Identifying multiple stressors that influence eutrophication in a Finnish agricultural river.

In Finland, a recent ecological classification of surface waters showed that the rivers and coastal waters need attention to improve their ecological state. We combined eco-hydrological and empirical models to study chlorophyll-a concentration as an indicator of eutrophication in a small agricultural river. We used a modified story-and-simulation method to build three storylines for possible changes in future land use due to climate change and political change. The main objective in the first storyline is to stimulate economic activity but also to promote the sustainable and efficient use of resources. The second storyline is based on the high awareness but poor regulation of environmental protection, and the third is to survive as individual countries instead of being part of a unified Europe. We assumed trade of agricultural products to increase to countries outside Europe. We found that chlorophyll-a concentration in the river depended on total phosphorus concentration. In addition, there was a positive synergistic interaction between total phosphorus and water temperature. In future storylines, chlorophyll-a concentration increased due to land use and climate change. Climate change mainly had an indirect influence via increasing nutrient losses from intensified agriculture. We found that well-designed agri-environmental measures had the potential to decrease nutrient loading from fields, as long as the predicted increase in temperature remained under 2 °C. However, we were not able to achieve the nutrient reduction stated in current water protection targets. In addition, the ecological status of the river deteriorated. The influence of temperature on chlorophyll-a growth indicates that novel measures for shading rivers to decrease water temperature may be needed in the future.

Runoff and nutrient losses during winter periods in cold climates--requirements to nutrient simulation models.

Large areas in Europe may experience frozen soils during winter periods which pose special challenges to modelling. Extensive data are collected in small agricultural catchments in Nordic and Baltic countries. An analysis on measurements, carried out in four small agricultural catchments has shown that a considerable amount of the yearly nutrient loss occurs during the freezing period. A freezing period was defined as the time period indicated by the maximum and minimum points on the cumulative degree-day curve. On average 6-32% of the yearly runoff was generated during this period while N-loss varied from 5-35% and P loss varied from 3-33%. The results indicate that infiltration into frozen soils might occur during the freezing period and that the runoff generating processes, at least during a considerable part of the freezing period, are rather similar compared to the processes outside the freezing period. Freeze-thaw cycles affect the infiltration capacity and aggregate stability, thereby the erosion and nutrient losses. The Norwegian catchment had a high P loss during the freezing period compared to the other catchments, most likely caused by catchment characteristics such as slope, soil types, tillage methods and fertiliser application. It is proposed to use data, collected on small agricultural dominated catchments, in the calibration and validation of watershed management models and to take into account runoff and nutrient loss processes which are representative for cold climates, thereby obtaining reliable results.

Nitrogen in river basins: sources, retention in the surface waters and peatlands, and fluxes to estuaries in Finland.

Nitrogen export from diffuse and point sources and its retention in the major river basins of Finland is quantified and discussed. The estimated total export from river-basins in Finland was 119,000 tonnes N a(-1) for the period 1993 to 1998 based on N export from different land use types defined in a GIS-based assessment model, incorporated with estimates of N inputs from atmospheric deposition and point sources. Agriculture contributes 38% of the total export, varying in the range 35-85% in the south-western basins and 0-25% in the northern basins. This estimate of N export from agriculture was based on regional N balances together with data from small agricultural research catchments. Forestry contributes on average 9%, with increasing dominance towards eastern and northern parts of the country: from 2% to 15% in the southern-mid-western Finland basins to 10-30% in the large northern basins. 'Background' N export from forests on both mineral and organic soils contributes 27% on average; in the northern basins it may contribute from 40% up to 90% of the total load. The estimate was calculated based on practically all data available from 42 small, experimental catchments in Finland. Of the total N input to Finnish river-systems, 0% to 68% was retained in surface waters and/or peatlands, with a mean retention of 22%. The highest retention of N (36-61%) was observed in the basins with the highest lake percentages. The lowest retention (0-10%) of N was in the coastal basins with practically no lakes. In the national N mass balance, 38,000 tonnes N a(-1) (32%) was estimated as lake retention and 4,000 tonnes N a(-1) (3%) as retention in peatlands. On the basis of mass balances and sensitivity analysis, retention was in most cases estimated to be in the range of 7.5-12.5 kg ha(-1)a(-1) in lakes and 0-1.5 kg ha(-1)a(-1) in peatlands. The model results were tested using the split-sample technique and uncertainty estimates for different data sources are provided and discussed.