A Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues for 2020.

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics.

Statistical aspects of environmental risk assessment of GM plants for effects on non-target organisms.

Previous European guidance for environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants emphasized the concepts of statistical power but provided no explicit requirements for the provision of statistical power analyses. Similarly, whilst the need for good experimental designs was stressed, no minimum guidelines were set for replication or sample sizes. Furthermore, although substantial equivalence was stressed as central to risk assessment, no means of quantification of this concept was given. This paper suggests several ways in which existing guidance might be revised to address these problems. One approach explored is the ;bioequivalence' test, which has the advantage that the error of most concern to the consumer may be set relatively easily. Also, since the burden of proof is placed on the experimenter, the test promotes high-quality, well-replicated experiments with sufficient statistical power. Other recommendations cover the specification of effect sizes, the choice of appropriate comparators, the use of positive controls, meta-analyses, multivariate analysis and diversity indices. Specific guidance is suggested for experimental designs of field trials and their statistical analyses. A checklist for experimental design is proposed to accompany all environmental risk assessments.

Human-mediated dispersal of seeds over long distances.

Human activities have fundamental impacts on the distribution of species through altered land use, but also directly by dispersal of propagules. Rare long-distance dispersal events have a disproportionate importance for the spread of species including invasions. While it is widely accepted that humans may act as vectors of long-distance dispersal, there are few studies that quantify this process. We studied in detail a mechanism of human-mediated dispersal (HMD). For two plant species we measured, over a wide range of distances, how many seeds are carried by humans on shoes. While over half of the seeds fell off within 5m, seeds were regularly still attached to shoes after 5 km. Semi-mechanistic models were fitted, and these suggested that long-distance dispersal on shoes is facilitated by decreasing seed detachment probability with distance. Mechanistic modelling showed that the primary vector, wind, was less important as an agent of long-distance dispersal, dispersing seeds less than 250 m. Full dispersal kernels were derived by combining the models for primary dispersal by wind and secondary dispersal by humans. These suggest that walking humans can disperse seeds to very long distances, up to at least 10 km, and provide some of the first quantified dispersal kernels for HMD.

Host mediated selection of pathogen genotypes as a mechanism for the maintenance of baculovirus diversity in the field.

The genetic diversity of many DNA virus populations in nature is unknown, but for those that have been studied it has been found to be relatively high. This is particularly true for baculoviruses, a family of large double-stranded DNA viruses that infect the larval stages of insects. Why there should be such heterogeneity within these virus populations is puzzling and what sustains it is still unknown. It has long been recognized that some baculoviruses have a relatively wide host range, but the effect of different host species on the genotypic structure of a baculovirus population has received little attention. We provide evidence that infection of different insect species can influence the genetic diversity of a Panolis flammea nucleopolyhedrovirus (PaflNPV) population, isolated from the pine beauty moth. Variable regions of the PaflNPV genome were sequenced and novel ORFs were identified on each of the enlarged fragments. The roles of these orfs and the implications of their presence or absence within different genotypes are discussed. The variable fragments were also labelled with 32P and used as polymorphic genetic markers of genotype abundance. The proportion of polymorphic loci changed after passage in different insect species and this varied among species, suggesting a role for host selection of pathogen genotypes in the field as a mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity. These results have wide-ranging implications for understanding the ecology of insect-virus interactions in the natural environment and the evolution of baculovirus life history strategies.

An antivector vaccine protects against a lethal vector-borne pathogen.

Vaccines that target blood-feeding disease vectors, such as mosquitoes and ticks, have the potential to protect against the many diseases caused by vector-borne pathogens. We tested the ability of an anti-tick vaccine derived from a tick cement protein (64TRP) of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus to protect mice against tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmitted by infected Ixodes ricinus ticks. The vaccine has a "dual action" in immunized animals: when infested with ticks, the inflammatory and immune responses first disrupt the skin feeding site, resulting in impaired blood feeding, and then specific anti-64TRP antibodies cross-react with midgut antigenic epitopes, causing rupture of the tick midgut and death of engorged ticks. Three parameters were measured: "transmission," number of uninfected nymphal ticks that became infected when cofeeding with an infected adult female tick; "support," number of mice supporting virus transmission from the infected tick to cofeeding uninfected nymphs; and "survival," number of mice that survived infection by tick bite and subsequent challenge by intraperitoneal inoculation of a lethal dose of TBEV. We show that one dose of the 64TRP vaccine protects mice against lethal challenge by infected ticks; control animals developed a fatal viral encephalitis. The protective effect of the 64TRP vaccine was comparable to that of a single dose of a commercial TBEV vaccine, while the transmission-blocking effect of 64TRP was better than that of the antiviral vaccine in reducing the number of animals supporting virus transmission. By contrast, the commercial antitick vaccine (TickGARD) that targets only the tick's midgut showed transmission-blocking activity but was not protective. The 64TRP vaccine demonstrates the potential to control vector-borne disease by interfering with pathogen transmission, apparently by mediating a local cutaneous inflammatory immune response at the tick-feeding site.

A cross-reactive tick cement antigen is a candidate broad-spectrum tick vaccine.

Truncated constructs of 64P (64TRPs), a secreted cement protein from salivary glands of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, provided cross-protection against Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ixodes ricinus, apparently by targeting antigens in the midgut and salivary glands of adults and nymphs, causing mortality. Tick feeding on 64TRP-immunised animals stimulated local inflammatory immune responses (involving basophils, eosinophils, lymphocytes, mast cells, macrophages and dendritic-like cells) that boosted the immune status of vaccinated animals. The vaccine trial results, and antigenic cross-reactivity of 64TRPs with R. sanguineus, I. ricinus, Amblyomma variegatum and Boophilus microplus, indicate the potential of 64TRPs as a broad-spectrum anti-tick vaccine.

Differential crop damage by healthy and nucleopolyhedrovirus-infected Mamestra brassicae L. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae: a field examination.

Baculovirus infection in Lepidoptera can alter both larval mobility and feeding rates, which can in turn affect pathogen transmission and dispersal in the field. We compared the damage to cabbage plants in the field caused by healthy and nucleopolyhedrovirus-infected Mamestra brassicae L. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) larvae released as second and fourth instars. There was no significant difference in plant consumption by healthy and infected larvae for the first 4 days after release. From day 5 onwards, infected larvae caused significantly less defoliation. This pattern was similar for larvae at both larval instars. Defoliation was greater for fourth instars throughout the experiment.

The role of food plant and pathogen-induced behaviour in the persistence of a nucleopolyhedrovirus.

Insect baculoviruses can survive between epidemics as infectious particles external to the host. Many pathogens persist in reservoirs, i.e., microhabitats where survival is enhanced, for example due to protection from the degrading effects of UV irradiation. However, the probability of infecting new susceptible hosts is usually reduced. Persistence of pathogens and their movement in and out of reservoirs is an important, albeit little understood, aspect of insect pathogen ecology. This study investigated interactions between the behaviour of infected insect hosts, virus distribution and plant species on the persistence of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) nucleopolyhedrovirus. Habitat influenced the persistence of infectious baculovirus in the field: virus on Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) and oak (Quercus robur) in forested areas retained more infectivity than virus on heather (Calluna vulgaris) in an unshaded habitat. Plant species per se did not directly affect the persistence of virus on the foliage of potted seedlings. Virally infected insects had altered behaviour and moved down plants relative to control insects, whereas in other systems larvae show height-seeking behaviour. Consequently, the majority of virus particles were distributed on plant stems. In two experiments (one using winter moth NPV and one Mamestra brassicae NPV) virus persisted better on plant stems relative to foliage. Neonate larvae were shown to be able to acquire infections from tree stems contaminated with a low level of virus. These data suggest that plant stems may be important reservoirs for between-year persistence of this pathogen. The observed virus-induced changes in host behaviour in winter moth could enhance the viral persistence by increasing the deposition of occlusion bodies in these reservoirs.

Genes invading new populations: a risk assessment perspective.

One of the concerns raised over the introduction of genetically modified crops is that transgenes will invade populations of wild relatives, causing ecologically significant changes in fitness. In recent years, this has given rise to several studies estimating hybridization rates and the fitness of crop-wild relative hybrids. These studies have established that transgenes are likely to move to F1 hybrids, albeit at low frequency. Hybridization, however, is not synonymous with introgression, and questions remain as to whether particular transgenes will cause ecologically significant changes in recipient plant populations. Research effort should now focus on estimating any changes in the fitness of a population as a consequence of having a transgene, understanding genotype x environment interactions, and deducing the extent to which pathogens and herbivores (transgene targets) regulate wild relative populations. This will involve a combination of manipulative experiments and empirically motivated mathematical models.

Bioethics for technology?

Ethical concerns about biotechnology continue to be debated in the scientific and popular press. Ethical considerations have led to the development of frameworks within which biotechnology can be developed in socially acceptable and desirable ways: through legislation, the development of public-private collaborations, and regimes that safeguard consumer choice.

The GM public debate: context and communication strategies.

Science communication is developing a new approach that promotes dialogue between scientists and the public. A recent example is the debate on the possible introduction of genetically modified crops into the United Kingdom. As this exercise in public engagement draws to a close, we consider the context in which this debate has taken place, and the challenges of developing such interactions between science and society.

Association of Borrelia garinii and B. valaisiana with songbirds in Slovakia.

In Europe, 6 of the 11 genospecies of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato are prevalent in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks. In most parts of Central Europe, B. afzelii, B. garinii, and B. valaisiana are the most frequent species, whereas B. burgdorferi sensu stricto, B. bissettii, and B. lusitaniae are rare. Previously, it has been shown that B. afzelii is associated with European rodents. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify reservoir hosts of B. garinii and B. valaisiana in Slovakia. Songbirds were captured in a woodland near Bratislava and investigated for engorged ticks. Questing I. ricinus ticks were collected in the same region. Both tick pools were analyzed for spirochete infections by PCR, followed by DNA-DNA hybridization and, for a subsample, by nucleotide sequencing. Three of the 17 captured songbird species were infested with spirochete-infected ticks. Spirochetes in ticks that had fed on birds were genotyped as B. garinii and B. valaisiana, whereas questing ticks were infected with B. afzelii, B. garinii, and B. valaisiana. Furthermore, identical ospA alleles of B. garinii were found in ticks that had fed on the birds and in questing ticks. The data show that songbirds are reservoir hosts of B. garinii and B. valaisiana but not of B. afzelii. This and previous studies confirm that B. burgdorferi sensu lato is host associated and that this bacterial species complex contains different ecotypes.

Habitat-specific diversity of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Europe, exemplified by data from Latvia.

The distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato genospecies in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks from ecologically distinct habitats in Latvia was analyzed. A significant variation in the frequency of the genospecies across sites was observed, pointing to the importance of the host community in the ecology of Lyme borreliosis.

Dual action ectoparasite vaccine targeting 'exposed' and 'concealed' antigens.

Blood-feeding ectoparasites, such as mosquitoes, sandflies and ticks, transmit many disease agents. Their control relies on large-scale, repeated use of chemical pesticides. An alternative, targeted and environmentally friendly approach is to develop anti-ectoparasite vaccines. We describe a vaccine to control ticks that targets an 'exposed' tick saliva antigen and cross-reacts with 'concealed' tick midgut antigens. Ticks feeding on immunised animals induced a cutaneous inflammatory response and increased antibody titer, while engorged ticks died following damage to their midgut. This dual action, acting at the feeding site and in the midgut, offers a self-sustaining strategy for ectoparasite control boosted by natural infestations.