Cancers after Chornobyl: From Epidemiology to Molecular Quantification.

An overview and new data are presented from cancer studies of the most exposed groups of the population after the Chornobyl accident, performed at the National Research Center for Radiation Medicine (NRCRM). Incidence rates of solid cancers were analyzed for the 1990-2016 period in cleanup workers, evacuees, and the general population from the contaminated areas. In male cleanup workers, the significant increase in rates was demonstrated for cancers in total, leukemia, lymphoma, and thyroid cancer, as well as breast cancer rates were increased in females. Significantly elevated thyroid cancer incidence was identified in the male cleanup workers cohort (150,813) in 1986-2012 with an overall standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 3.35 (95% CI: 2.91-3.80). A slight decrease in incidence rates was registered starting at 25 years after exposure. In total, 32 of 57 deaths in a group of cleanup workers with confirmed acute radiation syndrome (ARS) or not confirmed ARS (ARS NC) were due to blood malignancies or cancer. Molecular studies in cohort members included gene expression and polymorphism, FISH, relative telomere length, immunophenotype, micronuclei test, histone H2AX, and TORCH infections. Analysis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cases from the cohort showed more frequent mutations in telomere maintenance pathway genes as compared with unexposed CLL patients.

Epidemiology of Late Health Effects in Ukrainian Chornobyl Cleanup Workers.

This article summarizes the results of 30 y of follow-up of cancer and noncancer effects in Ukrainian cleanup workers after the Chornobyl accident. The number of power plant employees and first responders with acute radiation syndrome under follow-up by the National Research Center for Radiation Medicine decreased from 179 in 1986-1991 to 105 in 2011-2015. Cancers and leukemia (19) and cardiovascular diseases (21) were the main causes of deaths among acute radiation syndrome survivors (54) during the postaccident period. Increased radiation risks of leukemia in the Ukrainian cohort of 110,645 cleanup workers exposed to low doses are comparable to those among survivors of the atomic bomb explosions in Japan in 1945. Additionally, an excess of chronic lymphocytic leukemia was demonstrated in the cleanup workers cohort for 26 y after the exposure. A significant excess of multiple myeloma incidence [standardized incidence rate (SIR) 1.61 %, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.21], thyroid cancer (SIR 4.18, 95% CI 3.76-4.59), female breast cancer (SIR 1.57 CI 1.40-1.73), and all cancers combined (SIR 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.09) was registered. High prevalence was demonstrated for cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and mental health changes. However, the reasons for the increases require further investigation. To monitor other possible late effects of radiation exposure in Chornobyl cleanup workers, analytical cohort and case-control studies need to include cardiovascular pathology, specifically types of potentially radiogenic cancers using a molecular epidemiology approach. Possible effects for further study include increased rates of thyroid, breast, and lung cancers and multiple myeloma; reduction of radiation risks of leukemia to population levels; and increased morbidity and mortality of cleanup workers from cardio- and cerebrovascular pathology.

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia in Chornobyl Cleanup Workers.

This paper describes the chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) incidence in a cohort of 110,645 (enlarged later to 152,520) male Ukrainian cleanup workers of the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident who were exposed to a range of radiation doses over the 1986-1990 time period. The standardized incidence rates are presented for a 27-y period after the exposure. For 2007-2012 period, the authors have identified the incident CLL cases in an enlarged cohort of 152,520 persons by linkage of the cohort file with the Ukrainian National Cancer Registry (NCRU). CLL data for the previous period (1987-2006) were identified in a frame of the Ukrainian-American leukemia study in the original cohort of 110,645 male clean-up workers. A significant CLL incidence excess was shown for the entire study period 1987-2012, with more prominent levels for the earliest years (1987-1996) when the standardized incidence rate (SIR) value was estimated to be 3.61 with 95% confidence interval from 2.32 to 4.91. In 2007-2012, the CLL incidence decreased substantially but still exceeded the national level although not significantly. In parallel, the several studies were performed at the National Research Center for Radiation Medicine (NRCRM) to explore if any clinical and cytogenetic features of CLL existed in the clean-up workers. The clinical study included 80 exposed and 70 unexposed CLL cases. Among the major clinical differences of the CLL course in the clean-up workers were a shorter period of white blood cells (WBC) doubling (10.7 vs. 18.0; p<0.001), frequent infectious episodes, lymphoadenopathy and hepatosplenomegaly (37 vs. 16), higher expression for CD38, and lower expression for ZAP-70 antigen.

Dosimetry Support of the Ukrainian-American Case-control Study of Leukemia and Related Disorders Among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers.

This paper describes dose reconstruction for a joint Ukrainian-American case-control study of leukemia that was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 male Ukrainian cleanup workers of the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident who were exposed to various radiation doses over the 1986-1990 time period. Individual bone-marrow doses due to external irradiation along with respective uncertainty distributions were calculated for 1,000 study subjects using the RADRUE method, which employed personal cleanup history data collected in the course of an interview with the subject himself if he was alive or with two proxies if he was deceased. The central estimates of the bone-marrow dose distributions range from 3.7 × 10(-5) to 3,260 mGy, with an arithmetic mean of 92 mGy. The uncertainties in the individual stochastic dose estimates can be approximated by lognormal distributions; the average geometric standard deviation is 2.0.

The Ukrainian-American study of leukemia and related disorders among Chornobyl cleanup workers from Ukraine: II. Estimation of bone marrow doses.

After the accident that took place on 26 April 1986 at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, hundreds of thousands of cleanup workers were involved in emergency measures and decontamination activities. In the framework of an epidemiological study of leukemia and other related blood diseases among Ukrainian cleanup workers, individual bone marrow doses have been estimated for 572 cases and controls. Because dose records were available for only about half of the study subjects, a time-and-motion method of dose reconstruction that would be applicable to all study subjects, whether dead or alive, was developed. The doses were calculated in a stochastic mode, thus providing estimates of uncertainties. The arithmetic mean individual bone marrow doses were found to range from 0.00004 to 3,300 mGy, with an average value of 87 mGy over the 572 study subjects. The uncertainties, characterized by the geometric standard deviation of the probability distribution of the individual dose, varied from subject to subject and had a median value of about 2. These results should be treated as preliminary; it is likely that the dose calculations and particularly the uncertainty estimates will be improved in the follow-up of this effort.

Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on.

26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.