Infection prevention and control measures to reduce the transmission of mpox: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To make inferences regarding the effectiveness of respiratory interventions and case isolation measures in reducing or preventing the transmission of mpox based on synthesis of available literature. METHODS: The WHO Clinical Management and Infection Prevention and Control 2022 guideline and droplet precautions in healthcare facilities and home isolation infection prevention control measures for patients with mpox. We conducted a systematic review that included a broad search of five electronic databases. In a two-stage process, we initially sought only randomized controlled trials and observational comparative studies; when the search failed to yield eligible studies, the subsequent search included all study designs including clinical and environmental sampling studies. RESULTS: No studies were identified that directly addressed airborne and droplet precautions and home isolation infection prevention control measures. To inform the review questions the review team synthesized route of transmission data in mpox. There were 2366/4309 (54.9%) cases in which investigators identified mpox infection occurring following transmission through direct physical sexual contact. There were no reported mpox cases in which investigators identified inhalation as a single route of transmission. There were 2/4309 cases in which investigators identified fomite as a single route of transmission. Clinical and environmental sampling studies isolated mpox virus in a minority of saliva, oropharangeal swabs, mpox skin lesions, and hospital room air. CONCLUSIONS: Current findings provide compelling evidence that transmission of mpox occurs through direct physical contact. Because investigators have not reported any cases of transmission via inhalation alone, the impact of airborne and droplet infection prevention control measures in reducing transmission will be minimal. Avoiding physical contact with others, covering mpox lesions and wearing a medical mask is likely to reduce onward mpox transmission; there may be minimal reduction in transmission from additionally physically isolating patients with mild disease at home.

Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.

Social distancing measures (SDMs) are community-level interventions that aim to reduce person-to-person contacts in the community. SDMs were a major part of the responses first to contain, then to mitigate, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community. Common SDMs included limiting the size of gatherings, closing schools and/or workplaces, implementing work-from-home arrangements, or more stringent restrictions such as lockdowns. This systematic review summarized the evidence for the effectiveness of nine SDMs. Almost all of the studies included were observational in nature, which meant that there were intrinsic risks of bias that could have been avoided were conditions randomly assigned to study participants. There were no instances where only one form of SDM had been in place in a particular setting during the study period, making it challenging to estimate the separate effect of each intervention. The more stringent SDMs such as stay-at-home orders, restrictions on mass gatherings and closures were estimated to be most effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Most studies included in this review suggested that combinations of SDMs successfully slowed or even stopped SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the community. However, individual effects and optimal combinations of interventions, as well as the optimal timing for particular measures, require further investigation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Therapeutics for treating mpox in humans.

BACKGROUND: Mpox was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 23 July 2022, following the identification of thousands of cases in several non-endemic countries in previous months. There are currently no licenced therapeutics for treating mpox; however, some medications may be authorized for use in an outbreak. The efficacy and safety of possible therapeutic options has not been studied in humans with mpox. There is a need to investigate the evidence on safety and effectiveness of treatments for mpox in humans; should any therapeutic option be efficacious and safe, it may be approved for use around the world. OBJECTIVES: There are two parts to this Cochrane Review: a review of evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and a narrative review of safety data from non-randomized studies. Randomized controlled trials review To systematically review the existing evidence on the effectiveness of therapeutics for mpox infection in humans compared to: a) another different therapeutic for mpox, or b) placebo, or c) supportive care, defined as the treatment of physical and psychological symptoms arising from the disease. Non-randomized studies review To assess the safety of therapeutics for mpox infection from non-randomized studies (NRS). SEARCH METHODS: Randomized controlled trials review We searched the following databases up to 25 January 2023: MEDLINE (OVID), Embase (OVID), Biosis previews (Web of Science), CAB Abstracts (Web of science), and Cochrane CENTRAL (Issue 1 2023). We conducted a search of trial registries (Clinicaltrials.gov and International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP)) on 25 January 2023. There were no date or language limits placed on the search. We undertook a call to experts in the field for relevant studies or ongoing trials to be considered for inclusion in the review. Non-randomized studies review We searched the following databases on 22 September 2022: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; Issue 9 of 12, 2022), published in the Cochrane Library; MEDLINE (Ovid); Embase (Ovid); and Scopus (Elsevier). We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov for trials in progress. SELECTION CRITERIA: For the RCT review and the narrative review, any therapeutic for the treatment of mpox in humans was eligible for inclusion, including tecovirimat, brincidofovir, cidofovir, NIOCH-14, immunomodulators, and vaccine immune globulin. Randomized controlled trials review Studies were eligible for the main review if they were of randomized controlled design and investigated the effectiveness or safety of therapeutics in human mpox infection. Non-randomized studies review Studies were eligible for inclusion in the review of non-randomized studies if they were of non-randomized design and contained data concerning the safety of any therapeutic in human mpox infection. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Randomized controlled trials review Two review authors independently applied study inclusion criteria to identify eligible studies. If we had identified any eligible studies, we planned to assess the risk of bias, and report results with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The critical outcomes were serious adverse events, development of disease-related complications, admission to hospital for non-hospitalized participants, pain as judged by any visual or numerical pain scale, level of virus detected in clinical samples, time to healing of all skin lesions, and mortality. We planned to perform subgroup analysis to explore whether the effect of the therapeutic on the planned outcomes was modified by disease severity and days from symptom onset to therapeutic administration. We also intended to explore the following subgroups of absolute effects: immunosuppression, age, and pre-existing skin disease. Non-randomized studies review One review author applied study inclusion criteria to identify eligible studies and extracted data. Studies of a non-randomized design containing data on the safety of therapeutics could not be meta-analyzed due to the absence of a comparator; we summarized these data narratively in an appendix. MAIN RESULTS: Randomized controlled trials review We did not identify any completed RCTs investigating the effectiveness of therapeutics for treating mpox for the main review. We identified five ongoing trials that plan to assess the effectiveness of one therapeutic option, tecovirimat, for treating mpox in adults and children. One of these ongoing trials intends to include populations with, or at greater risk of, severe disease, which will allow an assessment of safety in more vulnerable populations. Non-randomized studies review Three non-randomized studies met the inclusion criteria for the narrative review, concerning data on the safety of therapeutics in mpox. Very low-certainty evidence from non-randomized studies of small numbers of people indicates no serious safety signals emerging for the use of tecovirimat in people with mpox infection, but a possible safety signal for brincidofovir. All three participants who received brincidofovir had raised alanine aminotransferase (ALT), but not bilirubin, suggesting mild liver injury. No study reported severe drug-induced liver injury with brincidofovir. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Randomized controlled trials review This review found no evidence from randomized controlled trials concerning the efficacy and safety of therapeutics in humans with mpox. Non-randomized studies review Very low-certainty evidence from non-randomized studies indicates no serious safety signals emerging for the use of tecovirimat in people with mpox infection. In contrast, very low-certainty evidence raises a safety signal that brincidofovir may cause liver injury. This is also suggested by indirect evidence from brincidofovir use in smallpox. This warrants further investigation and monitoring. This Cochrane Review will be updated as new evidence becomes available to assist policymakers, health professionals, and consumers in making appropriate decisions for the treatment of mpox.

Evaluation of eight lateral flow tests for the detection of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a vaccinated population.

BACKGROUND: Rapid determination of an individual's antibody status can be beneficial in understanding an individual's immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and for initiation of therapies that are only deemed effective in sero-negative individuals. Antibody lateral flow tests (LFTs) have potential to address this need as a rapid, point of care test. METHODS: Here we present a proof-of-concept evaluation of eight LFT brands using sera from 95 vaccinated individuals to determine sensitivity for detecting vaccination generated antibodies. Samples were analysed on eight different brands of antibody LFT and an automated chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA) that identifies anti-spike antibodies which was used as our reference standard. RESULTS: All 95 (100%) participants tested positive for anti-spike antibodies by the chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA) reference standard post-dose two of their SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech, n = 60), AZD1222 (AstraZeneca, n = 31), mRNA-1273 (Moderna, n = 2) and Undeclared Vaccine Brand (n = 2). Sensitivity increased from dose one to dose two in six out of eight LFTs with three tests achieving 100% sensitivity at dose two in detecting anti-spike antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: These tests are demonstrated to be highly sensitive to detect raised antibody levels in vaccinated individuals. RDTs are low cost and rapid alternatives to ELISA based systems.

Air and surface sampling for monkeypox virus in a UK hospital: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: An outbreak of monkeypox virus infections in non-endemic countries was recognised on May 12, 2022. As of September 29, more than 67 000 infections have been reported globally, with more than 3400 confirmed cases in the UK by September 26. Monkeypox virus is believed to be predominantly transmitted through direct contact with lesions or infected body fluids, with possible involvement of fomites and large respiratory droplets. A case of monkeypox in a health-care worker in the UK in 2018 was suspected to be due to virus exposure while changing bedding. We aimed to measure the extent of environmental contamination in the isolation rooms of patients with symptomatic monkeypox. METHODS: We investigated environmental contamination with monkeypox virus from infected patients admitted to isolation rooms at the Royal Free Hospital (London, UK) between May 24 and June 17, 2022. Surface swabs of high-touch areas in five isolation rooms, of the personal protective equipment (PPE) of health-care workers in doffing areas in three rooms, and from air samples collected before and during bedding changes in five rooms were analysed using quantitative PCR to assess monkeypox virus contamination levels. Virus isolation was performed to confirm presence of infectious virus in selected positive samples. FINDINGS: We identified widespread surface contamination (56 [93%] of 60 samples were positive) in occupied patient rooms (monkeypox DNA cycle threshold [Ct] values 24·7-37·4), on health-care worker PPE after use (Ct 26·1-35·6), and in PPE doffing areas (Ct 26·3-36·8). Of 20 air samples taken, five (25%) were positive. Three (75%) of four air samples collected before and during a bedding change in one patient's room were positive (Ct 32·7-36·2). Replication-competent virus was identified in two (50%) of four samples selected for viral isolation, including from air samples collected during bedding change. INTERPRETATION: These data show contamination in isolation facilities and potential for suspension of monkeypox virus into the air during specific activities. PPE contamination was observed after clinical contact and changing of bedding. Contamination of hard surfaces in doffing areas supports the importance of cleaning protocols, PPE use, and doffing procedures. FUNDING: None.

Clinical features and management of human monkeypox: a retrospective observational study in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Cases of human monkeypox are rarely seen outside of west and central Africa. There are few data regarding viral kinetics or the duration of viral shedding and no licensed treatments. Two oral drugs, brincidofovir and tecovirimat, have been approved for treatment of smallpox and have demonstrated efficacy against monkeypox in animals. Our aim was to describe the longitudinal clinical course of monkeypox in a high-income setting, coupled with viral dynamics, and any adverse events related to novel antiviral therapies. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we report the clinical features, longitudinal virological findings, and response to off-label antivirals in seven patients with monkeypox who were diagnosed in the UK between 2018 and 2021, identified through retrospective case-note review. This study included all patients who were managed in dedicated high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) centres in Liverpool, London, and Newcastle, coordinated via a national HCID network. FINDINGS: We reviewed all cases since the inception of the HCID (airborne) network between Aug 15, 2018, and Sept 10, 2021, identifying seven patients. Of the seven patients, four were men and three were women. Three acquired monkeypox in the UK: one patient was a health-care worker who acquired the virus nosocomially, and one patient who acquired the virus abroad transmitted it to an adult and child within their household cluster. Notable disease features included viraemia, prolonged monkeypox virus DNA detection in upper respiratory tract swabs, reactive low mood, and one patient had a monkeypox virus PCR-positive deep tissue abscess. Five patients spent more than 3 weeks (range 22-39 days) in isolation due to prolonged PCR positivity. Three patients were treated with brincidofovir (200 mg once a week orally), all of whom developed elevated liver enzymes resulting in cessation of therapy. One patient was treated with tecovirimat (600 mg twice daily for 2 weeks orally), experienced no adverse effects, and had a shorter duration of viral shedding and illness (10 days hospitalisation) compared with the other six patients. One patient experienced a mild relapse 6 weeks after hospital discharge. INTERPRETATION: Human monkeypox poses unique challenges, even to well resourced health-care systems with HCID networks. Prolonged upper respiratory tract viral DNA shedding after skin lesion resolution challenged current infection prevention and control guidance. There is an urgent need for prospective studies of antivirals for this disease. FUNDING: None.

Family cluster of three cases of monkeypox imported from Nigeria to the United Kingdom, May 2021.

Most reported cases of human monkeypox occur in Central and West Africa, where the causing virus is endemic. We describe the identification and public health response to an imported case of West African monkeypox from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (UK) in May 2021. Secondary transmission from the index case occurred within the family to another adult and a toddler. Concurrent COVID-19-related control measures upon arrival and at the hospital, facilitated detection and limited the number of potential contacts.

Ivermectin for preventing and treating COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Ivermectin, an antiparasitic agent used to treat parasitic infestations, inhibits the replication of viruses in vitro. The molecular hypothesis of ivermectin's antiviral mode of action suggests an inhibitory effect on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) replication in the early stages of infection. Currently, evidence on efficacy and safety of ivermectin for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 treatment is conflicting. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of ivermectin compared to no treatment, standard of care, placebo, or any other proven intervention for people with COVID-19 receiving treatment as inpatients or outpatients, and for prevention of an infection with SARS-CoV-2 (postexposure prophylaxis). SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, Web of Science (Emerging Citation Index and Science Citation Index), medRxiv, and Research Square, identifying completed and ongoing studies without language restrictions to 26 May 2021. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing ivermectin to no treatment, standard of care, placebo, or another proven intervention for treatment of people with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, irrespective of disease severity, treated in inpatient or outpatient settings, and for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Co-interventions had to be the same in both study arms.  We excluded studies comparing ivermectin to other pharmacological interventions with unproven efficacy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We assessed RCTs for bias, using the Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool. The primary analysis excluded studies with high risk of bias. We used GRADE to rate the certainty of evidence for the following outcomes 1. to treat inpatients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19: mortality, clinical worsening or improvement, adverse events, quality of life, duration of hospitalization, and viral clearance; 2. to treat outpatients with mild COVID-19: mortality, clinical worsening or improvement, admission to hospital, adverse events, quality of life, and viral clearance; (3) to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection: SARS-CoV-2 infection, development of COVID-19 symptoms, adverse events, mortality, admission to hospital, and quality of life. MAIN RESULTS: We found 14 studies with 1678 participants investigating ivermectin compared to no treatment, placebo, or standard of care. No study compared ivermectin to an intervention with proven efficacy. There were nine studies treating participants with moderate COVID-19 in inpatient settings and four treating mild COVID-19 cases in outpatient settings. One study investigated ivermectin for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Eight studies had an open-label design, six were double-blind and placebo-controlled. Of the 41 study results contributed by included studies, about one third were at overall high risk of bias.  Ivermectin doses and treatment duration varied among included studies.  We identified 31 ongoing and 18 studies awaiting classification until publication of results or clarification of inconsistencies. Ivermectin compared to placebo or standard of care for inpatient COVID-19 treatment We are uncertain whether ivermectin compared to placebo or standard of care reduces or increases mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 to 2.51; 2 studies, 185 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and clinical worsening up to day 28 assessed as need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.11 to 2.59; 2 studies, 185 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or need for supplemental oxygen (0 participants required supplemental oxygen; 1 study, 45 participants; very low-certainty evidence), adverse events within 28 days (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.50 to 2.97; 1 study, 152 participants; very low-certainty evidence), and viral clearance at day seven (RR 1.82, 95% CI 0.51 to 6.48; 2 studies, 159 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Ivermectin may have little or no effect compared to placebo or standard of care on clinical improvement up to 28 days (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.35; 1 study; 73 participants; low-certainty evidence) and duration of hospitalization (mean difference (MD) -0.10 days, 95% CI -2.43 to 2.23; 1 study; 45 participants; low-certainty evidence). No study reported quality of life up to 28 days. Ivermectin compared to placebo or standard of care for outpatient COVID-19 treatment We are uncertain whether ivermectin compared to placebo or standard of care reduces or increases mortality up to 28 days (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01 to 8.05; 2 studies, 422 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and clinical worsening up to 14 days assessed as need for IMV (RR 2.97, 95% CI 0.12 to 72.47; 1 study, 398 participants; very low-certainty evidence) or non-IMV or high flow oxygen requirement (0 participants required non-IMV or high flow; 1 study, 398 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether ivermectin compared to placebo reduces or increases viral clearance at seven days (RR 3.00, 95% CI 0.13 to 67.06; 1 study, 24 participants; low-certainty evidence). Ivermectin may have little or no effect compared to placebo or standard of care on the number of participants with symptoms resolved up to 14 days (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.21; 1 study, 398 participants; low-certainty evidence) and adverse events within 28 days (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.05; 2 studies, 422 participants; low-certainty evidence). None of the studies reporting duration of symptoms were eligible for primary analysis. No study reported hospital admission or quality of life up to 14 days. Ivermectin compared to no treatment for prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection We found one study. Mortality up to 28 days was the only outcome eligible for primary analysis. We are uncertain whether ivermectin reduces or increases mortality compared to no treatment (0 participants died; 1 study, 304 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The study reported results for development of COVID-19 symptoms and adverse events up to 14 days that were included in a secondary analysis due to high risk of bias. No study reported SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospital admission, and quality of life up to 14 days. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Based on the current very low- to low-certainty evidence, we are uncertain about the efficacy and safety of ivermectin used to treat or prevent COVID-19. The completed studies are small and few are considered high quality. Several studies are underway that may produce clearer answers in review updates. Overall, the reliable evidence available does not support the use ivermectin for treatment or prevention of COVID-19 outside of well-designed randomized trials.

An evaluation of 1 year of advice calls to a tropical and infectious disease referral Centre.

OBJECTIVES: Many secondary care departments receive external advice calls. However, systematic advice-call documentation is uncommon and evidence on call nature and burden infrequent. The Liverpool tropical and infectious disease unit (TIDU) provides specialist advice locally, regionally and nationally. We created and evaluated a recording system to document advice calls received by TIDU. METHODS: An electronic advice-call recording system was created for TIDU specialist trainees to document complex, predominantly external calls. Fourteen months of advice calls were summarised, analysed and recommendations for other departments wishing to replicate this system made. RESULTS: Five-hundred and ninety calls regarding 362 patients were documented. Median patient age was 44 years (interquartile range 29-56 years) and 56% were male. Sixty-nine per cent of patients discussed were referred from secondary healthcare, half from emergency or acute medicine departments; 43% of patients were returning travellers; 59% of returning travellers had undifferentiated fever, one-third of whom returned from sub-Saharan Africa; 32% of patients discussed were further reviewed at TIDU. Interim 6-month review showed good user acceptability of the system. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing an advice-call recording system was feasible within TIDU. Call and follow-up burden was high with advice regarding fever in returned travellers predominating. Similar systems could improve clinical governance, patient care and service delivery in other secondary care departments.

A whole-food plant-based experiential education program for health care providers results in personal and professional changes.

Diet-related diseases are the primary contributor to morbidity and mortality. The risk for these diseases can be reduced with a whole-food plant-based (WFPB) diet, but most people are never counseled on this dietary pattern. An experiential education program was designed and conducted in which sample of 30 nurse practitioners, registered nurses, and physicians learned about and followed a WFPB diet for 3 weeks. The objective was for the health care providers to increase their knowledge and acceptance of WFPB diets and increase their likelihood of counseling patients on this dietary pattern. Participants completed preintervention and postintervention questionnaires assessing dietary intake, knowledge, weight, mood, energy, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy, and likelihood of continuing to follow, or counsel patients about a WFPB diet. Participants decreased intake of animal-derived foods, increased intake of WFPB foods, had improvements in mood and energy, and lost weight. Perceived barriers to following and counseling about a WFPB diet declined and self-efficacy improved. Participants were likely to continue a WFPB diet and discuss the diet with their patients. The three-week intervention changed providers' knowledge, skills, and attitudes about WFPB diets. If nurse practitioners and other providers accept WFPB diets, more patients may be educated on this dietary pattern, helping to reduce the burden of diet-related chronic diseases.

A Prospective Comparison of Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Criteria, Universal Vital Assessment, and Modified Early Warning Score to Predict Mortality in Patients with Suspected Infection in Gabon.

The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score has been proposed for risk stratification of emergency room patients with suspected infection. Its use of simple bedside observations makes qSOFA an attractive option for resource-limited regions. We prospectively assessed the predictive ability of qSOFA compared with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), universal vital assessment (UVA), and modified early warning score (MEWS) in a resource-limited setting in Lambaréné, Gabon. In addition, we evaluated different adaptations of qSOFA and UVA in this cohort and an external validation cohort from Malawi. We included 279 cases, including 183 with an ad hoc (suspected) infectious disease diagnosis. Overall mortality was 5%. In patients with an infection, oxygen saturation, mental status, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, and all four risk stratification score results differed significantly between survivors and non-survivors. The UVA score performed best in predicting mortality in patients with suspected infection, with an area under the receiving operator curve (AUROC) of 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78-1.0, P < 0.0001), outperforming qSOFA (AUROC 0.77; 95% CI: 0.63-0.91, P = 0.0003), MEWS (AUROC 0.72; 95% CI: 0.58-0.87, P = 0.01), and SIRS (AUROC 0.70; 95% CI: 0.52-0.88, P = 0.03). An amalgamated qSOFA score applying the UVA thresholds for blood pressure and respiratory rate improved predictive ability in Gabon (AUROC 0.82; 95% CI: 0.68-0.96) but performed poorly in a different cohort from Malawi (AUROC 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51-0.64). In conclusion, UVA had the best predictive ability, but multicenter studies are needed to validate the qSOFA and UVA scores in various settings and assess their impact on patient outcome.

Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models.

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

Potential Use of Classroom Response Systems (CRS, Clickers) in Foods, Nutrition, and Dietetics Higher Education.

Although hundreds of articles have been published about the use of classroom response systems (CRS, clickers) in higher education, few address the use in foods, nutrition, and dietetics courses, especially upper-division, major courses. This technology has the potential to increase student engagement, motivation, assessment, and, possibly, learning. Thoughtfully designed questions may stimulate discussions, especially about challenging nutrition topics. This article presents the viability and potential benefits for the use of CRS in foods, nutrition, and dietetics classes through a brief literature summary, overview of the author's experiences, and guidance for implementing this technology.

Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates.

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions.We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate models and two contrasting emissions scenarios.Our case study results illustrate how different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on model output and how the geographic distribution of uncertainty can vary.Synthesis and applications: We provide a conceptual framework for understanding sources of uncertainty based on a review of potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling; a tool for simulating uncertainty in species distribution models; and protocols for dealing with uncertainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios. Our tool provides a step forward in understanding and communicating the impacts of uncertainty on species distribution models under future climates which will be particularly helpful for informing discussions between researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

Formative research and strategic development of a physical activity component to a social marketing campaign for obesity prevention in preschoolers.

The prevalence of overweight in childhood, including preschoolers, continues to rise. While efforts focusing on school-aged children are encouraging, obesity prevention programs to address nutrition and physical activity in the child care center are lacking. Food Friends is a successfully evaluated nutrition program aimed at enhancing preschoolers' food choices, the addition of a physical activity program would improve the programs overall efforts to establish healthful habits early in life. This study describes the formative research conducted with secondary influencers of preschoolers-teachers and parents-for the development of a physical activity program. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted with preschool teachers and parents, respectively, to examine current physical activity practices, as well as attitudes, opinions, and desired wants and needs for physical activity materials. Findings illustrate that teachers provided physical activity; however, most did not use a structured program. Teachers identified time, space and equipment as barriers to providing activity in their classroom. Focus group findings identified activities of preschoolers', parents' perceptions of the adequacy of activity levels, and items to help parents engage their children in more physical activity. Barriers were also identified by parents and included time, safety, inclement weather, and lack of knowledge and self-efficacy. Findings from this formative research were used to develop a marketing strategy to guide the development of a physical activity component, Food Friends Get Movin' with Mighty Moves , as part of a larger social marketing campaign aimed to decrease the risk for obesity in low-income preschoolers.

Population-based surveillance for cryptococcosis in an antiretroviral-naive South African province with a high HIV seroprevalence.

OBJECTIVES: To measure the burden of disease and describe the epidemiology of cryptococcosis in Gauteng Province, South Africa. DESIGN AND METHODS: The study was an active, prospective, laboratory-based, population-based surveillance. An incident case of cryptococcosis was defined as the first isolation by culture of any Cryptococcus species from any clinical specimen, a positive India ink cryptococcal latex agglutination test or a positive histopathology specimen from a Gauteng resident. Cases were identified prospectively at all laboratories in Gauteng. Case report forms were completed using medical record review and patient interview where possible. RESULTS: Between 1 March 2002 and 29 February 2004, 2753 incident cases were identified. The overall incidence rate was 15.6/100 000. Among HIV-infected persons, the rate was 95/100 000, and among persons living with AIDS 14/1000. Males and children under 15 years accounted for 49 and 0.9% of cases, respectively. The median age was 34 years (range, 1 month-74 years). Almost all cases (97%) presented with meningitis. Antifungal therapy was given to 2460 (89%) cases of which 72% received fluconazole only. In-hospital mortality was 27% (749 cases). Recurrences occurred in 263 (9.5%) incident cases. Factors associated with death included altered mental status, coma or wasting; factors associated with survival included employment in the mining industry, visual changes or headache on presentation. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the high disease burden due to cryptococcosis in an antiretroviral-naive South African population and emphasizes the need to improve early recognition, diagnosis and treatment of the condition.

Cryptococcus gattii infection: characteristics and epidemiology of cases identified in a South African province with high HIV seroprevalence, 2002-2004.

We describe 46 Cryptococcus gattii-infected persons identified by population-based surveillance conducted in South Africa. Most patients with C. gattii infection presented with meningitis. The mortality rate during hospitalization was 36%. We found no significant differences between persons with and persons without C. gattii infection with regard to clinical presentation, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnosis, concomitant conditions, or prior opportunistic infections. C. gattii isolates had low MICs to the tested antifungal drugs.