Combined oil spill modelling and shoreline sensitivity analysis for contingency planning in the Irish Sea.

Offshore oil spills often result in severe environmental and socio-economic consequences. This work focuses on a busy, yet poorly studied part of NW Europe, the Irish Sea, to assess the impact of future oil spills on the nearby coast. By integrating numerical models and shoreline sensitivity analyses for two confined areas, Liverpool Bay and Milford Haven, this work acknowledges wind direction and speed as principal controls on the movement of oil under winter/storm conditions and in shallow waters. Ocean currents play a secondary role, but are significant in deeper waters and in low-wind summer conditions. The temporal elements used in the modelling thus stress that when the spill occurs is just as important as where. As a corollary, the fate of spilled oil is determined in this work for distinct scenarios and types. Response strategies are recommended to minimise the impact of future spills on coastal populations.

Modelling soil erosion responses to climate change in three catchments of Great Britain.

Simulations of 21st century climate change for Great Britain predict increased seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss by increasing surface runoff. Land use and different vegetation cover can respond differently to this scenario, mitigating or enhancing soil erosion. Here, by means of a sensitivity analysis of the PESERA soil erosion model, we test the potential for climate and vegetation to impact soil loss by surface-runoff to three differentiated British catchments. First, to understand general behaviours, we modelled soil erosion adopting regular increments for rainfall and temperature from the baseline values (1961-1990). Then, we tested future climate scenarios adopting projections from UKCP09 (UK Climate Projections) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on a defined medium CO2 emissions scenario, SRES-A1B (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), at the horizons 2010-39, 2040-69 and 2070-99. Our results indicate that the model reacts to the changes of the climatic parameters and the three catchments respond differently depending on their land use arrangement. Increases in rainfall produce a rise in soil erosion while higher temperatures tend to lower the process because of the mitigating action of the vegetation. Even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion by enhancing primary productivity and in turn improving leaf interception, infiltration-capacity, and reducing soil erodibility. Consequently, for specific land uses, the increase in air temperature associated with climate change can modify the rainfall thresholds to generate soil loss, and soil erosion rates could decline by up to about 33% from 2070 to 2099. We deduce that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism limiting soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset the effects of increased precipitation. The expansion of permanent vegetation cover could provide an adaptation strategy to reduce climate-driven soil loss.

A lithospheric instability origin for Columbia River flood basalts and Wallowa Mountains uplift in northeast Oregon.

Flood basalts appear to form during the initiation of hotspot magmatism. The Columbia River basalts (CRB) represent the largest volume of flood basalts associated with the Yellowstone hotspot, yet their source appears to be in the vicinity of the Wallowa Mountains, about 500 km north of the projected hotspot track. These mountains are composed of a large granitic pluton intruded into a region of oceanic lithosphere affinity. The elevation of the interface between Columbia River basalts and other geological formations indicates that mild pre-eruptive subsidence took place in the Wallowa Mountains, followed by syn-eruptive uplift of several hundred metres and a long-term uplift of about 2 km. The mapped surface uplift mimics regional topography, with the Wallowa Mountains in the centre of a 'bull's eye' pattern of valleys and low-elevation mountains. Here we present the seismic velocity structure of the mantle underlying this region and erosion-corrected elevation maps of lava flows, and show that an area of reduced mantle melt content coincides with the 200-km-wide topographic uplift. We conclude that convective downwelling and detachment of a compositionally dense plutonic root can explain the timing and magnitude of Columbia River basalt magmatism, as well as the surface uplift and existence of the observed melt-depleted mantle.

Advances in random matrix theory, zeta functions, and sphere packing.

Over four hundred years ago, Sir Walter Raleigh asked his mathematical assistant to find formulas for the number of cannonballs in regularly stacked piles. These investigations aroused the curiosity of the astronomer Johannes Kepler and led to a problem that has gone centuries without a solution: why is the familiar cannonball stack the most efficient arrangement possible? Here we discuss the solution that Hales found in 1998. Almost every part of the 282-page proof relies on long computer verifications. Random matrix theory was developed by physicists to describe the spectra of complex nuclei. In particular, the statistical fluctuations of the eigenvalues ("the energy levels") follow certain universal laws based on symmetry types. We describe these and then discuss the remarkable appearance of these laws for zeros of the Riemann zeta function (which is the generating function for prime numbers and is the last special function from the last century that is not understood today.) Explaining this phenomenon is a central problem. These topics are distinct, so we present them separately with their own introductory remarks.