Detecting iodine deficiency risks from dietary transitions using shopping data.

Plant-based product replacements are gaining popularity. However, the long-term health implications remain poorly understood, and available methods, though accurate, are expensive and burdensome, impeding the study of sufficiently large cohorts. To identify dietary transitions over time, we examine anonymised loyalty-card shopping records from Co-op Food, UK. We focus on 10,626 frequent customers who directly replaced milk with alternative milk. We then use product nutritional information to estimate weekly nutrient intake before and after the transition. 83% who converted to alternative milk saw a fall in iodine (44%), calcium (30%) and vitamin B12 (39%) consumption, with 57% reducing iodine purchase by more than 50%. The decline is even higher for those switching dairy and meat products. Our findings suggest that dietary transitions - such as replacing milk with alternative milk - could lead to nutritional deficiencies, notably iodine, which, if not addressed, may represent a significant public health concern, particularly in countries which do not mandate salt iodisation.

Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unparalleled pressure on healthcare services. Improved healthcare planning in relation to diseases affecting the respiratory system has consequently become a key concern. We investigated the value of integrating sales of non-prescription medications commonly bought for managing respiratory symptoms, to improve forecasting of weekly registered deaths from respiratory disease at local levels across England, by using over 2 billion transactions logged by a UK high street retailer from March 2016 to March 2020. We report the results from the novel AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability variable importance tool Model Class Reliance implemented on the PADRUS model (Prediction of Amount of Deaths by Respiratory disease Using Sales). PADRUS is a machine learning model optimised to predict registered deaths from respiratory disease in 314 local authority areas across England through the integration of shopping sales data and focused on purchases of non-prescription medications. We found strong evidence that models incorporating sales data significantly out-perform other models that solely use variables traditionally associated with respiratory disease (e.g. sociodemographics and weather data). Accuracy gains are highest (increases in R2 (coefficient of determination) between 0.09 to 0.11) in periods of maximum risk to the general public. Results demonstrate the potential to utilise sales data to monitor population health with information at a high level of geographic granularity.

Using Shopping Data to Improve the Diagnosis of Ovarian Cancer: Computational Analysis of a Web-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: Shopping data can be analyzed using machine learning techniques to study population health. It is unknown if the use of such methods can successfully investigate prediagnosis purchases linked to self-medication of symptoms of ovarian cancer. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to gain new domain knowledge from women's experiences, understand how women's shopping behavior relates to their pathway to the diagnosis of ovarian cancer, and inform research on computational analysis of shopping data for population health. METHODS: A web-based survey on individuals' shopping patterns prior to an ovarian cancer diagnosis was analyzed to identify key knowledge about health care purchases. Logistic regression and random forest models were employed to statistically examine how products linked to potential symptoms related to presentation to health care and timing of diagnosis. RESULTS: Of the 101 women surveyed with ovarian cancer, 58.4% (59/101) bought nonprescription health care products for up to more than a year prior to diagnosis, including pain relief and abdominal products. General practitioner advice was the primary reason for the purchases (23/59, 39%), with 51% (30/59) occurring due to a participant's doctor believing their health problems were due to a condition other than ovarian cancer. Associations were shown between purchases made because a participant's doctor believing their health problems were due to a condition other than ovarian cancer and the following variables: health problems for longer than a year prior to diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] 7.33, 95% CI 1.58-33.97), buying health care products for more than 6 months to a year (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.04-13.98) or for more than a year (OR 7.64, 95% CI 1.38-42.33), and the number of health care product types purchased (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.13-2.11). Purchasing patterns are shown to be potentially predictive of a participant's doctor thinking their health problems were due to some condition other than ovarian cancer, with nested cross-validation of random forest classification models achieving an overall in-sample accuracy score of 89.1% and an out-of-sample score of 70.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Women in the survey were 7 times more likely to have had a duration of more than a year of health problems prior to a diagnosis of ovarian cancer if they were self-medicating based on advice from a doctor rather than having made the decision to self-medicate independently. Predictive modelling indicates that women in such situations, who are self-medicating because their doctor believes their health problems may be due to a condition other than ovarian cancer, exhibit distinct shopping behaviors that may be identifiable within purchasing data. Through exploratory research combining women sharing their behaviors prior to diagnosis and computational analysis of these data, this study demonstrates that women's shopping data could potentially be useful for early ovarian cancer detection.

Public attitudes towards sharing loyalty card data for academic health research: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of studies show the potential of loyalty card data for use in health research. However, research into public perceptions of using this data is limited. This study aimed to investigate public attitudes towards donating loyalty card data for academic health research, and the safeguards the public would want to see implemented. The way in which participant attitudes varied according to whether loyalty card data would be used for either cancer or COVID-19 research was also examined. METHODS: Participants (N = 40) were recruited via Prolific Academic to take part in semi-structured telephone interviews, with questions focused on data sharing related to either COVID-19 or ovarian/bowel cancer as the proposed health condition to be researched. Content analysis was used to identify sub-themes corresponding to the two a priori themes, attitudes and safeguards. RESULTS: Participant attitudes were found to fall into two categories, either rational or emotional. Under rational, most participants were in favour of sharing loyalty card data. Support of health research was seen as an important reason to donate such data, with loyalty card logs being considered as already within the public domain. With increased understanding of research purpose, participants expressed higher willingness to donate data. Within the emotional category, participants shared fears about revealing location information and of third parties obtaining their data. With regards to safeguards, participants described the importance of anonymisation and the level of data detail; the control, convenience and choice they desired in sharing data; and the need for transparency and data security. The change in hypothetical purpose of the data sharing, from Covid-19 to cancer research, had no impact on participants' decision to donate, although did affect their understanding of how loyalty card data could be used. CONCLUSIONS: Based on interviews with the public, this study contributes recommendations for those researchers and the wider policy community seeking to obtain loyalty card data for health research. Whilst participants were largely in favour of donating loyalty card data for academic health research, information, choice and appropriate safeguards are all exposed as prerequisites upon which decisions are made.

Using mobile money data and call detail records to explore the risks of urban migration in Tanzania.

Understanding what factors predict whether an urban migrant will end up in a deprived neighbourhood or not could help prevent the exploitation of vulnerable individuals. This study leveraged pseudonymized mobile money interactions combined with cell phone data to shed light on urban migration patterns and deprivation in Tanzania. Call detail records were used to identify individuals who migrated to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's largest city. A street survey of the city's subwards was used to determine which individuals moved to more deprived areas. t-tests showed that people who settled in poorer neighbourhoods had less money coming into their mobile money account after they moved, but not before. A machine learning approach was then utilized to predict which migrants will move to poorer areas of the city, making them arguably more vulnerable to poverty, unemployment and exploitation. Features indicating the strength and location of people's social connections in Dar es Salaam before they moved ('pull factors') were found to be most predictive, more so than traditional 'push factors' such as proxies for poverty in the migrant's source region. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00340-y.

Psychology of personal data donation.

Advances in digital technology have led to large amounts of personal data being recorded and retained by industry, constituting an invaluable asset to private organizations. The implementation of the General Data Protection Regulation in the EU, including the UK, fundamentally reshaped how data is handled across every sector. It enables the general public to access data collected about them by organisations, opening up the possibility of this data being used for research that benefits the public themselves; for example, to uncover lifestyle causes of poor health outcomes. A significant barrier for using this commercial data for academic research, however, is the lack of publicly acceptable research frameworks. Data donation-the act of an individual actively consenting to donate their personal data for research-could enable the use of commercial data for the benefit of society. However, it is not clear which motives, if any, would drive people to donate their personal data for this purpose. In this paper we present the results of a large-scale survey (N = 1,300) that studied intentions and reasons to donate personal data. We found that over half of individuals are willing to donate their personal data for research that could benefit the wider general public. We identified three distinct reasons to donate personal data: an opportunity to achieve self-benefit, social duty, and the need to understand the purpose of data donation. We developed a questionnaire to measure those three reasons and provided further evidence on the validity of the scales. Our results demonstrate that these reasons predict people's intentions to donate personal data over and above generic altruistic motives. We show that a social duty is the strongest predictor of the intention to donate personal data, while understanding the purpose of data donation also positively predicts the intentions to donate personal data. In contrast, self-serving motives show a negative association with intentions to donate personal data. The findings presented here examine people's reasons for data donation to help inform the ethical use of commercially collected personal data for academic research for public good.