Implementation and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including mask mandates and ventilation, on SARS-CoV-2 transmission (alpha variant) in primary schools in the Netherlands.

There has been a lot of discussion about the role of schools in the transmission of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, where many countries responded with school closures in 2020. Reopening of primary schools in the Netherlands in February 2021 was sustained by various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) following national recommendations. Our study attempted to assess the degree of regional implementation and effectiveness of these NPIs in South Limburg, Netherlands. We approached 150 primary schools with a structured questionnaire containing items on the implementation of NPIs, including items on ventilation. Based on our registry of cases, we determined the number of COVID-19 cases linked to each school, classifying cases by their source of transmission. We calculated a crude secondary attack rate by dividing the number of cases of within-school transmission by the total number of children and staff members. Two-sample proportion tests were performed to compare these rates between schools stratified by the presence of a ventilation system and mask mandates for staff members. A total of 69 schools responded. Most implemented NPIs were aimed at students, except for masking mandates, which preferentially targeted teachers over students (63% versus 22%). We observed lower crude secondary attack rates in schools with a ventilation system compared to schools without a ventilation system (1.2% versus 2.8%, p<0.01). Mandatory masking for staff members had no effect on the overall crude secondary attack rate (2.0% versus 2.1%, p = 0.03) but decreased the crude secondary attack rate among staff members (2.3% versus 1.7%, p<0.01). Schools varied in their implementation of NPIs, most of which targeted students. Rates of within-school transmission were higher compared to other studies, possibly due to a lack of proper ventilation. Our research may help improve guidance for primary schools in future outbreaks.

Increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) in children: three large primary school outbreaks revealed by whole genome sequencing in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Variant of concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was the dominant strain in the Netherlands between March 2021-June 2021. We describe three primary school outbreaks due to the alpha variant using whole genome sequencing with evidence of large-scale transmission among children, teachers and their household contacts. METHOD: All outbreaks described were investigated by the South Limburg Public Health Service, the Netherlands. A case was defined as an individual with a real-time polymerase chain reaction test or antigen test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Whole genome sequencing was performed on random samples from at least one child and one teacher of each affected class. RESULTS: Peak attack rates in classes were 53%, 33% and 39%, respectively. Specific genotypes were identified for each school across a majority of affected classes. Attack rates were high among staff members, likely to promote staff-to-children transmission. Cases in some classes were limited to children, indicating child-to-child transmission. At 39%, the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household contacts of infected children was remarkably high, similar to SAR in household contacts of staff members (42%). SAR of household contacts of asymptomatic children was only 9%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest increased transmissibility of the alpha variant in children compared to preceding non-VOC variants, consistent with a substantial rise in the incidence of cases observed in primary schools and children aged 5-12 since the alpha variant became dominant in March 2021. Lack of mandatory masking, insufficient ventilation and lack of physical distancing also probably contributed to the school outbreaks. The rise of the delta variant (B.1.617.2) since July 2021 which is estimated to be 55% more transmissible than the alpha variant, provides additional urgency to adequate infection prevention in school settings.

Signs and symptoms do not predict, but may help rule out acute Q fever in favour of other respiratory tract infections, and reduce antibiotics overuse in primary care.

BACKGROUND: From early 2009, the Dutch region of South Limburg experienced a massive outbreak of Q fever, overlapping with the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic during the second half of the year and affecting approximately 2.9% of a 300,000 population. Acute Q fever shares clinical features with other respiratory conditions. Most symptomatic acute infections are characterized by mild symptoms, or an isolated febrile syndrome. Pneumonia was present in a majority of hospitalized patients during the Dutch 2007-2010 Q fever epidemic. Early empiric doxycycline, guided by signs and symptoms and patient history, should not be delayed awaiting laboratory confirmation, as it may shorten disease and prevent progression to focalized persistent Q fever. We assessed signs' and symptoms' association with acute Q fever to guide early empiric treatment in primary care patients. METHODS: In response to the outbreak, regional primary care physicians and hospital-based medical specialists tested a total of 1218 subjects for Q fever. Testing activity was bimodal, a first "wave" lasting from March to December 2009, followed by a second "wave" which lasted into 2010 and coincided with peak pandemic influenza activity. We approached all 253 notified acute Q fever cases and a random sample of 457 Q fever negative individuals for signs and symptoms of disease. Using data from 140/229(61.1%) Q fever positive and 194/391(49.6%) Q fever negative respondents from wave 1, we built symptom-based models predictive of Q-fever outcome, validated against subsets of data from wave 1 and wave 2. RESULTS: Our models had poor to moderate AUC scores (0.68 to 0.72%), with low positive (4.6-8.3%), but high negative predictive values (91.7-99.5%). Male sex, fever, and pneumonia were strong positive predictors, while cough was a strong negative predictor of acute Q fever in these models. CONCLUSION: Whereas signs and symptoms of disease do not appear to predict acute Q fever, they may help rule it out in favour of other respiratory conditions, prompting a delayed or non-prescribing approach instead of early empiric doxycycline in primary care patients with non-severe presentations. Signs and symptoms thus may help reduce the overuse of antibiotics in primary care during and following outbreaks of Q fever.

Q fever: Evidence of a massive yet undetected cross-border outbreak, with ongoing risk of extra mortality, in a Dutch-German border region.

BACKGROUND: Following outbreaks in other parts of the Netherlands, the Dutch border region of South Limburg experienced a large-scale outbreak of human Q fever related to a single dairy goat farm in 2009, with surprisingly few cases reported from neighbouring German counties. Late chronic Q fever, with recent spikes of newly detected cases, is an ongoing public health concern in the Netherlands. We aimed to assess the scope and scale of any undetected cross-border transmission to neighbouring German counties, where individuals unknowingly exposed may carry extra risk of overlooked diagnosis. METHODS: (A) Seroprevalence rates in the Dutch area were estimated fitting an exponential gradient to the geographical distribution of notified acute human Q fever cases, using seroprevalence in a sample of farm township inhabitants as baseline. (B) Seroprevalence rates in 122 neighbouring German postcode areas were estimated from a sample of blood donors living in these areas and attending the regional blood donation centre in January/February 2010 (n = 3,460). (C) Using multivariate linear regression, including goat and sheep densities, veterinary Q fever notifications and blood donor sampling densities as covariates, we assessed whether seroprevalence rates across the entire border region were associated with distance from the farm. RESULTS: (A) Seroprevalence in the outbreak farm's township was 16.1%. Overall seroprevalence in the Dutch area was 3.6%. (B) Overall seroprevalence in the German area was 0.9%. Estimated mean seroprevalence rates (per 100,000 population) declined with increasing distance from the outbreak farm (0-19 km = 2,302, 20-39 km = 1,122, 40-59 km = 432 and ≥60 km = 0). Decline was linear in multivariate regression using log-transformed seroprevalence rates (0-19 km = 2.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.6 to 3.2], 20 to 39 km = 1.9 [95% CI = 1.0 to 2.8], 40-59 km = 0.6 [95% CI = -0.2 to 1.3] and ≥60 km = 0.0 [95% CI = -0.3 to 0.3]). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings were suggestive of widespread cross-border transmission, with thousands of undetected infections, arguing for intensified cross-border collaboration and surveillance and screening of individuals susceptible to chronic Q fever in the affected area.

Coxiella burnetii Infection Is Lower in Children than in Adults After Community Exposure: Overlooked Cause of Infrequent Q Fever Reporting in the Young.

BACKGROUND: Q fever is rarely reported in children/adolescents. Although lower reporting rates are commonly attributed to milder disease and subsequent underdiagnosis in infected children/adolescents, pertinent evidence is scarce. We present data from a large, well-defined single-point source outbreak of Q fever to fill this gap. METHODS: We compared (A) Q fever testing and notification rates in children/adolescents who were 0-19 years of age with those in adults 20+ years of age in October 2009; (B) serological attack rates of acute Q fever in children/adolescents with the rates in adults after on-source exposure on the outbreak farm's premises; (C) incidence of Q fever infection in children/adolescents with that in adults after off-source exposure in the municipality located closest to the farm. RESULTS: (A) Children/adolescents represented 19.3% (59,404 of 307,348) of the study area population, 12.1% (149 of 1217) of all subjects tested in October 2009 and 4.3% (11 of 253) of notified laboratory-confirmed community cases. (B) Serological attack rate of acute Q fever in children with on-source exposure was 71% (12 of 17), similar to adults [68% (40 of 59)]. (C) Incidence of infection in children/adolescents after community (off-source) exposure was 4.5% (13 of 287) versus 11.0% (12 of 109) in adults (adjusted odds ratio: 0.36; 95% confidence interval: 0.16-0.84; P = 0.02). No children/adolescents reported clinical symptoms. Proportion of notified infections was significantly lower in children/adolescents (2.5%) than in adults (10.4%; risk ratio: 0.26; 95% confidence interval: 0.08-0.80, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Notified Q fever was less frequent in children/adolescents than in adults. Although underrecognition contributed to this phenomenon, lower rates of infection in children after community exposure played an unexpected major role. On-source (presumed high-dose) exposure, by contrast, was associated with high serological and clinical attack rates not only in adults but also in children/adolescents. Our findings allow for improved age-specific clinical and public health risk assessment in Q fever outbreaks.

A model for the early identification of sources of airborne pathogens in an outdoor environment.

BACKGROUND: Source identification in areas with outbreaks of airborne pathogens is often time-consuming and expensive. We developed a model to identify the most likely location of sources of airborne pathogens. METHODS: As a case study, we retrospectively analyzed three Q fever outbreaks in the Netherlands in 2009, each with suspected exposure from a single large dairy goat farm. Model input consisted only of case residential addresses, day of first clinical symptoms, and human population density data. We defined a spatial grid and fitted an exponentially declining function to the incidence-distance data of each grid point. For any grid point with a fit significant at the 95% confidence level, we calculated a measure of risk. For validation, we used results from abortion notifications, voluntary (2008) and mandatory (2009) bulk tank milk sampling at large (i.e. >50 goats and/or sheep) dairy farms, and non-systematic vaginal swab sampling at large and small dairy and non-dairy goat/sheep farms. In addition, we performed a two-source simulation study. RESULTS: Hotspots--areas most likely to contain the actual source--were identified at early outbreak stages, based on the earliest 2-10% of the case notifications. Distances between the hotspots and suspected goat farms varied from 300-1500 m. In regional likelihood rankings including all large dairy farms, the suspected goat farms consistently ranked first. The two-source simulation study showed that detection of sources is most clear if the distance between the sources is either relatively small or relatively large. CONCLUSIONS: Our model identifies the most likely location of sources in an airborne pathogen outbreak area, even at early stages. It can help to reduce the number of potential sources to be investigated by microbial testing and to allow rapid implementation of interventions to limit the number of human infections and to reduce the risk of source-to-source transmission.

Q fever: single-point source outbreak with high attack rates and massive numbers of undetected infections across an entire region.

BACKGROUND: In early 2009, a dairy-goat annex care farm in South Limburg, the Netherlands, reported 220 Coxiella burnetii-related abortions in 450 pregnant goats. These preceded human cases and occurred in a region that was Q-fever free before 2009, providing a unique quasi-experimental setting for investigating regional transmission patterns associated with a Q-fever point source. METHODS: Index-farm residents/employees, visitors, and their household contacts were traced and screened for C. burnetii. Distribution of community cases was analysed using a geographic information system. True incidence, including undetected infections, was estimated regionwide by seroprevalence in a pre- versus postoutbreak sample, and near-farm by immunoglobulin M seroprevalence in a municipal population sample. Environmental bacterial load was repeatedly measured in surface and aerosol samples. RESULTS: Serological attack rate was 92% (24/26) in index-farm residents/employees, 56% (28/50) in visitors, and 50% (7/14) in household contacts, and the clinical attack rate (ie, the proportion of persons seropositive for acute infection who also had clinical illness) was ≥ 80%. Notified symptomatic community cases (n = 253) were scattered downwind from the index farm, following a significant exposure-response gradient. Observed incidence ranged from 6.3% (0-1 km) to 0.1% (4-5 km), and remained high beyond. True incidence of infections was estimated at 2.9% regionwide, extrapolating to 8941 infections; estimated near-farm incidence was 12%. Coxiella burnetii load was high on-farm (2009), and lower off-farm (2009-2010). CONCLUSIONS: Linking a single dairy-goat farm to a human Q-fever cluster, we show widespread transmission, massive numbers of undetected infections, and high attack rates on- and off-farm, even beyond a 5-km high-risk zone. Our investigation may serve as an essential case study for risk assessment in public health and related fields such as bioterrorism response and preparedness.