Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting.

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social-ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.

La incorporación de las tierras privadas a la planeación de la conservación regional y nacional ha sido un reto a pesar de su importancia como hábitat para especies en peligro y como componentes nucleares de las redes funcionales de áreas protegidas. La identificación de las localidades en donde sea probable que los propietarios privados participen en las iniciativas de conservación puede ayudar a evitar conflictos costosos y a aclarar las compensaciones entre los beneficios ecológicos y los costos sociopolíticos. La evaluación empírica y espacialmente explícita de los factores asociados con la conservación en tierras privadas es una herramienta emergente usada para la identificación de oportunidades de conservación en el futuro. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los datos sobre la conservación en tierras privadas es reportada voluntariamente y está incompleta, lo cual complica realizar estas evaluaciones. Usamos una aplicación novedosa de los modelos de ocupación para analizar la presencia de la mitigación por conservación en tierras privadas. Comparamos diferentes formulaciones de los modelos de ocupación con un modelo de regresión logística para predecir las localidades de la mitigación por conservación con base en un marco de trabajo de un sistema socioecológico espacialmente explícito. Combinamos un experimento de simulación con un estudio de caso sobre datos de mitigación en Idaho y Montana (Estados Unidos) para ilustrar la utilidad del marco de trabajo de ocupación para el modelado de la conservación en tierras privadas. Los modelos de ocupación que consideraron explícitamente la variación en los reportes produjeron estimados de los predictores que estuvieron sustancialmente menos sesgados que los estimados producidos por la regresión logística bajo todas las condiciones simuladas. Los modelos de ocupación produjeron estimaciones para seis predictores que evaluamos en nuestro estudio de caso, los cuales fueron mayores en magnitud pero menos certeros que aquellos producidos por la regresión logística. Estos resultados sugieren que los modelos de ocupación tienen como resultado inferencias cualitativamente diferentes a la regresión logística con respecto a los efectos de los predictores sobre la presencia de mitigación por conservación y resaltan la importancia de la integración de los reportes variables e incompletos sobre la participación dentro del análisis empírico de las iniciativas de conservación. Si se falla en lo anterior se puede terminar enfatizando el factor social, institucional y ambiental equivocado que permite la conservación, además de subestimar las oportunidades de conservación en paisajes en donde las normas sociales o las restricciones institucionales inhiben el reporte de datos.

Potential greenhouse gas reductions from Natural Climate Solutions in Oregon, USA.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are causing global climate change and decreasing the stability of the climate system. Long-term solutions to climate change will require reduction in GHG emissions as well as the removal of large quantities of GHGs from the atmosphere. Natural climate solutions (NCS), i.e., changes in land management, ecosystem restoration, and avoided conversion of habitats, have substantial potential to meet global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and contribute to the global drawdown of GHGs. However, the relative role of NCS to contribute to GHG reduction at subnational scales is not well known. We examined the potential for 12 NCS activities on natural and working lands in Oregon, USA to reduce GHG emissions in the context of the state's climate mitigation goals. We evaluated three alternative scenarios wherein NCS implementation increased across the applicable private or public land base, depending on the activity, and estimated the annual GHG reduction in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) attributable to NCS from 2020 to 2050. We found that NCS within Oregon could contribute annual GHG emission reductions of 2.7 to 8.3 MMT CO2e by 2035 and 2.9 to 9.8 MMT CO2e by 2050. Changes in forest-based activities including deferred timber harvest, riparian reforestation, and replanting after wildfires contributed most to potential GHG reductions (76 to 94% of the overall annual reductions), followed by changes to agricultural management through no-till, cover crops, and nitrogen management (3 to 15% of overall annual reductions). GHG reduction benefits are relatively high per unit area for avoided conversion of forests (125-400 MT CO2e ha-1). However, the existing land use policy in Oregon limits the current geographic extent of active conversion of natural lands and thus, avoided conversions results in modest overall potential GHG reduction benefits (i.e., less than 5% of the overall annual reductions). Tidal wetland restoration, which has high per unit area carbon sequestration benefits (8.8 MT CO2e ha-1 yr-1), also has limited possible geographic extent resulting in low potential (< 1%) of state-level GHG reduction contributions. However, co-benefits such as improved habitat and water quality delivered by restoration NCS pathways are substantial. Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration to combat climate change will require actions across multiple sectors. We demonstrate that the adoption of alternative land management practices on working lands and avoided conversion and restoration of native habitats can achieve meaningful state-level GHG reductions.

Governing trade-offs in ecosystem services and disservices to achieve human-wildlife coexistence.

Sustaining wildlife populations, which provide both ecosystem services and disservices, represents a worldwide conservation challenge. The ecosystem services and Ostrom's social-ecological systems frameworks have been adopted across natural and social sciences to characterize benefits from nature. Despite their generalizability, individually they do not include explicit tools for addressing the sustainable management of many wildlife populations. For instance, Ostrom's framework does not specifically address competing perspectives on wildlife, whereas the ecosystem services framework provides a limited representation of the social and governance context wherein such competing perspectives are embedded. We developed a unified social-ecological framework of ecosystem disservices and services (SEEDS) that advances both frameworks by explicitly acknowledging the importance of competing wildlife perspectives embedded in the social and governance contexts. The SEEDS framework emulates the hierarchical structure of Ostrom's social-ecological systems, but adds subsystems reflecting heterogeneous stakeholder views and experiences of wildlife-based services and disservices. To facilitate operationalizing SEEDS and further broader analyses across human-wildlife systems, we devised a list of variables to describe SEEDS subsystems, such as types and level of services and disservices, cost and benefit sharing, and social participation of stakeholders. Steps to implement SEEDS involve engaging local communities and stakeholders to define the subsystems, analyze interactions and outcomes, and identify leverage points and actions to remedy unwanted outcomes. These steps connect SEEDS with other existing approaches in social-ecological research and can guide analyses across systems or within individual systems to provide new insights and management options for sustainable human-wildlife coexistence.

Control de las Compensaciones de los Servicios y Perjuicios Ambientales para Lograr la Coexistencia entre Humanos y Fauna Resumen El mantenimiento de las poblaciones silvestres de fauna, las cuales proporcionan servicios y perjuicios, representa un reto para la conservación a nivel mundial. Los servicios ambientales y los marcos de trabajo de los sistemas socio-ecológicos de Ostrom se han adoptado en la ciencias naturales y sociales para caracterizar los beneficios que proporciona la naturaleza. A pesar de ser generalizables, individualmente no incluyen herramientas explícitas para tratar el manejo sustentable de muchas poblaciones silvestres. Por ejemplo, el marco de trabajo de Ostrom no trata de manera específica las perspectivas rivales sobre fauna, mientras que el marco de trabajo de los servicios ambientales proporciona una representación limitada del contexto social y de gobierno en los que están embebidas dichas perspectivas rivales. Desarrollamos un marco de trabajo socio-ecológico unificado de servicios y perjuicios ambientales (SEEDS, en inglés) que impulsa ambos marcos de trabajo al reconocer explícitamente la importancia de las perspectivas rivales sobre fauna embebidas en los contextos sociales y de gobierno. El marco de trabajo SEEDS emula la estructura jerárquica de los sistemas socio-ecológicos de Ostrom, pero añade subsistemas que reflejan la visión y las experiencias heterogéneas que los accionistas tienen sobre los servicios y perjuicios basados en la fauna. Para facilitar la operación de los SEEDS y ampliar los análisis en todos los sistemas humano-fauna, diseñamos una lista de variables para describir los subsistemas de los SEEDS, como los tipos y niveles de los servicios y perjuicios, el costo y beneficio del reparto, y la participación social de los accionistas. Los pasos para implementar los SEEDS involucran comprometer a las comunidades locales y a los accionistas para que definan los subsistemas, analicen las interacciones y los resultados, e identifiquen los puntos y acciones de ventaja para remediar los resultados no deseados. Estos pasos conectan a los SEEDS con otras estrategias de investigación socio-ecológica y pueden guiar los análisis a través de varios sistemas o dentro de sistemas individuales para proporcionar nueva información y opciones de manejo para una coexistencia sustentable entre humanos y fauna.

Effects of bird community dynamics on the seasonal distribution of cultural ecosystem services.

Biodiversity-based cultural ecosystem services (CES), such as birdwatching, are strongly influenced by biotic community dynamics. However, CES models are largely static, relying on single estimates of species richness or land-use/land-cover proxies, and may be inadequate for landscape management of CES supply. Using bird survey data from the Appalachian Mountains (USA), we developed spatial-temporal models of five CES indicators (total bird species richness, and richness of migratory, infrequent, synanthrope, and resident species), reflecting variation in birdwatcher preferences. We analyzed seasonal shifts in birdwatching supply and how those shifts impacted public access to projected birdwatching hotspots. Landscape patterns of CES supply differed substantially among indicators, leading to opposing conclusions about locations of highest birdwatching supply. Total species richness hotspots seldom overlapped with hotspots of migratory or infrequent species. Public access to CES hotspots varied seasonally. Our study suggests that simple, static biodiversity metrics may overlook spatial dynamics important to CES users.

Species richness alone does not predict cultural ecosystem service value.

Many biodiversity-ecosystem services studies omit cultural ecosystem services (CES) or use species richness as a proxy and assume that more species confer greater CES value. We studied wildflower viewing, a key biodiversity-based CES in amenity-based landscapes, in Southern Appalachian Mountain forests and asked (i) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary with components of biodiversity, including species richness?; (ii) How do aesthetic preferences for wildflower communities vary across psychographic groups?; and (iii) How well does species richness perform as an indicator of CES value compared with revealed social preferences for wildflower communities? Public forest visitors (n = 293) were surveyed during the summer of 2015 and asked to choose among images of wildflower communities in which flower species richness, flower abundance, species evenness, color diversity, and presence of charismatic species had been digitally manipulated. Aesthetic preferences among images were unrelated to species richness but increased with more abundant flowers, greater species evenness, and greater color diversity. Aesthetic preferences were consistent across psychographic groups and unaffected by knowledge of local flora or value placed on wildflower viewing. When actual wildflower communities (n = 54) were ranked based on empirically measured flower species richness or wildflower viewing utility based on multinomial logit models of revealed preferences, rankings were broadly similar. However, designation of hotspots (CES values above the median) based on species richness alone missed 27% of wildflower viewing utility hotspots. Thus, conservation priorities for sustaining CES should incorporate social preferences and consider multiple dimensions of biodiversity that underpin CES supply.

Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology.

Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space-time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are "expanding", "shrinking", "speeding up" and "slowing down" ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.

Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land-use competition.

Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergy potential in complex landscapes, creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergy production can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural land conversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergy crop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass Panicum virgatum, giant miscanthus Miscanthus x giganteus, and hybrid poplar Populus x sp.) under current climate and climate change scenarios resulting from moderate and very high greenhouse gas emissions; (2) how maximum landscape yield, spatial allocation of crops, and bioenergy hotspots (areas with highest potential yield) varied among climate scenarios; and (3) how bioenergy hotspots overlapped with current crop production or lands with high development pressure. Under both climate change scenarios, mean annual yield of perennial grasses decreased (-4% to -39%), but yield of hybrid poplar increased (+8% to +20%) which suggests that a switch to woody crops would maximize bioenergy crop production. In total, maximum landscape yield increased by up to 90 000 Mg/yr (6%) in the 21st century due to increased poplar production. Bioenergy hotspots (> 18 Mg x ha(-1) x yr(-1)) consistently overlapped with high suburban/exurban development likelihood and existing row crop production. If bioenergy production is constrained to marginal (non-crop) lands, landscape yield decreased by 27%. The removal of lands with high development probability from crop production resulted in losses of up to 670 000 Mg/yr (40%). This study demonstrated that tradeoffs among bioenergy production, crop production, and exurban expansion in a mountainous changing rural landscape vary spatially with climate change over time. If markets develop, bioenergy crops could potentially counter losses of agricultural land to development.