Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of solid cancers - A prospective pooled multi-cohort register study.

Smoking, alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical inactivity are key lifestyle risk factors for cancer. Previously these have been mostly examined singly or combined as an index, assuming independent and equivalent effects to cancer risk. The aim of our study was to systematically examine the joint pairwise and interactive effects of these lifestyle factors on the risk of a first solid primary cancer in a multi-cohort prospective setting. We used pooled data from seven Finnish health survey studies during 1972-2015, with 197,551 participants diagnosed with 16,373 solid malignant primary tumors during follow-up. Incidence of any cancer was analyzed separately without and with lung cancers using Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. When excluding lung cancer, the highest risk of any cancer in men was observed for smokers with a BMI of ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.25-1.48) and in women for smokers consuming alcohol (HR 1.22, 1.14-1.30). No statistically significant interactions between any studied risk factor pairs were observed. When including lung cancer, the highest HRs among men were observed for smokers who consume alcohol (HR 1.72, 1.57-1.89) and among women for smokers who were physically inactive (HR 1.38, 1.27-1.49). Smoking combined with other lifestyle factors at any exposure level resulted in highest pairwise risks, both in men and women. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention, but also the importance of preventing obesity and reducing alcohol consumption.

Every tenth malignant solid tumor attributed to overweight and alcohol consumption: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown that some four in ten cancers are attributable to a few key risk factors. The aim of this study was to estimate cohort-based population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Finland for potentially modifiable cancer risk factors. METHODS: Data from eight health studies including 253,953 subjects with 29,802 incident malignant solid tumors were analysed using Bayesian multivariate regression model with multiplicative risk factor effects. We estimated the effects of smoking, excess body weight, alcohol consumption, physical activity, parity and education on cancer incidence and related PAFs by cancer site, accounting for competing mortality. RESULTS: PAF for all cancer sites and exposures combined was 34% (95% credible interval 29%-39%) in men and 24% (19%-28%) in women. In men, 23% (21%-27%) and in women 8% (6%-9%) of all cancers were attributed to smoking. PAF related to excess body weight was 4% (2%-6%) in men and 5% (2%-7%) in women, to alcohol 7% (3%-10%) in men and 4% (0%-7%) in women, and to excess body weight and alcohol combined 10% (6%-15%) in men and 9% (4%-13%) in women. CONCLUSION: Smoking was the most important factor contributing to cancer burden in Finnish men and women over the last 40 years. The contribution of excess body weight and alcohol consumption together outweighed the role of smoking in women. As the prevalence of overweight is expected to increase, more efficient public health measures supporting adherence to healthy weight are essential to reduce cancer burden.

Associations of EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet or Finnish Nutrition Recommendations with changes in obesity measures: a follow-up study in adults.

Background: Knowledge on the association between the EAT-Lancet Planetary Health Diet (PHD) or the Finnish Nutrition recommendations (FNR) and anthropometric changes is scarce. Especially, the role of the overall diet quality, distinct from energy intake, on weight changes needs further examination. Objectives: To examine the association between diet quality and weight change indicators and to develop a dietary index based on the PHD adapted for the Finnish food culture. Methods: The study population consisted of participants of two Finnish population-based studies (n = 4,371, 56% of women, aged 30-74 years at baseline). Dietary habits at the baseline were assessed with a validated food frequency questionnaire including 128-130 food items. We developed a Planetary Health Diet Score (PHDS) (including 13 components) and updated the pre-existing Recommended Finnish Diet Score (uRFDS) (including nine components) with energy density values to measure overall diet quality. Weight, height, and waist circumference (WC), and the body mass index (BMI) were measured at the baseline and follow-up, and their percentual changes during a 7-year follow-up were calculated. Two-staged random effects linear regression was used to evaluate ß-estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Adherence to both indices was relatively low (PHDS: mean 3.6 points (standard deviation [SD] 1.2) in the range of 0-13; uRFDS: mean 12.7 points (SD 3.9) in the range of 0-27). We did not find statistically significant associations between either of the dietary indices and anthropometric changes during the follow-up (PHDS, weight: ß -0.04 (95% CI -0.19, 0.11), BMI: ß 0.05 (-0.20, 0.10), WC: ß -0.08 (-0.22, 0.06); uRFDS, weight: ß 0.01 (-0.04, 0.06), BMI: ß 0.01 (-0.04, 0.06), WC: ß -0.02 (-0.07, 0.03)). Conclusion: No associations between overall diet quality and anthropometric changes were found, which may be at least partly explained by low adherence to the PHD and the FNR in the Finnish adult population.

Concordance of shoulder symptoms and imaging findings: a protocol for the Finnish Imaging of Shoulder (FIMAGE) study.

INTRODUCTION: Shoulder pain is a substantial medical and socioeconomic problem in most societies, affecting the ability to work or carry out leisure time activities as well as subsequently influencing physical and psychological well-being. According to a nationwide survey in Finland, 27% of the population reported shoulder pain within the last 30 days. In clinical practice, imaging findings of structural abnormalities are typically thought to explain symptoms, even though such findings are also prevalent in asymptomatic individuals, particularly with increasing age. Overall, there is a paucity of high-quality evidence on the prevalence, clinical relevance and prognosis of 'abnormal' imaging findings of the shoulder.The aim of the Finnish Imaging of Shoulder (FIMAGE) study is fourfold: to assess (1) the prevalence of shoulder symptoms and the most common anatomical variants and imaging abnormalities of the shoulder; (2) the concordance between shoulder symptoms, function and imaging abnormalities; (3) the most important determinants of symptoms, function and imaging abnormalities; and (4) the course of shoulder complaints over 5 years. METHODS: The FIMAGE target population of 600 participants, aged 40-75 years, will be randomly selected from a nationally representative general population sample of 9922 individuals originally recruited for the Finnish Health 2000 Survey. On giving informed consent, the participants will be invited to a clinical visit that includes assessment of general health, shoulder symptoms, bilateral shoulder examination and imaging of both shoulders with plain radiography and MRI. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District. The findings will be published according to the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology criteria. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05641415.

Underreporting of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Finland-Bayesian inference based on a series of serological surveys.

In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data on antibody development, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. During the entire first wave, there were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%-1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the adult population in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.

A Nationally Representative Study of the Hardening Hypothesis Among Educational Groups Over Four Decades.

INTRODUCTION: As smoking prevalence has decreased, there has been debate about "hardening" (smokers are more resistant to established tobacco control measures) or "softening" (smokers are more responsive to interventions) of the remaining smoking population. Despite growing evidence to reject the "hardening" hypothesis, there is lack of long-term population-based studies to test this hypothesis by educational level. AIMS AND METHODS: Repeated cross-sectional population-based surveys during 1978-2014 and in 2018 were utilized. The target population consisted of ~5000 25-64-year-old Finns annually. The data included 109 257 respondents of which 53 351 ever-smoking individuals were included in the analyses. Response rates varied between 84% and 43%. Five hardening indicators considering smoking frequency, intensity and smoking cessation were used as the dependent variables. The main independent variable was study year (time). Statistical analyses were based on regression models using restricted cubic splines by educational level. RESULTS: Contrary to the hardening hypothesis, hardening indicators showed softening over time among all educational groups. However, educational groups differed from each other. Compared with the highly educated, the quit ratio was lower, number of cigarettes per day (CPD) was higher, the proportions of daily smokers among current smokers and heavy smokers among daily smokers were higher among the less educated. CONCLUSIONS: In accordance with growing evidence, also the Finnish smoking population has "softened" over time. Although the change has been predominantly in the same direction for all educational groups, the rate of change has been stronger among the highly educated, highlighting the continued burden of smoking among the less educated. IMPLICATIONS: Even though "softening" of smoking has occurred, lighter smoking also poses health risks. Therefore, tobacco control policies and cessation services should be developed and targeted to a greater extent also for people who smoke less than daily and for those who smoke fewer CPD. Furthermore, interventions should focus on special requirements of the lower educational groups to promote health equity.

Partial substitution of red or processed meat with plant-based foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes.

High consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. These kinds of diets are also environmentally unsustainable. We examined a modeled association between a partial substitution of red meat or processed meat with plant-based foods (legumes, vegetables, fruit, cereals, or a combination of these) and T2D risk among Finnish adults. We used pooled data from five Finnish cohorts (n = 41,662, 22% women, aged ≥ 25 years, 10.9 years median follow-up with 1750 incident T2D cases). Diet was assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire. In the substitution models, 100 g/week of red meat or 50 g/week of processed meat were substituted with similar amounts of plant-based substitutes. Cohort-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards multivariable model and pooled using a two-staged random-effects model. We observed small, but statistically significant, reductions in T2D risk in men when red or processed meat were partially substituted with fruits (red meat: HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00, P = 0.049, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.005), cereals (red meat: 0.97, 0.95-0.99, P = 0.005, processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) or combination of plant-based foods (only processed meat: 0.99, 0.98-1.00, P = 0.004) but not with legumes or vegetables. The findings of women were similar but not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that even small, easily implemented, shifts towards more sustainable diets may reduce T2D risk particularly in men.

Genetic background to attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder symptoms at the age of 5 years: the role of sleep duration.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: We studied the associations between polygenic risk score (PRS) for attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and (1) ADHD symptoms in 5-year-old children, (2) sleep duration throughout childhood, and (3) the interaction between PRS for ADHD and short sleep duration relative to ADHD symptoms at 5 years. METHODS: This study is based on the population-based CHILD-SLEEP birth cohort (N = 1420 children). PRS was used to quantitate the genetic risk for ADHD. Parent-reported ADHD symptoms at 5 years were obtained from 714 children, using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Five-to-Fifteen (FTF). Our primary outcomes were SDQ-hyperactivity and FTF-ADHD total scores. Parent-reported sleep duration was measured at 3, 8, 18, 24 months, and 5 years in the whole sample and actigraphy-based sleep duration at 2 and 24 months in a subsample. RESULTS: PRS for ADHD associated with SDQ-hyperactivity (ß = 0.214, p = .012) and FTF-ADHD total (ß = 0.639, p = .011), and FTF-inattention and hyperactivity subscale scores (ß = 0.315, p = .017 and ß = 0.324, p = .030), but not with sleep duration at any time point. Significant interactions were found between high PRS for ADHD and parent-reported short sleep throughout childhood in FTF-ADHD total score (F = 4.28, p = .039) and FTF-inattention subscale (F = 4.66, p = .031). We did not find any significant interaction between high PRS for ADHD and actigraphy-based short sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Parent-reported short sleep moderates the association between genetic risk of ADHD and ADHD symptoms in early childhood in the general population, so that children with short sleep, in combination with high genetic risk for ADHD, could be at highest risk for ADHD symptoms.

Clinical outcomes of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination in four Nordic countries: population based cohort study.

Objective: To investigate the clinical outcomes of myocarditis associated with mRNA vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus compared with other types of myocarditis. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Nationwide register data from four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), from 1 January 2018 to the latest date of follow-up in 2022. Participants: The Nordic myocarditis cohort; 7292 individuals aged ≥12 years who had an incident diagnosis of myocarditis as a main or secondary diagnosis, in a population of 23 million individuals in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Main outcome measures: Heart failure, or death from any cause within 90 days of admission to hospital for new onset myocarditis, and hospital readmission within 90 days of discharge to hospital for new onset myocarditis. Clinical outcomes of myocarditis associated with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, covid-19 disease, and conventional myocarditis were compared. Results: In 2018-22, 7292 patients were admitted to hospital with new onset myocarditis, with 530 (7.3%) categorised as having myocarditis associated with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, 109 (1.5%) with myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease, and 6653 (91.2%) with conventional myocarditis. At the 90 day follow-up, 62, nine, and 988 patients had been readmitted to hospital in each group (vaccination, covid-19, and conventional myocarditis groups, respectively), corresponding to a relative risk of readmission of 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.00) and 0.55 (0.30 to 1.04) for the vaccination type and covid-19 type myocarditis groups, respectively, compared with the conventional myocarditis group. At the 90 day follow-up, 27, 18, and 616 patients had a diagnosis of heart failure or died in the vaccination type, covid-19 type, and conventional myocarditis groups, respectively. The relative risk of heart failure within 90 days was 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.85) and 1.48 (0.86 to 2.54) for myocarditis associated with vaccination and covid-19 disease, respectively, compared with conventional myocarditis; the relative risk of death was 0.48 (0.21 to 1.09) and 2.35 (1.06 to 5.19), respectively. Among patients aged 12-39 years with no predisposing comorbidities, the relative risk of heart failure or death was markedly higher for myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease than for myocarditis associated with vaccination (relative risk 5.78, 1.84 to 18.20). Conclusions: Compared with myocarditis associated with covid-19 disease and conventional myocarditis, myocarditis after vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines was associated with better clinical outcomes within 90 days of admission to hospital.

Mortality of asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap during an 18-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: We studied asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) to predict mortality in a cohort of Finnish adults with an 18-year follow up. METHODS: A national health examination survey representing Finnish adults aged ≥30 years was performed in 2000-2001. The study cohort included 5922 participants (73.8% of the sample) with all relevant data, including a comprehensive clinical examination and spirometry. These participants were followed continuously from baseline until end of 2018 for total, cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality through a record linkage. Asthma, COPD, and ACO were defined based on the survey data, including spirometry and register data. There were three separate groups of obstructive subjects (one definition excluding the others). RESULTS: Asthma and COPD were significantly associated with higher total mortality in Cox's model adjusted for sex, age, smoking, education level, BMI, leisure time physical activity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for asthma, COPD, and ACO were 1.29 (1.05-1.58), 1.50 (1.20-1.88), and 1.26 (0.97-1.65), respectively. Additionally, asthma (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09-1.97) and COPD (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Although ACO did not predict mortality in the whole cohort, there was a significant association with mortality risk among those with hs-CRP 1-2.99 mg/l. CONCLUSIONS: Asthma or COPD predicts higher total mortality and premature death from cardiovascular diseases.

Probable Sarcopenia, Obesity, and Risk of All-Cause Mortality: A Pooled Analysis of 4,612 Participants.

INTRODUCTION: Conflicting evidence exists concerning whether having sarcopenic obesity has additive mortality risk over having only sarcopenia or obesity. We examined the independent and combined associations of obesity and probable sarcopenia with all-cause mortality. METHODS: The pooled analysis included three large, harmonized datasets (Health 2000 Survey; Health, Aging and Body Composition Study; Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam) with mortality follow-up data on individuals aged 70 years and over at baseline (n = 4,612). Obesity indicators included body mass index and waist circumference, and probable sarcopenia was defined based on grip strength. The mixed effects Cox model was used for statistical analyses, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education, race, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking, and baseline diseases. RESULTS: Risk of death increased for those having probable sarcopenia only (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.85) or probable sarcopenia with obesity (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.13-1.64) but not for the obese-only group (HR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-1.01), when compared to non-obese non-sarcopenic individuals. The results were similar regardless of adjustments for covariates or different obesity criteria applied. CONCLUSION: Probable sarcopenia, whether combined with obesity or not, is associated with increased mortality. Obesity did not increase mortality among older adults. Maintaining muscle strength and identifying older adults at risk of sarcopenia is important for the prevention of premature mortality.

Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). METHODS: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Circulating cell-free DNA in health and disease - the relationship to health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolomics.

Circulating cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) has emerged as a promising biomarker of ageing, tissue damage and cellular stress. However, less is known about health behaviours, ageing phenotypes and metabolic processes that lead to elevated cf-DNA levels. We sought to analyse the relationship of circulating cf-DNA level to age, sex, smoking, physical activity, vegetable consumption, ageing phenotypes (physical functioning, the number of diseases, frailty) and an extensive panel of biomarkers including blood and urine metabolites and inflammatory markers in three human cohorts (N = 5385; 17-82 years). The relationships were assessed using correlation statistics, and linear and penalised regressions (the Lasso), also stratified by sex.cf-DNA levels were significantly higher in men than in women, and especially in middle-aged men and women who smoke, and in older more frail individuals. Correlation statistics of biomarker data showed that cf-DNA level was higher with elevated inflammation (C-reactive protein, interleukin-6), and higher levels of homocysteine, and proportion of red blood cells and lower levels of ascorbic acid. Inflammation (C-reactive protein, glycoprotein acetylation), amino acids (isoleucine, leucine, tyrosine), and ketogenesis (3-hydroxybutyrate) were included in the cf-DNA level-related biomarker profiles in at least two of the cohorts.In conclusion, circulating cf-DNA level is different by sex, and related to health behaviour, health decline and metabolic processes common in health and disease. These results can inform future studies where epidemiological and biological pathways of cf-DNA are to be analysed in details, and for studies evaluating cf-DNA as a potential clinical marker.

Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation.

AIMS: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. METHODS: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

Adjustment for survey non-participation using record linkage and multiple imputation: A validity assessment exercise using the Health 2000 survey.

AIMS: It is becoming increasingly possible to obtain additional information about health survey participants, though not usually non-participants, via record linkage. We aimed to assess the validity of an assumption underpinning a method developed to mitigate non-participation bias. We use a survey in Finland where it is possible to link both participants and non-participants to administrative registers. Survey-derived alcohol consumption is used as the exemplar outcome. METHODS: Data on participants (85.5%) and true non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey (invited survey sample N=7167 aged 30-79 years) and a contemporaneous register-based population sample (N=496,079) were individually linked to alcohol-related hospitalisation and death records. Applying the methodology to create synthetic observations on non-participants, we created 'inferred samples' (participants and inferred non-participants). Relative differences (RDs) between the inferred sample and the invited survey sample were estimated overall and by education. Five per cent limits were used to define acceptable RDs. RESULTS: Average weekly consumption estimates for men were 129 g and 131 g of alcohol in inferred and invited survey samples, respectively (RD -1.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.2 to -0.04%) and 35 g for women in both samples (RD -1.1%; 95% CI -2.4 to -0.8%). Estimates for men with secondary levels of education had the greatest RD (-2.4%; 95% CI -3.7 to -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The sufficiently small RDs between inferred and invited survey samples support the assumption validity and use of our methodology for adjusting for non-participation. However, the presence of some significant differences means caution is required.

Temporal changes in health-related lifestyle during the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland - a series of cross-sectional surveys.

BACKGROUND: Public health recommendations and governmental restrictions during the COVID-19 epidemic have affect everyday life. This study aimed to examine temporal changes in health-related lifestyle and the accumulation of positive and negative changes in the key lifestyle factors (vegetable consumption, leisure-time physical activity, sleeping, alcohol consumption, smoking) in the same individuals among Finnish adults during the epidemic. METHODS: This study was based on a series of cross-sectional surveys conducted between April 2020 and June 2021 to investigate antibody levels for the new coronavirus in the population. In each survey, a random sample of adults (18 to 69 years) from five university hospital regions were invited. A total of 5655 (response rate 32%) responded to the questionnaire including questions on lifestyle changes during epidemic. RESULTS: On average one-sixth of respondents (17%) reported at least two negative changes in the key lifestyle factors during the study period. An increase in snacking and sleep problems and decrease in leisure-time physical activity and active commuting to work were the most common of individual negative changes. The proportion of negative changes in physical activity increased as the epidemic drags on. In contrast, on average every seventh of the respondents (14%) reported at least two positive lifestyle changes in the key lifestyle factors. The most common individual positive changes were increased consumption of fruit, berries and vegetables and decreased consumption of alcohol. More negative changes were reported on average, when both negative and positive changes in the key lifestyle factors were summed. The most negative changes were reported in the late 2020. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study suggest that the lifestyle changes during the COVID-19 epidemic have been diverse being on average more commonly unfavorable than favorable for health. The deteriorated epidemic situation in the late 2020 and, on the other hand, prolonged epidemic predisposed to negative lifestyle changes. Further studies are important to examine whether these changes are maintained over time and to identify the factors that contribute to changes and their accumulation in the same individuals. Health promotion actions are needed to prevent the long-term effects of the epidemic on health and welfare.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland. METHODS: We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982). RESULTS: Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026. CONCLUSIONS: A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Myocarditis in a Nordic Cohort Study of 23 Million Residents.

Importance: Reports of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccination have emerged. Objective: To evaluate the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination by vaccine product, vaccination dose number, sex, and age. Design, Setting, and Participants: Four cohort studies were conducted according to a common protocol, and the results were combined using meta-analysis. Participants were 23 122 522 residents aged 12 years or older. They were followed up from December 27, 2020, until incident myocarditis or pericarditis, censoring, or study end (October 5, 2021). Data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations, hospital diagnoses of myocarditis or pericarditis, and covariates for the participants were obtained from linked nationwide health registers in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Exposures: The 28-day risk periods after administration date of the first and second doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, including BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and AZD1222 or combinations thereof. A homologous schedule was defined as receiving the same vaccine type for doses 1 and 2. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident outcome events were defined as the date of first inpatient hospital admission based on primary or secondary discharge diagnosis for myocarditis or pericarditis from December 27, 2020, onward. Secondary outcome was myocarditis or pericarditis combined from either inpatient or outpatient hospital care. Poisson regression yielded adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and excess rates with 95% CIs, comparing rates of myocarditis or pericarditis in the 28-day period following vaccination with rates among unvaccinated individuals. Results: Among 23 122 522 Nordic residents (81% vaccinated by study end; 50.2% female), 1077 incident myocarditis events and 1149 incident pericarditis events were identified. Within the 28-day period, for males and females 12 years or older combined who received a homologous schedule, the second dose was associated with higher risk of myocarditis, with adjusted IRRs of 1.75 (95% CI, 1.43-2.14) for BNT162b2 and 6.57 (95% CI, 4.64-9.28) for mRNA-1273. Among males 16 to 24 years of age, adjusted IRRs were 5.31 (95% CI, 3.68-7.68) for a second dose of BNT162b2 and 13.83 (95% CI, 8.08-23.68) for a second dose of mRNA-1273, and numbers of excess events were 5.55 (95% CI, 3.70-7.39) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of BNT162b2 and 18.39 (9.05-27.72) events per 100 000 vaccinees after the second dose of mRNA-1273. Estimates for pericarditis were similar. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this large cohort study indicated that both first and second doses of mRNA vaccines were associated with increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis. For individuals receiving 2 doses of the same vaccine, risk of myocarditis was highest among young males (aged 16-24 years) after the second dose. These findings are compatible with between 4 and 7 excess events in 28 days per 100 000 vaccinees after BNT162b2, and between 9 and 28 excess events per 100 000 vaccinees after mRNA-1273. This risk should be balanced against the benefits of protecting against severe COVID-19 disease.

Pairwise association of key lifestyle factors and risk of colorectal cancer: a prospective pooled multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Several lifestyle factors are associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Although lifestyle factors co-occur, in most previous studies these factors have been studied focusing upon a single risk factor or assuming independent effects between risk factors. AIM: To examine the pairwise effects and interactions of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and body mass index (BMI) with risk of subsequent colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used METCA cohort data (pooled data from seven population-based Finnish health behavior survey studies during years 1972-2015) consisting of 171 063 women and men. Participants' smoking, alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and BMI measures were gathered, and participants were categorized into those exposed and those not exposed. The incidence of CRC was modeled by Poisson regression with main and interaction effects of key lifestyle factors. The cohort members were followed-up through register linkage to the Finnish Cancer Registry for first primary CRC case until the end of 2015. Follow-up time was 1715, 690 person years. The highest pairwise CRC risk was among male smokers who had overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 ) (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.36-2.26) and women who had overweight and consumed alcohol (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14-1.85). Overall, among men the association of lifestyle factors and CRC risk was stronger than among women. In men, both having overweight and being a smoker combined with any other adverse lifestyle factor increased CRC risk. Among women, elevated CRC risks were observed for those who were physically inactive and who consumed alcohol or had overweight. No statistically significant interactions were detected between pairs of lifestyle factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the evidence of overweight, smoking, and alcohol consumption as CRC risk factors. Substantial protective benefits in CRC risk can be achieved by preventing smoking, maintaining BMI to <25 kg/m2 and not consuming alcohol.

Association between overall diet quality and postmenopausal breast cancer risk in five Finnish cohort studies.

There is limited evidence for any dietary factor, except alcohol, in breast cancer (BC) risk. Therefore, studies on a whole diet, using diet quality indices, can broaden our insight. We examined associations of the Nordic Diet (mNDI), Mediterranean diet (mMEDI) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index (mAHEI) with postmenopausal BC risk. Five Finnish cohorts were combined including 6374 postmenopausal women with dietary information. In all, 8-9 dietary components were aggregated in each index, higher total score indicating higher adherence to a healthy diet. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the combined hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for BC risk. During an average 10-year follow-up period, 274 incident postmenopausal BC cases were diagnosed. In multivariable models, the HR for highest vs. lowest quintile of index was 0.67 (95 %CI 0.48-1.01) for mNDI, 0.88 (0.59-1.30) for mMEDI and 0.89 (0.60-1.32) for mAHEI. In this combined dataset, a borderline preventive finding of high adherence to mNDI on postmenopausal BC risk was found. Of the indices, mNDI was more based on the local food culture than the others. Although a healthy diet has beneficially been related to several chronic diseases, the link with the etiology of postmenopausal BC does not seem to be that obvious.