ABSTRACT
In cognitive neuroscience, computational modeling can formally adjudicate between theories and affords quantitative fits to behavioral/brain data. Pragmatically, however, the space of plausible generative models considered is dramatically limited by the set of models with known likelihood functions. For many models, the lack of a closed-form likelihood typically impedes Bayesian inference methods. As a result, standard models are evaluated for convenience, even when other models might be superior. Likelihood-free methods exist but are limited by their computational cost or their restriction to particular inference scenarios. Here, we propose neural networks that learn approximate likelihoods for arbitrary generative models, allowing fast posterior sampling with only a one-off cost for model simulations that is amortized for future inference. We show that these methods can accurately recover posterior parameter distributions for a variety of neurocognitive process models. We provide code allowing users to deploy these methods for arbitrary hierarchical model instantiations without further training.
Cognitive neuroscience studies the links between the physical brain and cognition. Computational models that attempt to describe the relationships between the brain and specific behaviours quantitatively is becoming increasingly popular in this field. This approach may help determine the causes of certain behaviours and make predictions about what behaviours will be triggered by specific changes in the brain. Many of the computational models used in cognitive neuroscience are built based on experimental data. A good model can predict the results of new experiments given a specific set of conditions with few parameters. Candidate models are often called 'generative': models that can simulate data. However, typically, cognitive neuroscience studies require going the other way around: they need to infer models and their parameters from experimental data. Ideally, it should also be possible to properly assess the remaining uncertainty over the parameters after having access to the experimental data. To facilitate this, the Bayesian approach to statistical analysis has become popular in cognitive neuroscience. Common software tools for Bayesian estimation require a 'likelihood function', which measures how well a model fits experimental data for given values of the unknown parameters. A major obstacle is that for all but the most common models, obtaining precise likelihood functions is computationally costly. In practice, this requirement limits researchers to evaluating and comparing a small subset of neurocognitive models for which a likelihood function is known. As a result, it is convenience, rather than theoretical interest, that guides this process. In order to provide one solution for this problem, Fengler et al. developed a method that allows users to perform Bayesian inference on a larger number of models without high simulation costs. This method uses likelihood approximation networks (LANs), a computational tool that can estimate likelihood functions for a broad class of models of decision making, allowing researchers to estimate parameters and to measure how well models fit the data. Additionally, Fengler et al. provide both the code needed to build networks using their approach and a tutorial for users. The new method, along with the user-friendly tool, may help to discover more realistic brain dynamics underlying cognition and behaviour as well as alterations in brain function.
