Switches in food and beverage product purchases can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.

Switching between similar food and beverage products may reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Here, using consumer data linked to 23,550 product-specific GHGe values, we estimated annual GHGe attributable to product purchases consumed at home in Australia and calculated reductions from specific switches. Potential changes to mean Health Star Rating, mean energy density and the proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased were assessed. Approximately 31 million tonnes of GHGe were attributable to products consumed at home in 2019, the three highest contributors of GHGe being 'meat and meat products' (49%), 'dairy' (17%) and 'non-alcoholic beverages' (16%). Switching higher-emission products for 'very similar' lower-emission products could reduce total emissions by 26%. Switches to 'less similar' lower-emission products could lead to a 71% reduction. Switches had little impact on the average Health Star Rating, energy density of purchases and proportion of ultraprocessed foods purchased. Directing manufacturing and marketing towards lower-environmental-impact products and signposting such options to consumers are key.

Integrating health, nutrition, and environmental impacts of foods: a life cycle impact assessment and modelling analysis of foods in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Given the urgency of transitioning towards sustainable nutrition, dietary shifts that provide co-benefits to human health and the environment are imperative. There is currently no database of the environmental impacts of foods that reflects Canada's unique geographical and agri-climatic context and regional inputs and emissions. To determine sustainable diets, harmonising nutritional considerations with environmental impacts is also essential for an equitable comparison of foods. We aimed to develop a Canadian Food Life Cycle Inventory database and a multidimensional index to enable a joint assessment of the health and environmental impacts of foods in Canada. METHODS: The Canadian Food Life Cycle Inventory database uses life cycle assessment methodology to evaluate environmental impacts. The datasets mirror Canada's food consumption patterns, averaging the spectrum of agricultural practices weighted by domestic production and import shares. The database is structured according to the nomenclature and categorisation of the Canadian Nutrient File. Environmental sustainability is assessed using a cradle-to-grave approach, including indicators such as greenhouse gas emissions, eutrophication, particulate matter, freshwater usage, land use, non-renewable energy consumption, and food loss and waste. Environmental impacts are quantified through an environmental impact score (EIS) assigned to each impact category for a given food. The EIS-nutrition (EIS-N) integrates the evaluation of nutritional quality with environmental impacts using Nutri-Score, a validated food nutrient-profiling tool. The EIS-N is modelled as a ratio of the EIS to the Nutri-Score values. FINDINGS: Preliminary results show the greatest environmental impacts for animal-based foods, particularly beef, in agreement with current literature. Foods with greater nutritional quality also generally show greater environmental sustainability, with some exceptions for particular impact categories. INTERPRETATION: The database and index have potential to serve as powerful tools to support researchers, policy makers, and consumers, harnessing big data to drive efficient food and climate solutions for systems transformation. FUNDING: Province of Ontario and University of Toronto, CIHR SMART Healthy Cities Training Platform, and University of Toronto's Temerty Faculty of Medicine.

A global land cover training dataset from 1984 to 2020.

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emissions.

Sustainable food systems require malnutrition and climate change to be addressed in parallel. Here, we estimate the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions resulting from closing the world's dietary nutrient gap-that between country-level nutrient supply and population requirements-for energy, protein, iron, zinc, vitamin A, vitamin B12 and folate under five climate-friendly intervention scenarios in 2030. We show that improving crop and livestock productivity and halving food loss and waste can close the nutrient gap with up to 42% lower emissions (3.03 Gt CO2eq yr-1) compared with business-as-usual supply patterns with a persistent nutrient gap (5.48 Gt CO2eq yr-1). Increased production and trade of vegetables, eggs, and roots and tubers can close the nutrient gap with the lowest emissions in most countries-with ≤23% increase in total caloric production required for 2030 relative to 2015. We conclude that the world's nutrient gap could be closed without exceeding global climate targets and without drastic changes to national food baskets.

Measuring Adherence to Sustainable Healthy Diets: A Scoping Review of Dietary Metrics.

Comprehensive metrics that provide a measure of dietary patterns at global and national levels are needed to inform and assess the effectiveness of policy actions that promote sustainable healthy diets. In 2019, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Health Organization reported 16 guiding principles of sustainable healthy diets, but it is still unknown how these principles are considered in dietary metrics. This scoping review aimed to explore how principles of sustainable healthy diets are considered in dietary metrics used worldwide. Forty-eight food-based, investigator-defined dietary pattern metrics assessing diet quality in free-living, healthy populations at the individual or household level were assessed against the 16 guiding principles of sustainable healthy diets, which was used as a theoretical framework. A strong adherence of the metrics to health-related guiding principles was found. Metrics had a weak adherence to principles related to environmental and sociocultural aspects of diets, except for the principle related to diets being culturally appropriate. No existing dietary metric captures all principles of sustainable healthy diets. Notably, the significance food processing, environmental, and sociocultural aspects of diets are generally understated. This likely reflects the lack of focus on these aspects in current dietary guidelines, which highlights the importance of including these emerging topics in future dietary recommendations. The absence of quantitative metrics that comprehensively measure sustainable healthy diets limits the body of evidence that would otherwise inform national and international guideline developments. Our findings can help grow the quantity and quality of the body of evidence available to inform policy activities to realize 2030 Sustainable Development Goals of multiple United Nations. Adv Nutr 2022;x:xx.

From harmful nutrients to ultra-processed foods: exploring shifts in 'foods to limit' terminology used in national food-based dietary guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: The choice of terms used to describe 'foods to limit' (FTL) in food-based dietary guidelines (FBDG) can impact public understanding, policy translation and research applicability. The choice of terms in FBDG has been influenced by available science, values, beliefs and historical events. This study aimed to analyse the terms used and definitions given to FTL in FBDG around the world, including changes over time and regional differences. DESIGN: A review of terms used to describe FTL and their definitions in all current and past FBDG for adults was conducted, using a search strategy informed by the FAO FBDG website. Data from 148 guidelines (96 countries) were extracted into a pre-defined table and terms were organised by the categories 'nutrient-based', 'food examples' or 'processing-related'. SETTING: National FBDG from all world regions. PARTICIPANTS: None. RESULTS: Nutrient-based terms (e.g. high-fat foods) were the most frequently used type of term in both current and past dietary guidelines (91 %, 85 %, respectively). However, food examples (e.g. cakes) and processing-related terms (e.g. ultra-processed foods) have increased in use over the past 20 years and are now often used in conjunction with nutrient-based terms. Regional differences were only observed for processing-related terms. CONCLUSION: Diverse, and often poorly defined, terms are used to describe FTL in FBDG. Policymakers should ensure that FTL terms have clear definitions and can be integrated with other disciplines and understood by consumers. This may facilitate the inclusion of the most contemporary and potentially impactful terminology in nutrition research and policies.

Multi-target scenario discovery to plan for sustainable food and land systems in Australia.

The development of detailed national pathways towards sustainable food and land systems aims to provide stakeholders with clarity on how long-term goals could be achieved and to reduce roadblocks in the way to making commitments. However, the inability to perfectly capture the relationships between all variables in a system and the unknown probability of future values (deep uncertainty) makes it very difficult to design scenarios that account for the full breadth of system uncertainty. Here we use scenario discovery to systematically explore the effect of different parameter ranges on model outputs, and design resilient pathways to sustainability in which multiple target achievement requires a broad portfolio of solutions. We use a model of the Australian food and land system, the FABLE (Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, Energy) Calculator, to investigate conditions for achieving a sustainable Australian food and land system under scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 1, 2, and 3 narratives. Here we link the FABLE Calculator with a Monte Carlo simulation tool to explore hundreds of thousands of scenarios. This allows us to identify the ranges of systemic drivers that achieve multiple sustainability targets around diets, net forest growth, agricultural water consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity conservation, and exports by 2050. Our results show that livestock productivity and density, afforestation, and dietary change are powerful influencers for sustainability target achievement. Around 10% of the SSP1 scenarios could achieve all modelled sustainability targets. However, practically none of the scenarios based on SSP2 and SSP3 narratives could achieve such targets. The results suggest that there are options to achieve a more sustainable and resilient Australian food and land-use system with better socio-economic and environmental outcomes than under current trends. However, its achievement requires significant structural changes and coordinated interventions in several components of the domestic food and land system to increase its resilience and environmental and socio-economic performance. Understanding the bounds within which this system needs to change and operate to achieve sustainability targets will enable greater clarity and flexibility during discussions between decision-makers and stakeholders. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01202-2.

Survey data on climate change adaptation and barriers to adoption among smallholder farmers in Nepal.

The dataset presents the raw data collected through household surveys of smallholder farmers on adaptation to climatic variabilities and change in Sudurpaschim Pradesh (Far Western Province), Nepal. The dataset comprises farmers' responses on the likely determinants of adaptation decisions, actual uptake of adaptation measures, and the barriers to adaptation. We collected the data by conducting face-to-face interviews of 327 farmers using structured questionnaires in all nine districts representing the Mountain, Hill, and Terai agroecosystems in the province. We employed a stratified random sampling technique to recruit participants and interviewed them during December 2019 and March 2020. The interview methodology was approved by the Human Ethics Review Committee at Deakin University, Australia. The dataset is important for understanding the drivers of climate change adaptation and the barriers to adaptation to enhance the resilience of smallholder agriculture in far-western Nepal and can inform climate change adaptation strategies for the region and for the smallholder agroecosystems more broadly. The data are provided with this article.

The role of planetary boundaries in assessing absolute environmental sustainability across scales.

The idea of revisiting the biophysical limits of human life on planet Earth has gained renewed momentum in the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework has emerged as a strong guardrail concept, even though its capacity to inform the development of absolute sustainability assessments and realistic policies remains unclear. In this paper, we present a current synthesis of the development of absolute environmental sustainability (AES) indicators and assessments informed by PBs. We firstly explore how PBs have been considered in AES research at different scales. We then present a critique of how consensus could be reached in standardising and harmonising the share of globally and locally allocated safe operating spaces. We argue that PBs must be linked to human consumption as the main socio-economic driver and that planetary concerns can only be addressed through a holistic perspective that encompasses global tele-connections. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for the future design of AES indicators and assessments informed by PBs.

Pesticide Toxicity Hazard of Agriculture: Regional and Commodity Hotspots in Australia.

While the need to reduce the impacts of pesticide use on the environment is increasingly acknowledged, the existing data on the use of agricultural chemicals are hardly adequate to support this goal. This study presents a novel, spatially explicit, national-scale baseline analysis of pesticide toxicity hazard (the potential for chemicals to do harm). The results show an uneven contribution of land uses and growing regions toward the national aggregate toxicity hazard. A hectare of horticultural crops generates on average ten times more aquatic ecotoxicity hazard and five times more human toxicity hazard than a hectare of broadacre crops, but the higher yields and incomes in horticulture mean that both sectors are similar in terms of environmental efficiency. Livestock is the sector with the least contribution to overall hazard, even when the indirect hazard associated with feed is considered. Metrics such as pesticide use (kg/ha) or spray frequency (sprays/ha), commonly reported in highly aggregated forms, are not linearly related to toxicity hazard and are therefore less informative in driving reductions in impact. We propose toxicity hazard as a more suitable indicator for real-world risk than quantity of pesticide used, especially because actual risk can often be difficult to quantify. Our results will help broaden the discussion around pathways toward sustainability in the land-use sector and identify targeted priorities for action.

Ultra-processed foods and the nutrition transition: Global, regional and national trends, food systems transformations and political economy drivers.

Understanding the drivers and dynamics of global ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption is essential, given the evidence linking these foods with adverse health outcomes. In this synthesis review, we take two steps. First, we quantify per capita volumes and trends in UPF sales, and ingredients (sweeteners, fats, sodium and cosmetic additives) supplied by these foods, in countries classified by income and region. Second, we review the literature on food systems and political economy factors that likely explain the observed changes. We find evidence for a substantial expansion in the types and quantities of UPFs sold worldwide, representing a transition towards a more processed global diet but with wide variations between regions and countries. As countries grow richer, higher volumes and a wider variety of UPFs are sold. Sales are highest in Australasia, North America, Europe and Latin America but growing rapidly in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. These developments are closely linked with the industrialization of food systems, technological change and globalization, including growth in the market and political activities of transnational food corporations and inadequate policies to protect nutrition in these new contexts. The scale of dietary change underway, especially in highly populated middle-income countries, raises serious concern for global health.

Exploring consumption-based planetary boundary indicators: An absolute water footprinting assessment of Chinese provinces and cities.

The water planetary boundary (PB) has attracted wide academic attention, but empirical water footprint research that accommodates local biophysical boundaries remains scarce. Here we develop two novel quantitative footprint indicators, the water exceedance footprint and the surplus water footprint. The first measures the amount of excessive water withdrawal (exceeded amount of water withdrawn against local water PBs) and the latter evaluates the potential of surplus water that can be sustainably utilised (amount of surplus water available within local water PBs). We quantify the extent to which demand for goods and services in Chinese provinces and cities are driving excessive withdrawal of local and global water resources. We investigate both territorial and consumption-based water withdrawal deficit and surplus against local water withdrawal PBs. We also trace how PB-exceeded water and surplus water are appropriated for producing certain commodities. In 2015, China's domestic water exceedance reaches 101 km3 while the total water exceedance footprint is 92 km3. We find that 47% of domestic excessive water withdrawal is associated with interprovincial trade. Exceeded water transfers were dominated by agricultural trade from the drier North to the wetter South. A revised virtual water trade network informed by exceedance and surplus water footprint metrics could help address sustainability concerns that arise from the trade of water-intensive commodities. Our findings highlight that policy targets need to accommodate PB exceedance of both direct and virtual water use.

Resilience of smallholder cropping to climatic variability.

Smallholder agriculture is a major contributor to global food production and is vital for ensuring food security in many developing countries. Smallholder agriculture is a typically complex and heterogeneous social-ecological system that is especially susceptible to climatic variability. Research has often focused on examining climate impacts on crops in smallholder agriculture. However, the resilience of smallholder agriculture in terms of maintaining yield remains largely unexplored. We empirically quantified the resilience of rice, wheat and maize to climatic variabilities for the Far Western Province of Nepal. We calculated resilience indices (RI) comparing the anomalies of actual yield in agricultural statistics to the expected yields generated by a process-based yield simulation model for nine districts across the Terai, Hill and Mountain regions of the province. Based on the sustainable livelihoods framework, we then assessed the degree to which indicator variables correlate with resilience. The results demonstrate the variability of resilience across regions and crops. Terai, Hill and Mountain regions were found to be resilient in wheat, rice and wheat, and maize, respectively. Each region has maintained resilience in at least one crop suggesting that smallholder farmers have prioritised food subsistence. While Nepal's current Agricultural Development Strategy is focused on boosting yields in the Terai, we found the region to be less resilient overall compared to the Hill and the Mountain regions. Theory-driven capital indicators exhibited a weak and often contradictory relationship with resilience. Such indicators, used in isolation, could therefore misguide the resilience assessment in the absence of complementary fine-scale exploratory social research necessary to explain the drivers of resilience in smallholder agriculture and infer policy decisions.

Enabling Full Supply Chain Corporate Responsibility: Scope 3 Emissions Targets for Ambitious Climate Change Mitigation.

There is building consensus that nonstate actors have the potential to drive more ambitious action toward climate targets than governments, thus driving the necessary transition to ensure that humanity remains within a safe operating space. These bottom-up mitigation activities, however, require individual targets on both direct and indirect (upstream) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to reconcile trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals. Here we use a scenario-driven approach based on a global multiregional input-output (GMRIO) model to develop scope 3 emission reduction targets for individual economic sectors, comparable across countries and geographies. Under an ambitious carbon mitigation scenario for 2035 (that follows a trajectory of 1.75 °C total warming by 2100), global upstream scope 3 emission intensities need to be reduced by an additional 54% compared to a baseline scenario with reference technology. On a sectoral basis, this is equivalent to a 58-67% reduction in energy, transport, and materials, a 50-52% reduction in manufacturing, services, and buildings, and a 39% reduction in agriculture, forestry, and other land use. By aligning indirect supply chain targets with ambitious carbon mitigation scenarios, our approach can be used by nonstate actors to set actionable scope 3 targets and to build climate-compatible business models.

From Water-Use to Water-Scarcity Footprinting in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis.

Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) supports environmental policy by quantifying how demand for goods and services leads to resource use and emissions across the economy. However, some types of resource use and emissions require spatially explicit impact assessment for meaningful interpretation, which is not possible in conventional EEIOA. For example, water use in locations of scarcity and of abundance are not environmentally equivalent. Opportunities for spatially explicit impact assessment in conventional EEIOA are limited because official input-output tables tend to be produced at the scale of political units, which are not usually well-aligned with environmentally relevant spatial units. In this study, spatially explicit water-scarcity factors and a spatially disaggregated Australian water-use account were used to develop water-scarcity extensions that were coupled with a multiregional input-output model (MRIO). The results link demand for agricultural commodities to the problem of water scarcity in Australia and globally. Important differences were observed between the water-use and water-scarcity footprint results as well as the relative importance of direct and indirect water use, with significant implications for sustainable production and consumption-related policies. The approach presented here is suggested as a feasible general approach for incorporating spatially explicit impact assessments in EEIOA.

Understanding the LCA and ISO water footprint: A response to Hoekstra (2016) "A critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA".

Water footprinting has emerged as an important approach to assess water use related effects from consumption of goods and services. Assessment methods are proposed by two different communities, the Water Footprint Network (WFN) and the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) community. The proposed methods are broadly similar and encompass both the computation of water use and its impacts, but differ in communication of a water footprint result. In this paper, we explain the role and goal of LCA and ISO-compatible water footprinting and resolve the six issues raised by Hoekstra (2016) in "A critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA". By clarifying the concerns, we identify both the overlapping goals in the WFN and LCA water footprint assessments and discrepancies between them. The main differing perspective between the WFN and LCA-based approach seems to relate to the fact that LCA aims to account for environmental impacts, while the WFN aims to account for water productivity of global fresh water as a limited resource. We conclude that there is potential to use synergies in research for the two approaches and highlight the need for proper declaration of the methods applied.