ABSTRACT
The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020-2039 (near future), 2040-2069 (mid-century), and 2080-2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995-2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region's climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models' outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.
Subject(s)
Climate Change , Water Resources , Africa , Forecasting , FranceABSTRACT
In this paper, we propose a remote sensing model based on a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of sunshine percentage (SSP) and sunshine duration (SD), taking into account terrain features and atmospheric factors. To account for the influence of topography and atmospheric conditions in the model, a digital elevation model (DEM) and cloud products from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2010 were incorporated into the model and subsequently validated against in situ observation data. The annual and monthly average daily total SSP and SD have been estimated based on the proposed model. The error analysis results indicate that the proposed modelled SD is in good agreement with ground-based observations. The model performance is evaluated against two classical interpolation techniques (kriging and inverse distance weighting (IDW)) based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean relative error (MRE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results reveal that the SD obtained from the proposed model performs better than those obtained from the two classical interpolators. This results indicate that the proposed model can reliably reflect the contribution of terrain and cloud cover in SD estimation in Ghana, and the model performance is expected to perform well in similar environmental conditions.
