Air quality modeling for policy development.

Atmospheric models constitute the best tools available for the setting of policy, and may, in some cases, be the only tools that are available. The best examples of their kind bring together all current knowledge of pollutant behavior in the atmosphere, making it possible to unravel the often complex interactions between pollutants and atmospheric dynamics. They also allow the possibility of evaluating hypothetical changes in emissions and other conditions to evaluate potential abatement strategies, or to assess the impact of proposed new emission sources. This paper provides an overview of mathematical atmospheric models and their application to the development of air quality policy. The paper discusses the types of atmospheric models currently in use, categorized by spatial scale, and the requirements for credible modeling. Issues associated with model validity and accuracy are described and case studies are reviewed to illustrate atmospheric model use in policy development and the need for careful analysis in interpreting model predictions.

Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment.

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.

NARSTO fine-particle and ozone assessments.

NARSTO, a tri-national North American consortium for applied tropospheric pollution research, conducts periodic assessments of air-pollution behavior to provide an information interface between the research community and individuals working in policy analysis and air-quality management. The first of these, entitled An Assessment of Tropospheric Ozone Pollution--A North American Perspective, appeared in late 2000 and has been circulated widely throughout the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and South America. The second (currently) entitled NARSTO Assessment of the Atmospheric Science on Particulate Matter, is presently in its third-draft phase and is available for general review. A fourth draft, incorporating comments from the current review stage, will be submitted in January 2002 to a tri-national review committee composed of the Canadian Royal Society, the US National Academy of Sciences, and the Mexican Red de Desarrollo e Investigación de la Calidad del Aire en Grandes Ciudades. Finalization of the document will follow this review, which will conclude in July 2000. Publication is expected in December 2002. These two assessments contain substantial amounts of policy-relevant information, which is of interest to the research community as well as those working in policy analysis and air-quality management. This presentation provides a brief overview of features and findings of the two documents.