Factors predicting persistence of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in women prospectively followed-up in three New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union.

BACKGROUND: We completed an analysis of the factors predicting the persistence of high risk (HR) HPV infections in women participating in a multicenter screening trial in three NIS countries. METHODS: The 543 baseline HR HPV-positive women included in this analysis are derived from a sub-cohort of 887 women who were prospectively followed-up for a mean of 21.6 months (range: 0.5-42.9) as a part of a multi-center screening study in three NIS countries (the NIS cohort study; n = 3,187 women). Of these 543 women, 273 showed persistent HR-HPV in serial Hybrid Capture II (HCII) testing during the follow-up (Group 1), whereas 270 women cleared their infection (Group 2). These two groups were compared with their epidemiological, clinical, and virological data (HCII, PCR) to disclose the factors predicting persistent HR-HPV infection. RESULTS: Women with persistent HR-HPV infections were significantly younger (27.3 yrs) than those who cleared their infection (29.1 yrs) (p = 0.006), and their follow-up time was shorter; 14.1 and 21 months, respectively (p = 0.0001). Both variables were treated as confounders in the multivariate analyses. Of the 66 recorded epidemiological variables, only being a current smoker proved to be an independent predictor (OR 1.693; 95% CI 1.114-2.573; p=0.014). Baseline colposcopy, biopsy or Pap smear did not predict HPV persistence, whereas an incident or persistent abnormal Pap during the follow-up were independent predictors in a multivariate model (p = 0.005), together with the high viral load (HCII RLU/CO at 100 pg/ml cut-off), and HR HPV positive PCR test (p = 0.0001). When all significant variables were entered in the regression model, only the follow-up time (OR 0.950, 95% CI 0.924-0.976; p = 0.0001) and HR-HPV positive PCR (OR 4.169, 95% CI 1.741-9.987; p = 0.001), remained independent predictors. CONCLUSIONS: While several factors were related to HR-HPV persistence in univariate analysis and when adjusted for age and follow-up time as confounders, the only independent predictors in the multivariate regression model were follow-up time and HR-HPV positive PCR. Clearly more data are needed on type-specific persistence and HPV integration as its predictors.

Clearance of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA and PAP smear abnormalities in a cohort of women subjected to HPV screening in the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union (the NIS cohort study).

BACKGROUND: We analysed the temporal relationships of the clearance of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA and cytological abnormalities in women participating in a screening study in three NIS countries. METHODS: The 274 patients included in this analysis were prospectively followed-up for 21.6 months (range: 0.5-42.9). All 274 women had abnormal PAP test (ASC-US or higher) and high-risk HPV-positive test (HCII) at baseline. Two groups were compared: 132 women who cleared both tests (Group 1), and 142 women who cleared either HPV or abnormal PAP test (Group 2). The first clearance during the follow-up, and the last visit clearance were modeled using life-table techniques, and the predictive factors were analysed using univariate (Kaplan-Meier) and multivariate (Cox) survival analysis. RESULTS: There was no difference in the mean clearance time for the abnormal PAP test (14.4 months; 0.7-40.5 and 12.6 months; 0.5-35.0) and high-risk HPV DNA (12.67 months; 0.6-33.5 and 10.8 months; 0.7-33.4) in Group 1 and Group 2 (Mann-Whitney: P = 0.107 and P = 0.082, respectively). Clearance times for HPV DNA and abnormal PAP test did not deviate from each other in either groups (Wilcoxon: P = 0.063 and P = 0.088). The monthly clearance rates for the abnormal PAP test are 1.32 and 1.38%, and those for the HPV DNA 1.62 and 1.61%, in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. Of the factors predicting the last visit clearance, the issues related to smoking are of particular interest. CONCLUSIONS: The clearance of high-risk HPV type and abnormal PAP test shows a close temporal relationship, the former preceding the latter, however, by an interval of 1.0-2.0 months.

Human papillomavirus testing with the hybrid capture 2 assay and PCR as screening tools.

The recognition of high-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) as etiological agents of cervical cancer has increased the demands to use testing for HPV for the detection of abnormal cervical smears and for cervical cancer screening. The present study compared the performance of the Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay with that of PCR for the detection of significant cervical lesions in 1,511 women with different risks for HPV infections in three New Independent States of the former Soviet Union. The results showed that the level of agreement between the HC2 assay and PCR was substantial, with a kappa (Cohen) value of 0.669 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.629 to 0.709). Of the 228 samples with discrepant results, 92 were positive by the HC2 assay but negative by PCR, whereas 136 samples were PCR positive but HC2 assay negative. The positive predictive values (PPVs) of the HC2 assay and PCR in detecting high-grade intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) were 4.5% (95% CI, 3.5 to 5.5%) and 3.6% (95% CI, 2.7 to 4.5%), respectively, and the negative predictive values (NPVs) were 99.6% (95% CI, 99.3 to 99.9%) and 99.3% (95% CI, 98.9 to 99.7%), respectively. The sensitivities of the HC2 assay and PCR for the detection of HSILs were 85.2 and 74.0%, respectively, and the specificities were 67.2 and 64.1%, respectively. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the performance of the HC2 assay for the detection of HSILs was excellent (P = 0.0001); the area under the ROC analysis curve was 0.858 (95% CI, 0.811 to 0.905), and the optimal balance between sensitivity (86.5%) and specificity (80%) was obtained with an HC2 assay cutoff level of 15.6 relative light units/positive control. Use of this cutoff would increase the specificity of the HC2 assay to 80.0% without compromising sensitivity. In conclusion, the results of PCR and the HC2 assay were concordant for 85% of samples, resulting in substantial reproducibility. Both tests had low PPVs, equal specificities, and equal (almost 100%) NPVs for the detection of HSILs; but the sensitivity of the HC2 assay was slightly better.