Stress Control of Dike Deflection and Flank Eruption at Akaroa Volcano, New Zealand.

Understanding the stress evolution of extinct volcanoes can improve efforts to forecast flank eruptions on active systems. Field, petrographic, and seismic data are combined with numerical modeling to investigate the paleo-stress field of New Zealand's Akaroa Volcano, or Akaroa Volcanic Complex. Field mapping identifies 86 radially oriented dikes and seven lava domes found only within a narrow elevation range along Akaroa's erosional crater rim. These observations suggest that crater rim dike emplacement resulted from lateral deflection of vertically ascending intrusions from a centralized magma source, which in turn may have facilitated formation of the lava domes, as well as two scoria cones. We postulate that dike deflection occurred along a stress barrier, as neither a compositional change nor structural boundary are present. We use a finite element model (FEM) simulating Akaroa to test how different factors may have influenced the system's stress state and dike geometry. Elastic, non-flexural ("roller") model configurations containing a large, oblate, and shallow magma chamber produce stress barriers most conducive to radial dike emplacement along Akaroa's crater rim. These configurations also simulate rapid edifice construction above a preexisting lithospheric "bulge." Conversely, simulating flexural stresses exerted on the lithosphere by Akaroa's large mass hinder rather than promote radial dike emplacement. Temperature-dependent viscoelastic relaxation promotes gradual increases in stress barrier elevation, though this effect is strongly dependent on magma chamber parameters. These results suggest that Akaroa was constructed rapidly (within ∼100 kyr) prior to crater rim dike emplacement, which occurred throughout the volcano's remaining active lifespan.

Forecasting mechanical failure and the 26 June 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador.

Using recent advancements in high-performance computing data assimilation to combine satellite InSAR data with numerical models, the prolonged unrest of the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galápagos was tracked to provide a fortuitous, but successful, forecast 5 months in advance of the 26 June 2018 eruption. Subsequent numerical simulations reveal that the evolution of the stress state in the host rock surrounding the Sierra Negra magma system likely controlled eruption timing. While changes in magma reservoir pressure remained modest (<15 MPa), modeled widespread Mohr-Coulomb failure is coincident with the timing of the 26 June 2018 moment magnitude 5.4 earthquake and subsequent eruption. Coulomb stress transfer models suggest that the faulting event triggered the 2018 eruption by encouraging tensile failure along the northern portion of the caldera. These findings provide a critical framework for understanding Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and evaluating the potential and timing of future eruptions.

Triggering of eruptions at Axial Seamount, Juan de Fuca Ridge.

The submarine volcano Axial Seamount has exhibited an inflation predictable eruption cycle, which allowed for the successful forecast of its 2015 eruption. However, the exact triggering mechanism of its eruptions remains ambiguous. The inflation predictable eruption pattern suggests a magma reservoir pressure threshold at which eruptions occur, and as such, an overpressure eruption triggering mechanism. However, recent models of volcano unrest suggest that eruptions are triggered when conditions of critical stress are achieved in the host rock surrounding a magma reservoir. We test hypotheses of eruption triggering using 3-dimensional finite element models which track stress evolution and mechanical failure in the host rock surrounding the Axial magma reservoir. In addition, we provide an assessment of model sensitivity to various temperature and non-temperature-dependent rheologies and external tectonic stresses. In this way, we assess the contribution of these conditions to volcanic deformation, crustal stress evolution, and eruption forecasts. We conclude that model rheology significantly impacts the predicted timing of through-going failure and eruption. Models consistently predict eruption at a reservoir pressure threshold of 12-14 MPa regardless of assumed model rheology, lending support to the interpretation that eruptions at Axial Seamount are triggered by reservoir overpressurization.

Magma injection into a long-lived reservoir to explain geodetically measured uplift: Application to the 2007-2014 unrest episode at Laguna del Maule volcanic field, Chile.

Moving beyond the widely used kinematic models for the deformation sources, we present a new dynamic model to describe the process of injecting magma into an existing magma reservoir. To validate this model, we derive an analytical solution and compare its results to those calculated using the Finite Element Method. A Newtonian fluid characterized by its viscosity, density, and overpressure (relative to the lithostatic value) flows through a vertical conduit, intruding into a reservoir embedded in an elastic domain, leading to an increase in reservoir pressure and time-dependent surface deformation. We apply our injection model to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the ongoing unrest episode at Laguna del Maule (Chile) volcanic field that started in 2007. Using a grid search optimization, we minimize the misfit to the InSAR displacement data and vary the three parameters governing the analytical solution: the characteristic timescale τP for magma propagation, the maximum injection pressure, and the inflection time when the acceleration switches from positive to negative. For a spheroid with semimajor axis a = 6200 m, semiminor axis c = 100 m, located at a depth of 4.5 km in a purely elastic half-space, the best fit to the InSAR displacement data occurs for τP =9.5 years and an injection pressure rising up to 11.5 MPa for 2 years. The volume flow rate increased to 1.2 m3/s for 2 years and then decreased to 0.7 m3/s in 2014. In 7.3 years, at least 187 × 106 m3 of magma was injected.

Spreading rate dependence of gravity anomalies along oceanic transform faults.

Mid-ocean ridge morphology and crustal accretion are known to depend on the spreading rate of the ridge. Slow-spreading mid-ocean-ridge segments exhibit significant crustal thinning towards transform and non-transform offsets, which is thought to arise from a three-dimensional process of buoyant mantle upwelling and melt migration focused beneath the centres of ridge segments. In contrast, fast-spreading mid-ocean ridges are characterized by smaller, segment-scale variations in crustal thickness, which reflect more uniform mantle upwelling beneath the ridge axis. Here we present a systematic study of the residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly of 19 oceanic transform faults that reveals a strong correlation between gravity signature and spreading rate. Previous studies have shown that slow-slipping transform faults are marked by more positive gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments, but our analysis reveals that intermediate and fast-slipping transform faults exhibit more negative gravity anomalies than their adjacent ridge segments. This finding indicates that there is a mass deficit at intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults, which could reflect increased rock porosity, serpentinization of mantle peridotite, and/or crustal thickening. The most negative anomalies correspond to topographic highs flanking the transform faults, rather than to transform troughs (where deformation is probably focused and porosity and alteration are expected to be greatest), indicating that crustal thickening could be an important contributor to the negative gravity anomalies observed. This finding in turn suggests that three-dimensional magma accretion may occur near intermediate- and fast-slipping transform faults.