The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts: A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling.

Deterministic compartment models (CMs) and stochastic models, including stochastic CMs and agent-based models, are widely utilized in epidemic modeling. However, the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood. The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature. We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations. Based on this equivalence, we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment. The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics. However, it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs. Additionally, we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents. This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy. The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling. Furthermore, the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks. Overall, the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks Integrating Compartmental Model for Analyzing COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics.

Modelling and predicting the behaviour of infectious diseases is essential for early warning and evaluating the most effective interventions to prevent significant harm. Compartmental models produce a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that are renowned for simulating the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. However, the parameters in compartmental models are often unknown, and they can even change over time in the real world, making them difficult to determine. This study proposes an advanced artificial intelligence approach based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to estimate time-varying parameters from given data for the compartmental model. Our proposed PINNs method captures the complex dynamics of COVID-19 by integrating a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) compartmental model with deep neural networks. Specifically, we modelled the system of ODEs as one network and the time-varying parameters as another network to address significant unknown parameters and limited data. Such structure of the PINNs method is in line with the prior epidemiological correlations and comprises the mismatch between available data and network output and the residual of ODEs. The experimental findings on real-world reported data data have demonstrated that our method robustly and accurately learns the dynamics and forecasts future states. Moreover, as more data becomes available, our proposed PINNs method can be successfully extended to other regions and infectious diseases.

Retrospective Modeling of the Omicron Epidemic in Shanghai, China: Exploring the Timing and Performance of Control Measures.

BACKGROUND: In late February 2022, the Omicron epidemic swept through Shanghai, and the Shanghai government responded to it by adhering to a dynamic zero-COVID strategy. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai to explore the timing and performance of control measures based on the eventual size and duration of the outbreak. METHODS: We constructed an age-structured and vaccination-stratified SEPASHRD model by considering populations that had been detected or controlled before symptom onset. In addition, we retrospectively modeled the epidemic in Shanghai from 26 February 2022 to 31 May 2022 across four periods defined by events and interventions, on the basis of officially reported confirmed (58,084) and asymptomatic (591,346) cases. RESULTS: According to our model fitting, there were about 785,123 positive infections, of which about 57,585 positive infections were symptomatic infections. Our counterfactual assessment found that precise control by grid management was not so effective and that citywide static management was still needed. Universal and enforced control by citywide static management contained 87.65% and 96.29% of transmission opportunities, respectively. The number of daily new and cumulative infections could be significantly reduced if we implemented static management in advance. Moreover, if static management was implemented in the first 14 days of the epidemic, the number of daily new infections would be less than 10. CONCLUSIONS: The above research suggests that dynamic zeroing can only be achieved when strict prevention and control measures are implemented as early as possible. In addition, a lot of preparation is still needed if China wants to change its strategy in the future.

Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges.

Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.

A Large-Scale Genome-Wide Gene-Gene Interaction Study of Lung Cancer Susceptibility in Europeans With a Trans-Ethnic Validation in Asians.

INTRODUCTION: Although genome-wide association studies have been conducted to investigate genetic variation of lung tumorigenesis, little is known about gene-gene (G × G) interactions that may influence the risk of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: Leveraging a total of 445,221 European-descent participants from the International Lung Cancer Consortium OncoArray project, Transdisciplinary Research in Cancer of the Lung and UK Biobank, we performed a large-scale genome-wide G × G interaction study on European NSCLC risk by a series of analyses. First, we used BiForce to evaluate and rank more than 58 billion G × G interactions from 340,958 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Then, the top interactions were further tested by demographically adjusted logistic regression models. Finally, we used the selected interactions to build lung cancer screening models of NSCLC, separately, for never and ever smokers. RESULTS: With the Bonferroni correction, we identified eight statistically significant pairs of SNPs, which predominantly appeared in the 6p21.32 and 5p15.33 regions (e.g., rs521828C6orf10 and rs204999PRRT1, ORinteraction = 1.17, p = 6.57 × 10-13; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs2858859HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 1.17, p = 2.43 × 10-13; rs2858859HLA-DQA1 and rs9275572HLA-DQA2, ORinteraction = 1.15, p = 2.84 × 10-13; rs2853668TERT and rs62329694CLPTM1L, ORinteraction = 0.73, p = 2.70 × 10-13). Notably, even with much genetic heterogeneity across ethnicities, three pairs of SNPs in the 6p21.32 region identified from the European-ancestry population remained significant among an Asian population from the Nanjing Medical University Global Screening Array project (rs521828C6orf10 and rs204999PRRT1, ORinteraction = 1.13, p = 0.008; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs2858859HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 1.11, p = 5.23 × 10-4; rs3135369BTNL2 and rs9271300HLA-DQA1, ORinteraction = 0.89, p = 0.006). The interaction-empowered polygenetic risk score that integrated classical polygenetic risk score and G × G information score was remarkable in lung cancer risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: Important G × G interactions were identified and enriched in the 5p15.33 and 6p21.32 regions, which may enhance lung cancer screening models.

A two-phase comprehensive NSCLC prognostic study identifies lncRNAs with significant main effect and interaction.

Long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) are involved in regulating physiological behaviors for various malignant tumors, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, few studies comprehensively evaluated both lncRNA-lncRNA interaction effects and main effects of lncRNA on overall survival of NSCLC. Hence, we performed a two-phase designed study of lncRNA expression in tumor tissues using 604 NSCLC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas as the discovery phase and 839 patients from Gene Expression Omnibus as the validation phase. In the discovery phase, we adopted a two-step strategy, Screening before Testing, for dimension reduction and signal detection. These candidate lncRNAs first screened out by the weighted random forest (Ranger), were then tested through the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for covariates. Significant lncRNAs with either type of effects aforementioned were carried forward into the validation phase to confirm their significances again. As a result, in the discovery phase, 19 lncRNAs were identified by Ranger, among which five lncRNAs and one pair of lncRNA-lncRNA interaction exhibited significant effects (FDR-q ≤ 0.05) main and interaction effects on NSCLC survival, respectively, through Cox model. After the independent validation, we finally observed that one lncRNA (ENSG00000227403.1) with main effect was robustly associated with NSCLC prognosis (HRdiscovery = 0.90, P = 1.20 × 10-3; HRvalidation = 0.94, P = 4.11 × 10-3) and one pair of lncRNAs (ENSG00000267121.4 and ENSG00000272369.1) had significant interaction effect on NSCLC survival (HRdiscovery = 1.12, P = 3.07 × 10-4; HRvalidation = 1.11, P = 0.0397). Our comprehensive NSCLC prognostic study of lncRNA provided population-level evidence for further functional study.

Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year.

The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control measures by the government and the public's loosening of precautionary behaviors led to a sudden increase in cases, arousing deep concern across the globe. arousing deep concern across the globe. This study evaluates the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries and territories worldwide from January 2020 to February 2021. According to the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) of each country or territory, the results show that almost half of the countries and territories in the world have never controlled the epidemic. Among the countries and territories that had once contained the occurrence, nearly half failed to maintain their prevention and control, causing the COVID-19 pandemic to rebound across the world-resulting in even higher waves in half of the rebounding countries or territories. This work also proposes and uses a time-varying country-level transmission risk score (CTRS), which takes into account both R(t) and daily new cases, to demonstrate country-level or territory-level transmission potential and trends. Time-varying hierarchical clustering of time-varying CTRS values was used to successfully reveal the countries and territories that contributed to the recent aggravation of the global pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, and to identify countries and territories with an increasing risk of COVID-19 transmission in the near future. Furthermore, a regression analysis indicated that the introduction and relaxation of NPIs, including workplace closure policies and stay-at-home requirements, appear to be associated with recent global transmission changes. In conclusion, a systematic evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic over the past year indicates that the world is now in an unexpected situation, with limited lessons learned. Summarizing the lessons learned could help in designing effective public responses for constraining future waves of COVID-19 worldwide.

Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review.

The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters, explore and project the trends of the COVID-19, and assess the effects of intervention or control measures. We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies: epidemiological parameters estimation, trend prediction, and control measure evaluation. Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals, the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects. The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics.

Epigenetic-smoking interaction reveals histologically heterogeneous effects of TRIM27 DNA methylation on overall survival among early-stage NSCLC patients.

Tripartite motif containing 27 (TRIM27) is highly expressed in lung cancer, including non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we profiled DNA methylation of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) tumours from 613 early-stage NSCLC patients and evaluated associations between CpG methylation of TRIM27 and overall survival. Significant CpG probes were confirmed in 617 samples from The Cancer Genome Atlas. The methylation of the CpG probe cg05293407TRIM27 was significantly associated with overall survival in patients with LUSC (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.30-2.09, P = 4.52 × 10-5), but not in patients with LUAD (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.87-1.33, P = 0.493). As incidence of LUSC is associated with higher smoking intensity compared to LUAD, we investigated whether smoking intensity impacted on the prognostic effect of cg05293407TRIM27 methylation in NSCLC. LUSC patients had a higher average pack-year of smoking (37.49LUAD vs 54.79LUSC, P = 1.03 × 10-19) and included a higher proportion of current smokers than LUAD patients (28.24%LUAD vs 34.09%LUSC, P = 0.037). cg05293407TRIM27 was significantly associated with overall survival only in NSCLC patients with medium-high pack-year of smoking (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.26-1.96, P = 5.25 × 10-5). We conclude that cg05293407TRIM27 methylation is a potential predictor of LUSC prognosis, and smoking intensity may impact on its prognostic value across the various types of NSCLC.