Pre-vaccination screening strategies for the use of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine: A meeting report.

The first licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is efficacious in seropositive individuals, but increases the risk for severe dengue in seronegative persons about two years after administration of the first dose. For countries considering the introduction of Dengvaxia, WHO recommends a pre-vaccination screening strategy whereby only persons with evidence of a past dengue infection would be vaccinated. Policy-makers need to consider the risk-benefit of vaccination strategies based on such screening tests, the optimal age to introduce the vaccine, communication and implementation strategies. To address these questions, the Global Dengue and Aedes-transmitted diseases Consortium (GDAC) organized a 3-day workshop in January 2019 with country representatives from Asia and Latin America. The meeting discussions highlighted many challenges in introducing Dengvaxia, in terms of screening test characteristics, costs of such tests combined with a 3-dose schedule, logistics, achieving high coverage rates, vaccine confidence and communication; more challenges than for any other vaccine introduction programme. A screening test would require a high specificity to minimize individual risk, and at the same time high sensitivity to maximize individual and population benefit. The underlying seroprevalence dependent positive predictive value is the best indicator for an acceptable safety profile of a pre-vaccination screening strategy. The working groups discussed many possible implementation strategies. Addressing the bottlenecks in school-based vaccine introduction for Dengvaxia will also benefit other vaccines such as HPV and booster doses for tetanus and pertussis. Levels of public trust are highly variable and context specific, and understanding of population perceptions and concerns is essential to tailor interventions, monitor and mitigate risks.

Predictors of newborn systolic blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: Tracking of blood pressure from childhood to adulthood is well known. It is therefore important to determine predictors of blood pressure as early as at birth. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between maternal and neonatal factors on the blood pressure at birth of a group of Nigerian babies. METHODS: Consecutive full term neonates delivered in a tertiary centre in Nigeria were recruited for the study. Each newborn's systolic blood pressure (NSBP) was measured within the first four days of life. The mothers' weight, height, body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) were determined while the babies' weight and crown-heel length were measured as well. RESULTS: Four hundred and seventy-three mother/baby pairs were recruited for the study. The mean NSBP was 69.2 +/- 8.3 mmHG. The birth weight significantly correlated with NSBP,(r = 0.235, p = 0.0001). The NSBP rose an average of 3.61 mmHg per 0.5 kg increase in birth weight. The mean NSBP of babies of mothers with BMI <30 was significantly lower than in babies whose mothers had BMI>30, p=0.031. The mean NSBP of babies from low SES was significantly higher than middle or high SES groups p=0.022. CONCLUSION: The study shows that child birth weight is the most significant predictor of newborn systolic blood pressure.

Lack of association of dengue activity with haze.

Dengue activity depends on fluctuations in Aedes populations which in turn are known to be influenced by climate factors including temperature, humidity and rainfall. It has been hypothesized that haze may reduce dengue transmission. Due to its geographical location Singapore suffers almost every year from hazes caused by wildfires from Indonesia. Such hazes have a significant impact on pollution indexes in Singapore. We set out to study the relationship of dengue activity and haze (measured as pollution standard index) in Singapore, using ARIMA models. We ran different univariate models, each encompassing a different lag period for the effects of haze and temperature (from lag 0 to lag 12 weeks). We analysed the data on a natural logarithmic scale to stabilize the variance and improve the estimation. No association between dengue activity and haze was found. Our findings do not lend support to the hypothesis that haze is associated with reduced dengue activity in Singapore.

Epidemic dynamics revealed in dengue evolution.

Dengue is an emerging tropical disease infecting tens of millions of people annually. A febrile illness with potentially severe hemorrhagic manifestations, dengue is caused by mosquito-borne viruses (DENV-1 to -4) that are maintained in endemic transmission in large urban centers of the tropics with periodic epidemic cycles at 3- to 5-year intervals. Puerto Rico (PR), a major population center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly severe epidemics since multiple dengue serotypes were introduced beginning in the late 1970s. We document the phylodynamics of DENV-4 between 1981 and 1998, a period of dramatic ecological expansion during which evolutionary change also occurs. The timescale of viral evolution is sufficiently short that viral transmission dynamics can be elucidated from genetic diversity data. Specifically, by combining virus sequence data with confirmed case counts in PR over these two decades, we show that the pattern of cyclic epidemics is strongly correlated with coalescent estimates of effective population size that have been estimated from sampled virus sequences using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Thus, we show that the observed epidemiologic dynamics are correlated with similar fluctuations in diversity, including severe interepidemic reductions in genetic diversity compatible with population bottlenecks that may greatly impact DENV evolutionary dynamics. Mean effective population sizes based on genetic data appear to increase prior to isolation counts, suggesting a potential bias in the latter and justifying more active surveillance of DENV activity. Our analysis explicitly integrates epidemiologic and sequence data in a joint model that could be used to further explore transmission models of infectious disease.

West Nile Virus in the New World: trends in the spread and proliferation of West Nile Virus in the Western Hemisphere.

The observed patterns and variations in the ecology, epidemiology, distribution and prevalence of the West Nile Virus (WNV) in different areas of the Western Hemisphere make this pathogen of particular importance as a model for understanding the potential risk factors associated with emerging pathogens worldwide, particularly those involving zoonotic pathogens whose epidemiology involves the potential for vertical transmission in arthropod vector species, and horizontal and vertical transmission within and among vertebrate host species. Record numbers of human WNV cases were recorded in Canada during 2007, with >50% more cases than documented in any previous year. Although overall numbers of human infections recorded in the United States were not exceptionally high during 2007 relative to epidemic levels reported in 2002 and 2003, the state of Oklahoma reported that the highest-ever number of human WNV cases and the numbers of human cases recorded in Canada were 50% higher than previous record levels recorded in 2003. The record and near-record numbers of human WNV infections recorded in several regions of North America during 2007 have important implications for the future management and surveillance of WNV vectors and reservoirs in North America. The spatiotemporal distribution of WNV infections in humans and animals recorded during 2007 in North America and South America have important implications for the surveillance and management of public health threats from WNV in the Western Hemisphere. Serological surveys conducted in areas of intense WNV transmission in the United States have reported low prevalence of antibodies to WNV in human s populations, indicating that additional epidemic outbreaks of human disease from WNV can be expected in the future.

Vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases have been the scourge of man and animals since the beginning of time. Historically, these are the diseases that caused the great plagues such as the 'Black Death' in Europe in the 14th Century and the epidemics of yellow fever that plagued the development of the New World. Others, such as Nagana, contributed to the lack of development in Africa for many years. At the turn of the 20th Century, vector-borne diseases were among the most serious public and animal health problems in the world. For the most part, these diseases were controlled by the middle of the 20th Century through the application of knowledge about their natural history along with the judicious use of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and other residual insecticides to interrupt the transmission cycle between arthropod and vertebrate host. However, this success initiated a period of complacency in the 1960s and 1970s, which resulted in the redirection of resources away from prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. The 1970s was also a time in which there were major changes to public health policy. Global trends, combined with changes in animal husbandry, urbanisation, modern transportation and globalisation, have resulted in a global re-emergence of epidemic vector-borne diseases affecting both humans and animals over the past 30 years.

The changing epidemiology of yellow fever and dengue, 1900 to 2003: full circle?

Yellow fever and dengue are old diseases, having caused major epidemics in centuries past. Both were effectively controlled in the mid 1900s, yellow fever in Francophone Africa by vaccination and yellow fever and dengue in the Americas by effective control of the principal urban vector of both viruses, Aedes aegypti. In the last 25 years of the 20th century, however, there was a resurgence of yellow fever in Africa, and of dengue worldwide. The factors responsible for this resurgence are discussed, as are current options for prevention and control.

[Circulation of West Nile virus (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) and some other arboviruses in the ecosystems of Volga delta, Volga-Akhtuba flood-lands and adjoining arid regions (2000-2002)]. / Osobennosti tsirkuliatsii virusa Zapadnogo Nila (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) i nekotorykh drugikh arbovirusov v ékosistemakh del'ty Volgi, Volgo-Akhtubinskoi poimy i sopredel'nykh aridnykh landshaftakh (2000-2002 gg.).

Comprehensive virological, serological as well as genetic studies of the ecology of West Nile Virus (WNV) as well as of some other arboviruses were undertaken in different ecosystems in the territories of the Astrakhan Region and of the Kalmyk Republic. The main carriers (mosquitoes, ticks, birds and mammals) were defined as involved in the circulation of viruses within the natural and anthropogenic biocenosis. Phylogenetic examinations of isolated strains and samples, which were positive in RT-PCR, showed an absolute predominance of genotype I virus that was most closely related to American and Israeli strains. At the same time, epidemic strains had up to 6% of nucleotide differences versus the historic strains isolated in the same region 20-30 years ago. Besides, the circulation of genotype IV was discovered; it was characterized by a lower pathogenicity, which, possibly, ensures the shaping of a pronounced immune interlayer bearing no epidemic consequences. An analysis of the study results on the WNV ecology denotes the epicenter of the endemic territory located in the middle part of the Volga delta.

West Nile virus and other zoonotic viruses in Russia: examples of emerging-reemerging situations.

Studies of the interactions of vertebrates, viruses and arthropod vectors of these viruses were monitored in terms of different ecological groups of viruses transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks in Northern Eurasia in an area encompassing more than 15 million km2. About 90 viruses were isolated, including 24 new to science. Newly recognized infections of vertebrates, including humans, were described. Many unusual epidemic situations were analysed. Permanent efforts were established to prevent bioterrorist activities and their consequences. Extensive epidemic outbreaks of West Nile fever (WNF; i.e., fever caused by West Nile virus) and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) with unusual high mortality appeared in the last four years in southern Russia. We determined infection rates in humans, domestic and wild animals, mosquitoes and ticks from natural and synanthropic biocenoses [Editorial note: "synanthropic" means, roughly, all species living with (c.f. lice, fleas) or near people, such as in houses (c.f. house mice), parks (c.f. Rattus spp.), and the like, rather like "peridomestic", but not strictly so; "biocenosis" is the biome, the "totality of living populations in a particular habitat, which itself is only a part of the ecosystem".]. CCHF virus strains were phylogenetically similar to strains isolated in this area 35 years ago but different from Central-South-Asian and African strains. Before the outset of the current emergence of epidemic WNF, three genetic variants of this virus had been isolated in USSR, two African and one Indian. Phylogenetic analysis of complete genome sequences of epidemic strains demonstrated considerable similarity to strains from USA and Israel and differences from strains isolated in the same USSR areas 20-30 years before. In addition to strains of genotype 1, we isolated strains of second and third lineages and a strain of a fourth genetic variant. Nucleotide differences of these strains from all three genotypes was about 30%. The emerging WNF situation in Russia for the last 4 years probably has been the result of not only natural and social factors, but also to introduction of more virulent strains or by evolution of the virus.

[Analysis of new variants of West Nile fever virus]. / Analiz novykh variantov virusa likhoradki Zapadnogo Nila.

The complete nucleotide sequences for 6 strains of the West Nile fever virus were determined. For the first time the complete nucleotide sequences of the Indian isolate and Krsn190 strain, that is the most far phylogenetically from all isolates known at present time were established. The scheme for separation of virus variants into 4 groups and criteria for determination the group to which the isolate belongs are suggested.

Widespread West Nile virus activity, eastern United States, 2000.

In 1999, the U.S. West Nile (WN) virus epidemic was preceded by widespread reports of avian deaths. In 2000, ArboNET, a cooperative WN virus surveillance system, was implemented to monitor the sentinel epizootic that precedes human infection. This report summarizes 2000 surveillance data, documents widespread virus activity in 2000, and demonstrates the utility of monitoring virus activity in animals to identify human risk for infection.

West Nile encephalitis: an emerging disease in the United States.

In 1999, an epidemic of West Nile virus (WNV) encephalitis occurred in New York City (NYC) and 2 surrounding New York counties. Simultaneously, an epizootic among American crows and other bird species occurred in 4 states. Indigenous transmission of WNV had never been documented in the western hemisphere until this epidemic. In 2000, the epizootic expanded to 12 states and the District of Columbia, and the epidemic continued in NYC, 5 New Jersey counties, and 1 Connecticut county. In addition to these outbreaks, several large epidemics of WNV have occurred in other regions of the world where this disease was absent or rare >5 years ago. Many of the WNV strains isolated during recent outbreaks demonstrate an extremely high degree of homology that strongly suggests widespread circulation of potentially epidemic strains of WNV. The high rates of severe neurologic illness and death among humans, horses, and birds in these outbreaks are unprecedented and unexplained. We review the current status of WNV in the United States.

Sylvatic transmission of arboviruses among Bornean orangutans.

Wild populations of nonhuman primates live in regions of sylvatic arbovirus transmission. To assess the status of arbovirus transmission in Bornean forests and the susceptibility of wild orangutans to arboviral infection, blood samples of wild orangutans, semi-captive orangutans, and humans were examined. Samples were tested by plaque reduction neutralization test for antibodies to viruses representing three families (Flaviviridae, Alphaviridae, and Bunyaviridae), including dengue-2, Japanese encephalitis, Zika, Langat, Tembusu, Sindbis, Chikungunya, and Batai viruses. Both wild and semi-captive orangutan groups as well as local human populations showed serologic evidence of arbovirus infection. The presence of neutralizing antibodies among wild orangutans strongly suggests the existence of sylvatic cycles for dengue, Japanese encephalitis, and sindbis viruses in North Borneo. The present study demonstrates that orangutans are susceptible to arboviralinfections in the wild, although the impact of arboviral infections on this endangered ape remain unknown.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.