital status, and education were less consistent, although higher education was associated with healthier behaviours. CONCLUSIONS: Despite widespread rhetoric about the importance of resilience, there was a dearth of studies which operationalised resilience factors. Future conceptual and empirical research is needed to develop the epidemiology of resilience.

The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries.

Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15-49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process.

Fruit and vegetable consumption in the former Soviet Union: the role of individual- and community-level factors.

OBJECTIVE: To explain patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption in nine former Soviet Union countries by exploring the influence of a range of individual- and community-level determinants. DESIGN: Cross-sectional nationally representative surveys and area profiles were undertaken in 2010 in nine countries of the former Soviet Union as part of the Health in Times of Transition (HITT) study. Individual- and area-level determinants were analysed, taking into account potential confounding at the individual and area level. SETTING: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. SUBJECTS: Adult survey respondents (n 17 998) aged 18-95 years. RESULTS: Being male, increasing age, lack of education and lack of financial resources were associated with lower probability of consuming adequate amounts of fruit or vegetables. Daily fruit or vegetable consumption was positively correlated with the number of shops selling fruit and vegetables (for women) and with the number of convenience stores (for men). Billboard advertising of snacks and sweet drinks was negatively related to daily fruit or vegetable consumption, although the reverse was true for billboards advertising soft drinks. Men living near a fast-food outlet had a lower probability of fruit or vegetable consumption, while the opposite was true for the number of local food restaurants. CONCLUSIONS: Overall fruit and vegetable consumption in the former Soviet Union is inadequate, particularly among lower socio-economic groups. Both individual- and community-level factors play a role in explaining inadequate nutrition and thus provide potential entry points for policy interventions, while the nuanced influence of community factors informs the agenda for future research.

Smoking status, nicotine dependence and happiness in nine countries of the former Soviet Union.

BACKGROUND: The US Food and Drug Administration has established a policy of substantially discounting the health benefits of reduced smoking in its evaluation of proposed regulations because of the cost to smokers of the supposed lost pleasure they suffer by no longer smoking. This study used data from nine countries of the former Soviet Union (fSU) to explore this association in a setting characterised by high rates of (male) smoking and smoking-related mortality. METHODS: Data came from a cross-sectional population-based study undertaken in 2010/2011 in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Information was collected from 18 000 respondents aged ≥18 on smoking status (never, ex-smoking and current smoking), cessation attempts and nicotine dependence. The association between these variables and self-reported happiness was examined using ordered probit regression analysis. RESULTS: In a pooled country analysis, never smokers and ex-smokers were both significantly happier than current smokers. Smokers with higher levels of nicotine dependence were significantly less happy than those with a low level of dependence. CONCLUSIONS: This study contradicts the idea that smoking is associated with greater happiness. Moreover, of relevance for policy in the fSU countries, given the lack of public knowledge about the detrimental effects of smoking on health but widespread desire to quit reported in recent research, the finding that smoking is associated with lower levels of happiness should be incorporated in future public health efforts to help encourage smokers to quit by highlighting that smoking cessation may result in better physical and emotional health.

Mental health inequalities in 9 former Soviet Union countries: evidence from the previous decade.

In the previous two decades, countries of the former Soviet Union underwent substantive economic and social changes. While there has been some limited evidence on the relationship between socioeconomic well-being and mental health in the developing and transitional economies, the evidence on economic inequalities in mental health has so far been scarce. In this paper, we analyse two unique datasets collected in 2001 (N = 18,428) and in 2010 (N = 17,998) containing data on 9 countries of the former Soviet Union, exploring how mental health inequalities have changed between 2001 and 2010. Using regression analysis, as well as the indirect standardization approach, we found that mental health appears to have substantially improved in most studied countries during the past decade. Specifically, both the proportion of people with poor mental health, as well as wealth-related inequalities in poor mental health, decreased in almost all countries, except Georgia. Hence, we did not find evidence of a trade-off between changes in average and distributional mental health indicators between 2001 and 2010. Our findings give ground for optimism that at least on these measures, the most difficult times associated with the transition to a market economy in this region may be coming to an end.