Bayesian interim analysis for prospective randomized studies: reanalysis of the acute myeloid leukemia HOVON 132 clinical trial.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard to establish the benefit-risk ratio of novel drugs. However, the evaluation of mature results often takes many years. We hypothesized that the addition of Bayesian inference methods at interim analysis time points might accelerate and enforce the knowledge that such trials may generate. In order to test that hypothesis, we retrospectively applied a Bayesian approach to the HOVON 132 trial, in which 800 newly diagnosed AML patients aged 18 to 65 years were randomly assigned to a "7 + 3" induction with or without lenalidomide. Five years after the first patient was recruited, the trial was negative for its primary endpoint with no difference in event-free survival (EFS) between experimental and control groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, p = 0.96) in the final conventional analysis. We retrospectively simulated interim analyses after the inclusion of 150, 300, 450, and 600 patients using a Bayesian methodology to detect early lack of efficacy signals. The HR for EFS comparing the lenalidomide arm with the control treatment arm was 1.21 (95% CI 0.81-1.69), 1.05 (95% CI 0.86-1.30), 1.00 (95% CI 0.84-1.19), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.87-1.19) at interim analysis 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Complete remission rates were lower in the lenalidomide arm, and early deaths more frequent. A Bayesian approach identified that the probability of a clinically relevant benefit for EFS (HR < 0.76, as assumed in the statistical analysis plan) was very low at the first interim analysis (1.2%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively). Similar observations were made for low probabilities of any benefit regarding CR. Therefore, Bayesian analysis significantly adds to conventional methods applied for interim analysis and may thereby accelerate the performance and completion of phase III trials.

Prognostic Value of FLT3-Internal Tandem Duplication Residual Disease in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

PURPOSE: The applicability of FLT3-internal tandem duplications (FLT3-ITD) for assessing measurable residual disease (MRD) in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in complete remission (CR) has been hampered by patient-specific duplications and potential instability of FLT3-ITD during relapse. Here, we comprehensively investigated the impact of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based FLT3-ITD MRD detection on treatment outcome in a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed AML in relation to established prognostic factors at diagnosis and other MRD measurements, ie, mutant NPM1 and multiparameter flow cytometry. METHODS: In 161 patients with de novo FLT3-ITD AML, NGS was performed at diagnosis and in CR after intensive remission induction treatment. FLT3-ITD MRD status was correlated with the cumulative incidence of relapse and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: NGS-based FLT3-ITD MRD was present in 47 of 161 (29%) patients with AML. Presence of FLT3-ITD MRD was associated with increased risk of relapse (4-year cumulative incidence of relapse, 75% FLT3-ITD MRD v 33% no FLT3-ITD MRD; P < .001) and inferior OS (4-year OS, 31% FLT3-ITD MRD v 57% no FLT3-ITD MRD; P < .001). In multivariate analysis, detection of FLT3-ITD MRD in CR confers independent prognostic significance for relapse (hazard ratio, 3.55; P < .001) and OS (hazard ratio 2.51; P = .002). Strikingly, FLT3-ITD MRD exceeds the prognostic value of most generally accepted clinical and molecular prognostic factors, including the FLT3-ITD allelic ratio at diagnosis and MRD assessment by NGS-based mutant NPM1 detection or multiparameter flow cytometry. CONCLUSION: NGS-based detection of FLT3-ITD MRD in CR identifies patients with AML with profound risk of relapse and death that outcompetes the significance of most established prognostic factors at diagnosis and during therapy, and furnishes support for FLT3-ITD as a clinically relevant biomarker for dynamic disease risk assessment in AML.

Concordance in measurable residual disease result after first and second induction cycle in acute myeloid leukemia: An outcome- and cost-analysis.

Measurable residual disease (MRD) measured using multiparameter flow-cytometry (MFC) has proven to be an important prognostic biomarker in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In addition, MRD is increasingly used to guide consolidation treatment towards a non-allogenic stem cell transplantation treatment for MRD-negative patients in the ELN-2017 intermediate risk group. Currently, measurement of MFC-MRD in bone marrow is used for clinical decision making after 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy. However, measurement after 1 cycle has also been shown to have prognostic value, so the optimal time point remains a question of debate. We assessed the independent prognostic value of MRD results at either time point and concordance between these for 273 AML patients treated within and according to the HOVON-SAKK 92, 102, 103 and 132 trials. Cumulative incidence of relapse, event free survival and overall survival were significantly better for MRD-negative (<0.1%) patients compared to MRD-positive patients after cycle 1 and cycle 2 (p ≤ 0.002, for all comparisons). A total of 196 patients (71.8%) were MRD-negative after cycle 1, of which the vast majority remained negative after cycle 2 (180 patients; 91.8%). In contrast, of the 77 MRD-positive patients after cycle 1, only 41 patients (53.2%) remained positive. A cost reduction of -€571,751 per 100 patients could be achieved by initiating the donor search based on the MRD-result after cycle 1. This equals to a 50.7% cost reduction compared to the current care strategy in which the donor search is initiated for all patients. These results show that MRD after cycle 1 has prognostic value and is highly concordant with MRD status after cycle 2. When MRD-MFC is used to guide consolidation treatment (allo vs non-allo) in intermediate risk patients, allogeneic donor search may be postponed or omitted after cycle 1. Since the majority of MRD-negative patients remain negative after cycle 2, this could safely reduce the number of allogeneic donor searches and reduce costs.

Molecular characterization of mutant TP53 acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome.

Substantial heterogeneity within mutant TP53 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome with excess of blast (MDS-EB) precludes the exact assessment of prognostic impact for individual patients. We performed in-depth clinical and molecular analysis of mutant TP53 AML and MDS-EB to dissect the molecular characteristics in detail and determine its impact on survival. We performed next-generation sequencing on 2200 AML/MDS-EB specimens and assessed the TP53 mutant allelic status (mono- or bi-allelic), the number of TP53 mutations, mutant TP53 clone size, concurrent mutations, cytogenetics, and mutant TP53 molecular minimal residual disease and studied the associations of these characteristics with overall survival. TP53 mutations were detected in 230 (10.5%) patients with AML/MDS-EB with a median variant allele frequency of 47%. Bi-allelic mutant TP53 status was observed in 174 (76%) patients. Multiple TP53 mutations were found in 49 (21%) patients. Concurrent mutations were detected in 113 (49%) patients. No significant difference in any of the aforementioned molecular characteristics of mutant TP53 was detected between AML and MDS-EB. Patients with mutant TP53 have a poor outcome (2-year overall survival, 12.8%); however, no survival difference between AML and MDS-EB was observed. Importantly, none of the molecular characteristics were significantly associated with survival in mutant TP53 AML/MDS-EB. In most patients, TP53 mutations remained detectable in complete remission by deep sequencing (73%). Detection of residual mutant TP53 was not associated with survival. Mutant TP53 AML and MDS-EB do not differ with respect to molecular characteristics and survival. Therefore, mutant TP53 AML/MDS-EB should be considered a distinct molecular disease entity.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy after chemoradiation for locally advanced cervical cancer.

We investigated whether the addition of adjuvant chemotherapy to chemoradiation improves overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis. Systematic searches in the databases of PubMed, Embase and Web of Science yielded 881 articles. Two reviewer authors independently selected 31 articles for full text review and deemed eight studies eligible for inclusion. Two were randomised controlled trials (RCT), one was a large (n = 609) matched-case study and the remaining were small retrospective cohort studies; in total 2150 patients. Risk of bias assessment showed that the RCTs were at low risk and all other studies were at high risk of bias. Pooled hazard ratios for OS and PFS were 0.78 (95%CI 0.45-1.33, p = 0.36) and 0.85 (95%CI 0.65-1.10, p = 0.22), respectively. Analysis stratified by study design and sensitivity analysis showed similar results. Funnel plots showed significant publication bias due to a lack of small studies with negative outcomes.

Adjuvant Systemic Therapy after Chemoradiation and Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Standard of care for locally advanced cervical cancer is chemoradiation and brachytherapy. The addition of adjuvant systemic treatment may improve overall survival. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to summarize evidence on survival outcomes, treatment completion and toxicity. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science were systematically searched for relevant prospective and retrospective studies. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data and assessed study quality. Pooled hazard ratios for survival endpoints were estimated using random effect models. Weighted averages of treatment completion and toxicity rates were calculated and compared by the Fisher exact test. RESULTS: The search returned 612 articles; 35 articles reporting on 29 different studies on adjuvant chemotherapy or immunotherapy were selected for systematic review. Twelve studies on an adjuvant platinum-pyrimidine antagonist or platinum-taxane were included for meta-analysis. The pooled hazard ratios for overall survival were 0.76 (99%CI: 0.43-1.34, p = 0.22) and 0.47 (99%CI: 0.12-1.86, p = 0.16) for the addition of, respectively, a platinum-pyrimidine antagonist or platinum-taxane to chemoradiation and brachytherapy. Completion rates were 82% (95%CI: 76-87%) for platinum-pyrimidine antagonist and 74% (95%CI: 63-85%) for platinum-taxane. Severe acute hematological and gastro-intestinal toxicities were significantly increased by adding adjuvant chemotherapy to chemoradiation and brachytherapy. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of adjuvant platinum-pyrimidine antagonist or platinum-taxane after chemoradiation and brachytherapy does not significantly improve overall survival, while acute toxicity is significantly increased. These adjuvant treatment strategies can therefore not be recommended for unselected patients with locally advanced cervical cancer.

Addition of lenalidomide to intensive treatment in younger and middle-aged adults with newly diagnosed AML: the HOVON-SAKK-132 trial.

Lenalidomide, an antineoplastic and immunomodulatory drug, has therapeutic activity in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), but definitive studies about its therapeutic utility have been lacking. In a phase 3 study, we compared 2 induction regimens in newly diagnosed patients age 18 to 65 years with AML: idarubicine-cytarabine (cycle 1) and daunorubicin and intermediate-dose cytarabine (cycle 2) without or with lenalidomide (15 mg orally on days 1-21). One final consolidation cycle of chemotherapy or autologous stem cell transplantation (auto-SCT) or allogeneic SCT (allo-SCT) was provided according to a prognostic risk and minimal residual disease (MRD)-adapted approach. Event-free survival (EFS; primary end point) and other clinical end points were assessed. A second random assignment in patients in complete response or in complete response with incomplete hematologic recovery after cycle 3 or auto-SCT involved 6 cycles of maintenance with lenalidomide (10 mg on days 1-21) or observation. In all, 392 patients were randomly assigned to the control group, and 388 patients were randomly assigned to lenalidomide induction. At a median follow-up of 41 months, the study revealed no differences in outcome between the treatments (EFS, 44% ± 2% standard error and overall survival, 54% ± 2% at 4 years for both arms) although in an exploratory post hoc analysis, a lenalidomide benefit was suggested in SRSF2-mutant AML. In relation to the previous Dutch-Belgian Hemato-Oncology Cooperative Group and Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (HOVON-SAKK) studies that used a similar 3-cycle regimen but did not pursue an MRD-guided approach, these survival estimates compare markedly more favorably. MRD status after cycle 2 lost prognostic value in intermediate-risk AML in the risk-adjusted treatment context. Maintenance with lenalidomide showed no apparent effect on relapse probability in 88 patients randomly assigned for this part of the study.

Radiation Exposure From Pediatric CT Scans and Subsequent Cancer Risk in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT), a strong diagnostic tool, delivers higher radiation doses than most imaging modalities. As CT use has increased rapidly, radiation protection is important, particularly among children. We evaluate leukemia and brain tumor risk following exposure to low-dose ionizing radiation from CT scans in childhood. METHODS: For a nationwide retrospective cohort of 168 394 children who received one or more CT scans in a Dutch hospital between 1979 and 2012 who were younger than age 18 years, we obtained cancer incidence, vital status, and confounder information by record linkage with external registries. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated using cancer incidence rates from the general Dutch population. Excess relative risks (ERRs) per 100 mGy organ dose were calculated with Poisson regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Standardized incidence ratios were elevated for all cancer sites. Mean cumulative bone marrow doses were 9.5 mGy at the end of follow-up, and leukemia risk (excluding myelodysplastic syndrome) was not associated with cumulative bone marrow dose (44 cases). Cumulative brain dose was on average 38.5 mGy and was statistically significantly associated with risk for malignant and nonmalignant brain tumors combined (ERR/100 mGy: 0.86, 95% confidence interval = 0.20 to 2.22, P = .002, 84 cases). Excluding tuberous sclerosis complex patients did not substantially change the risk. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that CT-related radiation exposure increases brain tumor risk. No association was observed for leukemia. Compared with the general population, incidence of brain tumors was higher in the cohort of children with CT scans, requiring cautious interpretation of the findings.

Molecular Minimal Residual Disease in Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) often reach complete remission, but relapse rates remain high. Next-generation sequencing enables the detection of molecular minimal residual disease in virtually every patient, but its clinical value for the prediction of relapse has yet to be established. METHODS: We conducted a study involving patients 18 to 65 years of age who had newly diagnosed AML. Targeted next-generation sequencing was carried out at diagnosis and after induction therapy (during complete remission). End points were 4-year rates of relapse, relapse-free survival, and overall survival. RESULTS: At least one mutation was detected in 430 out of 482 patients (89.2%). Mutations persisted in 51.4% of those patients during complete remission and were present at various allele frequencies (range, 0.02 to 47%). The detection of persistent DTA mutations (i.e., mutations in DNMT3A, TET2, and ASXL1), which are often present in persons with age-related clonal hematopoiesis, was not correlated with an increased relapse rate. After the exclusion of persistent DTA mutations, the detection of molecular minimal residual disease was associated with a significantly higher relapse rate than no detection (55.4% vs. 31.9%; hazard ratio, 2.14; P<0.001), as well as with lower rates of relapse-free survival (36.6% vs. 58.1%; hazard ratio for relapse or death, 1.92; P<0.001) and overall survival (41.9% vs. 66.1%; hazard ratio for death, 2.06; P<0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed that the persistence of non-DTA mutations during complete remission conferred significant independent prognostic value with respect to the rates of relapse (hazard ratio, 1.89; P<0.001), relapse-free survival (hazard ratio for relapse or death, 1.64; P=0.001), and overall survival (hazard ratio for death, 1.64; P=0.003). A comparison of sequencing with flow cytometry for the detection of residual disease showed that sequencing had significant additive prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with AML, the detection of molecular minimal residual disease during complete remission had significant independent prognostic value with respect to relapse and survival rates, but the detection of persistent mutations that are associated with clonal hematopoiesis did not have such prognostic value within a 4-year time frame. (Funded by the Queen Wilhelmina Fund Foundation of the Dutch Cancer Society and others.).

Trends and patterns of computed tomography scan use among children in The Netherlands: 1990-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends and patterns in CT usage among children (aged 0-17 years) in The Netherlands during the period 1990-2012. METHODS: Lists of electronically archived paediatric CT scans were requested from the Radiology Information Systems (RIS) of Dutch hospitals which reported >10 paediatric CT scans annually in a survey conducted in 2010. Data included patient identification, birth date, gender, scan date and body part scanned. For non-participating hospitals and for years prior to electronic archiving in some participating hospitals, data were imputed by calendar year and hospital type (academic, general with <500 beds, general with ≥ 500 beds). RESULTS: Based on 236,066 CT scans among 146,368 patients performed between 1990 and 2012, estimated annual numbers of paediatric CT scans in The Netherlands increased from 7,731 in 1990 to 26,023 in 2012. More than 70 % of all scans were of the head and neck. During the last decade, substantial increases of more than 5 % per year were observed in general hospitals with fewer than 500 beds and among children aged 10 years or older. CONCLUSION: The estimated number of paediatric CT scans has more than tripled in The Netherlands during the last two decades. KEY POINTS: • Paediatric CT in The Netherlands has tripled during the last two decades. • The number of paediatric CTs increased through 2012 in general hospitals. • Paediatric CTs continued to increase among children aged 10 years or older.

Comparative Cistromics Reveals Genomic Cross-talk between FOXA1 and ERα in Tamoxifen-Associated Endometrial Carcinomas.

Tamoxifen, a small-molecule antagonist of the transcription factor estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) used to treat breast cancer, increases risks of endometrial cancer. However, no parallels of ERα transcriptional action in breast and endometrial tumors have been found that might explain this effect. In this study, we addressed this issue with a genome-wide assessment of ERα-chromatin interactions in surgical specimens obtained from patients with tamoxifen-associated endometrial cancer. ERα was found at active enhancers in endometrial cancer cells as marked by the presence of RNA polymerase II and the histone marker H3K27Ac. These ERα binding sites were highly conserved between breast and endometrial cancer and enriched in binding motifs for the transcription factor FOXA1, which displayed substantial overlap with ERα binding sites proximal to genes involved in classical ERα target genes. Multifactorial ChIP-seq data integration from the endometrial cancer cell line Ishikawa illustrated a functional genomic network involving ERα and FOXA1 together with the enhancer-enriched transcriptional regulators p300, FOXM1, TEAD4, FNFIC, CEBP8, and TCF12. Immunohistochemical analysis of 230 primary endometrial tumor specimens showed that lack of FOXA1 and ERα expression was associated with a longer interval between breast cancer and the emergence of endometrial cancer, exclusively in tamoxifen-treated patients. Our results define conserved sites for a genomic interplay between FOXA1 and ERα in breast cancer and tamoxifen-associated endometrial cancer. In addition, FOXA1 and ERα are associated with the interval time between breast cancer and endometrial cancer only in tamoxifen-treated breast cancer patients. Cancer Res; 76(13); 3773-84. ©2016 AACR.

Does adjuvant chemoradiotherapy improve the prognosis of gastric cancer after an r1 resection? Results from a dutch cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on survival of non-metastatic gastric cancer patients who had undergone an R1 resection. METHODS: We compared the survival of patients after an R1 gastric cancer resection from the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry who did not receive adjuvant CRT (no-CRT group) with the survival of resected patients who had been treated with adjuvant CRT (CRT group) at our institute. Patients who had a resection between 2002 and 2011 were included. CRT consisted of radiotherapy (45 Gy) combined with concurrent cisplatin- or 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. The impact of CRT treatment on overall survival was assessed using multivariable Cox regression and stratified propensity score analysis. RESULTS: A series of 409 gastric cancer patients who had undergone an R1 resection were studied (no-CRT, N = 369; CRT, N = 40). In the no-CRT group, median age was higher (70 vs. 57 years; p < 0.001) and the percentage of patients with diffuse-type tumors was lower (43 vs. 80 %; p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in pathological T- and N-classification. There was a significant difference in median overall survival between the no-CRT and CRT group (13 vs. 24 months; p = 0.003). In a multivariable analysis, adjuvant CRT was an independent prognostic factor for improved overall survival (hazard ratio 0.54; 95 % confidence interval 0.35-0.84). This effect of CRT was further supported by propensity score analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant CRT was associated with an improved survival in patients who had undergone an R1 resection for gastric cancer.