Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing.

Background and objectives: Social and behavioral non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as mask-wearing, social distancing and travel restrictions, as well as diagnostic tests, have been broadly implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemiological models and data analysis affirm that wide adoption of NPIs helps to control the pandemic. However, SARS-CoV-2 has extensively demonstrated its ability to evolve. Therefore, it is crucial to examine how NPIs may affect the evolution of the virus. Such evolution could have important effects on the spread and impact of the pandemic. Methodology: We used evo-epidemiological models to examine the effect of NPIs and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2: attenuation and test evasion. Results: Our results show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce disease severity. Additionally, the timely application of NPIs could significantly affect the competition between viral strains, favoring the milder strain. Furthermore, a higher testing rate can select for a test-evasive viral strain, even if that strain is less infectious than the detectable competing strain. Importantly, if a less detectable strain evolves, epidemiological metrics such as confirmed daily cases may distort our assessment of the pandemic. Conclusions and implications: Our results highlight the important implications NPIs can have on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Lay Summary: We used evo-epidemiological models to examine the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing on two evolutionary trajectories for SARS-CoV-2: attenuation and test evasion. Our results show that when stronger measures are taken, selection may act to reduce disease severity.

Transgenerational inheritance of sexual attractiveness via small RNAs enhances evolvability in C. elegans.

It is unknown whether transient transgenerational epigenetic responses to environmental challenges affect the process of evolution, which typically unfolds over many generations. Here, we show that in C. elegans, inherited small RNAs control genetic variation by regulating the crucial decision of whether to self-fertilize or outcross. We found that under stressful temperatures, younger hermaphrodites secrete a male-attracting pheromone. Attractiveness transmits transgenerationally to unstressed progeny via heritable small RNAs and the Argonaute Heritable RNAi Deficient-1 (HRDE-1). We identified an endogenous small interfering RNA pathway, enriched in endo-siRNAs that target sperm genes, that transgenerationally regulates sexual attraction, male prevalence, and outcrossing rates. Multigenerational mating competition experiments and mathematical simulations revealed that over generations, animals that inherit attractiveness mate more and their alleles spread in the population. We propose that the sperm serves as a "stress-sensor" that, via small RNA inheritance, promotes outcrossing in challenging environments when increasing genetic variation is advantageous.

The evolution of paternal care: a role for microbes?

Paternal care, particularly in cases of uncertain paternity, carries significant costs. Extensive research, both theoretical and experimental, has explored the conditions in which paternal care behaviour would be favoured. Common explanations include an adjustment of care with uncertainty in paternity and limited accuracy in parentage assessment. Here, we propose a new explanation that microbes may play a role in the evolution of paternal care among their hosts. Using computational models, we demonstrate that microbes associated with increased paternal care could be favoured by natural selection. We find that microbe-induced paternal care could evolve under wider conditions than suggested by genetic models. Moreover, we show that microbe-induced paternal care is more likely to evolve when considering paternal care interactions that increase microbial transmission, such as feeding and grooming. Our results imply that factors affecting the composition of host microbiome may also alter paternal behaviour. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of the microbiome in host evolution'.