Actuation of mobility intentions among the young-old: an event-history analysis.

PURPOSE: Although migration decision making is central to understanding later-life migration, the critical step between migration intentions and mobility outcomes has received only limited empirical attention. We address two questions: How often are intended moves actuated? What factors condition the likelihood that mobility intentions will be actuated? DESIGN AND METHODS: We employ data from the 1994-2002 Health and Retirement Study, which is a nationally representative panel targeting households containing persons aged 53 to 63 years at baseline. Event-history techniques are used to examine the link between reported mobility intentions at baseline and mobility outcomes across the study period, net of relevant controls. We conduct separate household-level analyses for couple and noncouple households and recognize three types of moves: local, family oriented, and nonlocal. RESULTS: Findings confirm the utility of mobility expectations as a predictor of future mobility. More importantly, results highlight the complex nature of later-life mobility. The actuation of mobility intentions appears to operate differently in couple than in noncouple households. Moreover, our findings suggest that the role of several key variables depends on the type of move under consideration. IMPLICATIONS: The ability to identify potential "retirement migrants" may be of practical importance for state and local government officials as well as developers interested in recruiting or retaining young-old residents. Our study offers insight on the interpretation of stated mobility intentions. Moreover, consistent with early theoretical work in the field, our analysis suggests that empirical studies must account for heterogeneity among older movers in order to avoid misleading results.

Predictors of non-local moves among older adults: a prospective study.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this article was to test a series of established predictors of the hazard of moving for persons primarily in their 50s and 60s. We tested demographic covariates, resources, travel experience, and community and person ties using a prospective design. METHODS: We employed data from the Health and Retirement Study, 1994 to 2002, based on a representative sample of households containing at least one member aged 51 to 61 in 1992. We employed measures available in the Health and Retirement Study to construct a series of Cox proportional hazards models that examined the causes of non-local moves. RESULTS: Community and person ties emerged as important predictors of non-local moves. DISCUSSION: Travel experience, when measured by regular vacationing and second homes, may increase community ties to a destination. The life-course model must be modified in its explanation of the importance of community and person ties, and of life transitions, as motivators of migration.

In retirement migration, who counts? A methodological question with economic policy implications.

PURPOSE: We examine the methodological and economic policy implications of three operations of retirement migration. DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the traditional age-based definition of retirement migration and two retirement-based definitions, based on degree of labor-force participation and retirement income, by using the 2000 U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample. RESULTS: The age-based definition overestimated the number of retired migrants, although the ranking of host and donor states remained relatively stable; nevertheless, states revealed different rates of change in inmigration and outmigration and income streams declined. IMPLICATIONS: Retirement-based definitions are more useful and precise for those researchers considering the economic implication of retirement migration.