Global assessment of relationships between climate and tree growth.

Tree-ring records provide global high-resolution information on tree-species responses to global change, forest carbon and water dynamics, and past climate variability and extremes. The underlying assumption is a stationary (time-stable), quasi-linear relationship between tree growth and environment, which however conflicts with basic ecological and evolutionary theory. Indeed, our global assessment of the relevant tree-ring literature demonstrates non-stationarity in the majority of tested cases, not limited to specific proxies, environmental parameters, regions or species. Non-stationarity likely represents the general nature of the relationship between tree-growth proxies and environment. Studies assuming stationarity however score two times more citations influencing other fields of science and the science-policy interface. To reconcile ecological reality with the application of tree-ring proxies for climate or environmental estimates, we provide a clarification of the stationarity concept, propose a simple confidence framework for the re-evaluation of existing studies and recommend the use of a new statistical tool to detect non-stationarity in tree-ring proxies. Our contribution is meant to stimulate and facilitate discussion in light of our results to help increase confidence in tree-ring-based climate and environmental estimates for science, the public and policymakers.

Climate Regimes Override Micro-Site Effects on the Summer Temperature Signal of Scots Pine at Its Northern Distribution Limits.

Tree growth at northern boreal treelines is generally limited by summer temperature, hence tree rings serve as natural archives of past climatic conditions. However, there is increasing evidence that a changing summer climate as well as certain micro-site conditions can lead to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in trees growing in treeline environments. This phenomenon poses a challenge to all applications relying on stable temperature-growth relationships such as temperature reconstructions and dynamic vegetation models. We tested the effect of differing ecological and climatological conditions on the summer temperature signal of Scots pine at its northern distribution limits by analyzing twelve sites distributed along a 2200 km gradient from Finland to Western Siberia (Russia). Two frequently used proxies in dendroclimatology, ring width and maximum latewood density, were correlated with summer temperature for the period 1901-2013 separately for (i) dry vs. wet micro-sites and (ii) years with dry/warm vs. wet/cold climate regimes prevailing during the growing season. Differing climate regimes significantly affected the temperature signal of Scots pine at about half of our sites: While correlations were stronger in wet/cold than in dry/warm years at most sites located in Russia, differing climate regimes had only little effect at Finnish sites. Both tree-ring proxies were affected in a similar way. Interestingly, micro-site differences significantly affected absolute tree growth, but had only minor effects on the climatic signal at our sites. We conclude that, despite the treeline-proximal location, growth-limiting conditions seem to be exceeded in dry/warm years at most Russian sites, leading to a weakening or loss of the summer temperature signal in Scots pine here. With projected temperature increase, unstable summer temperature signals in Scots pine tree rings might become more frequent, possibly affecting dendroclimatological applications and related fields.