A systematic surveillance programme for infectious salmon anaemia virus supports its absence in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

In response to reported findings of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) in British Columbia (BC), Canada, in 2011, U.S. national, state and tribal fisheries managers and fish health specialists developed and implemented a collaborative ISAV surveillance plan for the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Accordingly, over a 3-1/2-year period, 4,962 salmonids were sampled and successfully tested by real-time reverse-transcription PCR. The sample set included multiple tissues from free-ranging Pacific salmonids from coastal regions of Alaska and Washington and farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) from Washington, all representing fish exposed to marine environments. The survey design targeted physiologically compromised or moribund animals more vulnerable to infection as well as species considered susceptible to ISAV. Samples were handled with a documented chain of custody and testing protocols, and criteria for interpretation of test results were defined in advance. All 4,962 completed tests were negative for ISAV RNA. Results of this surveillance effort provide sound evidence to support the absence of ISAV in represented populations of free-ranging and marine-farmed salmonids on the northwest coast of the United States.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia IVb status in the United States: inferences from surveillance activities and regional context.

The United States (U.S.) response to viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) IVb emergence in the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL) included risk-based surveillance for cost-effective decision support regarding the health of fish populations in open systems. All U.S. VHSV IVb isolations to date derive from free-ranging fish from GL States. Most originate in the region designated by US Geological Survey hydrologic unit code (HUC) 04, with the exception of two detections in neighboring Upper Mississippi (HUC 05) and Ohio (HUC 07) regions. For States outside the GL system, disease probability was assessed using multiple evidence sources. None substantiated VHSV IVb absence using surveillance alone, in part due to the limited temporal relevance of data in open systems. However, Bayesian odds risk-based analysis of surveillance and population context, coupled with exclusions where water temperatures likely preclude viral replication, achieved VHSV IVb freedom assurance for 14 non-GL States by the end of 2012, with partial evidence obtained for another 17 States. The non-GL region (defined as the aggregate of 4-digit HUCs located outside of GL States) met disease freedom targets for 2012 and is projected to maintain this status through 2016 without additional active surveillance. Projections hinge on continued basic biosecurity conditions such as movement restrictions and passive surveillance. Areas with navigable waterway connections to VHSV IVb-affected HUCs (and conducive water temperatures) should receive priority for resources in future surveillance or capacity building efforts. However, 6 years of absence of detections in non-GL States suggests that existing controls limit pathogen spread, and that even spread via natural pathways (e.g., water movement or migratory fish) appears contained to the Great Lakes system. This report exemplifies the cost-effective use of risk-based surveillance in decision support to assess and manage aquatic animal population health in open systems.

Integrating expert judgment in veterinary epidemiology: example guidance for disease freedom surveillance.

Expert opinions supplement empirical data in many epidemiologic assessments. For veterinary disease freedom surveillance, where the geographic scope of concern is often broad, populations subject to change, decisions eminent and empirical data, expert opinion can be a critical component of the decision making process. However, opinion is by definition subjective and the manner in which opinion is sought can impact the quality and reliability of estimates. Group interaction can hinder or improve the estimation process, depending on its facilitation. Further, whether and how validation is conducted can limit or increase acceptance of the resulting model. While the utility of expert opinion is widely recognized in many fields, and the impact of its use or misuse implicit, standards for application to veterinary assessments are not readily available. This paper aims to foster discussion on this influential component of epidemiology, with disease freedom application as a focus. Benefits and concerns attributed to expert judgment and guidelines for its structured elicitation are described, borrowing insights from its long history of use in decision science fields and examples from recent veterinary assessments.

Hydrographics and the timing of infectious salmon anemia outbreaks among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) farms in the Quoddy region of Maine, USA and New Brunswick, Canada.

Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) has caused severe morbidity and mortality in farmed Atlantic salmon in North America, Norway, Scotland and the Faroe Islands. The Quoddy region of Maine, United States of America (USA), and New Brunswick (NB), Canada is characterized by extensive tidal mixing and close proximity between farms. This region is also prone to recurrent appearances of ISA, though control measures limit disease spread and severity on infected farms. We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of the apparent impact of hydrographics on the incidence and timing of ISA outbreaks on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) farms in the Quoddy region from May 2002 to August 2004. A time-series cross-sectional regression of 32 farms over 28 months demonstrated a limited, but statistically significant, spatio-temporal clustering of ISA outbreaks linked hydrographically. New outbreaks correlated temporally with those occurring on-site 1 and 3 months prior, and those occurring within one tidal-excursion upstream the same month. Other risk factors included holdover of previous year-class fish, wharf sharing, and possibly harvests of cages infected in previous months. Conclusions suggest that tidal dispersion does play a role in ISAV transmission in the Quoddy region. Dispersal of free virus and/or tidal distribution of lice or other hydrographically influenced vectors or fomites could all contribute to the spatio-temporal patterns described.

Using expert opinion to identify risk factors important to infectious salmon-anemia (ISA) outbreaks on salmon farms in Maine, USA and New Brunswick, Canada.

Thirty industry or regulatory professionals, with extensive experience in the local infectious salmon-anemia (ISA) epidemic, were queried on their opinions regarding the spread and impact of ISA in Maine, USA and New Brunswick, Canada. Subjective probability-estimation techniques were used to elicit likelihood ratios (LR) for risk factors of potential relevance to the epidemic. Experts were asked to answer questions based on their direct and local experience with ISA, rather than through knowledge gained from scientific references or experience in other regions. The results found the strongest independent predictors of ISA infection to include (1) a site's proximity to other farms with clinically infected fish, (2) a previous history of ISA on the site, (3) whether a site fallows for a month or more between year classes and (4) whether the site employs harvest vessels practicing full containment of blood and stun water. The strongest predictors of ISA severity included (1) stocking density, (2) the length of time between infection and removal of infected fish, (3) whether fish are moved between pens (after infection) and (4) a farm's sea-lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) status. Experts believed that transmission of ISA virus during the local epidemic was influenced by proximity (spatial and temporal) to activities resulting in large-scale shedding of virus into a shared water column, and that severity of infection corresponded more to infected-fish removal practices and certain husbandry decisions. Personnel and equipment biosecurity measures were not seen as strong predictors of either infection or severity in this analysis, though their perceived level of importance was greater among government than industry experts.