The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia.

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017-18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.

Health insurance and maternal, newborn services utilisation and under-five mortality.

BACKGROUND: Ghana's National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) was introduced in 2005 as a demand side intervention to remove financial barriers to accessing health services. After almost a decade of implementation, this study aims to investigate the association of NHIS membership with antenatal visits (ANC), postnatal visits (PNC) and under-five mortality, using data from the most recent Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). METHODS: The survey was nationally representative and used a two-stage sample design to produce separate estimates for key indicators for each of the ten regions in Ghana. A generalised linear model (GLM) with binomial-family logit-link was used to estimate the effect of NHIS membership on each of the MNCH service utilisation indicators, adjusting for relevant confounding factors. Using birth history data, the Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate the effect of NHIS membership on the incidence of under-five deaths, adjusted for wealth quintiles and other potential confounders. RESULTS: The results support the role of health insurance membership in improving access to maternal and child health services, including antenatal care (ANC4+ adjusted OR = 1.94; 95 % CI = [1.28, 2.95]; P < 0.01), and content of antenatal care (adjusted OR = 2.05; 95 % CI = (1.46, 2.90); P < 0.0001). However, the study failed to show evidence of association of NHIS membership and under-five mortality (adjusted hazard rate = 0.86; 95 % CI = [0.64, 1.14]; P = 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: National health insurance membership is associated with increased access to and utilisation of health care but not with under-five mortality.