Using Machine-Learning to Assess the Prognostic Value of Early Enteral Feeding Intolerance in Critically Ill Patients: A Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The association between gastrointestinal intolerance during early enteral nutrition (EN) and adverse clinical outcomes in critically ill patients is controversial. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of enteral feeding intolerance (EFI) markers during early ICU stays and to predict early EN failure using a machine learning (ML) approach. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of data from adult patients admitted to Beilinson Hospital ICU between January 2011 and December 2018 for more than 48 h and received EN. Clinical data, including demographics, severity scores, EFI markers, and medications, along with 72 h after admission, were analyzed by ML algorithms. Prediction performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUCROC) of a ten-fold cross-validation set. RESULTS: The datasets comprised 1584 patients. The means of the cross-validation AUCROCs for 90-day mortality and early EN failure were 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.74), respectively. Gastric residual volume above 250 mL on the second day was an important component of both prediction models. CONCLUSIONS: ML underlined the EFI markers that predict poor 90-day outcomes and early EN failure and supports early recognition of at-risk patients. Results have to be confirmed in further prospective and external validation studies.

Prediction model for the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak in the global environment.

COVID-19 has long become a worldwide pandemic. It is responsible for the death of over two million people and posed an economic recession. This paper studies the spread pattern of COVID-19, aiming to establish a prediction model for this event. We harness Data Mining and Machine Learning methodologies to train regression models to predict the number of confirmed cases in a spatial-temporal space. We introduce an innovative concept ‒ the Center of Infection Mass (CoIM) ‒ adapted from the field of physics. We empirically evaluated our model on western European countries, based on the CoIM index and other features, and showed that a relatively high accurate prediction of the spread can be obtained. Our contribution is twofold: first, we introduced a prediction methodology and proved empirically that a prediction can be made even to the range of over a month; second, we showed promise in adopting the CoIM index to prediction models, when models that adopt the CoIM yield significantly better results than those that discard it. By applying our model, and better controlling the inherent tradeoff between life-saving and economy, we believe that decision-makers can take close to optimal measures. Thus, this methodology may contribute to public welfare.

A Crowdsourcing Framework for Medical Data Sets.

Crowdsourcing services like Amazon Mechanical Turk allow researchers to ask questions to crowds of workers and quickly receive high quality labeled responses. However, crowds drawn from the general public are not suitable for labeling sensitive and complex data sets, such as medical records, due to various concerns. Major challenges in building and deploying a crowdsourcing system for medical data include, but are not limited to: managing access rights to sensitive data and ensuring data privacy controls are enforced; identifying workers with the necessary expertise to analyze complex information; and efficiently retrieving relevant information in massive data sets. In this paper, we introduce a crowdsourcing framework to support the annotation of medical data sets. We further demonstrate a workflow for crowdsourcing clinical chart reviews including (1) the design and decomposition of research questions; (2) the architecture for storing and displaying sensitive data; and (3) the development of tools to support crowd workers in quickly analyzing information from complex data sets.