Changes in Natriuretic Peptide Levels and Subsequent Kidney Function Decline in SPRINT.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Novel approaches to the assessment of kidney disease risk during hypertension treatment are needed because of the uncertainty of how intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering impacts kidney outcomes. We determined whether longitudinal N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements during hypertension treatment are associated with kidney function decline. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 8,005 SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants with NT-proBNP measurements at baseline and 1 year. EXPOSURE: 1-year change in NT-proBNP categorized as a ≥25% decrease, ≥25% increase, or <25% change (stable). OUTCOME: Annualized change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and ≥30% decrease in eGFR. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Linear mixed-effect and logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent annualized change in eGFR and ≥30% decrease in eGFR, respectively. Analyses were stratified by baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) status. RESULTS: Compared with stable 1-year NT-proBNP levels, a ≥25% decrease in NT-proBNP was associated with a slower decrease in eGFR in participants with CKD (adjusted difference, 1.09%/y; 95% CI, 0.35-1.83) and without CKD (adjusted difference, 0.51%/y; 95% CI, 0.21-0.81; P = 0.4 for interaction). Meanwhile, a ≥25% increase in NT-proBNP in participants with CKD was associated with a faster decrease in eGFR (adjusted difference, -1.04%/y; 95% CI, -1.72 to -0.36) and risk of a ≥30% decrease in eGFR (adjusted odds ratio, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.96); associations were stronger in participants with CKD than in participants without CKD (P = 0.01 and P < 0.001 for interaction, respectively). Relationships were similar irrespective of the randomized BP arm in SPRINT (P > 0.2 for interactions). LIMITATIONS: Persons with diabetes and proteinuria >1 g/d were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in NT-proBNP during BP treatment are independently associated with subsequent kidney function decline, particularly in people with CKD. Future studies should assess whether routine NT-proBNP measurements may be useful in monitoring kidney risk during hypertension treatment. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker in the blood that reflects mechanical stress on the heart. Measuring NT-proBNP may be helpful in assessing the risk of long-term losses of kidney function. In this study, we investigated the association of changes in NT-proBNP with subsequent kidney function among individuals with and without chronic kidney disease. We found that increases in NT-proBNP are associated with a faster rate of decline of kidney function, independent of baseline kidney measures. The associations were more pronounced in individuals with chronic kidney disease. Our results advance the notion of considering NT-proBNP as a dynamic tool for assessing kidney disease risk.

Estimated Kidney Tubular Secretion and Kidney, Cardiovascular, and Mortality Outcomes in CKD: The Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial.

Rational & Objective: Many drugs, metabolites, and toxins are cleared by the kidneys via tubular secretion. Whether novel endogenous measures of tubular secretion provide information about kidney, cardiovascular, and mortality risk is uncertain. Study Design: Longitudinal subgroup analysis of clinical trial participants. Setting & Participants: 2,089 Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline. Exposure: Summary score incorporating urine-to-plasma ratios of 10 endogenous secretion markers measured in paired urine and plasma samples at baseline. Outcome: The primary outcome was longitudinal change in eGFR. Secondary outcomes included chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (≥50% eGFR decline or incident kidney failure requiring dialysis or kidney transplantation), a cardiovascular disease (CVD) composite (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure, or death from cardiovascular causes), and mortality. Analytical Approach: Linear mixed-effect models were used to evaluate the association between the secretion score and change in eGFR, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations with CKD progression, CVD, and mortality. Results: At baseline, mean age was 73 ± 9 years and eGFR was 46 ± 11 mL/min/1.73 m2. During a median follow-up of 3.3 years, mean change in eGFR was -1.44% per year, and 72 CKD progression events, 272 CVD events, and 144 deaths occurred. In multivariable analyses, lower secretion score was associated with faster eGFR decline and greater risk of CKD progression, CVD, and mortality. After further adjustment for baseline eGFR and albuminuria, each 1-standard deviation lower secretion score was associated with faster eGFR decline (-0.65% per year; 95% CI, -0.84% to -0.46%), but not CKD progression (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.96-1.58), CVD (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.18), or mortality (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.74-1.09). The secretion score association with eGFR decline appeared stronger in participants with baseline eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (P for interaction < 0.001). Limitations: Persons with diabetes and proteinuria >1 g/d were excluded. Conclusions: Among SPRINT participants with CKD, lower estimated tubular secretion was associated with faster eGFR decline, independent of baseline eGFR and albuminuria, but not with CKD progression, CVD, or mortality.

Clinical Risk Factors For Kidney Tubule Biomarker Abnormalities Among Hypertensive Adults With Reduced eGFR in the SPRINT Trial.

BACKGROUND: Urine biomarkers of kidney tubule health may distinguish aspects of kidney damage that cannot be captured by current glomerular measures. Associations of clinical risk factors with specific kidney tubule biomarkers have not been evaluated in detail. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial among 2,436 participants with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Associations between demographic and clinical characteristics with urine biomarkers of kidney tubule health were evaluated using simultaneous multivariable linear regression of selected variables. RESULTS: Each standard deviation higher age (9 years) was associated with 13% higher levels of chitinase-3-like protein-1 (YKL-40), indicating higher levels of tubulointerstitial inflammation and repair. Men had 31% higher levels of alpha-1 microglobulin and 16% higher levels of beta-2 microglobulin, reflecting worse tubule resorptive function. Black race was associated with significantly higher levels of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (12%) and lower kidney injury molecule-1 (26%) and uromodulin (22%). Each standard deviation (SD) higher systolic blood pressure (SBP) (16 mmHg) was associated with 10% higher beta-2 microglobulin and 10% higher alpha-1 microglobulin, reflecting lower tubule resorptive function. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and demographic characteristics, such as race, sex, and elevated SBP, are associated with unique profiles of tubular damage, which could reflect under-recognized patterns of kidney tubule disease among persons with decreased eGFR.

Markers of Kidney Tubular Secretion and Risk of Adverse Events in SPRINT Participants with CKD.

BACKGROUND: Kidney tubular secretion is an essential mechanism for clearing many common antihypertensive drugs and other metabolites and toxins. It is unknown whether novel measures of tubular secretion are associated with adverse events (AEs) during hypertension treatment. METHODS: Among 2089 SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants with baseline eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, we created a summary secretion score by averaging across the standardized spot urine-to-plasma ratios of ten novel endogenous tubular secretion measures, with lower urine-to-plasma ratios reflecting worse tubular secretion. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between the secretion score and risk of a composite of prespecified serious AEs (hypotension, syncope, bradycardia, AKI, electrolyte abnormalities, and injurious falls). The follow-up protocol for SPRINT routinely assessed two laboratory monitoring AEs (hyperkalemia and hypokalemia). RESULTS: Overall, 30% of participants experienced at least one AE during a median follow-up of 3.0 years. In multivariable models adjusted for eGFR and albuminuria, lower (worse) secretion scores at baseline were associated with greater risk of the composite AE outcome (hazard ratio per 1-SD lower secretion score, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.27). In analyses of the individual AEs, lower secretion score was associated with significantly greater risk of AKI, serious electrolyte abnormalities, and ambulatory hyperkalemia. Associations were similar across randomized treatment assignment groups. CONCLUSION: Among SPRINT participants with CKD, worse tubular secretion was associated with greater risk of AEs, independent of eGFR and albuminuria.

Direction- and Angle-Assisted Buttonhole Cannulation of Arteriovenous Fistula in Hemodialysis Patients: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Arteriovenous fistula cannulation with the buttonhole technique is often preferred by patients but has been associated with an increased infection risk. Guidelines disagree on whether it should be abandoned, thus we assessed a technologically simple method to facilitate gentler arteriovenous fistula cannulation with potentially less discomfort and damage to the epithelial lining of the buttonhole tract. STUDY DESIGN: 8-week, prospective, open-label, randomized controlled trial. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients with buttonhole tracts receiving hemodialysis at 7 dialysis centers in Norway were randomized to the intervention group (43 patients, 658 cannulations) or control group (40 patients, 611 cannulations). INTERVENTION: Direction and angle of the established buttonhole tract were marked on the forearm skin in the intervention group, whereas the control group had no structured cannulation information system. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome was successful cannulation, defined as correct placement of both blunt needles at the first attempt without needing to change needles, perform extra perforations, or reposition the needle. The secondary outcomes were patient-reported difficulty of cannulation (verbal rating scale: 1 = very easy, 6 = impossible) and intensity of pain (numeric rating scale: 0 = no pain, 10 = unbearable pain). RESULTS: After a 2-week run-in period, successful cannulation was achieved in 73.9% and 74.8% of the patients in the intervention and control groups, respectively (relative risk [RR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.87-1.12; P = 0.85). However, the probability of a difficult arterial cannulation (verbal rating scale, 3-6) was significantly lower in the intervention group (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.85; P = 0.001). There were no improvements for venous cannulations. Furthermore, the probability of a painful cannulation (numeric rating scale, 3-10) was lower in the intervention group (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.51-1.02; P = 0.06). LIMITATIONS: Unable to evaluate hard end points such as infections and thrombosis owing to the small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Marking direction and angle of cannulation did not improve cannulation success rates; however, patients more often reported an unproblematic procedure and less pain. FUNDING: None. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01536548).

Physicians' Recognition and Management of Kidney Disease: A Randomized Vignette Study Evaluating the Impact of the KDIGO 2012 CKD Classification System.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative (KDOQI) and Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) chronic kidney disease (CKD) classification systems published in 2002 and 2012, respectively, are recommended worldwide and based on strong epidemiologic data. However, their impact on CKD recognition and management is not well evaluated in clinical practice, and we therefore investigated whether they help physicians recognize and appropriately care for patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized vignette experiment with fractional factorial design based on 6 kidney-related scenarios and 3 laboratory presentation methods reflecting the CKD guidelines. Participants evaluated 1 of 3 subsets of the 18 vignettes (ie, 6 vignettes each with 4 answer alternatives). SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 249 interns, general practitioners, and residents/fellows attending postgraduate meetings and courses in Norway and the United States. INTERVENTION: Kidney-related results (serum creatinine level and urinary albumin excretion) were presented as the "minimal data" (high/low levels), KDOQI-2002 (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] reported automatically), or KDIGO-2012 (eGFR + albuminuria categorization + risk for complications) laboratory report. OUTCOME: CKD management choice by physicians. RESULTS: When kidney laboratory data were presented as the KDOQI-2002 report (automatic eGFR calculation), there was a significantly higher odds for correct patient management decisions compared with the minimal data report (OR, 1.57; P < 0.001). Additional significant improvement was obtained with the KDIGO-2012 report (OR, 2.28 for correct answer vs minimal data report [P < 0.001]; OR, 1.45 compared to KDOQI-2002 report [P = 0.005]). The KDIGO classification system improved physician management in 4 of the 6 clinical scenarios covering a wide range of kidney-related topics. Interaction analysis showed that general practitioners and those with 1 to 3 years of internal medicine experience had the greatest improvements with the new presentation techniques. LIMITATIONS: Physicians' management was evaluated by theoretical scenarios rather than direct patient care. CONCLUSIONS: Automatic GFR estimation, albuminuria categorization, and notification of the associated risk for complications improve most physicians` recognition and management of a wide range of CKD clinical scenarios.

Clinical Phenotypes and Long-term Prognosis in White Patients With Biopsy-Verified Hypertensive Nephrosclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertensive nephrosclerosis is considered the second most common cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but it is still an insufficiently studied and controversial disease entity. More information on the phenotype and prognosis is needed to improve clinical diagnostics and treatment. METHODS: We included all Norwegian patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) referred for kidney biopsy between 1988 and 2012 whose clinical presentation was consistent with, but not primarily suspicious for, hypertensive nephrosclerosis (n = 4920); follow-up continued until 2013. RESULTS: A total of 918 patients (19%) had biopsy-verified hypertensive nephrosclerosis (i.e., arterionephrosclerosis). Their most common biopsy indications were proteinuria (57%), low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (44%), hematuria (34%), or combinations of these indications. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that arterionephrosclerosis was significantly associated with higher age, male sex, not having diabetes, higher blood pressure, lower proteinuria, and not having hematuria (P < 0.01 for all). Body mass index, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and eGFR were not significantly associated with arterionephrosclerosis (P > 0.05 for all). The most common biopsy-verified diagnoses in patients fulfilling the clinical criteria for hypertensive nephrosclerosis were arterionephrosclerosis (40%), glomerulonephritis (22%), and interstitial nephritis (14%), reflecting that the criteria had low sensitivity (0.17) and high specificity (0.94). ESRD and mortality risks did not differ in patients with arterionephrosclerosis compared to patients with glomerulonephritis, interstitial nephritis, or other relevant diagnoses (P > 0.1 for both), whereas patients with diabetic kidney disease had a 2-fold higher risk (P < 0.001 for both). CONCLUSION: Arterionephrosclerosis is a high-risk disease, often with an atypical phenotype with proteinuria and hematuria contributing to low accuracy for current clinical criteria for hypertensive nephrosclerosis.

Implementing the European Renal Best Practice Guidelines suggests that prediction equations work well to differentiate risk of end-stage renal disease vs. death in older patients with low estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Recent European guidelines suggest using the kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) and mortality risk equation for kidney disease (MREK) to guide decisions on whether elderly patients with chronic kidney disease should be referred early for dialysis preparation. However, the concurrent use of the two risk equations has not been validated. To do so we evaluated 1,188 individuals over five years with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) under 45ml/min/1.73m2 and age over 65 years from the Norwegian population based HUNT study. Forty-two patients started renal replacement therapy and 462 died as their first clinical event. The KFRE was well calibrated (mean risk estimate 4.9% vs observed 3.5%) with high diagnostic accuracy (C-statistics 0.93). The MREK underestimated death risk in those with lower risk (mean risk estimate 30.1% vs observed 38.9%) and had moderate diagnostic accuracy (C-statistics 0.71). Only 31 individuals had estimated end stage kidney disease (ESRD) risk greater than death risk, and most experienced ESRD before death. Only two of 598 patients over 80 years old, and ten of 1,063 with eGFR 25-45ml/min/1.73m2 at baseline experienced ESRD. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that for risk adverse patients, deferring ESRD preparation may be appropriate until predicted ESRD risk exceeds predicted death risk. For those preferring a more aggressive approach, referral when eGFR is under 25 ml/min/1.73m2 may be beneficial if age remains under 80 years. Thus, the risk of ESRD is low compared to the risk of death in many older patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3b or worse, and combination of predicted ESRD and death risks, eGFR levels, age, and the patient`s valuations of harm and benefit can be helpful for deciding when to start dialysis preparations.

Gene Expression Studies and Targeted Metabolomics Reveal Disturbed Serine, Methionine, and Tyrosine Metabolism in Early Hypertensive Nephrosclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertensive nephrosclerosis is among the leading causes of end-stage renal disease, but its pathophysiology is poorly understood. We wanted to explore early metabolic changes using gene expression and targeted metabolomics analysis. METHODS: We analyzed gene expression in kidneys biopsied from 20 patients with nephrosclerosis and 31 healthy controls with an Affymetrix array. Thirty-one amino acids were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (LC-MS) in urine samples from 62 patients with clinical hypertensive nephrosclerosis and 33 age- and sex-matched healthy controls, and major findings were confirmed in an independent cohort of 45 cases and 15 controls. RESULTS: Amino acid catabolism and synthesis were strongly underexpressed in hypertensive nephrosclerosis (13- and 7-fold, respectively), and these patients also showed gene expression patterns indicating decreased fatty acid oxidation (12-fold) and increased interferon gamma (10-fold) and cellular defense response (8-fold). Metabolomics analysis revealed significant distribution differences in 11 amino acids in hypertensive nephrosclerosis, among them tyrosine, phenylalanine, dopamine, homocysteine, and serine, with 30% to 70% lower urine excretion. These findings were replicated in the independent cohort. Integrated gene-metabolite pathway analysis showed perturbations of renal dopamine biosynthesis. There were also significant differences in homocysteine/methionine homeostasis and the serine pathway, which have strong influence on 1-carbon metabolism. Several of these disturbances could be interconnected through reduced regeneration of tetrahydrofolate and tetrahydrobiopterin. CONCLUSION: Early hypertensive nephrosclerosis showed perturbations of intrarenal biosynthesis of dopamine, which regulates natriuresis and blood pressure. There were also disturbances in serine/glycine and methionine/homocysteine metabolism, which may contribute to endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, and renal fibrosis.

Adiposity and risk of decline in glomerular filtration rate: meta-analysis of individual participant data in a global consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between adiposity measures (body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio) with decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and with all cause mortality. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING: Cohorts from 40 countries with data collected between 1970 and 2017. PARTICIPANTS: Adults in 39 general population cohorts (n=5 459 014), of which 21 (n=594 496) had data on waist circumference; six cohorts with high cardiovascular risk (n=84 417); and 18 cohorts with chronic kidney disease (n=91 607). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: GFR decline (estimated GFR decline ≥40%, initiation of kidney replacement therapy or estimated GFR <10 mL/min/1.73 m2) and all cause mortality. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up of eight years, 246 607 (5.6%) individuals in the general population cohorts had GFR decline (18 118 (0.4%) end stage kidney disease events) and 782 329 (14.7%) died. Adjusting for age, sex, race, and current smoking, the hazard ratios for GFR decline comparing body mass indices 30, 35, and 40 with body mass index 25 were 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.27), 1.69 (1.51 to 1.89), and 2.02 (1.80 to 2.27), respectively. Results were similar in all subgroups of estimated GFR. Associations weakened after adjustment for additional comorbidities, with respective hazard ratios of 1.03 (0.95 to 1.11), 1.28 (1.14 to 1.44), and 1.46 (1.28 to 1.67). The association between body mass index and death was J shaped, with the lowest risk at body mass index of 25. In the cohorts with high cardiovascular risk and chronic kidney disease (mean follow-up of six and four years, respectively), risk associations between higher body mass index and GFR decline were weaker than in the general population, and the association between body mass index and death was also J shaped, with the lowest risk between body mass index 25 and 30. In all cohort types, associations between higher waist circumference and higher waist-to-height ratio with GFR decline were similar to that of body mass index; however, increased risk of death was not associated with lower waist circumference or waist-to-height ratio, as was seen with body mass index. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio are independent risk factors for GFR decline and death in individuals who have normal or reduced levels of estimated GFR.

Relationship of Estimated GFR and Albuminuria to Concurrent Laboratory Abnormalities: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis in a Global Consortium.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by abnormalities that reflect disruption in filtration, tubular, and endocrine functions of the kidney. Our aim was to explore the relationship of specific laboratory result abnormalities and hypertension with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria CKD staging framework. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional individual participant-level analyses in a global consortium. SETTING & STUDY POPULATIONS: 17 CKD and 38 general population and high-risk cohorts. SELECTION CRITERIA FOR STUDIES: Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data for eGFR and albuminuria, as well as a measurement of hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, or calcium, or hypertension. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were obtained and analyzed between July 2015 and January 2018. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We modeled the association of eGFR and albuminuria with hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, and calcium values using linear regression and with hypertension and categorical definitions of each abnormality using logistic regression. Results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: The CKD cohorts (n=254,666 participants) were 27% women and 10% black, with a mean age of 69 (SD, 12) years. The general population/high-risk cohorts (n=1,758,334) were 50% women and 2% black, with a mean age of 50 (16) years. There was a strong graded association between lower eGFR and all laboratory result abnormalities (ORs ranging from 3.27 [95% CI, 2.68-3.97] to 8.91 [95% CI, 7.22-10.99] comparing eGFRs of 15 to 29 with eGFRs of 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m2), whereas albuminuria had equivocal or weak associations with abnormalities (ORs ranging from 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99] to 1.92 [95% CI, 1.65-2.24] comparing urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 vs < 30mg/g). LIMITATIONS: Variations in study era, health care delivery system, typical diet, and laboratory assays. CONCLUSIONS: Lower eGFR was strongly associated with higher odds of multiple laboratory result abnormalities. Knowledge of risk associations might help guide management in the heterogeneous group of patients with CKD.

Serum potassium and adverse outcomes across the range of kidney function: a CKD Prognosis Consortium meta-analysis.

Aims: Both hypo- and hyperkalaemia can have immediate deleterious physiological effects, and less is known about long-term risks. The objective was to determine the risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end-stage renal disease associated with potassium levels across the range of kidney function and evaluate for consistency across cohorts in a global consortium. Methods and results: We performed an individual-level data meta-analysis of 27 international cohorts [10 general population, 7 high cardiovascular risk, and 10 chronic kidney disease (CKD)] in the CKD Prognosis Consortium. We used Cox regression followed by random-effects meta-analysis to assess the relationship between baseline potassium and adverse outcomes, adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics, overall and across strata of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. We included 1 217 986 participants followed up for a mean of 6.9 years. The average age was 55 ± 16 years, average eGFR was 83 ± 23 mL/min/1.73 m2, and 17% had moderate- to-severe increased albuminuria levels. The mean baseline potassium was 4.2 ± 0.4 mmol/L. The risk of serum potassium of >5.5 mmol/L was related to lower eGFR and higher albuminuria. The risk relationship between potassium levels and adverse outcomes was U-shaped, with the lowest risk at serum potassium of 4-4.5 mmol/L. Compared with a reference of 4.2 mmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.29] at 5.5 mmol/L and 1.49 (95% CI 1.26-1.76) at 3.0 mmol/L. Risks were similar by eGFR, albuminuria, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor use, and across cohorts. Conclusions: Outpatient potassium levels both above and below the normal range are consistently associated with adverse outcomes, with similar risk relationships across eGFR and albuminuria.

Long-term changes in albuminuria: underlying causes and future mortality risk in a 20-year prospective cohort: the Nord-Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study.

OBJECTIVE: Knowledge on how changing risk factors influence the progression of albuminuria over time is still limited. Furthermore, large population-based cohorts are needed to study the association between albuminuria change and mortality risk in nondiabetic study participants. METHODS: We evaluated changes of albuminuria in 6282 nondiabetic individuals from the Norwegian population-based Nord-Trøndelag Health study. Using three albumin/creatinine ratios (ACR), we studied the influence of cardiovascular risk factors on ACR change from baseline to follow-up 11 years later. We evaluated the next 8-year mortality risk by using flexible parametric methods to identify nonlinear main effects and their two-way interactions. RESULTS: Mean albuminuria increased significantly over 11 years (1.82-3.02 mg/mmol, P < 0.0001), but two-thirds of individuals had stable levels (ΔACR -1.40 to 1.40 mg/mmol). Higher age, ACR, and SBP as well as smoking and lower glomerular filtration rate at baseline were associated with increasing albuminuria. Study participants in the upper quartile of the increasing group had mean adjusted hazard ratio 1.31 (P = 0.004) for all-cause mortality compared with those with stable ACR. Those with decreasing ACR also had increased mortality, but the risk was strongly attenuated when adjusting for comorbidity. It also decreased the first 3 years before increasing. There was a strong interaction between baseline ACR and ΔACR. Increasing albuminuria had strongest effect on mortality in study participants with moderately increased baseline values. CONCLUSION: Both increasing and decreasing albuminuria are significant independent predictors of mortality in nondiabetic individuals, but must be interpreted in light of baseline values. Cutoffs and clinical usefulness in nondiabetic study participants should be further investigated.

Long-term trends in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and the influence of cardiovascular risk factors in Norway.

Surveillance of chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence over time and information on how changing risk factors influence this trend are needed to evaluate the effects of general practice and public health interventions. Because very few studies addressed this, we studied the total adult population of a demographically stable county representative of Norway using cross-sectional studies 10 years apart (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)2 and Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)3, 65,237 and 50,586 participants, respectively). Thorough quality-control procedures and comparisons of methods over time excluded analytical drift, and multiple imputations of missing data combined with nonattendance weights contributed to unbiased estimates. CKD prevalence remained stable in Norway from 1995 through 1997 (11.3%) to 2006 through 2008 (11.1%). The association of survey period with CKD prevalence was modified by a strong decrease in blood pressure, more physical activity, and lower cholesterol levels. Without these improvements, a 2.8, 0.7, and 0.6 percentage points higher CKD prevalence could have been expected, respectively. In contrast, the prevalence of diabetes and obesity increased moderately, but the proportion of diabetic patients with CKD decreased significantly (from 33.4% to 28.6%). A CKD prevalence of 1 percentage point lower would have been expected without these changes. Thus, CKD prevalence remained stable in Norway for more than a decade in association with marked improvements in blood pressure, lipid levels, and physical activity and despite modest increases in diabetes and obesity.

Influence of Gender and Repeated Urine Sampling on the Association of Albuminuria with Coronary Events.

BACKGROUND: The association between albuminuria and coronary heart disease (CHD) is well-known, but uncertainties related to day-to-day variability and effect modification of gender complicate the risk assessment process. This study evaluates the associations of CHD with albuminuria level in men and women based on the number of urine samples. METHODS: Nine thousand one hundred and fifty-eight adults provided 3 urine samples and were followed for 14 years in the population-based HUNT-2 cohort study. The association of myocardial infarction or coronary death with different albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) cut-offs, based on gender and number of positive ACRs, were estimated by hazard ratios (HRs) and adjusted for by Framingham variables. RESULTS: Associations between ACR and CHD were similar in men and women. For example, HRs for moderately increased (3.0≤ ACR ≤30.0 mg/mmol) vs. normal albuminuria (ACR <1.0 mg/mmol) were 1.40 (95% CI 1.27-2.03) and 1.61 (95% CI 1.15-1.71) respectively, (psex-equality = 0.3). However, median intra-individual day-to-day ACR coefficient of variation was 22.4% in women vs. 17.5% in men (p < 0.001). Two or 3 positive ACRs were required to establish a significant association with CHD at levels below 4.0 mg/mmol in women, while one positive ACR implied a significant association at all levels in men. Based on receiver-operating-characteristics curves, the Youden index suggested possible equal cut-offs for women (1.12 mg/mmol) and men (0.88 mg/mmol), p = 0.06. CONCLUSIONS: There were no significant gender differences in the association between albuminuria and coronary events. However, women had increased intra-individual albuminuria variability compared to men, necessitating several positive urine samples if mildly increased albuminuria is used in coronary risk evaluation.

Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. STUDY SELECTION: Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P = .04 and P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.

Urinary proteomics in chronic kidney disease: diagnosis and risk of progression beyond albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: The contrast between a high prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the low incidence of end-stage renal disease highlights the need for new biomarkers of progression beyond albuminuria testing. Urinary proteomics is a promising method, but more studies focusing on progression rate and patients with hypertensive nephropathy are needed. RESULTS: We analyzed urine samples with capillary electrophoresis coupled to a mass-spectrometer from 18 well characterized patients with CKD stage 4-5 (of whom six with hypertensive nephropathy) and 17 healthy controls. Classification scores based on a previously developed panel of 273 urinary peptides were calculated and compared to urine albumin dipstick results. Urinary proteomics classified CKD with a sensitivity of 0.95 and specificity of 1.00. Overall diagnostic accuracy (area under ROC curve) was 0.98, which was better than for albuminuria (0.85, p = 0.02). Results for hypertensive nephropathy were similar to other CKD diagnoses. Adding the proteomic score to an albuminuria model improved detection of rapid kidney function decline (>4 ml/min/1.73 m(2) per year) substantially: area under ROC curve increased from 0.762 to 0.909 (p = 0.042), and 38% of rapid progressors were correctly reclassified to a higher risk and 55% of slow progressors were correctly reclassified to a lower risk category. Reduced excretion of collagen types I-III, uromodulin, and other indicators of interstitial inflammation, fibrosis and tubular dysfunction were associated with CKD diagnosis and rapid progression. Patients with hypertensive nephropathy displayed the same findings as other types of CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary proteomic analyses had a high diagnostic accuracy for CKD, including hypertensive nephropathy, and strongly improved identification of patients with rapid kidney function decline beyond albuminuria testing.

The accuracy of predicting cardiovascular death based on one compared to several albuminuria values.

Albuminuria is a well-documented predictor of cardiovascular (CV) mortality. However, day-to-day variability is substantial, and there is no consensus on the number of urine samples required for risk prediction. To resolve this we followed 9158 adults from the population-based Nord-Trøndelag Health Study for 13 years (Second HUNT Study). The predictive performance of models for CV death based on Framingham variables plus 1 versus 3 albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) was assessed in participants who provided 3 urine samples. There was no improvement in discrimination, calibration, or reclassification when using ACR as a continuous variable. Difference in Akaike information criterion indicated an uncertain improvement in overall fit for the model with the mean of 3 urine samples. Criterion analyses on dichotomized albuminuria information sustained 1 sample as sufficient for ACR levels down to 1.7 mg/mmol. At lower levels, models with 3 samples had a better overall fit. Likewise, in survival analyses, 1 sample was enough to show a significant association to CV mortality for ACR levels above 1.7 mg/mmol (adjusted hazard ratio 1.37; 95% CI 1.15-1.63). For lower ACR levels, 2 or 3 positive urine samples were needed for significance. Thus, multiple urine sampling did not improve CV death prediction when using ACR as a continuous variable. For cutoff ACR levels of 1.0 mg/mmol or less, additional urine samples were required, and associations were stronger with increasing number of samples.