A high-dose preparation of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria in the prevention of antibiotic-associated and Clostridium difficile diarrhoea in older people admitted to hospital: a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel arm trial (PLACIDE).

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic-associated diarrhoea (AAD) occurs most commonly in older people admitted to hospital and within 12 weeks of exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics. Although usually a mild and self-limiting illness, the 15-39% of cases caused by Clostridium difficile infection [C. difficile diarrhoea (CDD)] may result in severe diarrhoea and death. Previous research has shown that probiotics, live microbial organisms that, when administered in adequate numbers, are beneficial to health, may be effective in preventing AAD and CDD. OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a high-dose, multistrain probiotic in the prevention of AAD and CDD in older people admitted to hospital. DESIGN: A multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-arm trial. SETTING: Medical, surgical and elderly care inpatient wards in five NHS hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Eligible patients were aged ≥ 65 years, were exposed to one or more oral or parenteral antibiotics and were without pre-existing diarrhoeal disorders, recent CDD or at risk of probiotic adverse effects. Out of 17,420 patients screened, 2981 (17.1%) were recruited. Participants were allocated sequentially according to a computer-generated random allocation sequence; 1493 (50.1%) were allocated to the probiotic and 1488 (49.9%) to the placebo arm. INTERVENTIONS: Vegetarian capsules containing two strains of lactobacilli and two strains of bifidobacteria (a total of 6 × 10(10) organisms per day) were taken daily for 21 days. The placebo was inert maltodextrin powder in identical capsules. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The occurrence of AAD within 8 weeks and CDD within 12 weeks of recruitment was determined by participant follow-up and checking hospital laboratory records by research nurses who were blind to arm allocation. RESULTS: Analysis based on the treatment allocated included 2941 (98.7%) participants. Potential risk factors for AAD at baseline were similar in the two study arms. Frequency of AAD (including CDD) was similar in the probiotic (159/1470, 10.8%) and placebo arms [153/1471, 10.4%; relative risk (RR) 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.28; p = 0.71]. CDD was an uncommon cause of AAD and occurred in 12/1470 (0.8%) participants in the probiotic and 17/1471 (1.2%) in the placebo arm (RR 0.71; 95% CI 0.34 to 1.47; p = 0.35). Duration and severity of diarrhoea, common gastrointestinal symptoms, serious adverse events and quality of life measures were also similar in the two arms. Total health-care costs per patient did not differ significantly between the probiotic (£8020; 95% CI £7620 to £8420) and placebo (£8010; 95% CI £7600 to £8420) arms. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that probiotic administration was effective in preventing AAD. Although there was a trend towards reduced CDD in the probiotic arm, on balance, the administration of this probiotic seems unlikely to benefit older patients exposed to antibiotics. A better understanding of the pathogenesis of AAD and CDD and the strain-specific effects of probiotics is needed before further clinical trials of specific microbial preparations are undertaken. Evaluation of the effectiveness of other probiotics will be difficult where other measures, such as antibiotic stewardship, have reduced CDD rates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN70017204. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 57. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Mycobacterium bovis shedding patterns from experimentally infected calves and the effect of concurrent infection with bovine viral diarrhoea virus.

Concurrent infection of cattle with bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) and Mycobacterium bovis is considered to be a possible risk factor for onward transmission of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in infected cattle and is known to compromise diagnostic tests. A comparison is made here of M. bovis shedding (i.e. release) characteristics from 12 calves, six experimentally co-infected with BVDV and six infected with M. bovis alone, using simple models of bacterial replication. These statistical and mathematical models account for the intermittent or episodic nature of shedding, the dynamics of within-host bacterial proliferation and the sampling distribution from a given shedding episode. We show that while there are distinct differences among the shedding patterns of calves given the same infecting dose, there is no statistically significant difference between the two groups of calves. Such differences as there are, can be explained solely in terms of the shedding frequency, but with all calves potentially excreting the same amount of bacteria in a given shedding episode post-infection. The model can be thought of as a process of the bacteria becoming established in a number of discrete foci of colonization, rather than as a more generalized infection of the respiratory tract. In this case, the variability in the shedding patterns of the infected calves can be explained solely by differences in the number of foci established and shedding being from individual foci over time. Should maximum exposure on a particular occasion be a critical consideration for cattle-to-cattle transmission of BTB, cattle that shed only intermittently may still make an important contribution to the spread and persistence of the disease.

Low-coverage vaccination strategies for the conservation of endangered species.

The conventional objective of vaccination programmes is to eliminate infection by reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one, which generally requires vaccination of the majority of individuals. In populations of endangered wildlife, the intervention required to deliver such coverage can be undesirable and impractical; however, endangered populations are increasingly threatened by outbreaks of infectious disease for which effective vaccines exist. As an alternative, wildlife epidemiologists could adopt a vaccination strategy that protects a population from the consequences of only the largest outbreaks of disease. Here we provide a successful example of this strategy in the Ethiopian wolf, the world's rarest canid, which persists in small subpopulations threatened by repeated outbreaks of rabies introduced by domestic dogs. On the basis of data from past outbreaks, we propose an approach that controls the spread of disease through habitat corridors between subpopulations and that requires only low vaccination coverage. This approach reduces the extent of rabies outbreaks and should significantly enhance the long-term persistence of the population. Our study shows that vaccination used to enhance metapopulation persistence through elimination of the largest outbreaks of disease requires lower coverage than the conventional objective of reducing the reproduction number of an infectious agent to less than one.

The role of endothelial dysfunction in the pathophysiology of erectile dysfunction in diabetes and in determining response to treatment.

BACKGROUND: Erectile dysfunction (ED) in diabetes is related to autonomic neuropathy and endothelial dysfunction. We studied the relative importance of these factors in diabetic and non-diabetic men with ED and determined if they predict responses to treatment with sildenafil. METHODS: Thirty-three men, aged 35-65 years, with ED (20 diabetic, 13 non-diabetic), 15 of whom were sildenafil responders and 18 non-responders, were compared with 30 age and risk-matched control subjects (15 diabetic, 15 non-diabetic). Subjects with ED completed the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF) questionnaire. Endothelial function was assessed by changes in brachio-radial and femoro-tibial arterial pulse-wave velocity (pulse-wave velocity) during reactive hyperaemia, expressed as percentage endothelium-dependent dilatation. Autonomic function was assessed by heart rate variation during expiration and inspiration (E/I ratio) and during the valsalva manoeuvre. RESULTS: The respective changes in pulse-wave velocity, in the arm and leg [mean (sd)] were 0.71 (6.5)% and 3.5 (6.4)% in the impotent diabetic men, 0.7 (7.6)% and 2.4 (5.9)% in the non-diabetic impotent men, -0.68 (5.7)% and -1.31 (7.2)% in the non-impotent diabetic men and 7.7 (3.7)% and 7.6 (3.4)% in the control subjects. There was a significant interaction between ED and diabetic status such that there was significantly impaired vascular response in the diabetic group (both with and without ED) and in the non-diabetic group with ED compared with the non-diabetic control group (P = 0.01 and P = 0.001 for brachio-radial and femoro-tibial measures, respectively). The E/I ratios of the diabetic men were significantly lower than those of the control subjects [1.17 (0.14) vs. 1.33 (0.16), P < 0.02), but there were no differences in the measures of autonomic neuropathy between the groups with ED and those with normal erectile function. Amongst diabetic men, the initial IIEF scores (maximum score 30, low score indicates more severe ED) were significantly higher in sildenafil-responders than non-responders [16.3 (8.4), vs. 6.8 (7 1), P < 0.02]. The rate of sildenafil response was not significantly affected by the measures of endothelial or autonomic function. CONCLUSIONS: ED in both diabetic and non-diabetic men is characterized by marked endothelial dysfunction in comparison with non-diabetic control subjects. Response to sildenafil is not predicted by either endothelial function or autonomic function, but in diabetic men appears to be related to the initial degree of erectile dysfunction.

Descriptive analysis of the results of an anonymous postal survey of the occurrence of scrapie in Great Britain in 2002.

An anonymous postal survey was conducted in 2002 to estimate the proportion of farms in Great Britain affected with scrapie and to gather information on the likely risk factors for the occurrence of the disease; the response rate was 53 per cent. The survey showed that 1 per cent of the respondents thought they had had scrapie in their flock in the previous 12 months, and that 12 per cent thought they had had scrapie in the past. The results of the survey were consistent with the results of a similar survey carried out in 1998, and with notification patterns, but in 1998 approximately 3 per cent of farmers reported having had scrapie in the previous 12 months. It is not clear whether the apparent decrease in the prevalence of scrapie is real or whether it may be due to factors such as sampling biases, or to the increasing knowledge of the signs of scrapie shown by the respondents in 2002.

Monitoring trends in obesity in South Wales using routine data.

AIM: To use existing data on height and weight of 5 year old children, routinely recorded annually as part of the school entry medical, to monitor trends in obesity over the last 16 years in three South Wales localities. METHODS: Body mass index (BMI) and percentage of children over the cut off points for being overweight or obese proposed by the International Obesity Task Force were determined in 46,073 children who had height, weight, and sex recorded each school year (between 1986/87 and 2001/02) on the National Child Health Computer System held at the Swansea NHS Trust. RESULTS: With the exception of one year, the coverage for BMI measurements ranged between 87% and 99%. The accuracy of measurement and data entry was identified as suspect in some cases, and although some data entry errors could be corrected, 14% of BMI measurements were inadmissible. Logistic regression analysis of BMI trends in the remainder showed that the percentage of 5 year olds classified as overweight or obese had increased significantly over the time period and that the rate of change in girls was significantly greater than that in boys. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obese children have increased in frequency in this population. The Child Health Computer System is potentially a valuable source of information on the health status of populations and should be capable of monitoring trends in obesity. However, accuracy of measurement and data entry need to be improved, and the system, to be useful on a national basis, needs to be amalgamated at a higher level than individual NHS Trusts.

Errors associated with milk cell counting.

The accuracy of somatic cell counts in milk samples was investigated in four studies. First, the counts recorded by one milk buyer in one supply over six months ranged from 105,000 to 401,000 cells/ml with no apparent changes in the volume of milk consigned or the level of mastitis in the herd that would explain this wide range. Secondly, the counts in daily samples from one bulk milk supply for 28 days ranged from 84,000 to 282,000 cells/ml, again with no apparent changes in the performance of the herd to explain the wide range. Thirdly, the replicated counts recorded for one sample by three separate laboratories agreed closely; however, when a sample with a high cell count was interspersed then two of the three laboratories reported high cell counts suggestive of 'carry-over' in excess of the 2 per cent 'allowable' Finally, cell count data from three separate laboratories on samples from 21 cows for 33 days revealed problems with the misidentification of samples on the farm in 1 per cent of the samples, and misidentification and mishandling of 1 to 2.6 per cent of the samples in the laboratories. All three laboratories differentiated samples from cows with subclinical and clinical mastitis, but the mean cell count of the uninfected cows varied between the laboratories with one of them recording statistically significantly higher counts over the period.

A scrapie epidemic in Cyprus.

Scrapie is endemic in the sheep flocks of many countries, but good epidemiological information on this disease is scarce. Data on the initial stages of an epidemic are even more rare. We describe the ongoing epidemic of scrapie in Cyprus that has been tracked since it began in the mid-1980s. The early stages of the spread of scrapie from farm to farm, between 1985 and 2000, is analysed with a simple mathematical model. The flock-to-flock basic reproductive number (R0) for the spread of scrapie was estimated at between 1.4 and 1.8. The impact of interventions on the control of the epidemic are discussed from an epidemiological and economic point of view. Early identification of scrapie cases on farms can have a large impact on the number of farms affected. The long period before detection of disease in a flock means that policies based on whole-flock slaughter can be inefficient in preventing spread. Under a range of scenarios, a concentration of resources on early detection and quarantine may be more effective in terms of both the costs and control of the epidemic.

Risk of scrapie in British sheep of different prion protein genotype.

There is a well-established association between sheep prion protein (PrP) genotype and the risk of death from scrapie. Certain genotypes are clearly associated with susceptibility to the disease and others to resistance. However, there have been no attempts to quantify the disease risk for all 15 PrP genotypes. Here, datasets of the PrP genotypes of nearly 14 000 British sheep and of more than 1500 confirmed scrapie cases were combined to yield an estimate of scrapie risk (reported cases per annum per million sheep of the genotype, or RCAM) for British sheep. The greatest scrapie risk by far, ranging from 225 to 545 RCAM, was for the VRQ-encoding genotypes ARQ/VRQ, ARH/VRQ and VRQ/VRQ. The next greatest risk (37 RCAM) was for the ARQ/ARQ genotype. The ARR/ARR genotype was the only numerically significant genotype for which no scrapie cases have been reported. The AHQ allele conferred resistance and the risk of scrapie in AHQ/VRQ sheep was very low (0.7 RCAM), although there was a higher and moderate risk for the AHQ homozygote (5 RCAM). The ARH allele appeared to confer susceptibility when encoded with VRQ, but possible resistance when encoded with other alleles. Scrapie risk varied with age: for VRQ/VRQ and ARH/VRQ the risk peaked at 2 years of age; that for ARQ/VRQ peaked at 3 years. There was some evidence that, following the lower risk at 4 and 5 years, a second rise occurred from about 6 years. Comparison with other published data indicated that the scrapie risk of certain PrP genotypes may differ between Great Britain and other countries.

Investigation of trace elements in soil as risk factors in the epidemiology of scrapie.

Scrapie is a fatal transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of sheep and goats which is thought to be caused by a conformational change of the normal prion protein to its pathological isoform. It has been speculated that this change may be mediated by an interaction between the prion protein and various trace elements, in particular manganese and copper, and that the levels of trace elements in soils may therefore be risk factors for TSEs. This hypothesis was tested by comparing the level of trace elements in the soils on farms with and without scrapie and on those with a higher and lower incidence of the disease. The levels of trace elements were obtained from the UK's National Soil Inventory and deficiencies reported by farmers. The results provide no evidence that trace elements are risk factors for scrapie on farms, and the variations in the levels of trace elements in soils at regional scales do not account for the regional differences in the prevalence of scrapie.

Epidemiological implications of the susceptibility to BSE of putatively resistant sheep.

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious pound 120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep.

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

Modelling the national scrapie eradication programme in the UK.

In accordance with a policy to eliminate all transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from the food chain, a national untargeted ram breeding programme to eliminate scrapie in the UK is in the final stages of planning. Here we formulate a model of flock-to-flock scrapie transmission, in order to consider the effect of a targeted breeding programme which is in the early stages of consideration. We estimate the size of the susceptible flock population, and discuss implications for potential control programmes. Targeting all rams and ewes in highly susceptible flocks rather than rams in all flocks will eradicate scrapie more quickly, and so is likely to be beneficial as long as suitable penalties or incentives are available to facilitate their identification. A more restricted programme aimed only at highly affected flocks would be much easier to implement and crucially will eradicate scrapie just as quickly. This will leave behind a residue population of susceptible sheep, which could then be gradually removed by a more general breeding programme.

Unique T cell effector functions elicited by Plasmodium falciparum epitopes in malaria-exposed Africans tested by three T cell assays.

Natural immunity to malaria is characterized by low level CD4 T cell reactivity detected by either lymphoproliferation or IFN-gamma secretion. Here we show a doubling in the detection rate of responders to the carboxyl terminus of circumsporozoite protein (CS) of Plasmodium falciparum by employing three T cell assays simultaneously: rapid IFN-gamma secretion (ex vivo ELISPOT), IFN-gamma secretion after reactivation of memory T cells and expansion in vitro (cultured ELISPOT), and lymphoproliferation. Remarkably, for no individual peptide did a positive response for one T cell effector function correlate with any other. Thus these CS epitopes elicited unique T cell response patterns in malaria-exposed donors. Novel or important epitope responses may therefore be missed if only one T cell assay is employed. A borderline correlation was found between anti-CS Ab levels and proliferative responses, but no correlation was found with ex vivo or cultured IFN-gamma responses. This suggested that the proliferating population, but not the IFN-gamma-secreting cells, contained cells that provide help for Ab production. The data suggest that natural immunity to malaria is a complex function of T cell subgroups with different effector functions and has important implications for future studies of natural T cell immunity.

Modelling host cell availability and the crowding effect in Eimeria infections.

Within-host mathematical models of Eimeria maxima and Eimeria praecox infections of the chicken are presented and used to investigate the role of host cell availability as a possible determinant of the so-called 'crowding effect'; whereby the fecundity of the parasites decreases as infectious dose increases. Assumptions about the number of available host cells, the average lifespan of these cells and the age structure within the host-cell population were made and mathematical models were constructed and combined with experimental data to test whether these conditions could reproduce the crowding effect in the two species. Experimental data demonstrated that crowding during in vivo infections was apparent following very low infectious doses, but none of the models could adequately reproduce crowding at the same doses while maintaining realistic estimates of the dynamics of the enterocyte pool. However, both the size and lifespan of the enterocyte pool were demonstrated to have substantial effects on the fecundity of the infections, particularly at higher doses. These data indicate that host cell availability cannot be solely responsible for the crowding effect. Alternative factors such as the influence of the primary immune response to the parasite may also be explored using within-host models and other applications of these models are discussed.

The flock-to-flock force of infection for scrapie in Britain.

A postal survey of British sheep farmers provided information on the proportion of farms that experienced their first case of scrapie in each year between 1962 and 1998. We found no evidence of a large increase in the proportion of scrapie-affected farms prior to, during or following the epidemic of BSE in British cattle. After correcting for between-farm heterogeneity in the probability of acquiring scrapie, we estimated the yearly between-flock force of infection since 1962. The current force of infection is estimated at approximately 0.0045 per farm per year and combined with a simple model of scrapie spread provides an estimate of the average duration of a scrapie outbreak on an individual farm. Considering all farms, the average outbreak lasts for five years, but if only those farms that have cases in animals born on the farm are considered, it lasts 15 years. We use these parameter estimates to compare the proportion of farms with scrapie in time periods of different lengths. In the survey, 2.7% of farms had a case in 1998. The 5.3% of farms reporting having a case between 1993 and 1997 is consistent with the hypothesis that the scrapie force of infection remained constant over this period.