Cost of illness of breast cancer in Japan: trends and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a major cause of death for women in Japan. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the economic burden associated with breast cancer in Japan and identify the key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of breast cancer. METHODS: We calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2020 using governmental statistics. COI was calculated by summing the direct costs, morbidity costs, and mortality costs. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2011 COI was trending upward. COI in 2011 (697 billion yen) was 1.7-times greater than that in 1996 (407 billion yen). The mortality costs accounted for approximately 65-70% of the total COI and were a major contributing factor to increase in COI. It was predicted that COI would continue to trend upwards until 2020 (699.4-743.8 billion yen depending on the model), but the rate of increase would decline. CONCLUSIONS: COI of breast cancer has been steadily increasing since 1996. While the rate of increase is expected to plateau, the average age at death from breast cancer is still less than that from other cancers, and the relative economic burden of breast cancer will continue to increase in the foreseeable future.

Cost of illness of the cervical cancer of the uterus in Japan--a time trend and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates among young women in Japan. The objective of this study was to assess and project the economic burden associated with cervical cancer in Japan and identify factors affecting future changes in this burden on society. METHODS: Utilizing government-based statistical nationwide data, we used the cost of illness (COI) method to estimate the COIs for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011 to make predictions for 2014, 2017, and 2020. The COI comprised direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality costs). RESULTS: The COI was estimated to have increased by 66% from 96.1 billion yen in 1996 to 159.9 billion yen in 2011. The number of deaths increased, but the proportion of those aged ≥65 years as a percentage of all deaths remained mostly unchanged, with no increase in the average age at death. The mortality cost per person was estimated to have increased (31.5 million yen in 1996 vs. 43.5 million yen in 2011). Assuming that the current trend in health-related indicators continues, the COI is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014, followed by almost no change in 2020 (the estimated COI is 145.3-164.6 billion yen). The mortality cost per person is predicted to remain almost unchanged (39.4-46.3 million yen in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: The fact that the life expectancy of affected individuals is not being prolonged and that the mortality in young individuals with a high human capital value is not decreasing may contribute to future sustainment of the COI. We believe that the results of the present study are applicable to discussions of disease control priorities.

Cost of illness of the stomach cancer in Japan - a time trend and future projections.

BACKGROUND: Stomach cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in Japan. The objectives of this study were to estimate and project the economic burden associated with stomach cancer in Japan, and to identify the key factors that drive the economic burden of stomach cancer. METHODS: We calculated Cost of illness (COI) of 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020 by using government office statistics and the COI method. We calculated direct cost and indirect cost (morbidity cost and mortality cost), and estimated the COI by summing them up. RESULTS: The number of deaths remained at approximately 50,000 in 1996-2008. COI was in downward trend from 1,293.5 billion yen in 1996 to 1,114.2 billion yen in 2008. Morbidity cost was 85.6 billion yen and 54.0 billion yen, mortality cost was 972.3 billion yen and 806.4 billion yen, and mortality cost per person was 19.4 million yen and 16.1 million yen in 1996 and 2008, respectively. Decrease of mortality cost that accounted for a large part of the COI (72.4% in 2008) was the major contributing factor. COI is predicted to decrease if the trend of health related indicators continues (442.8-1,056.1 billion yen depending on the model in 2020). Mortality cost per person is also predicted to decrease (9.5-12.5 million yen depending on the model in 2020). CONCLUSIONS: If the trend of health related indicators continues, it is estimated that COI of stomach cancer would decrease. "Aging", "change of the healthcare providing system" and "new medical technology" are considered as contributing factors of COI.