Predicting short- to medium-term care home admission risk in older adults: a systematic review of externally validated models.

INTRODUCTION: Predicting risk of care home admission could identify older adults for early intervention to support independent living but require external validation in a different dataset before clinical use. We systematically reviewed external validations of care home admission risk prediction models in older adults. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library until 14 August 2023 for external validations of prediction models for care home admission risk in adults aged ≥65 years with up to 3 years of follow-up. We extracted and narratively synthesised data on study design, model characteristics, and model discrimination and calibration (accuracy of predictions). We assessed risk of bias and applicability using Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Five studies reporting validations of nine unique models were included. Model applicability was fair but risk of bias was mostly high due to not reporting model calibration. Morbidities were used as predictors in four models, most commonly neurological or psychiatric diseases. Physical function was also included in four models. For 1-year prediction, three of the six models had acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)/c statistic 0.70-0.79) and the remaining three had poor discrimination (AUC < 0.70). No model accounted for competing mortality risk. The only study examining model calibration (but ignoring competing mortality) concluded that it was excellent. CONCLUSIONS: The reporting of models was incomplete. Model discrimination was at best acceptable, and calibration was rarely examined (and ignored competing mortality risk when examined). There is a need to derive better models that account for competing mortality risk and report calibration as well as discrimination.

Participant characteristics and exclusion from phase 3/4 industry funded trials of chronic medical conditions: meta-analysis of individual participant level data.

Objectives: To assess whether age, sex, comorbidity count, and race and ethnic group are associated with the likelihood of trial participants not being enrolled in a trial for any reason (ie, screen failure). Design: Bayesian meta-analysis of individual participant level data. Setting: Industry funded phase 3/4 trials of chronic medical conditions. Participants: Participants were identified using individual participant level data to be in either the enrolled group or screen failure group. Data were available for 52 trials involving 72 178 screened individuals of whom 24 733 (34%) were excluded from the trial at the screening stage. Main outcome measures: For each trial, logistic regression models were constructed to assess likelihood of screen failure in people who had been invited to screening, and were regressed on age (per 10 year increment), sex (male v female), comorbidity count (per one additional comorbidity), and race or ethnic group. Trial level analyses were combined in Bayesian hierarchical models with pooling across condition. Results: In age and sex adjusted models across all trials, neither age nor sex was associated with increased odds of screen failure, although weak associations were detected after additionally adjusting for comorbidity (odds ratio of age, per 10 year increment was 1.02 (95% credibility interval 1.01 to 1.04) and male sex (0.95 (0.91 to 1.00)). Comorbidity count was weakly associated with screen failure, but in an unexpected direction (0.97 per additional comorbidity (0.94 to 1.00), adjusted for age and sex). People who self-reported as black seemed to be slightly more likely to fail screening than people reporting as white (1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)); a weak effect that seemed to persist after adjustment for age, sex, and comorbidity count (1.05 (0.98 to 1.12)). The between-trial heterogeneity was generally low, evidence of heterogeneity by sex was noted across conditions (variation in odds ratios on log scale of 0.01-0.13). Conclusions: Although the conclusions are limited by uncertainty about the completeness or accuracy of data collection among participants who were not randomised, we identified mostly weak associations with an increased likelihood of screen failure for age, sex, comorbidity count, and black race or ethnic group. Proportionate increases in screening these underserved populations may improve representation in trials. Trial registration number: PROSPERO CRD42018048202.

Psychotropic prescribing after hospital discharge in survivors of critical illness, a retrospective cohort study (2012-2019).

Background: Many people survive critical illness with the burden of new or worsened mental health issues and sleep disturbances. We examined the frequency of psychotropic prescribing after critical illness, comparing critical care to non-critical care hospitalised survivors, and whether this varied in important subgroups. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 23,340 critical care and 367,185 non-critical care hospitalised adults from 2012 through 2019 in Lothian, Scotland, who survived to discharge. Results: One-third of critical care survivors (32%; 7527/23,340) received a psychotropic prescription within 90 days after hospital discharge (25% antidepressants; 14% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 4% antipsychotics/mania medicines). In contrast, 15% (54,589/367,185) of non-critical care survivors received a psychotropic prescription (12% antidepressants; 5% anxiolytics/hypnotics; 2% antipsychotics/mania medicines). Among patients without psychotropic prescriptions within 180 days prior to hospitalisation, after hospital discharge, the critical care group had a higher incidence of psychotropic prescription (10.3%; 1610/15,609) compared with the non-critical care group (3.2%; 9743/307,429); unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 3.39, 95% CI: 3.22-3.57. After adjustment for potential confounders, the risk remained elevated (adjusted HR 2.03, 95% CI: 1.91-2.16), persisted later in follow-up (90-365 days; adjusted HR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.30-1.46), and was more pronounced in those without recorded comorbidities (adjusted HR 3.49, 95% CI: 3.22-3.78). Conclusions: Critical care survivors have a higher risk of receiving psychotropic prescriptions than hospitalised patients, with a significant proportion receiving benzodiazepines and other hypnotics. Future research should focus on the requirement for and safety of psychotropic medicines in survivors of critical illness, to help guide policy for clinical practice.

A mixed-methods evaluation of patients' views on primary care multi-disciplinary teams in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Expanding primary care multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs) was a key component of the 2018 Scottish GP contract, with over 4,700 MDT staff appointed since then. AIM: To explore patients' views on primary care MDT expansion in Scotland. DESIGN AND METHODS: (1) Survey of patients recently consulting a GP in deprived-urban, affluent-urban and remote/rural areas, assessing awareness of five MDT roles and attitudes towards receptionist signposting; (2) 30 individual interviews exploring MDT-care experiences. RESULTS: Of 1,053 survey respondents, most were unaware of the option of MDT rather than GP consultations for three out of five roles (69% unaware of link worker appointments; 68% mental health nurse; 58% pharmacist). Reception signposting was less popular in deprived-urban areas (34% unhappy vs 29% in remote/rural vs 21% affluent-urban; P<0.001), and in patients with multimorbidity (31% unhappy vs 24% in non-multimorbid; P<0.05).Two-thirds of interviewees had multimorbidity and almost all reported positive MDT-care experiences. However, MDT-care was generally seen as a supplement rather than a substitute for GP care. Around half of patients expressed concerns about reception signposting. These patients were more likely to also express concerns about GP access in general. Both of these concerns were more common in deprived-urban areas than in remote/rural or affluent-urban areas. CONCLUSION: MDT-care has expanded in Scotland with limited patient awareness. Although patients understand its potential value, many patients are unhappy with reception signposting to first-contact MDT care, especially those in deprived-urban areas living with multimorbidity. This represents a barrier to the aims of the new GP contract.

Multiple adverse outcomes associated with antipsychotic use in people with dementia: population based matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate risks of multiple adverse outcomes associated with use of antipsychotics in people with dementia. DESIGN: Population based matched cohort study. SETTING: Linked primary care, hospital and mortality data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), England. POPULATION: Adults (≥50 years) with a diagnosis of dementia between 1 January 1998 and 31 May 2018 (n=173 910, 63.0% women). Each new antipsychotic user (n=35 339, 62.5% women) was matched with up to 15 non-users using incidence density sampling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcomes were stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, ventricular arrhythmia, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, stratified by periods of antipsychotic use, with absolute risks calculated using cumulative incidence in antipsychotic users versus matched comparators. An unrelated (negative control) outcome of appendicitis and cholecystitis combined was also investigated to detect potential unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: Compared with non-use, any antipsychotic use was associated with increased risks of all outcomes, except ventricular arrhythmia. Current use (90 days after a prescription) was associated with elevated risks of pneumonia (hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10 to 2.28), acute kidney injury (1.72, 1.61 to 1.84), venous thromboembolism (1.62, 1.46 to 1.80), stroke (1.61, 1.52 to 1.71), fracture (1.43, 1.35 to 1.52), myocardial infarction (1.28, 1.15 to 1.42), and heart failure (1.27, 1.18 to 1.37). No increased risks were observed for the negative control outcome (appendicitis and cholecystitis). In the 90 days after drug initiation, the cumulative incidence of pneumonia among antipsychotic users was 4.48% (4.26% to 4.71%) versus 1.49% (1.45% to 1.53%) in the matched cohort of non-users (difference 2.99%, 95% CI 2.77% to 3.22%). CONCLUSIONS: Antipsychotic use compared with non-use in adults with dementia was associated with increased risks of stroke, venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction, heart failure, fracture, pneumonia, and acute kidney injury, but not ventricular arrhythmia. The range of adverse outcomes was wider than previously highlighted in regulatory alerts, with the highest risks soon after initiation of treatment.

Multimorbidity analysis with low condition counts: a robust Bayesian approach for small but important subgroups.

BACKGROUND: Robustly examining associations between long-term conditions may be important in identifying opportunities for intervention in multimorbidity but is challenging when evidence is limited. We have developed a Bayesian inference framework that is robust to sparse data and used it to quantify morbidity associations in the oldest old, a population with limited available data. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of a representative dataset of primary care patients in Scotland as of March 2007. We included 40 long-term conditions and studied their associations in 12,009 individuals aged 90 and older, stratified by sex (3039 men, 8970 women). We analysed associations obtained with Relative Risk (RR), a standard measure in the literature, and compared them with our proposed measure, Associations Beyond Chance (ABC). To enable a broad exploration of interactions between long-term conditions, we built networks of association and assessed differences in their analysis when associations are estimated by RR or ABC. FINDINGS: Our Bayesian framework was appropriately more cautious in attributing association when evidence is lacking, particularly in uncommon conditions. This caution in reporting association was also present in reporting differences in associations between sex and affected the aggregated measures of multimorbidity and network representations. INTERPRETATION: Incorporating uncertainty into multimorbidity research is crucial to avoid misleading findings when evidence is limited, a problem that particularly affects small but important subgroups. Our proposed framework improves the reliability of estimations of associations and, more in general, of research into disease mechanisms and multimorbidity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Frailty before and during austerity: A time series analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002-2018.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is characterised by a reduced resilience to adversity. In this analysis we examined changes in frailty in people aged 50+ before and during a period of austere public spending in England. METHODS: Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002-2018 were analysed. Associations between austerity and frailty were examined using (1) Multilevel interrupted times series analysis (ITSA); and (2) Accelerated longitudinal modelling comparing frailty trajectories in people of the same age in 2002 and 2012. RESULTS: The analysis included 16,410 people (mean age 67 years, 55% women), with mean frailty index score of 0.16. Mean scores in women (0.16) where higher than in men (mean 0.14), and higher in the poorest tertile (mean 0.20) than the richest (mean 0.12). In the ITSA, frailty index scores increased more quickly during austerity than before, with the additional increase in frailty 2012-2018 being similar in magnitude to the difference in mean frailty score between people aged 65-69 and 70-74 years. Steeper increases in frailty after 2012 were experienced across the wealth-spectrum and in both sexes but were greater in the very oldest (80+). In the accelerated longitudinal analysis, frailty was lower in 2012 than 2002, but increased more rapidly in the 2012 cohort compared to the 2002 cohort; markedly so in people aged 80+. CONCLUSION: The period of austerity politics was associated with steeper increases in frailty with age compared to the pre-austerity period, consistent with previously observed increases in mortality.

The implications of competing risks and direct treatment disutility in cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fracture: risk prediction and cost effectiveness analysis.

Background: Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates. Objectives: Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments. Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources: Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making). Results: CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk. Limitations: Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated. Conclusions: Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Before offering a medicine to prevent disease, prescribers must expect it to do more good than harm. This balance depends on how likely it is that the person will develop the disease we want to prevent. But people might first die for other reasons. We call this a 'competing risk'. In most cases, the mathematical tools we use to estimate the chance of developing a disease do not account for competing risks. Another problem is that, when weighing up the benefits and harms of medicines, we ignore the hassle they cause patients, even when they do not cause side effects. We used two examples: statins to prevent heart disease and bisphosphonates to prevent fractures. First, we assessed if existing tools get predictions wrong by not accounting for competing risks. We found that they exaggerate the chance of heart attacks and strokes. However, the exaggeration is greatest among people who would clearly benefit from preventative treatment. So it may not change treatment decisions much. The fracture prediction tool we studied was very inaccurate, exaggerating risk among older people, but underestimating risk among younger people. We made a new fracture risk prediction tool. It gave better predictions, but it was still inaccurate for people aged > 85 years and those with several health problems. Next, we asked people questions designed to put a number on the hassle that statins and bisphosphonates cause. Most people thought that taking either is inconvenient, but the hassle factor for bisphosphonates is bigger. Finally, we updated the mathematical models that the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence used when recommending statins and bisphosphonates. We worked out if competing risks and the hassle of taking medicines make a difference to results. Statins remain a good idea for almost everyone, unless they really hate the idea of taking them. But bisphosphonates would do more harm than good for anyone who agrees with the hassle factor we found.

Performance of models for predicting 1-year to 3-year mortality in older adults: a systematic review of externally validated models.

Mortality prediction models support identifying older adults with short life expectancy for whom clinical care might need modifications. We systematically reviewed external validations of mortality prediction models in older adults (ie, aged 65 years and older) with up to 3 years of follow-up. In March, 2023, we conducted a literature search resulting in 36 studies reporting 74 validations of 64 unique models. Model applicability was fair but validation risk of bias was mostly high, with 50 (68%) of 74 validations not reporting calibration. Morbidities (most commonly cardiovascular diseases) were used as predictors by 45 (70%) of 64 of models. For 1-year prediction, 31 (67%) of 46 models had acceptable discrimination, but only one had excellent performance. Models with more than 20 predictors were more likely to have acceptable discrimination (risk ratio [RR] vs <10 predictors 1·68, 95% CI 1·06-2·66), as were models including sex (RR 1·75, 95% CI 1·12-2·73) or predicting risk during comprehensive geriatric assessment (RR 1·86, 95% CI 1·12-3·07). Development and validation of better-performing mortality prediction models in older people are needed.

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on Scotland's care-homes from March 2020 to October 2021: national linked data cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care residents remains of wide interest, but most analyses focus on the initial wave of infections. OBJECTIVE: To examine change over time in: (i) The size, duration, classification and pattern of care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 and associated mortality and (ii) characteristics associated with an outbreak. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study using routinely-collected data. SETTING: All adult care-homes in Scotland (1,092 homes, 41,299 places). METHODS: Analysis was undertaken at care-home level, over three periods. Period (P)1 01/03/2020-31/08/2020; P2 01/09/2020-31/05/2021 and P3 01/06/2021-31/10/2021. Outcomes were the presence and characteristics of outbreaks and mortality within the care-home. Cluster analysis was used to compare the pattern of outbreaks. Logistic regression examined care-home characteristics associated with outbreaks. RESULTS: In total 296 (27.1%) care-homes had one outbreak, 220 (20.1%) had two, 91 (8.3%) had three, and 68 (6.2%) had four or more. There were 1,313 outbreaks involving residents: 431 outbreaks in P1, 559 in P2 and 323 in P3. The COVID-19 mortality rate per 1,000 beds fell from 45.8 in P1, to 29.3 in P2, and 3.5 in P3. Larger care-homes were much more likely to have an outbreak, but associations between size and outbreaks were weaker in later periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 mitigation measures appear to have been beneficial, although the impact on residents remained severe until early 2021. Care-home residents, staff, relatives and providers are critical groups for consideration and involvement in future pandemic planning.

Primary care transformation in Scotland: a qualitative evaluation of the views of patients.

BACKGROUND: The new Scottish GP contract introduced in April 2018 aims to improve quality of care through expansion of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) to enable GPs to spend more time as expert medical generalists with patients with complex needs. AIM: To explore patients' views on the changes in general practice in Scotland since the inception of the new contract. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study with 30 patients (10 living in urban deprived areas, 10 living in urban affluent/mixed urban areas, and 10 living in remote and rural areas). METHOD: In-depth semi-structured interviews with thematic analysis. RESULTS: Patients were generally unaware of the new GP contract, attributing recent changes in general practice to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ongoing concerns included access to GP consultations (especially face-to-face ones), short consultation length with GPs, and damage to continuity of care and the GP-patient relationship. Most patients spoke positively about consultations with MDT staff but still wanted to see a known GP for health concerns that they considered potentially serious. These issues were especially concerning for patients with multiple complex problems, particularly those from deprived areas. CONCLUSION: Following the introduction of the new Scottish GP contract, patients in this study's sample were accepting of first contact care from the MDT but still wanted continuity of care and longer face-to-face consultations with GPs. These findings suggest that the expert generalist role of the GP is not being adequately supported by the new contract, especially in deprived areas, though further quantitative research is required to confirm this.

A primary care research agenda for multiple long-term conditions: a Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), also known as multimorbidity, has been identified as a priority research topic globally. Research priorities from the perspectives of patients and research funders have been described. Although most care for MLTC is delivered in primary care, the priorities of academic primary care have not been identified. AIM: To identify and prioritise the academic primary care research agenda for MLTC. DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a three-phase study with primary care MLTC researchers from the UK and other high-income countries. METHOD: The study consisted of: an open-ended survey question, a face-to-face workshop to elaborate questions with researchers from the UK and Ireland, and a two-round Delphi consensus survey with international multimorbidity researchers. RESULTS: Twenty-five primary care researchers responded to the initial open-ended survey and generated 84 potential research questions. In the subsequent workshop discussion (n = 18 participants), this list was reduced to 31 questions. The longlist of 31 research questions was included in round 1 of the Delphi; 27 of the 50 (54%) round 1 invitees and 24 of the 27 (89%) round 2 invitees took part in the Delphi. Ten questions reached final consensus. These questions focused broadly on addressing the complexity of the patient group with development of new models of care for multimorbidity, and methods and data development. CONCLUSION: These high-priority research questions offer funders and researchers a basis on which to build future grant calls and research plans. Addressing complexity in this research is needed to inform improvements in systems of care and for disease prevention.

Delirium detection tools show varying completion rates and positive score rates when used at scale in routine practice in general hospital settings: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Multiple short delirium detection tools have been validated in research studies and implemented in routine care, but there has been little study of these tools in real-world conditions. This systematic review synthesized literature reporting completion rates and/or delirium positive score rates of detection tools in large clinical populations in general hospital settings. METHODS: PROSPERO (CRD42022385166). Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and gray literature were searched from 1980 to December 31, 2022. Included studies or audit reports used a validated delirium detection tool performed directly with the patient as part of routine care in large clinical populations (n ≥ 1000) within a general acute hospital setting. Narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two research studies and four audit reports were included. Tools used alone or in combination were the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), 4 'A's Test (4AT), Delirium Observation Screening Scale (DOSS), Brief CAM (bCAM), Nursing Delirium Screening Scale (NuDESC), and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC). Populations and settings varied and tools were used at different stages and frequencies in the patient journey, including on admission only; inpatient, daily or more frequently; on admission and as inpatient; inpatient post-operatively. Tool completion rates ranged from 19% to 100%. Admission positive score rates ranged from: CAM 8%-51%; 4AT 13%-20%. Inpatient positive score rates ranged from: CAM 2%-20%, DOSS 6%-42%, and NuDESC 5-13%. Postoperative positive score rates were 21% and 28% (4AT). All but two studies had moderate-high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review of delirium detection tool implementation in large acute patient populations found clinically important variability in tool completion rates, and in delirium positive score rates relative to expected delirium prevalence. This study highlights a need for greater reporting and analysis of relevant healthcare systems data. This is vital to advance understanding of effective delirium detection in routine care.

International Systematic Review of Utility Values Associated with Cardiovascular Disease and Reflections on Selecting Evidence for a UK Decision-Analytic Model.

PURPOSE: Evaluating interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires estimates of its effect on utility. We aimed to 1) systematically review utility estimates for CVDs published since 2013 and 2) critically appraise UK-relevant estimates and calculate corresponding baseline utility multipliers. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase (April 22, 2021) using CVD and utility terms. We screened results for primary studies reporting utility distributions for people with experience of heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or unstable angina. We extracted characteristics from studies included. For UK estimates based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension (EQ-5D) measure, we assessed risk of bias and applicability to a decision-analytic model, pooled arms/time points as appropriate, and estimated baseline utility multipliers using predicted utility for age- and sex- matched populations without CVD. We sought utility sources from directly applicable studies with low risk of bias, prioritizing plausibility of severity ordering in our base-case model and highest population ascertainment in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Most of the 403 studies identified used EQ-5D (n = 217) and most assessed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development populations (n = 262), although measures and countries varied widely. UK studies using EQ-5D (n = 29) produced very heterogeneous baseline utility multipliers for each type of CVD, precluding meta-analysis and implying different possible severity orderings. We could find sources that provided a plausible ordering of utilities while adequately representing health states. CONCLUSIONS: We cataloged international CVD utility estimates and calculated UK-relevant baseline utility multipliers. Modelers should consider unreported sources of heterogeneity, such as population differences, when selecting utility evidence from reviews. HIGHLIGHTS: Published systematic reviews have summarized estimates of utility associated with cardiovascular disease published up to 2013.We 1) reviewed utility estimates for 7 types of cardiovascular disease published since 2013, 2) critically appraised UK-relevant studies, and 3) estimated the effect of each cardiovascular disease on baseline utility.Our review 1) recommends a consistent and reliable set of baseline utility multipliers for 7 types of cardiovascular disease and 2) provides systematically identified reference information for researchers seeking utility evidence for their own context.

Patients' experiences of GP consultations following the introduction of the new GP contract in Scotland: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: The new Scottish GP contract commenced in April 2018 with a stated aim of mitigating health inequalities. AIM: To determine the health characteristics and experiences of patients consulting GPs in deprived urban (DU), affluent urban (AU), and remote and rural (RR) areas of Scotland. DESIGN AND SETTING: In 2022, a postal survey of a random sample of adult patients from 12 practices who had consulted a GP within the previous 30 days was undertaken. METHOD: Patient characteristics and consultation experiences in the three areas (DU, AU, RR) were evaluated using validated measures including the Consultation and Relational Empathy (CARE) Measure and Patient Enablement Instrument (PEI). RESULTS: In total, 1053 responses were received. In DU areas, multimorbidity was more common (78% versus 58% AU versus 68% RR, P<0.01), complex presentations (where the consultation addressed both psychosocial and physical problems) were more likely (16% versus 10% AU versus 11% RR, P<0.05), and more consultations were conducted by telephone (42% versus 31% AU versus 31% RR, P<0.01). Patients in DU areas reported lower satisfaction (82% DU completely, very, or fairly satisfied versus 90% AU versus 86% RR, P<0.01), lower perceived GP empathy (mean CARE score 38.9 versus 42.1 AU versus 40.1 RR, P<0.05), lower enablement (mean PEI score 2.6 versus 3.2 AU versus 2.8 RR, P<0.01), and less symptom improvement (P<0.01) than those in AU or RR areas. Face-to-face consultations were associated with significantly higher satisfaction, enablement, and perceived GP empathy than telephone consultations in RR areas (all P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Four years after the start of the new GP contract in Scotland, patients' experiences of GP consultations suggest that the inverse care law persists.

Primary care transformation in Scotland: a qualitative study of GPs' and multidisciplinary team members' views.

BACKGROUND: The Scottish Government's vision to transform primary care includes expansion of the primary care multidisciplinary team (MDT), formalised in the new GP contract in April 2018. AIM: To explore practitioners' views on the expansion of MDT working in Scotland. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study with GPs and a range of MDT staff working in three different population settings in Scotland. METHOD: In-depth semi-structured interviews were carried out by telephone with 8 GPs and 19 MDT staff between May and June 2022. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify commonalities and divergences in the interviews. RESULTS: Internal challenges facing MDT staff included adapting to the fast pace of primary care, building new relationships, training and professional development needs, line management issues, and monitoring and evaluation of performance. External challenges included the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, lack of time, difficulties with hybrid working, and low staff morale. Most GPs reported that expansion of their roles as expert medical specialists had not yet happened because their workload had not decreased (and in many cases had increased). In deprived areas, insufficient resources to deal with the high numbers of patients with complex multimorbidity remained a key issue. Interviewees in remote and rural settings felt the new contract did not take into account the unique challenges of providing primary care services in such areas, and recruitment and accommodation were cited as particular problems. CONCLUSION: Although there has been substantial expansion of the primary care MDT, which most GPs welcome, many challenges to effective implementation remain that must be addressed if transformation of primary care in Scotland is to become a reality.

FLAP: a framework for linking free-text addresses to the Ordnance Survey Unique Property Reference Number database.

Introduction: Linking free-text addresses to unique identifiers in a structural address database [the Ordnance Survey unique property reference number (UPRN) in the United Kingdom (UK)] is a necessary step for downstream geospatial analysis in many digital health systems, e.g., for identification of care home residents, understanding housing transitions in later life, and informing decision making on geographical health and social care resource distribution. However, there is a lack of open-source tools for this task with performance validated in a test data set. Methods: In this article, we propose a generalisable solution (A Framework for Linking free-text Addresses to Ordnance Survey UPRN database, FLAP) based on a machine learning-based matching classifier coupled with a fuzzy aligning algorithm for feature generation with better performance than existing tools. The framework is implemented in Python as an Open Source tool (available at Link). We tested the framework in a real-world scenario of linking individual's (n=771,588) addresses recorded as free text in the Community Health Index (CHI) of National Health Service (NHS) Tayside and NHS Fife to the Unique Property Reference Number database (UPRN DB). Results: We achieved an adjusted matching accuracy of 0.992 in a test data set randomly sampled (n=3,876) from NHS Tayside and NHS Fife CHI addresses. FLAP showed robustness against input variations including typographical errors, alternative formats, and partially incorrect information. It has also improved usability compared to existing solutions allowing the use of a customised threshold of matching confidence and selection of top n candidate records. The use of machine learning also provides better adaptability of the tool to new data and enables continuous improvement. Discussion: In conclusion, we have developed a framework, FLAP, for linking free-text UK addresses to the UPRN DB with good performance and usability in a real-world task.

Exploring the patient experience of remote hypertension management in Scotland during COVID-19: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to understand how patients experienced hypertension management, with or without blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring, during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, METHODS, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: This qualitative study conducted between April and November 2022 consisted of 43 semistructured telephone interviews (23 men and 20 women) from 6 primary care practices in one area of Scotland. RESULTS: From the views of 25 participants with experience of using the Connect Me telemonitoring service and 18 participants without such experience, 5 themes were developed. These were: (1) navigating access to services. There were challenges to gaining timely and/or in-person access to services and a reluctance to attend clinical settings because participants were aware of their increased risk of contracting the COVID-19 virus. (2) Adapting National Health Service services. All six practices had adapted care provision in response to potential COVID-19 transmission; however, these adaptations disrupted routine management of in-person primary care hypertension, diabetes and/or asthma checks. (3) Telemonitoring feedback. Telemonitoring reduced the need to attend in-person primary care practices and supported access to remote healthcare monitoring and feedback. (4) Self-management. Many non-telemonitoring participants were motivated to use self-management strategies to track their BP using home monitoring equipment. Also, participants were empowered to self-manage lifestyle and hypertension medication. (5) Experience of having COVID-19. Some participants contracting the COVID-19 virus experienced an immediate increase in their BP while a few experienced ongoing increased BP readings. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted routine in-person care for patients with hypertension. Both telemonitoring and some non-telemonitoring patients were motivated to self-manage hypertension, including self-adjusting medication; however, only those with access to telemonitoring had increased access to hypertension monitoring and feedback. BP telemonitoring permitted routine care to continue for participants in this study and may offer a service useful in pandemic proofing hypertension healthcare in the future.

Effectiveness of holistic assessment-based interventions for adults with multiple long-term conditions and frailty: an umbrella review of systematic reviews.

Holistic assessment-based interventions (HABIs) are effective in older people admitted to hospital, but it is unclear whether similar interventions are effective in adults with multiple long-term conditions or frailty in the community. We conducted an umbrella review to comprehensively evaluate the literature on HABIs for adults (aged ≥18 years) with multiple long-term conditions, and frailty. We searched eight databases for systematic reviews reporting on experimental or quasi-experimental studies. Of 9803 titles screened, we identified 29 eligible reviews (14 with meta-analysis) reporting on 14 types of HABIs. The evidence for the effectiveness of HABIs was largely inconsistent across different types of interventions, settings, and outcomes. We found evidence of no benefit from hospital HABIs on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and emergency department re-attendance, and evidence of no benefit from community HABIs on overall health-care utilisation rates, emergency department attendance, nursing home admissions, and mortality. The best evidence of effectiveness was for hospital comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) on nursing home admissions, keeping patients alive and in their own homes. There was some evidence of benefit from community CGA on hospital admissions, and from CGA spanning community and hospital settings on HRQoL. Patient-centred medical homes had beneficial effects on HRQoL, mental health, self-management, and hospital admissions.

Clustering long-term health conditions among 67728 people with multimorbidity using electronic health records in Scotland.

There is still limited understanding of how chronic conditions co-occur in patients with multimorbidity and what are the consequences for patients and the health care system. Most reported clusters of conditions have not considered the demographic characteristics of these patients during the clustering process. The study used data for all registered patients that were resident in Fife or Tayside, Scotland and aged 25 years or more on 1st January 2000 and who were followed up until 31st December 2018. We used linked demographic information, and secondary care electronic health records from 1st January 2000. Individuals with at least two of the 31 Elixhauser Comorbidity Index conditions were identified as having multimorbidity. Market basket analysis was used to cluster the conditions for the whole population and then repeatedly stratified by age, sex and deprivation. 318,235 individuals were included in the analysis, with 67,728 (21·3%) having multimorbidity. We identified five distinct clusters of conditions in the population with multimorbidity: alcohol misuse, cancer, obesity, renal failure, and heart failure. Clusters of long-term conditions differed by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation, with some clusters not present for specific strata and others including additional conditions. These findings highlight the importance of considering demographic factors during both clustering analysis and intervention planning for individuals with multiple long-term conditions. By taking these factors into account, the healthcare system may be better equipped to develop tailored interventions that address the needs of complex patients.