Improving Wheat Yield Prediction Using Secondary Traits and High-Density Phenotyping Under Heat-Stressed Environments.

A primary selection target for wheat (Triticum aestivum) improvement is grain yield. However, the selection for yield is limited by the extent of field trials, fluctuating environments, and the time needed to obtain multiyear assessments. Secondary traits such as spectral reflectance and canopy temperature (CT), which can be rapidly measured many times throughout the growing season, are frequently correlated with grain yield and could be used for indirect selection in large populations particularly in earlier generations in the breeding cycle prior to replicated yield testing. While proximal sensing data collection is increasingly implemented with high-throughput platforms that provide powerful and affordable information, efficient and effective use of these data is challenging. The objective of this study was to monitor wheat growth and predict grain yield in wheat breeding trials using high-density proximal sensing measurements under extreme terminal heat stress that is common in Bangladesh. Over five growing seasons, we analyzed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and CT measurements collected in elite breeding lines from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center at the Regional Agricultural Research Station, Jamalpur, Bangladesh. We explored several variable reduction and regularization techniques followed by using the combined secondary traits to predict grain yield. Across years, grain yield heritability ranged from 0.30 to 0.72, with variable secondary trait heritability (0.0-0.6), while the correlation between grain yield and secondary traits ranged from -0.5 to 0.5. The prediction accuracy was calculated by a cross-fold validation approach as the correlation between observed and predicted grain yield using univariate and multivariate models. We found that the multivariate models resulted in higher prediction accuracies for grain yield than the univariate models. Stepwise regression performed equal to, or better than, other models in predicting grain yield. When incorporating all secondary traits into the models, we obtained high prediction accuracies (0.58-0.68) across the five growing seasons. Our results show that the optimized phenotypic prediction models can leverage secondary traits to deliver accurate predictions of wheat grain yield, allowing breeding programs to make more robust and rapid selections.

Development of whole-genome prediction models to increase the rate of genetic gain in intermediate wheatgrass (Thinopyrum intermedium) breeding.

The development of perennial grain crops is driven by the vision of simultaneous food production and enhanced ecosystem services. Typically, perennial crops like intermediate wheatgrass (IWG)[Thinopyrum intermedium (Host) Barkworth & D.R Dewey] have low seed yield and other detrimental traits. Next-generation sequencing has made genomic selection (GS) a tractable and viable breeding method. To investigate how an IWG breeding program may use GS, we evaluated 3,658 genets over 2 yr for 46 traits to build a training population. Six statistical models were used to evaluate the non-replicated data, and a model using autoregressive order 1 (AR1) spatial correction for rows and columns combined with the genomic relationship matrix provided the highest estimates of heritability. Genomic selection models were built from 18,357 single nucleotide polymorphism markers via genotyping-by-sequencing, and a 20-fold cross-validation showed high predictive ability for all traits (r > .80). Predictive abilities improved with increased training population size and marker numbers, even with larger amounts of missing data per marker. On the basis of these results, we propose a GS breeding method that is capable of completing one cycle per year compared with a minimum of 2 yr per cycle with phenotypic selection. We estimate that this breeding approach can increase the rate of genetic gain up to 2.6× above phenotypic selection for spike yield in IWG, allowing GS to enable rapid domestication and improvement of this crop. These breeding methods should be transferable to other species with similar long breeding cycles or limited capacity for replicated observations.

Application of unmanned aerial systems for high throughput phenotyping of large wheat breeding nurseries.

BACKGROUND: Low cost unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have great potential for rapid proximal measurements of plants in agriculture. In the context of plant breeding and genetics, current approaches for phenotyping a large number of breeding lines under field conditions require substantial investments in time, cost, and labor. For field-based high-throughput phenotyping (HTP), UAS platforms can provide high-resolution measurements for small plot research, while enabling the rapid assessment of tens-of-thousands of field plots. The objective of this study was to complete a baseline assessment of the utility of UAS in assessment field trials as commonly implemented in wheat breeding programs. We developed a semi-automated image-processing pipeline to extract plot level data from UAS imagery. The image dataset was processed using a photogrammetric pipeline based on image orientation and radiometric calibration to produce orthomosaic images. We also examined the relationships between vegetation indices (VIs) extracted from high spatial resolution multispectral imagery collected with two different UAS systems (eBee Ag carrying MultiSpec 4C camera, and IRIS+ quadcopter carrying modified NIR Canon S100) and ground truth spectral data from hand-held spectroradiometer. RESULTS: We found good correlation between the VIs obtained from UAS platforms and ground-truth measurements and observed high broad-sense heritability for VIs. We determined radiometric calibration methods developed for satellite imagery significantly improved the precision of VIs from the UAS. We observed VIs extracted from calibrated images of Canon S100 had a significantly higher correlation to the spectroradiometer (r = 0.76) than VIs from the MultiSpec 4C camera (r = 0.64). Their correlation to spectroradiometer readings was as high as or higher than repeated measurements with the spectroradiometer per se. CONCLUSION: The approaches described here for UAS imaging and extraction of proximal sensing data enable collection of HTP measurements on the scale and with the precision needed for powerful selection tools in plant breeding. Low-cost UAS platforms have great potential for use as a selection tool in plant breeding programs. In the scope of tools development, the pipeline developed in this study can be effectively employed for other UAS and also other crops planted in breeding nurseries.