The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in time-frequency connectedness between oil market shocks and green bond markets: Evidence from the wavelet-based quantile approaches.

This study contributes to the existing literature on the relationship between oil market shocks and the green bond market by investigating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their dynamic correlation. We first decompose the oil market shocks into components using a time-frequency framework. Then, we combine wavelet decomposition and quantile coherence and causality methods to discuss changes during the COVID-19 era. We observe positive effects of both supply-driven and demand-driven oil shocks on the green bond market at most quantile levels. However, supply-driven oil price changes play a major role. The results also indicate that long-term changes have a greater impact than short-term changes on the connection between oil and green bond markets. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic changed the nature of the causal relationship, as we observed no relationship under extreme market conditions during the pandemic era. We argue that the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have left investors focusing on the short-term substitution between oil and green bond markets.

How does digital finance affect industrial structure upgrading? Evidence from Chinese prefecture-level cities.

Digital finance is playing an increasingly prominent role in economic development. This paper examines the impact of digital finance on industrial structure upgrading based on panel data from 289 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2020. The paper adopts fixed effects, mediating effects, and spatial econometric models and the findings are as follows. First, digital finance development significantly boosts industrial structure upgrading in Chinese cities. The evidence remains valid after various robustness tests. Second, digital finance and industrial structure upgrading exhibit positive spatial spillover effects. Third, digital finance indirectly affects industrial structure upgrading through innovation, entrepreneurship and the structure of household consumption channels. Fourth, the influence of digital finance is more significant in cities with more developed economies, less financialization and lower income inequality. Finally, among the sub-indicators of digital finance, the breadth of coverage plays the most significant role, inspiring policymakers and financial institutions to speed up the digitization infrastructure in backward areas.

Effects of pandemics uncertainty on fertility.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various dimensions of the economies and societies. At this juncture, this paper examines the effects of pandemics-related uncertainty on fertility in the panel dataset of 126 countries from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the World Pandemics Uncertainty Indices are used to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The novel empirical evidence is that pandemics-related uncertainty decreases fertility rates. These results are robust to estimate different models and include various controls. We also try to explain why the rise in uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the fertility decline.

Global Evidence on the Determinants of Public Trust in Governments during the COVID-19.

Using the Global Behaviors and Perceptions in the COVID-19 Pandemic dataset covering 108,918 respondents from 178 countries, the paper examines the determinants of public trust in governments during the COVID-19. It is found that older and healthy people trust more to their governments. Education is negatively related to trust in governments. The results are robust to consider different measures of trust in government as well as including various controls, such as precautionary behaviors, first-order beliefs, second-order beliefs, and the COVID-19 prevalence in the country. The findings are also valid for countries at different stages of economic development as well to varying levels of globalization, institutional quality, and freedom of the press.

The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism.

Economic interests are assumed to be the leading driver of political preferences, and various empirical studies have examined how economic conditions affect political views and voting behavior. Meanwhile, populism is on the rise in European Union (EU) member countries. Against that backdrop, this paper aims to examine the effect of economic uncertainty on populist voting behavior based on a panel dataset of 24 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. We focus on whether total populist, right-wing populist, and left-wing populist votes are affected by a new indicator of economic uncertainty, namely, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Relying on a fixed-effects, bias-corrected least squares dummy variable estimator and instrumental variable estimations, we show that a higher WUI increases total populism and right-wing populist voting behavior. The baseline results remain consistent when dealing with potential issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, addressing omitted variable bias, and excluding outliers. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11127-021-00933-7.

Globalisation, economic uncertainty and labour market regulations: Implications for the COVID-19 crisis.

This paper empirically analyses the effects of globalisation on labour market regulations. We also interact globalisation measures with economic uncertainty, and they serve as potential determinants of de jure labour market conditions. For this purpose, we consider new innovative globalisation and economic uncertainty indices (the Revisited KOF Globalisation and the World Uncertainty) in a panel dataset of 136 countries from 2000 to 2017. The findings indicate that globalisation promotes labour market flexibility, while economic uncertainty decreases it. We also find that the interaction of globalisation with economic uncertainty positively affects labour market flexibility. The findings are robust to various sensitivity analyses, that is, different estimation procedures and globalisation indicators, including various controls and excluding outliers.

The Amplifying Effect of Conflicts on Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19: Evidence From 120 Countries.

Using the COVID-19 database of Johns Hopkins University, this study examines the determinants of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. We consider various potential determinants of the mortality risk of COVID-19 in 120 countries. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimations show that internal and external conflicts are positively related to the case fatality rates. This evidence is robust to the exclusion of countries across different regions. Thus, the evidence indicates that conflict may explain significant differences in the case fatality rate of COVID-19 across countries.

Effects of Price of Gold on Bombay Stock Exchange Sectoral Indices: New Evidence for Portfolio Risk Management.

Using daily data, this paper examines the relationship between the returns of gold and seven sectoral indices in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) for the period from January 2000 to May 2018. Given the importance of gold in India, there are significant issues in a portfolio selection in that country. By addressing the hedged robust portfolio problems, this paper focuses on three vanilla portfolio problems: the maximum return portfolio allocation, the global minimum variance portfolio problem, and the Markowitz portfolio allocation by using various multiple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The paper finds that gold returns are significantly independent of the returns of the BSE sectoral indices. Besides, gold returns can help predict the future returns of the Consumer Durables and the Fast-Moving Consumer Goods indices as well as the Oil & Gas equity indices. Finally, the findings also show that gold hedges against the information technology stock index and serves as a robust portfolio diversification tool. With these new results, this paper offers several implications for investors and risk management purposes.

Pandemics and Income Inequality: What Do the Data Tell for the Globalization Era?

This paper empirically investigates the effects of pandemics uncertainty on income inequality We consider a new measure of pandemics uncertainty, the World Pandemic Discussion Index (WPDI), and the post-tax (net) Gini coefficient We focus on the panel data of 141 countries from 1996 to 2020. The results from the Feasible General Least Squares estimations indicate that the WPDI is negatively related to income inequality in 107 non-OECD countries. However, the WPDI is positively associated with income inequality in 34 OECD economies. This evidence remains robust when considering different models, including several controls, and implementing various sensitivity analyses.

The impact of economic complexity on energy demand in OECD countries.

This paper investigates the role of economic complexity on energy demand using the panel dataset of 25 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1978 to 2016. Both real per capita income level and economy-wide real energy price index are critical determinants in energy demand modeling. The battery of the cross-sectional dependency test proposed by Pesaran (2004 and 2007) is used, signaling the presence of cross-sectional dependency in the dataset. Thus, the Westerlund (2007) cointegration test is also used, revealing the long-run relationship between the series. Moreover, the results from using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimations illustrate that real per capita income level positively affects energy demand while real energy price and economic complexity negatively influence on it. From a policy perspective, we suggest increasing technological innovation (i.e., higher economic complexity) will reduce the energy demand. The reduction of massive energy usage may be beneficial for the natural environment's health in the OECD countries.

Does international cooperation affect CO2 emissions? Evidence from OECD countries.

This paper analyzes the role of international cooperation on CO2 emissions growth in 36 OECD economies over the period 1970-2016. The indices of political globalization are the benchmark measure of international cooperation since a higher value of the index of political globalization is an indicator of collaboration in the world. The paper finds that political globalization decreases CO2 emissions growth. The findings remain robust when we consider the sub-indices of political globalization and include various controls. Also, the findings of the panel quantile regressions with the fixed-effects via the method of moments indicate that the effects of per capita income and the initial level of CO2 emissions are higher in more pollutant countries. However, the impact of political globalization on CO2 emissions is stable at different quantiles. The paper also discusses the potential implications for the role of international cooperation on climate change.

Does tourism investment improve the energy efficiency in transportation and residential sectors? Evidence from the OECD economies.

This paper investigates the impact of tourism investments on energy efficiency across the transportation and residential sectors of 32 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development economies. Using annual data from 1995 to 2012, we employ various panel econometric techniques to achieve the study objectives. Given the nature of variables, the paper applies panel autoregressive distributed lag models to estimate the long-run elasticities of energy intensity. The long-run estimates confirm that tourism investments play an essential role in improving energy efficiency across the transportation and residential sectors. Furthermore, the results show that both the foreign direct investment inflows and trade openness also play a considerable role in reducing energy uses across these sectors. Finally, the findings suggest that the tourism investments Granger cause energy efficiency of transportation and residential sectors in the short-run. Given these findings, the paper adds considerable value to the empirical literature and also provides various policy- and practical implications.

Effects of the export product quality on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from developing economies.

Using the new measure of the export quality of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this paper investigates the effects of the product quality of exports on the growth rate of the per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The paper focuses on the panel dataset of 82 developing economies for the period from 1970 to 2014. Along with the index of export quality, we also consider the measures of the per capita income, per capita energy consumption, natural resource rents, and trade openness. The results indicate that there is the positive impact of the quality of exports on carbon dioxide emissions. There is also the positive relationship between the per capita income and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, we find that the trade openness measures are positively related to carbon dioxide emissions. These results are robust to consider different income measures and to divide the developing economies, according to their income levels.

Effects of export concentration on CO2 emissions in developed countries: an empirical analysis.

This paper provides the evidence on the short- and the long-run effects of the export product concentration on the level of CO2 emissions in 19 developed (high-income) economies, spanning the period 1962-2010. To this end, the paper makes use of the nonlinear panel unit root and cointegration tests with multiple endogenous structural breaks. It also considers the mean group estimations, the autoregressive distributed lag model, and the panel quantile regression estimations. The findings illustrate that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is valid in the panel dataset of 19 developed economies. In addition, it documents that a higher level of the product concentration of exports leads to lower CO2 emissions. The results from the panel quantile regressions also indicate that the effect of the export product concentration upon the per capita CO2 emissions is relatively high at the higher quantiles.

A new approach to the renewable energy-growth nexus: evidence from the USA.

The climate change is one of the leading problems in the today's world. The rise of the renewable energy meets the sustainable growth objectives since it can decelerate the climate change. For this purpose, this paper investigates the relationship between the renewable energy consumption and the economic growth in the United States (USA). Theoretically, the paper constructs the growth model that captures the effects of the economic complexity indicator as a measure of capabilities and productivity for exporting the "complex" (high value-added) products. Empirically, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimations and observes that both the economic complexity and the renewable energy consumption lead to a higher rate of economic growth in the USA for the period from 1965 to 2016. The paper also discusses the potential policy implications of the results for achieving the sustainable growth objectives.

Are shocks to renewable energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 54 developing and developed countries.

The renewable energy sources are considered as the important factor to decrease the level of carbon emissions and to promote the global green economy. Understanding the dynamics of renewable energy consumption, this paper analyzes whether there is a unit root in renewable energy consumption in 54 countries over the period 1971-2016. To this end, the unit root test of Narayan-Popp with two endogenous (unknown) breaks is implemented. The paper finds that renewable energy consumption series are stationary around a level and the time trend in 45 of 54 countries. In other words, renewable energy consumption follows a unit root process only in nine countries: Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Israel, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, and Turkey. The evidence implies that renewable energy demand policies, which aimed to decrease the carbon emissions, will only have permanent effects in those nine countries.