Direct and indirect savings from parallel imports in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: The aim was: i) to quantify the direct and indirect savings from parallel imports in Sweden during a period when sellers were forbidden from giving discounts to pharmacies, and ii) to study if the effects of competition from parallel imports on list prices became smaller in absolute size when sellers were allowed to give discounts to pharmacies. METHODS: We analyzed the monthly prices for 3068 products during 61 months when discounts were forbidden and for 2504 products during 84 months when discounts were allowed. The price effects were estimated using dynamic models that rendered lagged numbers of competitors into valid and strong instruments for the current values. RESULTS: When discounts were forbidden, parallel imports had a market share of 16% and were on average 9% cheaper than locally sourced drugs, which yielded a direct saving of 231 million Swedish kronor (SEK) (24 million EUR) per year. Also, parallel imports reduced the prices of products with the same substance by, on average, 6% in the long-term, which yielded indirect savings of 421 million SEK (44 million EUR) per year. In total, parallel imports reduced the cost for on-patent pharmaceuticals by 4%. When discounts were allowed, the average gap in list price between parallel imports and locally sourced products was reduced to 0.8%, and the list prices of locally sourced products were no longer significantly affected by competition from parallel imports. CONCLUSION: When discounts were allowed, the savings of parallel imports through lower list prices were replaced by savings of pharmacies through secret discounts.

Can Private Provision of Primary Care Contribute to the Spread of Antibiotic Resistance? A Study of Antibiotic Prescription in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Growing rates of antibiotic resistance, caused by increasing antibiotic use, pose a threat by making antibiotics less effective in treating infections. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to study whether physicians working at privately and publicly owned health centres differed in the likelihood of prescribing antibiotics and choosing broad-spectrum over narrow-spectrum antibiotics. METHODS: To estimate the effect of ownership on the probability of a prescribed drug being an antibiotic, we analysed all 4.5 million prescriptions issued from 2011 to 2015 at primary health centres in Västerbotten, Sweden. We controlled for patient age, sex, number of prescriptions per patient, and month of prescription, and used a maximum likelihood logit estimator. We then analysed how ownership affected the likelihood of a prescribed antibiotic being broad spectrum. We also used aggregated data to estimate the impact of the number of private health centres on the number of antibiotic prescriptions per inhabitant and the proportion of broad-spectrum antibiotics. RESULTS: Holding other factors constant, private physicians were 6% more likely to prescribe antibiotics and 9% more likely to choose broad-spectrum antibiotics. An increase by one additional private health centre was positively associated with an increase in the number of antibiotic prescriptions per inhabitant and a higher proportion, although not significant, of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescriptions. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that private physicians prescribe more antibiotics, especially broad-spectrum antibiotics, than public physicians. Therefore, it is crucial to provide health centres with incentives to follow guidelines for antibiotic prescription, especially when the level of private provision of primary healthcare is high.

Price competition in pharmaceuticals - Evidence from 1303 Swedish markets.

We study the short- and long-term price effects of the number of competing firms, using panel-data on 1303 distinct pharmaceutical markets for 78 months within a reference-price system. We use actual transaction prices in an institutional setting with little scope for non-price competition and where simultaneity problems can be addressed effectively. In the long term, the price of generics is found to decrease by 81% when the number of firms selling generics with the same strength, form and similar package size is increased from 1 to 10. Nearly only competition at this fine-grained level matters; the effect of firms selling other products with the same active substance, but with different package size, form, or strength, is only a tenths as large. Half of the price reductions take place immediately and 70% within three months. Also, prices of originals are found to react to competition, but far less and much slower.

Reforming the Swedish pharmaceuticals market: consequences for costs per defined daily dose.

In 2009 and 2010, the Swedish pharmaceuticals market was reformed. One of the stated policy goals was to achieve low costs for pharmaceutical products dispensed in Sweden. We use price and sales data for off-patent brand-name and generic pharmaceuticals to estimate a log-linear regression model, allowing us to assess how the policy changes affected the cost per defined daily dose. The estimated effect is an 18 % cost reduction per defined daily dose at the retail level and a 34 % reduction in the prices at the wholesale level (pharmacies' purchase prices). The empirical results suggest that the cost reductions were caused by the introduction of a price cap, an obligation to dispense the lowest-cost generic substitute available in the whole Swedish market, and the introduction of well-defined exchange groups. The reforms thus reduced the cost per defined daily dose for consumers while being advantageous also for the pharmacies, who saw their retail margins increase. However, pharmaceutical firms supplying off-patent pharmaceuticals experienced a clear reduction in the price received for their products.

Public Provision and Cross-Border Health Care.

We study how the optimal public provision of health care depends on whether or not individuals have an option to seek publicly financed treatment in other regions. We find that, relative to the first-best solution, the government has an incentive to over-provide health care to low-income individuals. When cross-border health care takes place, this incentive is solely explained by that over-provision facilitates redistribution. The reason why more health care facilitates redistribution is that high-ability individuals mimicking low-ability individuals benefit the least from health care when health and labor supply are complements. Without cross-border health care, higher demand for health care among high-income individuals also contributes to the over-provision given that high-income individuals do not work considerably less than low-income individuals and that the government cannot discriminate between the income groups by giving them different access to health care.

Parallel imports and a mandatory substitution reform: a kick or a muff for price competition in pharmaceuticals?

What has been the effect of competition from parallel imports on prices of locally sourced on-patent drugs? Did the 2002 Swedish mandatory substitution reform increase this competition? To answer these questions, we carried out difference-in-differences estimation on monthly data for a panel of all locally sourced on-patent prescription drugs sold in Sweden during the 40 months from January 2001 to April 2004. On average, facing competition from parallel imports caused a 15-17% fall in price. While the reform increased the effect of competition from parallel imports, it was only by 0.9%. The reform, however, did increase the effect of therapeutic competition by 1.6%.

Price and welfare effects of a pharmaceutical substitution reform.

The price effects of the Swedish pharmaceutical substitution reform are analyzed using data for a panel of all pharmaceutical product sold in Sweden in 1997-2007. The price reduction due to the reform was estimated to average 10% and was found to be significantly larger for brand-name pharmaceuticals than for generics. The results also imply that the reform amplified the effect that generic entry has on brand-name prices by a factor of 10. Results of a demand estimation imply that the price reductions increased total pharmaceutical consumption by 8% and consumer welfare by SEK 2.7 billion annually.

The effect of health care expenditure on sickness absence.

Increased health care expenditure could be used to improve quality of care or reduce waiting time and could therefore be expected to affect the health and sickness absence of a population. Still, based on data from a panel of Swedish municipalities, public health care expenditure was found to have no, or only a negligible effect on absence due to sickness or disability. The same result was obtained when separate estimates were done for men and women and for absence due to sickness and disability.

Inequality in mortality in Vietnam during a period of rapid transition.

Vietnam has experienced rapid economic growth following the transition, which began in the mid 1980s, from a planned agriculture based economy to a more market orientated one. In this paper, the associations between socioeconomic variables and mortality for 41,000 adults in Northern Vietnam followed from January 1999 to March 2008 are estimated using Cox's proportionally hazard models. Also, we use decomposition techniques to investigate the relative importance of socioeconomic factors for explaining inequality in age-standardized mortality risk. The results confirm previously found negative associations between mortality and income and education, for both men and women. We also found that marital status, at least for men, explain a large and growing part of the inequality. Finally, estimation results for relative education variables suggest that there exist positive spillover effects of education, meaning that higher education of one's neighbors or spouse might reduce ones mortality risk.

Are private physicians more likely to veto generic substitution of prescribed pharmaceuticals?

Physicians' decisions whether or not to veto generic substitution were analyzed using a sample of 350,000 pharmaceutical prescriptions from the county of Västerbotten, Sweden. Although generic substitution reforms have been introduced in many European countries and American states, this is to my knowledge the first study on this topic. The topic is important since physicians' decisions regarding generic substitution not only directly affect patients' and insurers' costs for pharmaceuticals, but also indirectly since more bans against substitution reduces price-competition between pharmaceutical firms. The primary purpose was to test if physicians working at private practices were more likely to oppose substitution than county-employed physicians working on salary. It was found that private physicians were 50-80% more likely to veto substitution. Also, the probability of a veto was found to increase as patients' copayments decreased. This might indicate moral hazard in insurance, though other explanations are plausible.

Fixed budgets as a cost containment measure for pharmaceuticals.

In Västerbotten County, Sweden, there are two health centers which (in contrast to all other health centers in the region) bear strict responsibility over their pharmaceutical budget. This study examined whether the prices and quantities of pharmaceuticals prescribed by physicians working at these health centers differ significantly from those prescribed by physicians at health centers with open-ended budgets. Estimation results using matching methods, which allows us to compare similar patients at the different health centers, show that the introduction of fixed pharmaceutical budgets did not affect physicians' prescription behavior, indicating that fixed budgets may not be an efficient measure to reduce costs. Another explanation is that the health centers under study already had taken measures to contain costs, making it hard to further reduce costs.