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1.
AIDS Care ; 32(11): 1343-1352, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31809594

ABSTRACT

Hospitalization represents a unique opportunity to re-engage out-of-care individuals, improve HIV outcomes and reduce health disparities. Electronic health records of HIV-positive individuals hospitalized at an urban, public hospital between September 2013 and December 2015 were reviewed. In October 2014, a multidisciplinary HIV consult team (HIV specialist, case manager, and transitional care nurse (TCN)) was implemented. Engagement in care, retention in care and virologic suppression before and after hospitalization were compared between the pre- and post-intervention periods and by treatment received. Of 1056 inpatient admissions (pre-intervention = 571, post-intervention = 485), the majority were among males (69%) and racial/ethnic minorities (55% Black, 23% Hispanic). Each step of the HIV care cascade increased after hospitalization for both time periods (p < 0.01 for each comparison). Those who received the HIV consult (N = 131) or consult + TCN (N = 128) had greater increases in engagement in care (23.7% and 30.5% v. 11.1%, p = 0.04 and <0.01 respectively) and virologic suppression (28.3% and 29.7% v.7.1%, p <0.01 for both) than the no intervention (N = 225) subgroup. Hospitalized patients with HIV have low rates of engagement in care, retention in care and virologic suppression, though all three outcomes improved after hospitalization. A multidisciplinary transitions team improved care engagement and virologic suppression in those who received the intervention.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Inpatients , Interdisciplinary Communication , Patient Care Team , Black or African American , Aged , Female , HIV Infections/drug therapy , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Medicare , United States
2.
J Viral Hepat ; 18(11): 785-91, 2011 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20950406

ABSTRACT

Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) is more prevalent than human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, but more public health resources are allocated to HIV than to HCV. Given shared risk factors and epidemiology, we compared accuracy of health beliefs about HIV and HCV in an at-risk community. Between 2002 and 2003, we surveyed a random patient sample at a primary care clinic in New York. The survey was organized as domains of Common Sense Model of Self-Regulation: causes ('sharing needles'), timeline/consequences ('remains in body for life', 'causes cancer') and controllability ('I can avoid this illness', 'medications may cure this illness'). We compared differences in accuracy of beliefs about HIV and HCV and used multivariable linear regression to identify factors associated with relative accuracy of beliefs. One hundred and twenty-two subjects completed the survey (response rate 42%). Mean overall health belief accuracy was 12/15 questions (80%) for HIV vs 9/15 (60%) for HCV (P < 0.001). Belief accuracy was significantly different across all domains. Within the causes domain, 60% accurately believed sharing needles a risk factor for HCV compared to 92% for HIV (P < 0.001). Within the timeline/consequences domain, 42% accurately believed HCV results in lifelong infection compared to 89% for HIV (P < 0.001). Within the controllability domain, 25% accurately believed that there is a potential cure for HCV. Multivariable linear regression revealed female gender as significantly associated with greater health belief accuracy for HIV. Thus, study participants had significantly less accurate health beliefs about HCV than about HIV. Targeting inaccuracies might improve public health interventions to foster healthier behaviours and better hepatitis C outcomes.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , HIV-1 , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Urban Population , Adult , Aged , Data Collection , Female , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Public Health , Risk-Taking , Surveys and Questionnaires
3.
Neurology ; 68(3): 187-94, 2007 Jan 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17224571

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess how appropriateness of and indications for carotid endarterectomy (CEA) have changed following the publication of several large international randomized controlled trials (RCTs) designed to rationalize use of CEA. METHODS: The New York Carotid Artery Surgery Study (NYCAS) is a population-based cohort study of all CEAs performed on elderly patients from January 1998 through June 1999 in New York State. Detailed clinical data were abstracted from medical charts to assess indications for and appropriateness of surgery using a list of 1,557 indications for CEA developed by national experts using RAND appropriateness methods. Deaths and strokes within 30 days of surgery were ascertained and confirmed by two physicians. RESULTS: Among the 9,588 patients, the mean age was 74.6 years and 93.6% had 70 to 99% carotid stenosis. Nearly three-quarters of patients (72.3%) underwent CEA for asymptomatic stenosis, 18.6% for TIA, and 9.1% for stroke. Overall, 87.1% of operations were done for appropriate reasons, 4.3% for uncertain reasons, and 8.6% for inappropriate reasons (vs 32% inappropriate before the RCTs, p < 0.0001). Among procedures judged inappropriate, the most common reasons were high comorbidity in asymptomatic patients (62.2%), operating after a major stroke (14.2%), or for minimal stenosis (10.5%). Among asymptomatic patients, those with high comorbidity had over twice the risk of death or stroke compared to those without high comorbidity (7.13% vs 2.69%, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Since publication of the randomized controlled trials, there has been a reduction in the proportion of patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for inappropriate reasons. The shift toward many asymptomatic patients undergoing CEA is concerning because the net benefit from surgery for these patients is low and is reduced further for patients with high comorbidity.


Subject(s)
Carotid Artery Diseases/mortality , Carotid Artery Diseases/surgery , Clinical Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Endarterectomy, Carotid/mortality , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/statistics & numerical data , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/statistics & numerical data , Stroke/mortality , Stroke/prevention & control , Aged , Evidence-Based Medicine/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Male , New York/epidemiology , Prevalence , Risk Assessment , Survival Rate , Treatment Outcome
5.
J Gen Intern Med ; 16(9): 599-605, 2001 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11556940

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: One of the major factors influencing length of stay for patients with community-acquired pneumonia is the timing of conversion from intravenous to oral antibiotics. We measured physician attitudes and beliefs about the antibiotic switch decision and assessed physician characteristics associated with practice beliefs. DESIGN: Written survey assessing attitudes about the antibiotic conversion decision. SETTING: Seven teaching and non-teaching hospitals in Pittsburgh, Pa. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred forty-five generalist and specialist attending physicians who manage pneumonia in 7 hospitals. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Factors rated as "very important" to the antibiotic conversion decision were: absence of suppurative infection (93%), ability to maintain oral intake (79%), respiratory rate at baseline (64%), no positive blood cultures (63%), normal temperature (62%), oxygenation at baseline (55%), and mental status at baseline (50%). The median thresholds at which physicians believed a typical patient could be converted to oral therapy were: temperature < or =100 degrees F (37.8 degrees C), respiratory rate < or =20 breaths/minute, heart rate < or =100 beats/minute, systolic blood pressure > or =100 mm Hg, and room air oxygen saturation > or =90%. Fifty-eight percent of physicians felt that "patients should be afebrile for 24 hours before conversion to oral antibiotics," and 19% said, "patients should receive a standard duration of intravenous antibiotics." In univariate analyses, pulmonary and infectious diseases physicians were the most predisposed towards early conversion to oral antibiotics, and other medical specialists were the least predisposed, with generalists being intermediate (P <.019). In multivariate analyses, practice beliefs were associated with age, inpatient care activities, attitudes about guidelines, and agreeableness on a personality inventory scale. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians believed that patients could be switched to oral antibiotics once vital signs and mental status had stabilized and oral intake was possible. However, there was considerable variation in several antibiotic practice beliefs. Guidelines and pathways to streamline antibiotic therapy should include educational strategies to address some of these differences in attitudes.


Subject(s)
Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Decision Making , Pneumonia/drug therapy , Practice Patterns, Physicians' , Administration, Oral , Adult , Analysis of Variance , Community-Acquired Infections/drug therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Female , Health Care Surveys , Humans , Length of Stay , Male , Middle Aged
6.
Arch Intern Med ; 160(18): 2799-803, 2000 Oct 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11025790

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Compliance with medical therapy is often compromised because patients cannot afford to pay for medications. Inadequate physician knowledge of drug costs may unwittingly contribute to this problem. OBJECTIVE: To measure attitudes about prescribing and knowledge of medication costs and compare differences among attending physicians and residents. DESIGN/PARTICIPANTS: Written survey of internal medicine house staff and general medicine attending physicians in an urban hospital-based primary care center. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-four of 189 physicians responded (71% response rate). Seventy percent of respondents were house officers and 30% were attending physicians. Eighty-eight percent of physicians felt the cost of medicines was an important consideration in the prescribing decision, and 71% were willing to sacrifice some degree of efficacy to make drugs more affordable for their patients. However, 80% often felt unaware of the actual costs. Only 33% had easy access to drug cost data, and only 13% had been formally educated about drug costs. Regarding insurance coverage, 94% of physicians gave strong consideration to the cost of medications when patients were self-paying, 68% when patients had Medicare, and 30% when patients had Medicaid or were participants in a health maintenance organization with a prescription plan. Physicians' estimates of the cost of a month's supply of 33 commonly used medications were accurate in 45% of cases, too low for 40%, and too high for 15%. The costs of brand-name and expensive drugs were most likely to be underestimated. House officers were less cost-conscious than attending physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians were predisposed to being cost-conscious in their prescribing habits, but lacked accurate knowledge about actual costs and insurance coverage of drugs. Interventions are needed to educate physicians about drug costs and provide them with reliable, easily accessible cost information in real-world practice.


Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , Drug Costs , Drug Prescriptions/economics , Adult , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Drug Costs/statistics & numerical data , Family Practice/education , Female , Humans , Internal Medicine/education , Internship and Residency , Male , Medical Staff, Hospital , Middle Aged , New York City
7.
Arch Intern Med ; 160(1): 98-104, 2000 Jan 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10632310

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Adherence with clinical practice guidelines is highly variable. Reasons for their inconsistent performance have not been well studied. OBJECTIVE: To determine the patient, system, and physician factors that may explain why physicians may not follow guidelines. METHODS: We used chart review and physician surveys to measure adherence with an actively implemented guideline to reduce hospitalizations for patients coming to the emergency department with community-acquired pneumonia. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with guideline nonadherence. RESULTS: Overall nonadherence with the guideline was 43.6%, with 71 of 163 low-risk patients with pneumonia being hospitalized despite the recommendation for outpatient therapy. In univariate analyses, nonadherence to the guideline was more likely for patients who were aged 65 years or older, were male, were employed, and had multilobar disease or other comorbid conditions (P<.05). Active involvement of a primary care physician in the admission decision also increased nonadherence (odds ratio, 4.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-11.0). Physicians with more pneumonia experience were more likely not to follow the guideline (P<.001). In multivariate models, the odds of nonadherence were 2 to 3 times greater when patients were 65 years or older, were male, or had multilobar disease, or the primary care physician was involved in the triage decision (P<.05). Physicians' reasons for admission were the presence of active comorbidities (55%), the primary care physician's wish for hospitalization (41%), the presence of worse pneumonia than the guideline indicated (36%), patient preference (17%), and inadequate home support (16%). CONCLUSIONS: Nonadherence to a pneumonia guideline was associated with a variety of patient, system, and physician factors. Guideline implementation strategies should take into account the heterogeneous forces that can influence physician decision making.


Subject(s)
Emergency Service, Hospital/standards , Guideline Adherence/statistics & numerical data , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia/therapy , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Community-Acquired Infections/therapy , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Medical Records , New York , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/standards , Retrospective Studies , Risk , Risk Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires
8.
Qual Manag Health Care ; 9(1): 49-58, 2000.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11185882

ABSTRACT

To explore managed care plans' efforts to assess and improve quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries, the authors surveyed managed care plans with risk contracts for Medicare beneficiaries in 20 large metropolitan areas in January 1998. The survey inquired about: (1) the health plans' efforts to assess and improve quality of care for specific underuse, overuse, and misuse problems; (2) how the health plans assessed functional status of enrollees, and (3) the quality improvement program they believed had the greatest impact on the health of enrollees. The managed care plans reported a heterogeneous mix of quality improvement activities ranging from poorly developed to very sophisticated. The vast majority of the more sophisticated programs addressed problems with underuse of services rather than overuse or misuse.


Subject(s)
Managed Care Programs/standards , Medicare/standards , Quality Assurance, Health Care/organization & administration , Aged , Humans , Managed Care Programs/organization & administration , Quality Indicators, Health Care , Surveys and Questionnaires , United States , Urban Health Services/standards
9.
J Gen Intern Med ; 14(11): 688-94, 1999 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10571717

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess physicians' response to implementation of an emergency department (ED) pneumonia practice guideline and determine if the guideline changed physicians' knowledge and attitudes about pneumonia care. DESIGN: Prospective intervention study with cross-sectional and longitudinal physician surveys. SETTING: An urban, university teaching hospital ED. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred forty physicians who were responsible for the triage of at least one of 166 patients presenting to the ED with community-acquired pneumonia. MEASUREMENTS: Physician characteristics, attitudes about pneumonia care and guidelines, and ratings of guideline helpfulness and effects on patient care were obtained by self administered questionnaire before, during, and after a yearlong intervention. MAIN RESULTS: More than 73% of the physicians reported the guideline as helpful and more than 94% wanted it to be continued in the future. Most reported that the guideline would decrease costs and improve quality without any increase in adverse outcomes. Two thirds said they were more likely to treat patients with pneumonia as outpatients in the future because of the guideline. Among the 58 physicians with matching preintervention and postintervention survey data, the guideline decreased the beliefs that "all patients> 65 years old with pneumonia should be admitted," from 52% to 14% ( p <. 001), and that "patients with pneumonia have a> 15% mortality rate," from 11% to 5% ( p <.007). The intervention did not significantly change general attitudes about practice guidelines. House officers rated the guideline as more helpful than attending physicians ( p <. 02). CONCLUSIONS: This locally developed, actively implemented guideline was well regarded by physicians. Guidelines can change practice and also alter underlying knowledge and attitudes about disease management. They may be most useful to those with less experience.


Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Physicians/psychology , Pneumonia/therapy , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Cross-Sectional Studies , Data Collection , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , Medical Staff, Hospital , Pneumonia/mortality , Prospective Studies
11.
Arch Intern Med ; 158(12): 1350-6, 1998 Jun 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9645830

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Patients with community-acquired pneumonia who are at low risk for short-term mortality can be identified using a validated prediction rule, the Pneumonia Severity Index. Such patients should be candidates for outpatient treatment, yet many are hospitalized. OBJECTIVE: To assess a program to safely increase the proportion of low-risk patients with pneumonia treated at home. METHODS: The intervention provided physicians with the Pneumonia Severity Index score and corresponding mortality risk for eligible patients and offered enhanced visiting nurse services and the antibiotic clarithromycin. Prospectively enrolled, consecutive low-risk patients with pneumonia presenting to an emergency department during the intervention period (n = 166) were compared with consecutive retrospective controls (n = 147) identified during the prior year. A second group of 208 patients from the study hospital who participated in the Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team cohort study served as controls for patient-reported measures of recovery. RESULTS: There were no significant baseline differences between patients in the intervention and control groups. The percentage initially treated as outpatients increased from 42% in the control period to 57% in the intervention period (36% relative increase; 95% confidence interval, 8%-72%; P = .01). However, more outpatients during the intervention period were subsequently admitted to the study hospital (9% vs 0%). When any admission to the study hospital within 4 weeks of presentation was considered, there was a trend toward more patients receiving all their care as outpatients in the intervention group (42% vs 52%; 25% relative increase; 95% confidence interval -2% to 59%; P = .07). No patient in the intervention group died in the 4-week follow-up period. Symptom resolution and functional status were not diminished. Satisfaction with overall care was similar, but patients treated in the outpatient setting during the intervention were less frequently satisfied with the initial treatment location than comparable control patients (71% vs 90%; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Use of a risk-based algorithm coupled with enhanced outpatient services effectively identified low-risk patients with community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department and safely increased the proportion initially treated as outpatients. Outpatients in the intervention group were more likely to be subsequently admitted than were controls, lessening the net impact of the intervention.


Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care , Community-Acquired Infections/therapy , Pneumonia/therapy , Program Evaluation , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Algorithms , Boston , Case-Control Studies , Community-Acquired Infections/microbiology , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia/microbiology , Retrospective Studies , Staphylococcal Infections/therapy , Streptococcal Infections/therapy , Treatment Outcome
12.
JAMA ; 279(18): 1452-7, 1998 May 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9600479

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Many groups have developed guidelines to shorten hospital length of stay in pneumonia in order to decrease costs, but the length of time until a patient hospitalized with pneumonia becomes clinically stable has not been established. OBJECTIVE: To describe the time to resolution of abnormalities in vital signs, ability to eat, and mental status in patients with community-acquired pneumonia and assess clinical outcomes after achieving stability. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study. SETTING: Three university and 1 community teaching hospital in Boston, Mass, Pittsburgh, Pa, and Halifax, Nova Scotia. PATIENTS: Six hundred eighty-six adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to resolution of vital signs, ability to eat, mental status, hospital length of stay, and admission to an intensive care, coronary care, or telemetry unit. RESULTS: The median time to stability was 2 days for heart rate (< or =100 beats/min) and systolic blood pressure (> or =90 mm Hg), and 3 days for respiratory rate (< or =24 breaths/min), oxygen saturation (> or =90%), and temperature (< or =37.2 degrees C [99 degrees F]). The median time to overall clinical stability was 3 days for the most lenient definition of stability and 7 days for the most conservative definition. Patients with more severe cases of pneumonia at presentation took longer to reach stability. Once stability was achieved, clinical deterioration requiring intensive care, coronary care, or telemetry monitoring occurred in 1% of cases or fewer. Between 65% to 86% of patients stayed in the hospital more than 1 day after reaching stability, and fewer than 29% to 46% were converted to oral antibiotics within 1 day of stability, depending on the definition of stability. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of time to stability in pneumonia and explicit criteria for defining stability can provide an evidence-based estimate of optimal length of stay, and outline a clinically sensible approach to improving the efficiency of inpatient management.


Subject(s)
Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Pneumonia/therapy , Adult , Boston , Cohort Studies , Community-Acquired Infections/therapy , Female , Hospitals, Teaching/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals, University/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Nova Scotia , Pennsylvania , Pneumonia/physiopathology , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Prospective Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Time Factors
13.
Ann Intern Med ; 128(4): 319; author reply 319-20, 1998 Feb 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9471938
14.
JAMA ; 278(20): 1677-81, 1997 Nov 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-9388087

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: Nearly all managed care plans rely on a physician "gatekeeper" to control use of specialty, hospital, and other expensive services. Gatekeeping is intended to reduce costs while maintaining or improving quality of care by increasing coordination and prevention and reducing duplicative or inappropriate care. Whether gatekeeping achieves these goals remains largely unproven. OBJECTIVE: To assess physicians' attitudes about the effects of gatekeeping compared with traditional care on administrative work, quality of patient care, appropriateness of resource use, and cost. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of primary care physicians SETTING: Outpatient facilities in metropolitan Boston, Mass. PARTICIPANTS: All physicians who served as both primary care gatekeepers and traditional Blue Cross/Blue Shield providers for the employees of Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston. Of the 330 physicians surveyed, 202 (61%) responded. OUTCOMES MEASURES: Physician ratings of the effects of gatekeeping on 21 aspects of care, including administrative work, physician-patient interactions, decision making, appropriateness of resource use, cost, and quality of care. RESULTS: Physicians reported that gatekeeping (compared with traditional care) had a positive effect on control of costs, frequency, and appropriateness of preventive services and knowledge of a patient's overall care (P<.001). They also felt that gatekeeping increased paperwork and telephone calls and negatively affected the overall quality of care, access to specialists, ability to order expensive tests and procedures, freedom in clinical decisions, time spent with patients, physician-patient relationships, and appropriate use of hospitalizations and laboratory tests (P<.001). Overall, 32% of physicians rated gatekeeping as better than traditional care, 40% the same, 21% gatekeeping as worse, and 7% were of mixed opinion. Positive ratings of gatekeeping were associated with fewer years in clinical practice, generalist training, and experience with gatekeeping and health maintenance organization plans. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians identified both positive and negative effects of gate-keeping. Overall, 72% of physicians thought gatekeeping was better than or comparable to traditional care arrangements.


Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , Fee-for-Service Plans/standards , Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care , Physicians, Family/statistics & numerical data , Referral and Consultation/statistics & numerical data , Resource Allocation , Risk Assessment , Boston , Cross-Sectional Studies , Data Collection , Family Practice/economics , Family Practice/standards , Fee-for-Service Plans/economics , Health Care Costs , Health Care Surveys , Health Maintenance Organizations/economics , Health Maintenance Organizations/standards , Humans , Physicians, Family/classification , Physicians, Family/psychology , Quality of Health Care , Referral and Consultation/economics , Referral and Consultation/standards , Regression Analysis , Surveys and Questionnaires
15.
Ann Intern Med ; 125(6): 433-41, 1996 Sep 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-8779454

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cardiac complications after noncardiac surgery are a serious cause of illness and death. Echocardiography is being used before noncardiac surgery to assess risk for cardiac complications, but its role remains undefined. OBJECTIVE: To examine the prognostic value and operating characteristics of transthoracic echocardiography for assessing cardiac risk before noncardiac surgery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: University-affiliated Veterans Affairs medical center. PATIENTS: 339 consecutive men who were known to have or were suspected of having coronary artery disease and were scheduled for major noncardiac surgery. MEASUREMENTS: Information from detailed histories, physical examinations, and electrocardiographic and laboratory studies was routinely collected. Transthoracic echocardiography was done before surgery to assess ejection fraction, wall motion abnormalities (reported as the wall motion score [range, 5 to 25 points]), and left ventricular hypertrophy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Postoperative ischemic events (cardiac-related death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and unstable angina), congestive heart failure, and ventricular tachycardia. RESULTS: 10 patients (3%) had ischemic events; 26 (8%) had congestive heart failure; and 29 (8%) had ventricular tachycardia. No echocardiographic measurements were associated with ischemic events. In univariate analyses, an ejection fraction less than 40% was associated with all cardiac outcomes combined (odds ratio, 3.5 [95% CI, 1.8 to 6.7]), congestive heart failure (odds ratio, 3.0 [CI, 1.2 to 7.4]), and ventricular tachycardia (odds ratio, 2.6 [CI, 1.1 to 6.2]). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for known clinical risk factors, an ejection fraction less than 40% was a significant predictor of all outcomes combined (odds ratio, 2.5 [CI, 1.2 to 5.0]) but not congestive heart failure (odds ratio, 2.1 [CI, 0.7 to 6.0]) and ventricular tachycardia [corrected] (odds ratio, 1.8 [CI, 0.7 to 4.7]). Wall motion score was a univariate predictor of all cardiac outcomes (odds ratio for each 3-unit increase, 1.6 [CI, 1.3 to 2.1]) and ventricular tachycardia (odds ratio, 1.6 [CI, 1.2 to 2.2]) but was only a multivariable risk factor for all events (odds ratio, 1.3 [CI, 1.0 to 1.7]). An ejection fraction less than 40% had a sensitivity of 0.28 to 0.31 and a specificity of 0.87 to 0.89 for all categories of adverse outcomes. Likelihood ratios for ejection fraction had poor operating characteristics. Adding echocardiographic information to predictive models that contained known clinical risk factors did not alter sensitivity, specificity, or predictive values in clincally important ways. CONCLUSIONS: The data did not support the use of transthoracic echocardiography for the assessment of cardiac risk before noncardiac surgery. Echocardiographic measurements had limited prognostic value and suboptimal operating characteristics.


Subject(s)
Cardiovascular Diseases/complications , Echocardiography , Postoperative Complications , Preoperative Care , Surgical Procedures, Operative , Aged , Analysis of Variance , Echocardiography/methods , Humans , Likelihood Functions , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Predictive Value of Tests , Risk Assessment , Sensitivity and Specificity , Treatment Outcome
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