Pathways linking nutrient enrichment, habitat structure, and parasitism to host-resource interactions.

Human activities simultaneously alter nutrient levels, habitat structure, and levels of parasitism. These activities likely have individual and joint impacts on food webs. Furthermore, there is particular concern that nutrient additions and changes to habitat structure might exacerbate the size of epidemics and impacts on host density. We used a well-studied zooplankton-fungus host-parasite system and experimental whole water column enclosures to factorially manipulate nutrient levels, habitat structure (specifically: mixing), and presence of parasites. Nutrient addition increased infection prevalence, density of infected hosts, and total host density. We hypothesized that nutrients, mixing, and parasitism were linked in multiple ways, including via their combined effects on phytoplankton (resource) abundance, and we used structural equation modeling to disentangle these pathways. In the absence of the parasite, both nutrients and mixing increased abundance of phytoplankton, whereas host density was negatively related to phytoplankton abundance, suggesting a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control of phytoplankton. In the presence of the parasite, nutrients still increased phytoplankton abundance but mixing no longer did, and there was no longer a significant relationship between host density and phytoplankton. This decoupling of host-resource dynamics may have resulted from reduced grazing due to illness-mediated changes in feeding behavior. Overall, our results show that the impact of one human activity (e.g., altered habitat structure) might depend on other human impacts (e.g., parasite introduction). Fortunately, carefully designed experiments and analyses can help tease apart these multifaceted relationships, allowing us to understand how human activities alter food webs, including interactions between hosts and their parasites and resources.

"Resistance Is Futile": Weaker Selection for Resistance by Abundant Parasites Increases Prevalence and Depresses Host Density.

AbstractTheory often predicts that host populations should evolve greater resistance when parasites become abundant. Furthermore, that evolutionary response could ameliorate declines in host populations during epidemics. Here, we argue for an update: when all host genotypes become sufficiently infected, higher parasite abundance can select for lower resistance because its cost exceeds its benefit. We illustrate such a "resistance is futile" outcome with mathematical and empirical approaches. First, we analyzed an eco-evolutionary model of parasites, hosts, and hosts' resources. We determined eco-evolutionary outcomes for prevalence, host density, and resistance (mathematically, "transmission rate") along ecological and trait gradients that alter parasite abundance. With high enough parasite abundance, hosts evolve lower resistance, amplifying infection prevalence and decreasing host density. In support of these results, a higher supply of nutrients drove larger epidemics of survival-reducing fungal parasites in a mesocosm experiment. In two-genotype treatments, zooplankton hosts evolved less resistance under high-nutrient conditions than under low-nutrient conditions. Less resistance, in turn, was associated with higher infection prevalence and lower host density. Finally, in an analysis of naturally occurring epidemics, we found a broad, bimodal distribution of epidemic sizes consistent with the resistance is futile prediction of the eco-evolutionary model. Together, the model and experiment, supplemented by the field pattern, support predictions that drivers of high parasite abundance can lead to the evolution of lower resistance. Hence, under certain conditions, the most fit strategy for individual hosts exacerbates prevalence and depresses host populations.

A healthy but depleted herd: Predators decrease prey disease and density.

The healthy herds hypothesis proposes that predators can reduce parasite prevalence and thereby increase the density of their prey. However, evidence for such predator-driven reductions in the prevalence of prey remains mixed. Furthermore, even less evidence supports increases in prey density during epidemics. Here, we used a planktonic predator-prey-parasite system to experimentally test the healthy herds hypothesis. We manipulated density of a predator (the phantom midge, Chaoborus punctipennis) and parasitism (the virulent fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in experimental assemblages. Because we know natural populations of the prey (Daphnia dentifera) vary in susceptibility to both predator and parasite, we stocked experimental populations with nine genotypes spanning a broad range of susceptibility to both enemies. Predation significantly reduced infection prevalence, eliminating infection at the highest predation level. However, lower parasitism did not increase densities of prey; instead, prey density decreased substantially at the highest predation levels (a major density cost of healthy herds predation). This density result was predicted by a model parameterized for this system. The model specifies three conditions for predation to increase prey density during epidemics: (i) predators selectively feed on infected prey, (ii) consumed infected prey release fewer infectious propagules than unconsumed prey, and (iii) sufficiently low infection prevalence. While the system satisfied the first two conditions, prevalence remained too high to see an increase in prey density with predation. Low prey densities caused by high predation drove increases in algal resources of the prey, fueling greater reproduction, indicating that consumer-resource interactions can complicate predator-prey-parasite dynamics. Overall, in our experiment, predation reduced the prevalence of a virulent parasite but, at the highest levels, also reduced prey density. Hence, while healthy herds predation is possible under some conditions, our empirical results make it clear that the manipulation of predators to reduce parasite prevalence may harm prey density.

Niche theory for within-host parasite dynamics: Analogies to food web modules via feedback loops.

Why do parasites exhibit a wide dynamical range within their hosts? For instance, why does infecting dose either lead to infection or immune clearance? Why do some parasites exhibit boom-bust, oscillatory dynamics? What maintains parasite diversity, that is coinfection v single infection due to exclusion or priority effects? For insights on parasite dose, dynamics and diversity governing within-host infection, we turn to niche models. An omnivory food web model (IGP) blueprints one parasite competing with immune cells for host energy (PIE). Similarly, a competition model (keystone predation, KP) mirrors a new coinfection model (2PIE). We then drew analogies between models using feedback loops. The following three points arise: first, like in IGP, parasites oscillate when longer loops through parasites, immune cells and resource regulate parasite growth. Shorter, self-limitation loops (involving resources and enemies) stabilise those oscillations. Second, IGP can produce priority effects that resemble immune clearance. But, despite comparable loop structure, PIE cannot due to constraints imposed by production of immune cells. Third, despite somewhat different loop structure, KP and 2PIE share apparent and resource competition mechanisms that produce coexistence (coinfection) or priority effects of prey or parasites. Together, this mechanistic niche framework for within-host dynamics offers new perspective to improve individual health.

Virulent Disease Epidemics Can Increase Host Density by Depressing Foraging of Hosts.

AbstractAll else equal, parasites that harm host fitness should depress densities of their hosts. However, parasites that alter host traits may increase host density via indirect ecological interactions. Here, we show how depression of foraging rate of infected hosts can produce such a hydra effect. Using a foraging assay, we quantified reduced foraging rates of a zooplankton host infected with a virulent fungal parasite. We then parameterized a dynamical model of hosts, parasites, and resources with this foraging function, showing how foraging depression can create a hydra effect. Mathematically, the hydra arose when increased resource productivity exceeded any increase in resource consumption per host. Therefore, the foraging-mediated hydra effect more likely emerged (1) for hosts that strongly control logistic-like resources and (2) during larger epidemics of moderately virulent parasites. We then analyzed epidemics from 13 fungal epidemics in nature. We found evidence for a foraging-mediated hydra effect: large outbreaks depressed foraging rate and correlated with increased densities of both algal resources and Daphnia hosts. Therefore, depression of the foraging rate of infected hosts can produce higher host densities even during epidemics of parasites that increase host mortality. Such hydras might prevent the collapse of host populations but also could produce higher densities of infected hosts.

Genotypic variation in an ecologically important parasite is associated with host species, lake and spore size.

Genetic variation in parasites has important consequences for host­parasite interactions. Prior studies of the ecologically important parasite Metschnikowia bicuspidata have suggested low genetic variation in the species. Here, we collected M. bicuspidata from two host species (Daphnia dentifera and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and two regions (Michigan and Indiana, USA). Within a lake, outbreaks tended to occur in one host species but not the other. Using microsatellite markers, we identified six parasite genotypes grouped within three distinct clades, one of which was rare. Of the two main clades, one was generally associated with D. dentifera, with lakes in both regions containing a single genotype. The other M. bicuspidata clade was mainly associated with C. dubia, with a different genotype dominating in each region. Despite these associations, both D. dentifera- and C. dubia-associated genotypes were found infecting both hosts in lakes. However, in lab experiments, the D. dentifera-associated genotype infected both D. dentifera and C. dubia, but the C. dubia-associated genotype, which had spores that were approximately 30% smaller, did not infect D. dentifera. We hypothesize that variation in spore size might help explain patterns of cross-species transmission. Future studies exploring the causes and consequences of variation in spore size may help explain patterns of infection and the maintenance of genotypic diversity in this ecologically important system.

Parasite exposure and host susceptibility jointly drive the emergence of epidemics.

Parasite transmission is thought to depend on both parasite exposure and host susceptibility to infection; however, the relative contribution of these two factors to epidemics remains unclear. We used interactions between an aquatic host and its fungal parasite to evaluate how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to drive epidemics. In six lakes, we tracked the following factors from pre-epidemic to epidemic emergence: (1) parasite exposure (measured observationally as fungal spores attacking wild-caught hosts), (2) host susceptibility (measured experimentally as the number of fungal spores required to produce terminal infection), (3) host susceptibility traits (barrier resistance and internal clearance, both quantified with experimental assays), and (4) parasite prevalence (measured observationally from wild-caught hosts). Tracking these factors over 6 months and in almost 7,000 wild-caught hosts provided key information on the drivers of epidemics. We found that epidemics depended critically on the interaction of exposure and susceptibility; epidemics only emerged when a host population's level of exposure exceeded its individuals' capacity for recovery. Additionally, we found that host internal clearance traits (the hemocyte response) were critical in regulating epidemics. Our study provides an empirical demonstration of how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to inhibit or drive disease in natural systems and demonstrates that epidemics can be delayed by asynchronicity in the two processes. Finally, our results highlight how individual host traits can scale up to influence broad epidemiological patterns.

Shedding light on environmentally transmitted parasites: lighter conditions within lakes restrict epidemic size.

Parasite fitness depends on a successful journey from one host to another. For parasites that are transmitted environmentally, abiotic conditions might modulate the success of this journey. Here we evaluate how light, a key abiotic factor, influences spatiotemporal patterns of zooplankton disease where light varies seasonally, across lakes, and with depth in a lake. In an in situ experiment using those three sources of variation, we tested sensitivity of spores of two parasites to ambient light. Infectivity of both parasites was lower when exposed to ambient light in comparison to parasites exposed to otherwise similar conditions in the dark. The more sensitive parasite (the fungus, Metschnikowia) was damaged even under lower ambient light during late fall (November). With this differential sensitivity established, we evaluated links between light environment and natural outbreaks in lakes. Consistent with the incubations, epidemics of the less sensitive parasite (the bacterium, Pasteuria) started earlier in the fall (under higher ambient light), and both parasites had smaller outbreaks in more transparent lakes. Overall, light environment may impact the timing and size of disease outbreaks. Outbreaks could thus become exacerbated by human activities that darken waters, including lake browning associated with climate change and eutrophication.

Intraspecific variation in resource use is not explained by population persistence or seasonality.

Populations of generalist grazers often contain genotypes with "powerful" and "efficient" strategies. Powerful genotypes grow rapidly on rich-quality resources, but slowly on poorer-quality ones, while efficient genotypes grow relatively better on poorer resources but cannot exploit richer resources as well. Via a "power-efficiency" trade-off, variation in resource quality could maintain genetic diversity. To evaluate this mechanism, we sampled six populations of the freshwater cladoceran Daphnia pulicaria. In persisting (year-round) populations, Daphnia consume resources that vary in quality, whereas in non-persisting (spring-only) populations, Daphnia primarily encounter rich-quality resources. We hypothesized that non-persisting populations harbor no efficient clones (hence should show lower growth on poor-quality resources). Although individuals from non-persisting populations remained smaller than individuals from persisting populations, no evidence arose for a trade-off between powerful and efficient strategies. In fact, growth rates on the two diets were positively correlated (instead of negatively, as predicted). Furthermore, in the persisting populations, we predicted that clonal selection from spring to summer should shift the distribution of genotypes from powerful (specialists on richer spring resources) to efficient (poorer, summer resources). Genetic composition of populations shifted from spring to summer, but not toward more efficient genotypes. Therefore, in these lakes, maintenance of variation among genotypes must stem from more complicated factors than population persistence patterns or seasonal shifts in resource quality alone.

Why Do Phytoplankton Evolve Large Size in Response to Grazing?

Phytoplankton are among the smallest primary producers on Earth, yet they display a wide range of cell sizes. Typically, small phytoplankton species are stronger nutrient competitors than large phytoplankton species, but they are also more easily grazed. In contrast, evolution of large phytoplankton is often explained as a physical defense against grazing. Conceptually, this explanation is problematic, however, because zooplankton can coevolve larger size to counter this size-dependent escape from grazing. Here, we hypothesize that there is another advantage for the evolution of large phytoplankton size not so readily overcome: larger phytoplankton often provide lower nutritional quality for zooplankton. We investigate this hypothesis by analyzing an eco-evolutionary model that combines the ecological stoichiometry of phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions with coevolution of phytoplankton and zooplankton size. In our model, evolution of cell size modifies the nutrient uptake kinetics of phytoplankton according to known allometric relationships, which in turn affect the nutritional quality of phytoplankton. With this size-based mechanism, the model predicts that low grazing pressure or nonselective grazing by zooplankton favors evolution of small phytoplankton cells of high nutritional quality. In contrast, selective grazing for nutritious food favors evolution of large phytoplankton of low nutritional quality, which are preyed on by medium- to large-sized zooplankton. This size-dependent change in food quality may explain the commonly observed shift from dominance by small picophytoplankton in oligotrophic waters with low grazing pressure to large phytoplankton species in nutrient-rich waters with high grazing pressure.

Genotypic variation in parasite avoidance behaviour and other mechanistic, nonlinear components of transmission.

Traditional epidemiological models assume that transmission increases proportionally to the density of parasites. However, empirical data frequently contradict this assumption. General yet mechanistic models can explain why transmission depends nonlinearly on parasite density and thereby identify potential defensive strategies of hosts. For example, hosts could decrease their exposure rates at higher parasite densities (via behavioural avoidance) or decrease their per-parasite susceptibility when encountering more parasites (e.g. via stronger immune responses). To illustrate, we fitted mechanistic transmission models to 19 genotypes of Daphnia dentifera hosts over gradients of the trophically acquired parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata. Exposure rate (foraging, F) frequently decreased with parasite density (Z), and per-parasite susceptibility (U) frequently decreased with parasite encounters (F×Z). Consequently, infection rates (F×U×Z) often peaked at intermediate parasite densities. Moreover, host genotypes varied substantially in these responses. Exposure rates remained constant for some genotypes but decreased sensitively with parasite density for others (up to 78%). Furthermore, genotypes with more sensitive foraging/exposure also foraged faster in the absence of parasites (suggesting 'fast and sensitive' versus 'slow and steady' strategies). These relationships suggest that high densities of parasites can inhibit transmission by decreasing exposure rates and/or per-parasite susceptibility, and identify several intriguing axes for the evolution of host defence.

Variation in Immune Defense Shapes Disease Outcomes in Laboratory and Wild Daphnia.

Host susceptibility may be critical for the spread of infectious disease, and understanding its basis is a goal of ecological immunology. Here, we employed a series of mechanistic tests to evaluate four factors commonly assumed to influence host susceptibility: parasite exposure, barriers to infection, immune responses, and body size. We tested these factors in an aquatic host-parasite system (Daphnia dentifera and the fungal parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata) using both laboratory-reared and field-collected hosts. We found support for each factor as a driver of infection. Elevated parasite exposure, which occurs through consumption of infectious fungal spores, increased a host's probability of infection. The host's gut epithelium functioned as a barrier to infection, but in the opposite manner from which we predicted: thinner anterior gut epithelia were more resistant to infectious spores than thick epithelia. This relationship may be mediated by structural attributes associated with epithelial cell height. Fungal spores that breached the host's gut barrier elicited an intensity-dependent hemocyte response that decreased the probability of infection for some Daphnia. Although larger body sizes were associated with increased levels of spore ingestion, larger hosts also had lower frequencies of parasite attack, less penetrable gut barriers, and stronger hemocyte responses. After investigating which mechanisms underlie host susceptibility, we asked: do these four factors contribute equally or asymmetrically to the outcome of infection? An information-theoretic approach revealed that host immune defenses (barriers and immune responses) played the strongest roles in mediating infection outcomes. These two immunological traits may be valuable metrics for linking host susceptibility to the spread of infectious disease.

Parasite rearing and infection temperatures jointly influence disease transmission and shape seasonality of epidemics.

Seasonal epidemics erupt commonly in nature and are driven by numerous mechanisms. Here, we suggest a new mechanism that could determine the size and timing of seasonal epidemics: rearing environment changes the performance of parasites. This mechanism arises when the environmental conditions in which a parasite is produced impact its performance-independently from the current environment. To illustrate the potential for "rearing effects", we show how temperature influences infection risk (transmission rate) in a Daphnia-fungus disease system through both parasite rearing temperature and infection temperature. During autumnal epidemics, zooplankton hosts contact (eat) fungal parasites (spores) reared in a gradually cooling environment. To delineate the effect of rearing temperature from temperature at exposure and infection, we used lab experiments to parameterize a mechanistic model of transmission rate. We also evaluated the rearing effect using spores collected from epidemics in cooling lakes. We found that fungal spores were more infectious when reared at warmer temperatures (in the lab and in two of three lakes). Additionally, the exposure (foraging) rate of hosts increased with warmer infection temperatures. Thus, both mechanisms cause transmission rate to drop as temperature decreases over the autumnal epidemic season (from summer to winter). Simulations show how these temperature-driven changes in transmission rate can induce waning of epidemics as lakes cool. Furthermore, via thermally dependent transmission, variation in environmental cooling patterns can alter the size and shape of epidemics. Thus, the thermal environment drives seasonal epidemics through effects on hosts (exposure rate) and the infectivity of parasites (a rearing effect). Presently, the generality of parasite rearing effects remains unknown. Our results suggest that they may provide an important but underappreciated mechanism linking temperature to the seasonality of epidemics.

Temperature Drives Epidemics in a Zooplankton-Fungus Disease System: A Trait-Driven Approach Points to Transmission via Host Foraging.

Climatic warming will likely have idiosyncratic impacts on infectious diseases, causing some to increase while others decrease or shift geographically. A mechanistic framework could better predict these different temperature-disease outcomes. However, such a framework remains challenging to develop, due to the nonlinear and (sometimes) opposing thermal responses of different host and parasite traits and due to the difficulty of validating model predictions with observations and experiments. We address these challenges in a zooplankton-fungus (Daphnia dentifera-Metschnikowia bicuspidata) system. We test the hypothesis that warmer temperatures promote disease spread and produce larger epidemics. In lakes, epidemics that start earlier and warmer in autumn grow much larger. In a mesocosm experiment, warmer temperatures produced larger epidemics. A mechanistic model parameterized with trait assays revealed that this pattern arose primarily from the temperature dependence of transmission rate (ß), governed by the increasing foraging (and, hence, parasite exposure) rate of hosts (f). In the trait assays, parasite production seemed sufficiently responsive to shape epidemics as well; however, this trait proved too thermally insensitive in the mesocosm experiment and lake survey to matter much. Thus, in warmer environments, increased foraging of hosts raised transmission rate, yielding bigger epidemics through a potentially general, exposure-based mechanism for ectotherms. This mechanistic approach highlights how a trait-based framework will enhance predictive insight into responses of infectious disease to a warmer world.

Rapid evolution rescues hosts from competition and disease but-despite a dilution effect-increases the density of infected hosts.

Virulent parasites can depress the densities of their hosts. Taxa that reduce disease via dilution effects might alleviate this burden. However, 'diluter' taxa can also depress host densities through competition for shared resources. The combination of disease and interspecific competition could even drive hosts extinct. Then again, genetically variable host populations can evolve in response to both competitors and parasites. Can rapid evolution rescue host density from the harm caused by these ecological enemies? How might such evolution influence dilution effects or the size of epidemics? In a mesocosm experiment with planktonic hosts, we illustrate the joint harm of competition and disease: hosts with constrained evolutionary ability (limited phenotypic variation) suffered greatly from both. However, populations starting with broader phenotypic variation evolved stronger competitive ability during epidemics. In turn, enhanced competitive ability-driven especially by parasites-rescued host densities from the negative impacts of competition, disease, and especially their combination. Interspecific competitors reduced disease (supporting dilution effects) even when hosts rapidly evolved. However, this evolutionary response also elicited a potential problem. Populations that evolved enhanced competitive ability and maintained robust total densities also supported higher densities of infections. Thus, rapid evolution rescued host densities but also unleashed larger epidemics.

Allocation, not male resistance, increases male frequency during epidemics: a case study in facultatively sexual hosts.

Why do natural populations vary in the frequency of sexual reproduction? Virulent parasites may help explain why sex is favored during disease epidemics. To illustrate, we show a higher frequency of males and sexually produced offspring in natural populations of a facultative parthenogenetic host during fungal epidemics. In a multi-year survey of 32 lakes, the frequency of males (an index of sex) was higher in populations of zooplankton hosts with larger epidemics. A lake mesocosm experiment established causality: experimental epidemics produced a higher frequency of males relative to disease-free controls. One common explanation for such a pattern involves Red Queen (RQ) dynamics. However, this particular system lacks key genetic specificity mechanisms required for the RQ, so we evaluated two other hypotheses. First, individual females, when stressed by infection, could increase production of male offspring vs. female offspring (a tenant of the "Abandon Ship" theory). Data from a life table experiment supports this mechanism. Second, higher male frequency during epidemics could reflect a purely demographic process (illustrated with a demographic model): males could resist infection more than females (via size-based differences in resistance and mortality). However, we found no support for this resistance mechanism. A size-based model of resistance, parameterized with data, revealed why: higher male susceptibility negated the lower exposure (a size-based advantage) of males. These results suggest that parasite-mediated increases in allocation to sex by individual females, rather than male resistance, increased the frequency of sex during larger disease epidemics.

Herbivory enhances the diversity of primary producers in pond ecosystems.

Diversity of primary producer is often surprisingly high, despite few limiting factors such as nutrients and light to facilitate species coexistence. In theory, the presence of herbivores could increase the diversity of primary producers, resolving this "paradox of the plankton." Little experimental evidence supports this natural enemies hypothesis, but previous tests suffer from several deficiencies. Previous experiments often did not allow for multigeneration effects; utilized low diversity assemblages of herbivores; and limited opportunities for new primary producer and herbivore species to colonize and undergo species sorting that favors some species over others. Using pond plankton, we designed a mesocosm experiment that overcame these problems by allowing more time for interactions over multiple generations, openness to allow new colonists, and manipulated higher diversity of primary producers and grazers than have previous studies. With this design, the presence of zooplankton grazers doubled phytoplankton richness. The additional phytoplankton species in grazed mesocosms were larger, and therefore likely more grazer resistant. Furthermore, phytoplankton richness in grazed mesocosms was similar to that observed in natural ponds whereas it was much lower in mesocosms without grazers. However, stoichiometric imbalance caused by variation in nitrogen : phosphorus ratios and light supply did not alter phytoplankton richness. Therefore, grazers enhanced primary producer richness more strongly than ratios of nutrient supply (even though both grazing and ratios of resource supply altered composition of primary producer assemblages). Taken together, these experimental and field data show that grazing from a diverse assemblage of herbivores greatly elevated richness of phytoplankton producers in pond ecosystems.

Joint effects of habitat, zooplankton, host stage structure and diversity on amphibian chytrid.

Why does the severity of parasite infection differ dramatically across habitats? This question remains challenging to answer because multiple correlated pathways drive disease. Here, we examined habitat-disease links through direct effects on parasites and indirect effects on parasite predators (zooplankton), host diversity and key life stages of hosts. We used a case study of amphibian hosts and the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, in a set of permanent and ephemeral alpine ponds. A field experiment showed that ultraviolet radiation (UVR) killed the free-living infectious stage of the parasite. Yet, permanent ponds with more UVR exposure had higher infection prevalence. Two habitat-related indirect effects worked together to counteract parasite losses from UVR: (i) UVR reduced the density of parasite predators and (ii) permanent sites fostered multi-season host larvae that fuelled parasite production. Host diversity was unlinked to hydroperiod or UVR but counteracted parasite gains; sites with higher diversity of host species had lower prevalence of infection. Thus, while habitat structure explained considerable variation in infection prevalence through two indirect pathways, it could not account for everything. This study demonstrates the importance of creating mechanistic, food web-based links between multiple habitat dimensions and disease.

Parasites destabilize host populations by shifting stage-structured interactions.

Should parasites stabilize or destabilize consumer-resource dynamics? Recent theory suggests that parasite-enhanced mortality may confer underappreciated stability to their hosts. We tested this hypothesis using disease in zooplankton. Across both natural and experimental epidemics, bigger epidemics correlated with larger--not smaller--host fluctuations. Thus, we tested two mechanistic hypotheses to explain destabilization or apparent destabilization by parasites. First, enrichment could, in principle, simultaneously enhance both instability and disease prevalence. In natural epidemics, destabilization was correlated with enrichment (indexed by total phosphorous). However, an in situ (lake enclosure) experiment did not support these links. Instead, field and experimental results point to a novel destabilizing mechanism involving host stage structure. Epidemics pushed hosts from relatively more stable host dynamics with less-synchronized juveniles and adults to less stable dynamics with more-synchronized juveniles and adults. Our results demonstrate how links between host stage structure and disease can shape host/consumer-resource stability.

Success, failure and ambiguity of the dilution effect among competitors.

It remains challenging to predict variation in the magnitude of disease outbreaks. The dilution effect seeks to explain this variation by linking multiple host species to disease transmission. It predicts that disease risk increases for a focal host when host species diversity declines. However, when an increase in species diversity does not reduce disease, we are often unable to diagnose why. Here, we increase mechanistic and predictive clarity of the dilution effect with a general trait-based model of disease transmission in multi-host communities. Then, we parameterise and empirically test our model with a multi-generational case study of planktonic disease. The model-experiment combination shows that hosts that vary in competitive ability (R*) and potential to spread disease (R0 ) can produce three qualitatively disparate outcomes of dilution on disease: the dilution effect can succeed, fail, or be ambiguous/irrelevant.