Using the R package popharvest to assess the sustainability of offtake in birds.

The R package popharvest was designed to help assess the sustainability of offtake in birds when only limited demographic information is available. In this article, we describe some basics of harvest theory and then discuss several considerations when using the different approaches in popharvest to assess whether observed harvests are unsustainable. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of distinguishing between the scientific and policy aspects of managing offtake. The principal product of popharvest is a sustainable harvest index (SHI), which can indicate whether the harvest is unsustainable but not the converse. SHI is estimated based on a simple, scalar model of logistic population growth, whose parameters may be estimated using limited knowledge of demography. Uncertainty in demography leads to a distribution of SHI values and it is the purview of the decision-maker to determine what amounts to an acceptable risk when failing to reject the null hypothesis of sustainability. The attitude toward risk, in turn, will likely depend on the decision-maker's objective(s) in managing offtake. The management objective as specified in popharvest is a social construct, informed by biology, but ultimately it is an expression of social values that usually vary among stakeholders. We therefore suggest that any standardization of criteria for management objectives in popharvest will necessarily be subjective and, thus, hard to defend in diverse decision-making situations. Because of its ease of use, diverse functionalities, and a minimal requirement of demographic information, we expect the use of popharvest to become widespread. Nonetheless, we suggest that while popharvest provides a useful platform for rapid assessments of sustainability, it cannot substitute for sufficient expertise and experience in harvest theory and management.

High vs low CPAP strategy with aerosolized calfactant in preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Optimal CPAP strategy to prevent CPAP failure defined as need for endotracheal intubation is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of CPAP failure in infants treated with high vs low CPAP strategy while receiving aerosolized calfactant in the AERO-02 clinical trial and AERO-03 expanded access program. METHODS: Infants born between 29 0/7 to 36 6/7 weeks were included. Comparisons were made between low and high CPAP groups (Low, 4-7 cm H2O; High, 8-10 cm H2O). RESULTS: CPAP failure and pneumothorax were not different between the groups. Odds of CPAP failure were not different after adjustment for baseline characteristics (OR = 0.61; 95% CI: 0.29, 1.24). CONCLUSION: We found no difference in CPAP failure among infants who received aerosolized calfactant that were treated with high vs low CPAP strategy. Efficacy of high CPAP strategy with aerosolized surfactant treatment needs to be evaluated in future studies.

Less invasive surfactant administration methods: Who, what and how.

Surfactant administration via an endotracheal tube (ETT) has been the standard of care for infants with respiratory distress syndrome for decades. As non-invasive ventilation has become commonplace in the NICU, methods for administering surfactant without use of an ETT have been developed. These methods include thin catheter techniques (LISA, MIST), aerosolization/ nebulization, and surfactant administration through laryngeal (LMA) or supraglottic airways (SALSA). This review will describe these methods and discuss considerations and implementation into clinical practice.

Reimagining the Path of an Unmatched Orthopaedic Residency Application: A Survey of Program Directors.

Background: Few evidence-based suggestions are available to help applicants and mentors improve reapplication outcomes. We sought to provide program directors' (PDs) perspectives on actionable steps to improve reapplicants' chances for a match. Methods: The PDs were asked to rank positions unmatched applicants can pursue, steps these applicants can take for the next application cycle, and reasons why reapplicants do not match. Results: Responses from 66 of 123 PDs were received (53.6% response rate). Obtaining new recommendation letters and rotating with orthopaedics were the highest 20 ranked steps unmatched applicants can take. No curriculum vitae (CV) improvement, poor interview, and poor letters of recommendation were the most important reasons hindering applicants from matching when reapplying. Conclusions: Steps reapplicants could prioritize include obtaining new recommendation letters, rotating in orthopaedics, and producing new research items. CV strengthening and improving interview skills address the 2 main reasons why unmatched applicants failed in subsequent attempts. Level of Evidence: Level IV.

Postoperative Chest X-Rays After Open Reduction Internal Fixation of Clavicle Fractures May Not Be Cost-Effective or Necessary.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the use of chest x-rays after open-reduction internal fixation of clavicle fractures. Particularly in detection of acute postoperative pneumothorax and cost-effectiveness of obtaining routine chest x-rays postoperatively. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Level I trauma center. PATIENTS: Two hundred thirty-six patients who underwent ORIF from 2013 to 2020 between the ages of 12 and 93. INTERVENTION: Chest x-ray performed postoperatively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT: Presence of acute postoperative pneumothorax. RESULTS: Of the 236 patients who underwent surgery, 189 (80%) patients received a CXR postoperatively and 7 (3%) patients experienced respiratory symptoms. All patients who had respiratory symptoms received a postoperative CXR. Those who did not receive a CXR postoperatively did not experience any respiratory complications. Two patients in the cohort had a postoperative pneumothorax, which was present preoperatively and unchanged in size postoperatively. Both of these patients were managed with general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation for surgery. The most common finding on CXR postoperatively was atelectasis. The cost of a portable CXR can be upward of $594 when including technology, personnel fees, and radiologic interpretation. CONCLUSION: Postoperative chest x-rays after clavicle open reduction and internal fixation did not detect any acute postoperative pneumothorax in asymptomatic patients. It is not cost-effective to routinely get chest x-rays in patients after open-reduction internal fixation of clavicle fractures. In our study, of the 189 chest x-rays performed, only 7 patients experienced postoperative respiratory symptoms. Our health care system as a total could have saved upward of $108,108 in total for these patients because they may have been considered nonreimbursable by an insurance provider. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic Level IV. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Short cephalomedullary nail toggle: a closer examination.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with wide femoral canals, an undersized short nail may not provide adequate stability, leading to toggling of the nail around the distal interlocking screw and subsequent loss of reduction. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors associated with nail toggle and to examine whether increased nail toggle is associated with increased varus collapse. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Level 1 and level 3 trauma center. PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS: Seventy-one patients with intertrochanteric femur fractures treated with short cephalomedullary nails (CMN) from October 2013 to December 2017. INTERVENTION: Short CMN. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Nail toggle and varus collapse were measured on intraoperative and final follow-up radiographs. Risk factors for nail toggle including demographics, fracture classification, quality of reduction, Dorr type, nail/canal diameter ratio, lag screw engaging the lateral cortex, and tip-apex distance (TAD) were recorded. RESULTS: On multivariate regression analysis, shorter TAD (P = .005) and smaller nail/canal ratio (P < .001) were associated with increased nail toggle. Seven patients (10%) sustained nail toggle >4 degrees. They had a smaller nail/canal ratio (0.54 vs 0.74, P < .001), more commonly Dorr C (57% vs 14%, P = .025), lower incidence of lag screw engaging the lateral cortex (29% vs 73%, P = .026), shorter TAD (13.4 mm vs 18.5 mm, P = .042), and greater varus collapse (6.2 degrees vs 1.3 degrees, P < .001) compared to patients with nail toggle < 4 degrees. CONCLUSIONS: Lower percentage nail fill of the canal and shorter TAD are risk factors for increased nail toggle in short CMNs. Increased nail toggle is associated with increased varus collapse.Level of evidence: Therapeutic Level III.

Age-specific survival rates, causes of death, and allowable take of golden eagles in the western United States.

In the United States, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act prohibits take of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) unless authorized by permit, and stipulates that all permitted take must be sustainable. Golden eagles are unintentionally killed in conjunction with many lawful activities (e.g., electrocution on power poles, collision with wind turbines). Managers who issue permits for incidental take of golden eagles must determine allowable take levels and manage permitted take accordingly. To aid managers in making these decisions in the western United States, we used an integrated population model to obtain estimates of golden eagle vital rates and population size, and then used those estimates in a prescribed take level (PTL) model to estimate the allowable take level. Estimated mean annual survival rates for golden eagles ranged from 0.70 (95% credible interval = 0.66-0.74) for first-year birds to 0.90 (0.88-0.91) for adults. Models suggested a high proportion of adult female golden eagles attempted to breed and breeding pairs fledged a mean of 0.53 (0.39-0.72) young annually. Population size in the coterminous western United States has averaged ~31,800 individuals for several decades, with λ = 1.0 (0.96-1.05). The PTL model estimated a median allowable take limit of ~2227 (708-4182) individuals annually given a management objective of maintaining a stable population. We estimate that take averaged 2572 out of 4373 (59%) deaths annually, based on a representative sample of transmitter-tagged golden eagles. For the subset of golden eagles that were recovered and a cause of death determined, anthropogenic mortality accounted for an average of 74% of deaths after their first year; leading forms of take over all age classes were shooting (~670 per year), collisions (~611), electrocutions (~506), and poisoning (~427). Although observed take overlapped the credible interval of our allowable take estimate and the population overall has been stable, our findings indicate that additional take, unless mitigated for, may not be sustainable. Our analysis demonstrates the utility of the joint application of integrated population and prescribed take level models to management of incidental take of a protected species.

Evaluation of a two-season banding program to estimate and model migratory bird survival.

The management of North American waterfowl is predicated on long-term, continental-scale banding implemented prior to the hunting season (i.e., July-September) and subsequent reporting of bands recovered by hunters. However, single-season banding and encounter operations have a number of characteristics that limit their application to estimating demographic rates and evaluating hypothesized limiting factors throughout the annual cycle. We designed and implemented a two-season banding program for American Black Ducks (Anas rubripes), Mallards (A. platyrhynchos), and hybrids in eastern North America to evaluate potential application to annual life cycle conservation and sport harvest management. We assessed model fit and compared estimates of annual survival among data types (i.e., pre-hunting season only [July-September], post-hunting season only [January-March], and two-season [pre- and post-hunting season]) to evaluate model assumptions and potential application to population modeling and management. There was generally high agreement between estimates of annual survival derived using two-season and pre-season only data for all age and sex cohorts. Estimates of annual survival derived from post-season banding data only were consistently higher for adult females and juveniles of both sexes. We found patterns of seasonal survival varied by species, age, and to a lesser extent, sex. Hunter recovered birds exhibited similar spatial distributions regardless of banding season suggesting banded samples were from the same population. In contrast, goodness-of-fit tests suggest this assumption was statistically violated in some regions and years. We conclude that estimates of seasonal and annual survival for Black Ducks and Mallards based on the two-season banding program are valid and accurate based on model fit statistics, similarity in survival estimates across data and models, and similarities in the distribution of recoveries. The two-season program provides greater precision and insight into the survival process and will improve the ability of researchers and managers to test competing hypotheses regarding population regulation resulting in more effective management.

Ending the HIV Epidemic: New York's Quest to Become the First State to Reduce HIV Prevalence.

In 2014, New York State became the first jurisdiction to launch a statewide initiative to end AIDS by reducing the number of persons living with HIV for the first time since effective HIV treatment became available. The Ending the Epidemic (ETE) initiative encompasses (1) identifying and linking undiagnosed persons with HIV to care, (2) retaining persons with HIV in care, and (3) facilitating access to preexposure prophylaxis for persons at risk for acquiring HIV. We used a framework for public health program implementation to describe key characteristics of the ETE initiative, present progress toward 13 ETE target metrics, and identify areas in need of increased programming. We provide evidence suggesting that New York State is on track to end AIDS as an epidemic by the end of 2020. As of 2017, 76% of progress toward our primary ETE target had been achieved. Substantial progress on several additional metrics critical to decreasing HIV prevalence and to improving the health of persons living with HIV had also been achieved. Lessons learned included the following: (1) ETE-based programming should be tailored to each jurisdiction's unique political and social climate, HIV epidemiology, fiscal resources, and network of HIV service providers; (2) key stakeholders should be involved in developing ETE metrics and setting targets; (3) performance-based measurement and timely communication to key stakeholders in real time are essential; and (4) examining trends in HIV prevention and care metrics is important for developing realistic ETE timelines.

Power Outage: An Ignored Risk Factor for COPD Exacerbations.

BACKGROUND: COPD is the third leading cause of death in the United States, with 16 million Americans currently experiencing difficulty with breathing. Power outages could be life-threatening for those relying on electricity. However, significant gaps remain in understanding the potential impact of power outages on COPD exacerbations. RESEARCH QUESTION: The goal of this study was to determine how power outages affect COPD exacerbations. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using distributed lag nonlinear models controlling for time-varying confounders, the hospitalization rate during a power outage was compared vs non-outage periods to determine the rate ratio (RR) for COPD and its subtypes at each of 0 to 6 lag days in New York State from 2001 to 2013. Stratified analyses were conducted according to sociodemographic characteristics, season, and clinical severity; changes were investigated in numerous critical medical indicators, including length of stay, hospital cost, the number of comorbidities, and therapeutic procedures between the two periods. RESULTS: The RR of COPD hospitalization following power outages ranged from 1.03 to 1.39 across lag days. The risk was strongest at lag0 and lag1 days and lasted significantly for 7 days. Associations were stronger for the subgroup with acute bronchitis (RR, 1.08-1.69) than for cases of acute exacerbation (RR, 1.03-1.40). Compared with non-outage periods, the outage period was observed to be $4.67 thousand greater in hospital cost and 1.38 greater in the number of comorbidities per case. The average cost (or number of comorbidities) was elevated in all groups stratified according to cost (or number of comorbidities). In contrast, changes in the average length of stay (-0.43 day) and the average number of therapeutic procedures (-0.09) were subtle. INTERPRETATION: Power outages were associated with a significantly elevated rate of COPD hospitalization, as well as greater costs and number of comorbidities. The average cost and number of comorbidities were elevated in all clinical severity groups.

Early data on long-term efficacy and safety of inotersen in patients with hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis: a 2-year update from the open-label extension of the NEURO-TTR trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hereditary transthyretin (hATTR) amyloidosis causes progressive polyneuropathy resulting from transthyretin (TTR) amyloid deposition throughout the body, including the peripheral nerves. The efficacy and safety of inotersen, an antisense oligonucleotide inhibitor of TTR protein production, were demonstrated in the pivotal NEURO-TTR study in patients with hATTR polyneuropathy. Here, the long-term efficacy and safety of inotersen are assessed in an ongoing open-label extension (OLE) study. METHODS: Patients who completed NEURO-TTR were eligible to enroll in the OLE (NCT02175004). Efficacy assessments included the modified Neuropathy Impairment Score plus seven neurophysiological tests composite score (mNIS + 7), the Norfolk Quality of Life - Diabetic Neuropathy (Norfolk QOL-DN) questionnaire total score and the Short-Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) Physical Component Summary (PCS) score. Safety and tolerability were also assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 97% (135/139) of patients who completed NEURO-TTR enrolled in the OLE. Patients who received inotersen for 39 cumulative months in NEURO-TTR and the OLE continued to show benefit; patients who switched from placebo to inotersen in the OLE demonstrated improvement or stabilization of neurological disease progression by mNIS + 7, Norfolk QOL-DN and SF-36 PCS. No new safety concerns were identified. There was no evidence of increased risk for grade 4 thrombocytopenia or severe renal events with increased duration of inotersen exposure. CONCLUSION: Inotersen slowed disease progression and reduced deterioration of quality of life in patients with hATTR polyneuropathy. Early treatment with inotersen resulted in greater long-term disease stabilization than delayed initiation. Routine platelet and renal safety monitoring were effective; no new safety signals were observed.

Detection probabilities of bird carcasses along sandy beaches and marsh edges in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

We estimated detection probabilities of bird carcasses along sandy beaches and in marsh edge habitats in the northern Gulf of Mexico to help inform models of bird mortality associated with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We also explored factors that may influence detection probability, such as carcass size, amount of scavenging, location on the beach, habitat type, and distance into the marsh. Detection probability for medium-sized carcasses (200-500 g) ranged from 0.82 (SE = 0.09) to 0.93 (SE = 0.04) along sandy beaches. Within sandy beaches, we found that intact/slightly scavenged carcasses were easier to detect than heavily scavenged ones and did not find strong effects of location on the beach on detection probability. We estimated detection rate for each combination of scavenging state, carcass size, and position along sandy beaches. In marsh edge habitats, detection ranged from 0.04 (SE = 0.04) to 0.86 (SE = 0.10), with detection rates rapidly increasing from small (< 200 g) to medium carcass sizes and leveling off between medium and extra-large (> 1000 g) carcasses regardless of vegetation type (Spartina or Phragmites). Carcasses of all sizes were generally harder to locate in Spartina-dominated marshes than in Phragmites-dominated ones. A subset of the data for which we could adequately assess the effect of distance into the marsh indicated that detection rates generally declined the farther a carcass was into marsh vegetation. Based on power analyses, our ability to identify predictors that influence detection rates would be higher with larger numbers of carcasses, greater numbers of search trials per carcass, or more balanced sampling distributions across predictor values.

Persistence of avian carcasses on sandy beaches and marsh edges in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

As part of the natural resource damage assessment for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a mathematical model was used to estimate the total number of bird carcasses deposited on shorelines based on the number of carcasses collected and adjustment factors such as detection probability and carcass persistence. Studies of carcass persistence occurred along sandy beaches and marsh edges in the northern Gulf of Mexico to obtain site-specific inputs for the model. We estimated persistence rates for these habitat types and evaluated the influence on persistence of carcass size, location of the carcass on the beach, dominant vegetation type in the marsh, carcass distance into marsh vegetation, and length of time a carcass was stranded on a shoreline. The length of time stranded had the greatest influence on persistence in both habitat types, with persistence initially relatively low and increasing logarithmically. Carcass size and position were weakly influential on sandy beaches. Carcass size had stronger influences along marsh edges, and marsh habitat type also affected persistence. We found evidence of a positive relationship between distance into the marsh and persistence during the first 24 h after carcass deployment.

The surveillance of four mosquito-borne diseases in international travelers arriving at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, China, 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: Little comprehensive analysis combining epidemiological and clinical data has been done with mosquito-borne diseases imported into Guangzhou by air travelers. METHODS: We screened international travelers (body temperature >36.5 °C) arriving at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, and recorded their epidemiological and clinical information. Whole-blood samples were collected for laboratory diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), zika virus (ZIKV) infections and malaria. RESULTS: Between March 1, 2016 and December 31, 2017, 155 (6.6%) cases (100 of DENV, 21 of CHIKV, 1 of ZIKV, 34 of malaria, including one co-infection of DENV and CHIKV) were identified among 2350 febrile travelers. DENV (90.0%) and CHIKV (100.0%) cases mainly came from Southern and Southeast Asia. Malaria cases (91.2%) mainly came from sub-Saharan Africa. Traveling abroad (28/74, 37.8%) and living/working abroad (11/22, 50.0%) were the most common causes of DENV infection and malaria for Chinese, respectively. Cases with these four mosquito-borne diseases were more likely to have nervous, musculoskeletal and skin symptoms and signs than other febrile diseases (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: It is important to strengthen the surveillance of mosquito-borne diseases among tourists and workers returning from Southeast Asia, Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, especially those with nervous, musculoskeletal and skin symptoms and signs.

Ankle Motion and Offloading in Short Leg Cast and Low and High Fracture Boots.

BACKGROUND: Short leg casts (SLCs) and fracture boots are used to treat foot and ankle injuries, but the decision to use one device over the other is often subjective. This study compared the impact of SLCs and low and high fracture boots on ankle motion and offloading. METHODS: Twenty healthy adults were prospectively studied. High-speed dynamic radiography was utilized to determine tibiotalar range of motion in the sagittal plane during nonweightbearing (NWB) and weightbearing (WB) gait in a shoe (control), SLC, and low and high fracture boots. Sensors captured peak plantar surface forces to determine ankle offloading. RESULTS: In NWB, the low fracture boot (2.2 ± 2.0 degrees), high fracture boot (2.3 ± 1.6 degrees), and SLC (2.3 ± 1.5 degrees) had significantly less motion compared with the control (3.6 ± 2.1 degrees; P ≤ .026). During WB, the SLC (3.4 ± 1.4 degrees) and high fracture boot (4.8 ± 2.0 degrees) had less motion compared with the low fracture boot (7.8 ± 3.4 degrees; P < .001). Finally, the SLC (172.6% ± 48.3% body weight [BW]) and low fracture (165.1% ± 36.2% BW) and high fracture (154.5% ± 32.9% BW) boots were associated with less peak plantar surface force compared with the control (195.0% ± 43.8% BW; P ≤ .087). CONCLUSION: The SLC and high fracture boot immobilized the ankle in NWB and offloaded and immobilized the ankle in WB. The low fracture boot also immobilized the ankle in NWB, but in WB, the low fracture boot only offloaded the ankle and did not immobilize it. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The low fracture boot may be more suited for NWB or possibly immobilizing the foot in WB.

Dengue Underestimation in Guangzhou, China: Evidence of Seroprevalence in Communities With No Reported Cases Before a Large Outbreak in 2014.

OBJECTIVE: Dengue has become a serious public health problem in southern China particularly with a record-breaking outbreak in 2014. Serological evidence from areas with no known dengue cases reported prior to 2014 could provide information on possible unrecognized circulation of dengue virus (DENV) before this outbreak. METHOD: Between March and May 2015, we performed a cross-sectional serosurvey using a stratified random sampling method among individuals aged 1-84 years-old in 7 communities in Guangzhou with no reported dengue cases before 2014. Sera of subjects were initially screened with the indirect DENV IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and positive samples were further tested by the indirect immunofluorescence assay to identify specific serotypes. RESULTS: A total of 850 subjects had complete information available. The overall seroprevalence against DENV was 6.59% (56 of 850; 95% CI, 4.92%-8.26%). The seroprevalence increased with age in general (3.86%, 4.58%, 8.72%, 7.22%, and 10.69% among participants in ≤14, 15-29, 30-44, 45-59 and ≥60 years age group, respectively). Living in rural or peri-urban communities and longer years of residence therein were risk factors for higher seroprevalence, whereas wearing long sleeves and pants when outdoors was associated with lower seroprevalence. Of the total subjects, 55.36% (31 of 56) sera were successfully identified with specific serotypes, with 12.90% (4 of 31) being coinfected with 2 serotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Dengue transmission in the study communities had occurred prior to the 2014 massive outbreak, possibly for many years, but went undiagnosed and unreported. A proportion of the study population experienced secondary infection as different serotypes of DENV increased the risk for severe diseases. Active surveillance and education of both healthcare providers and the general population should be conducted in areas at risk for dengue emergence in order to better reduce disease burden.

Clinical indices and mortality of hospitalized avian influenza A (H7N9) patients in Guangdong, China.

BACKGROUND: Six epidemic waves of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have emerged in China with high mortality. However, study on quantitative relationship between clinical indices in ill persons and H7N9 outcome (fatal and non-fatal) is still unclear. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect laboratory-confirmed cases with H7N9 viral infection from 2013 to 2015 in 23 hospitals across 13 cities in Guangdong Province, China. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression model and classification tree model analyses were used to detect the threshold of selected clinical indices and risk factors for H7N9 death. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and analyses were used to compare survival and death distributions and differences between indices. A total of 143 cases with 90 survivors and 53 deaths were investigated. RESULTS: Average age (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.036, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.016-1.057), interval days between dates of onset and confirmation (OR = 1.078, 95% CI = 1.004-1.157), interval days between onset and oseltamivir treatment (OR = 5.923, 95% CI = 1.877-18.687), body temperature (BT) (OR = 3.612, 95% CI = 1.914-6.815), white blood cell count (WBC) (OR = 1.212, 95% CI = 1.092-1.346) were significantly associated with H7N9 death after adjusting for confounders. The chance of death from H7N9 infection was 80.0% if BT was over 38.1 °C, and chance of death is 67.4% if WBC count was higher than 9.5 (10/L). Only 27.1% of patients who began oseltamivir treatment less than 9.5 days after disease onset died, compared to 68.8% of those who started treatment more than 15.5 days after onset. CONCLUSIONS: The intervals between date of onset and confirmation of diagnosis, between date of onset to oseltamivir treatment, age, BT and WBC are found to be the best predictors of H7N9 mortality.