Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New IPUMS Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data.

The U. S. fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation's development, but it also took place long before the nation's mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830-1880 and test the results with a subset of couples linked between the 1850-1860, 1860-1870, and 1870-1880 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early U.S. fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity tradeoff, and life-cycle savings theories.

Inequality among industrial workers in the late 19th century United States.

This paper uses the large cross sectional survey of 8544 workers in nine industries (pig iron, bar iron, steel, coal, coke, cottons, woolens, and glass) in the United States and five European countries (Belgium, Great Britain, France, Belgium, and Switzerland) to examine inequality in the industrial working class in the late nineteenth century. The paper looks at incomes, the food budget share (estimated using the Almost Ideal Demand System), and home ownership. The results show regular gradients with the unskilled workers doing less well than semi-skilled and skilled workers. Despite the lack of proprietors, farmers, and other groups with significant income from property, such surveys can be useful in the study of the historical aspects of inequality.

Did African Americans experience the 'Antebellum Puzzle'? Evidence from the United States Colored Troops during the Civil War.

The "Antebellum Puzzle" has been the subject of comment since the 1980s. It involves the paradox that, although the American economy was experiencing rapid economic growth in the several decades prior to the Civil War (1861-1865), the stature of native-born white males had been declining for the birth cohorts from the late 1820s. This was also true for free blacks (Komlos, 1992), but was apparently not true for slaves. This paper uses a sample of 8592 adult back males who were recruits to the United States Colored Troops during the Civil War. They were recruited significantly among ex-slaves. Recruits from the birth cohorts of 1838-1842 were then linked to characteristics of their counties of birth from the 1840 and 1850 U.S. Censuses. Unlike slaves in the coastal manifests, these African American recruits showed evidence of a decline in heights from the birth cohorts of the 1820s onwards. Unlike the native-white recruits, however, the characteristics of their counties of birth had relatively less power in explaining differences in heights. There was some support for the mortality hypothesis, but the nutrition hypothesis needs to be interpreted in light of the fact that slave owners has a strong interest in monitoring and controlling the diet of their slaves.

"Can breast feeding help you in later life? Evidence from German military heights in the early 20th century".

Considerable literature exists on the benefits of breast feeding on the health and survival of infants and young children, but there is less on the effects on later life outcomes. One such measure of health and well-being that has received attention in the historical literature is terminal adult stature. Information on height is rather widely available; however, it is much more difficult to obtain data on breast feeding. One country that does have such information is Imperial Germany (1871-1919). A number of physicians and local health officials collected information on the incidence and duration of breast feeding early in the 20th century, particularly because of concern about the unusually high infant mortality rates in parts of Germany. Hallie Kintner has surveyed the published results of these studies. The information on the prevalence of breast feeding for the period 1903/10 has been inputed into a database of demographic and economic variables for the counties (Regierungsbezirke) of Germany (1850-1939). There are also published data on heights of military recruits from the Imperial German military forces in 1906. These can be linked to areas in the database and related to breast feeding practices and infant mortality both contemporaneously and approximately 20 years previous to 1906. Results indicate a significant effect of infant feeding practices on later life outcomes operating through infant health conditions, proxied by the infant mortality rate.

Fertility in New York State in the pre-Civil War era.

Knowledge is quite limited about the extent and social correlates of marital fertility decline for the United States in the early part of the nineteenth century. Manuscripts from the New York State census of 1865 indicate a very slow decline in marital fertility during the initial decades of the nineteenth century and more rapid decline as the Civil War approached. Little evidence of fertility control within marriage is found for the very oldest women in the sample, but analysis of parity progression ratios indicates that some control had emerged by the midpoint of the nineteenth century. Fertility decline was most evident in the urban, more economically developed areas, but our data also indicate that the limited availability of agricultural land may have affected the transition. While a marital fertility transition occurred in nineteenth-century New York, many couples in various geographic areas and social strata continued to have quite high levels of fertility, indicating difficulties that were probably faced in controlling reproduction.