Using a Dynamic Model to Estimate the Cost-Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination in Iran.

This study aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against HPV. An age-sex structured dynamic disease transmission model was created to estimate the spread of HPV and the HPV-related incidence of cervical cancer (CC) in Iran. Sixteen age groups of men and women were incorporated to reflect the differences in sexual preferences, vaccination uptake, and disease-related outcomes. Three scenarios were evaluated by using an Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) with gained quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). ICER values below one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are evaluated as highly cost-effective. Vaccination reduces the number of infections and CC-related mortality. Over time, the vaccinated group ages and older age groups experience protection. An initial investment is required and savings in treatment spending reduce the impact over time. Vaccinating girls only was found to be cost-effective, with an ICER close to once the GDP per capita. Vaccinating both sexes was shown to be less cost-effective compared to girls only, and vaccinating boys only was not found to be cost-effective, with an ICER between once and three times, and greater than three times the GDP per capita, respectively. The estimates are conservative since societal cost-saving and the impact of other HPV-related illnesses were not considered and would likely reduce the ICERs.

Analysing COVID-19 outcomes in the context of the 2019 Global Health Security (GHS) Index.

INTRODUCTION: The Global Health Security Index benchmarks countries' capacities to carry out the functions necessary to prevent, detect and respond to biological threats. The COVID-19 pandemic served as an opportunity to evaluate whether the Index contained the correct array of variables that influence countries' abilities to respond to these threats; assess additional variables that may influence preparedness; and examine how the impact of preparedness components change during public health crises. METHODS: Linear regression models were examined to determine the relationship between excess mortality per capita for the first 500 days of countries' COVID-19 pandemic and internal Index variables, as well as external variables including social cohesion; island status; perceived corruption; elderly population size; previous epidemic experience; stringency of non-pharmaceutical interventions; and social and political polarisation. RESULTS: COVID-19 outcomes were significantly associated with sociodemographic, political and governance variables external to the 2019 Index: social cohesion, reduction in social polarisation and reduced perceptions of corruption were consistently correlated with reduced excess mortality throughout the pandemic. The association of other variables assessed by the Index, like epidemiological workforce robustness, changed over time. Fixed country features, including geographic connectedness, larger elderly population and lack of prior coronavirus outbreak experience were detrimental to COVID-19 outcomes. Finally, there was evidence that countries that lacked certain capacities were able to develop these over the course of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Additional sociodemographic, political and governance variables should be included in future indices to improve their ability to characterise preparedness. Fixed characteristics, while not directly addressable, are useful for establishing countries' inherent risk profile and can motivate those at greater risk to invest in preparedness. Particular components of preparedness vary in their impact on outcomes over the course of the pandemic, which may inform resource direction during ongoing crises. Future research should seek to further characterise time-dependent impacts as additional COVID-19 outcome data become available.

COVID-19 Vaccination Scenarios: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Turkey.

As of March 2021, COVID-19 has claimed the lives of more than 2.7 million people worldwide. Vaccination has started in most countries around the world. In this study, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 vaccination for Turkey compared to a baseline in the absence of vaccination and imposed measures by using an enhanced SIRD (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered, Death) model and various scenarios for the first year after vaccination. The results showed that vaccination is cost-effective from a health care perspective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 511 USD/QALY and 1045 USD/QALY if vaccine effectiveness on transmission is equal or reduced to only 50% of effectiveness on disease, respectively, at the 90% baseline effectiveness of the vaccine. From a societal perspective, cost savings were estimated for both scenarios. Other results further showed that the minimum required vaccine uptake to be cost-effective would be at least 30%. Sensitivity and scenario analyses, as well as the iso-ICER curves, showed that the results were quite robust and that major changes in cost-effectiveness outcomes cannot be expected. We can conclude that COVID-19 vaccination in Turkey is highly cost-effective or even cost-saving.

Reconstructing the Effectiveness of Policy Measures to Avoid Next-Wave COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Using a Dynamic Simulation Model: Implications for Health Technology Assessment.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to dynamically model next-wave scenarios to observe the impact of different lockdown measures on the infection rates (IR) and mortality for two different prototype countries, mimicking the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. METHODS: A dynamic simulation SIRD model was designed to assess the effectiveness of policy measures on four next-wave scenarios, each preceded by two different lockdowns. The four scenarios were (1) no-measures, (2) uniform measures, (3) differential measures based on isolating > 60 years of age group, and (4) differential measures with additional contact reduction measures for the 20-60 years of age group. The dynamic simulation model was prepared for two prototype European countries, Northwestern (NW) and Southern (S) country. Both prototype countries were characterized based on age composition and contact matrix. RESULTS: The results show that the outcomes of the next-wave scenarios depend on number of infections of previous lockdowns. All scenarios reduce the incremental deaths compared with a no-measures scenario. Differential measures show lower number of deaths despite an increase of infections. Additionally, prototype S shows overall more deaths compared with prototype NW due to a higher share of older citizens. CONCLUSION: This study shows that differential measures are a worthwhile option for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. This may also be the case in situations where relevant parts of the population have taken up vaccination. Additionally, the effectiveness of interventions strongly depends on the number of previously infected individuals. The results of this study may be useful when planning and forecasting the impact of non-pharmacological interventions and vaccination campaigns.

Applying the results based management framework to the CERCA multi-component project in adolescent sexual and reproductive health: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH), problems such as unplanned pregnancies are complex and multifactorial, thus requiring multifaceted prevention interventions. Evaluating the impact of such interventions is important to ensure efficiency, effectiveness and accountability for project funders and community members. In this study, we propose Results Based Management (RBM) as a framework for project management, using the Community Embedded Reproductive Health Care for Adolescents (CERCA) as a case study for RBM. The CERCA Project (2010-2014) tested interventions to reduce adolescent pregnancy in three Latin American countries, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Activities were designed to increase adolescent SRH behaviors in four domains: communication with parents, partners and peers; access to SRH information; access to SRH services; and use of contraception. When the project ended, the outcome evaluation showed limited impact with concerns about accuracy of monitoring and attrition of participants. METHODS: We reviewed and analyzed a series of CERCA documents and related data sources. Key findings from these documents were organized within an RBM framework (planning, monitoring, and impact evaluation) to understand how CERCA methodology and performance might have reaped improved results. RESULTS: Strengths and weaknesses were identified in all three elements of the RBM framework. In Planning, the proposed Theory of Change (ToC) differed from that which was carried out in the intervention package. Each country implemented a different intervention package without articulated assumptions on how the activities of intervention would bring about change. In Monitoring, the project oversight was mainly based on administrative and financial requirements rather than monitoring fidelity and quality of intervention activities. In Impact Evaluation, the original CERCA evaluation assessed intervention effects among adolescents, without identifying success and failure factors related to the outcomes, the nature of the outcomes, or cost-effectiveness of interventions. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis showed that multi-country projects are complex, entail risks in execution and require robust project management. RBM can be a useful tool to ensure a systematic approach at different phases within a multi-country setting.

Improving adolescent sexual and reproductive health in Latin America: reflections from an International Congress.

In February 2014, an international congress on Promoting Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health (ASRH) took place in Cuenca, Ecuador. Its objective was to share evidence on effective ASRH intervention projects and programs in Latin America, and to link this evidence to ASRH policy and program development. Over 800 people participated in the three-day event and sixty-six presentations were presented.This paper summarizes the key points of the Congress and of the Community Embedded Reproductive Health Care for Adolescents (CERCA) project. It aims at guiding future ASRH research and policy in Latin America. 1. Context matters. Individual behaviors are strongly influenced by the social context in which they occur, through determinants at the individual, relational, family, community and societal levels. Gender norms/attitudes and ease of communication are two key determinants. 2. Innovative action. There is limited and patchy evidence of effective approaches to reach adolescents with the health interventions they need at scale. Yet, there exist several promising and innovative examples of providing comprehensive sexuality education through conventional approaches and using new media, improving access to health services, and reaching adolescents as well as families and community members using community-based interventions were presented at the Congress. 3. Better measurement. Evaluation designs and indicators chosen to measure the effect and impact of interventions are not always sensitive to subtle and incremental changes. This can create a gap between measured effectiveness and the impact perceived by the targeted populations. Thus, one conclusion is that we need more evidence to better determine the factors impeding progress in ASRH in Latin American, to innovate and respond flexibly to changing social dynamics and cultural practices, and to better measure the impact of existing intervention strategies. Yet, this Congress offered a starting point from which to build a multi-agency and multi-country effort to generate specific evidence on ASRH with the aim of guiding policy and program decision-making. In a region that contains substantial barriers of access to ASRH education and services, and some of the highest adolescent pregnancy rates in the world, the participants agreed that there is no time to lose.