Morocco's population contact matrices: A crowd dynamics-based approach using aggregated literature data.

Estimation of contact patterns is often based on questionnaires and time-use data. The results obtained using these methods have been used extensively over the years and recently to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also been used to test the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distance. The latter is integrated into epidemiological models by multiplying contact matrices by control functions. We present a novel method that allows the integration of social distancing and other scenarios such as panic. Our method is based on a modified social force model. The model is calibrated using data relating to the movements of individuals and their interactions such as desired walking velocities and interpersonal distances as well as demographic data. We used the framework to assess contact patterns in different social contexts in Morocco. The estimated matrices are extremely assortative and exhibit patterns similar to those observed in other studies including the POLYMOD project. Our findings suggest social distancing would reduce the numbers of contacts by 95%. Further, we estimated the effect of panic on contact patterns, which indicated an increase in the number of contacts of 11%. This approach could be an alternative to questionnaire-based methods in the study of non-pharmaceutical measures and other specific scenarios such as rush hours. It also provides a substitute for estimating children's contact patterns which are typically assessed through parental proxy reporting in surveys.

Modeling the impact of distancing measures on infectious disease spread: a case study of COVID-19 in the Moroccan population.

This paper explores the impact of various distancing measures on the spread of infectious diseases, focusing on the spread of COVID-19 in the Moroccan population as a case study. Contact matrices, generated through a social force model, capture population interactions within distinct activity locations and age groups. These matrices, tailored for each distancing scenario, have been incorporated into an SEIR model. The study models the region as a network of interconnected activity locations, enabling flexible analysis of the effects of different distancing measures within social contexts and between age groups. Additionally, the method assesses the influence of measures targeting potential superspreaders (i.e., agents with a very high contact rate) and explores the impact of inter-activity location flows, providing insights beyond scalar contact rates or survey-based contact matrices. The results suggest that implementing intra-activity location distancing measures significantly reduces in the number of infected individuals relative to the act of imposing restrictions on individuals with a high contact rate in each activity location. The combination of both measures proves more advantageous. On a regional scale, characterized as a network of interconnected activity locations, restrictions on the movement of individuals with high contact rates was found to result in a $ 2 \% $ reduction, while intra-activity location-based distancing measures was found to achieve a $ 44 \% $ reduction. The combination of these two measures yielded a $ 48\% $ reduction.

Characterization of superspreaders movement in a bidirectional corridor using a social force model.

During infectious disease outbreaks, some infected individuals may spread the disease widely and amplify risks in the community. People whose daily activities bring them in close proximity to many others can unknowingly become superspreaders. The use of contact tracking based on social networks, GPS, or mobile tracking data can help to identify superspreaders and break the chain of transmission. We propose a model that aims at providing insight into risk factors of superspreading events. Here, we use a social force model to estimate the superspreading potential of individuals walking in a bidirectional corridor. First, we applied the model to identify parameters that favor exposure to an infectious person in scattered crowds. We find that low walking speed and high body mass both increase the expected number of close exposures. Panic events exacerbate the risks while social distancing reduces both the number and duration of close encounters. Further, in dense crowds, pedestrians interact more and cannot easily maintain the social distance between them. The number of exposures increases with the density of person in the corridor. The study of movements reveals that individuals walking toward the center of the corridor tend to rotate and zigzag more than those walking along the edges, and thus have higher risks of superspreading. The corridor model can be applied to designing risk reduction measures for specific high volume venues, including transit stations, stadiums, and schools.

A new method for the extraction of fetal ECG from the dependent abdominal signals using blind source separation and adaptive noise cancellation techniques.

BACKGROUND: The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a diagnostic tool that records the electrical activity of the heart, and depicts it as a series of graph-like tracings, or waves. Being able to interpret these details allows diagnosis of a wide range of heart problems. Fetal electrocardiogram (FECG) extraction has an important impact in medical diagnostics during the mother pregnancy period. Since the observed FECG signals are often mixed with the maternal ECG (MECG) and the noise induced by the movement of electrodes or by mother motion, the separation process of the ECG signal sources from the observed data becomes quite complicated. One of its complexity is when the ECG sources are dependent, thus, in this paper we introduce a new approach of blind source separation (BSS) in the noisy context for both independent and dependent ECG signal source. This approach consist in denoising the observed ECG signals using a bilateral total variation (BTV) filter; then minimizing the Kullbak-Leibler divergence between copula densities to separate the FECG signal from the MECG one. RESULTS: We present simulation results illustrating the performance of our proposed method. We will consider many examples of independent/dependent source component signals. The results will be compared with those of the classical method called independent component analysis (ICA) under the same conditions. The accuracy of source estimation is evaluated through a criterion, called again the signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). The first experiment shows that our proposed method gives accurate estimation of sources in the standard case of independent components, with performance around 27 dB in term of SNR. In the second experiment, we show the capability of the proposed algorithm to successfully separate two noisy mixtures of dependent source components - with classical criterion devoted to the independent case - fails, and that our method is able to deal with the dependent case with good performance. CONCLUSIONS: In this work, we focus specifically on the separation of the ECG signal sources taken from skin two electrodes located on a pregnant woman's body. The ECG separation is interpreted as a noisy linear BSS problem with instantaneous mixtures. Firstly, a denoising step is required to reduce the noise due to motion artifacts using a BTV filter as a very effective one-pass filter for denoising. Then, we use the Kullbak-Leibler divergence between copula densities to separate the fetal heart rate from the mother one, for both independent and dependent cases.